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Starting from the very presumption that this match is very important for both teams, the margin still seems to high for a point or two. Zalgiris need the win in order to leave some theoretical chance for the quarter-finals, and Barca will try to take over Real's first place in the group. Further on, Zalgiris are offensively limited, and depend on Anderson's mood (who, by the way, isn't in some perfect shape lately). So it's not surprising they'll be focusing on the defense. How good is it they've shown a lot of times this season, and especially in their home hall where they conceded 69.9 points on average. They left one Real at 68 in their first head-to-head, Nhizny at 63, UNICS at 71... Only Real (88) and Sassari (79) scored somewhat more in the rematches. They have 7 out of 10 unders on this margin. They went over when they conceded more and when they crushed Nhizny. Barca, in writing, has the best defense in Europe, but sometimes they forget to play it. Their coach was furious after the Valencia fiasco where they conceded 93 points, and today I expect them to be strongly on their feet, and feisty. So I don't see this over the set margin. Details

Mures won the first duel of these teams by 21 point, in a blowout game that still did no go over 150 points, staying at 145. I expect a far closer game today, which is also be more important for both teams. Energia and Mures are fighting for third place, a position among the top four teams in regular season, which get the home court advantage in the playoff quarterfinal. Both teams have been playing very good defense lately. Energia limited opponents to under 68 points in five of their last six games, with the opposing team including Steaua, who usually score 85 in league games. Mures went through a renaissance under new coach Prakuraitis, and can win through defense and offense equally, but mostly do it through defense since the Lithuanian took the helm. They limited Ploiesti to 74, Steaua and Oradea to 65, and allowed slightly more in games where offense won the match (Sibiu, Timba). I see this as primarily a duel of two defensively strong teams, the stakes are huge and I don't see this going over this margin. Details

Roanne proved how powerful they are when nearly complete last round when playing great defense and crushing Souffel to only 39 points! This round, they will be able to count on center Jackson again. That means Brouillaud's team will be complete for the first time since December. I don't expected them to annihilate Denain like Souffel, of course, but they should be able to cover this narrow handicap. They beat Denain by 11 points in the first h2h away, in the Leaders Cup second-leg game away by five points. I don't think they will repeat the mistakes from Leaders Cup first leg game when hey lost by 7 points home. Roanne's confidence is running high and they should be able to get back at the opponents who lost by 7 and 11 points home in the league: Before crushing Bouzalac home, they were on a 5-game losing run. Denain lost 5 out of the last 6 games home, convincing this margin only against Saint-Quentin away (lost by two points). Details

Even with their best player Voskuil playing, Biella didn't do well in away matches. The coach says it's because of their youth and inexperience, there are only a few older players in the roster, and a few talented youngsters with bright future ahead. But, the present moment shows that Biella have 3-7 in away matches in the league. They did make some progress lately, but going to Sicily is not easy, no matter what the sport. Look at what a mediocre Barcellona (Sicilian second league club) do at home. Agrigento aren't as convincing, they've got 6-4 ratio, but won four out of last six, and when they were winning at home this season, they always covered this handicap. Their only home blunder was the last match against Trieste, but that means they'll be more careful now. I think this is even worth the six, if Voskuil won't play, but even like this, it's a firm 5/10 because I think the chances of him playing are about 10%, 14% (he didn't practice this whole week, he's got sore throat, and his shoulder and ankle are injured). This match is important for both sides, but Biella are basically safe in the playoff, and I wouldn't be surprised if Corbani spared Voskuil for more important matches in the playoff. Agrigento are still not sure if they'll get to the playoff, so they're definitely more motivated. Details

Igokea improved immensely when Lukajić came to the bench, and their offense bloomed with the great Canadian shooter Heslip's arrival, and Čakarević's recovery. Their face was a lot different in the last rounds compared to what they were showing for most of the season. They scored 83 to Olimpija, 80 to MZT, 92 to Levski, and 81 to Cibona in the last four rounds. Now, you might say Zvezda are a different dimension. True, but they don't have any motivation whatsoever today. Barca are coming on Thursday, and they'll just do the job here. I simply don't see them pumped up in the defense because there's no need to be. In circumstances like that, Igokea with over 72 points seems like a good bet. Details

Too many factors indicate an under result in this game for me to miss this. The arrival of Aščerić to lead Lille improved their defense tremendously, and they've gone over this margin only once since he took over, at home against Poitiers. That's one in nine games! Of course, I count the two that stayed under in regular time as unders, and they went over because of extra time. Statistically speaking, Monaco are not much of an under team, with 12 unders and 13 overs in the season, but they're still a primarily defense oriented team and base a lot of their game on a tough defense. It is no accident that they're the fourth best defense in the league with 71.5 points allowed to opponents on average. Their prior match was also a war, ending at 140, and I expect a similar outcome here, as the match is important for both teams. Lille are trying to get as far away as possible from the danger zone, Monaco are fighting for the top. The away team have changed coaches, but from what I could find I figure Mitrović is also a defense focused guys, who will certainly avoid losing his first match. This in turn means a serious attitude and disciplined game and tactics. In other words, cautious and defense focused. Details

Last prediction was on Jankunas, and today is a "no brainer", as the Americans would put it. Zalgiris are missing both centers, Javtokas and Gudaitis. Songaila will stand in for number five, and since he can't do that alone because he's 36 years old, part of it will fall down to Vene or young Tarolis. That leaves Jankunas on number four alone. It's more probable that coach Krapikas will rotate the more experienced Vene on number five together with Songail, and Tarolis with Nakunas on number four, so that again means an almost sure 30 minutes, and I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out to be 40. Without those conditions Jankunas is still the second scorer of the team after Anderson, and even though Banic and King will defend them, such a number of minutes could take them into an over. The margin went from the initial 6/10, which I would take with 6/10, and I'm now going with a unit less. Details

This margin might have been realistic early in the season when these two teams played a different style game but they have changed that drastically over the past month. Starting with the Evreux game, Boulazac are focused on defense much more, having recorded an over only against fast-pace Saint-Quentin, and only because they themselves scored 92 points. Lille changed their style too since coach Asceric took over. They played 6 unders at this margin in 7 games (not counting two games that ended in overtime). They played over only with Poitiers and only because the conceded 83 points. Lille clearly know how to stop Boulazac because they limited them to 67 points in the last 2 games. Those games finished as overs because Bolazac conceded 95 and 97 points and I don't see that happening today. The importance of this match is another good thing about this bet because Boulazac want to catch up with top two teams while Lille, even though not in the danger zone, are not safe yet with only two wins more than Souffel and Aix, players in the penultimate spot of the table. Who ever finishes there will be relegated. Details

Denain have the fourth best defense in the league with a great average of 71.4 and 20 total points away from the second best defense, which means, when divided by 21 rounds played, Antibes are ahead by a point on average (70.4). Denain are even more impressive at home, averaging 69.2 points in 11 games, and allowing more than 70 in just 4 of those. Taking into account their matches from December to last round, and there were 12 in that period, they stayed under this margin 8 times (including an extended one against Fos which was at 70-70 in regular time). They went over against regular over playing Saint-Quentin, Fos, and in the two blowout games against Angiers and Aix. Lille score 73.3 in away matches, but the matches I see as relevant for them are the ones in 2015, as they switched coaches during the break. They seem more disciplined on defense under Aščerić, allowing 73 points per game (two extra time matches raise the average a bit), which is 4.5 lower than their season average. Under their new coach they too have five unders in six games at this margin, although I count the overtime matches as unders, since they stayed way below the margin in regular time. Apart from these dry numbers, there are two more reasons why this margin is too high. First is that the game is important for both teams, as Denain don't want a second consecutive defeat at home and want to stay in the top, and they usually win through defense. On the other hand, Lille are fighting for survival and will no go run and gun. The second reason is that the first game was a 65-63 win by Lille, waaaay below the margin. Details

Zalgiris' captain went over this margin ten times during this Euroleague campaign, with seven other games in under (Real twice, UNICS twice, Barcelona, Efes, and Galatasaray once). All of those teams, except for Galatasaray play great defense. He finished with 5 and 2-for-6 from the floor and no free-throws in the home defeat to the Turkish side, which was just one out of three games (played 17 in Euroeague this season) in which he didn't have any free throws. The situation for an over is very good today. Zalgiris will have to do without center Guaitis, which means they are left with Javtokas at five. His age (34) suggests he won't be able to cope with this kind of a game, which means Songaila or Jankunas are expected to step in. Songaila is more likely to be given that task but Jankunas might get a few minutes as well when Zalgiris play small-ball. Anyhow, he will get plenty of time at power forward position (29 in the first head-to-head) and will have a favorable matchup. Erceg is not good in defense and Jankunas should be able to take advantage of that. The Turkish team are not playing good defense lately and that is just another argument for this bet. Some shops offer a half a point better margin. Details

Another Sicilian derby, and yet another slightly too high margin in my opinion. The last one against Trapani and Agrigento, which I also picked, did not go through because the match went into overtime. Regular time ended 70-70. Barcellona played at 150 points against Trapani with extra time, Agrigento had a 131 point game against Trapani, and the above mentioned one which was completed with an extra five minutes. The first duel of these teams ended close to this margin (79-73), with 46 points in the last quarter. The trend is more than clear, Sicilian derbies are tough, aggressive, and usually have lower scores. However, this is not the only reason for this pick. Barcellona haven't played a competitive match in three weeks, which should have cut short their rhythm, which was already in short supply. They have a shallow rotation of just 6-7 players, which is why they cannot push for a quicker tempo, which is in a way reflected in their averages, 148.4 in league matches, 146.6 at home. Agrigento are at about 150 points, but their tougher matches (or those against opponents who cannot score, such as Napoli) mostly end under this margin. Details

If you ask me, this is too low for a couple of points. Jesi have players to see this game through with more points. They played like that alost every time when they played against an over (Brescia 156 and 157,, Biella 184 and 147, Napoli 174...). They don't hesitate to run around, and their defense is not that great - they concede 79.7 points, and 80.6 in the last 10 matches We've already written about Torino's defense in the preview. The team who are aware they can deal with every match using offense, and they don't delve too much into the defense. This is especially seen in away matches where they're the worst defense of the league, conceding on average 86.5 points. Their away matches are on 165 points on average, and their potent offense is now additionally stronger for the great shooter Miller who will have a special motive today because he's playing against his own, so I expect him to be better than in the first two matches. How things should look like could be visible from their first head-to-head where they had a total of 181 points. Details

I think this margin is a few points too high. This is a very important match, two teams aspiring for the playoff position are fighting, and both are outside that circle now. The points are worth double. Also, this is one of the two Sicilian derbies. Those are heated by themselves, and there are tensions just from that, but more on that later. Trapani improved their offensive quality when Legion came, but the coach is the same. Ramondino is a defensive coach, and his matches against teams prone to over end up with a higher number of points, because now they can play faster. But, Agrigento aren't an over prone team. They go over against ridiculous opponents like Veroli (105-76), clubs stronger than they are (Verona, Torino, Biella), or clubs prone to over (Mantova, Jesi). The first match these two played shows you what will probably happen today, Trapani won that one 69-62. Maybe that's not relevant for this bet, but it tells you something. Three Sicilian derbies have been played so far, none ended over this margin - Trapani - Barcellona 76-74 (overtime; 65-65), Agrigento – Trapani 62-69, Agrigento - Barcellona 79-73.
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According to the information in the French media this morning, Roanne will be missing Young, Grant, Jackson and even Yabusele, four very important players in their team, and this goes double for Young. The fact Roanne lost five of the six matches he missed proves how important he is for the game of this former 1st league team. A replacement was brought in, Tchicamboud, but he can only start next round, so coach Brouillaud will once again have a rather decimated roster against Boulazac. In that shape they lost their last three matches rather decisively, while Boulazac are better than both Nantes, who beat Roanne by 28, and Charleville, who won here by +30. The third was against Antibes at home (-19). Apart from the fact they're a better team, the away squad are also in better form, winning 8 of their last 10 matches. They're not doing so great in away matches, but should be able to deal with this Roanne rather easily. If Charleville could beat Roanne +30, Boulazac should at least cover this handicap. I played counter Roanne two rounds ago when they hosted Charleville, and one can still take advantage of the injuries on their roster. Details

I cannot agree with Trieste being this much favored in this match. I see this as an even battle, which could be decided by one possession. If we take a look at the quality of the teams rosters on a player by player basis, I could even find more arguments in favor of Trapani than Trieste. The statistics themselves cover this bet. Trieste covered this margin at home only against the horrible away playing Barcellona (+6), Biella (+9 but in extra time), and poor Veroli (+19). Against Assigeco (+5) and Agrigento (+5) they were on the very border, and they lost to all better teams. Trapani are definitely among those better teams, though they might not have shown it all the time so far. However, the only away matches they lost by over 4 points were against Assigeco and mighty Verona. They see this as a key game as well, having lost the first at home to Trieste by 10 they now know where they made mistakes and are defensively strong enough to stop Tonuto and Holloway, two main offensive powers of Trieste. Details

Even complete, Alkar would have problems in Rijeka since Kvarner make a very tough home team. But, since they're injury-decimated today, I don't think they have a chance. Some of those injured players got a bit better and might spend some time on the floor and Modric is travelling with the team just to be on the list. The only problem for Kvarner might be the fact they played the last game a while ago. The key word is might since that doesn't mean they will play worse now. They did a preparation game to score 100 points a against a second tier and the fast pace they prefer this season is just another reason for this bet because the decimated Alkar won't be able to keep up with it throughout the game. Rijeka didn't cover this handicap only against Split home, Alkar played some pretty bleak games even when complete this season - Gorice (-20), Kastela (-5), Jolly (-8). Since they're decimated today, I don't see them losing by less than 10 points. Details

Even if Roanne were complete, I wouldn't set the odds to 1.15-1.20 for them out of respect for the results Charleville had lately. Right now, the set ratio of strengths doesn't make too much sense. Roanne will be without three important players from the starting five. The center Jackson scores 11.8 points per 25.9 minutes, 7.8 rebounds and 1.6 assists, the back Grant has 10.8p, 2.4r, and 3.9a per 23.3 minutes, and the point guard Young 11.6p, 3.3r, 4.6a per 30.7m. That's about 34 points, 13-14 rebounds and about 10 assists per game. Roanne brought the center Carter to cover up for Jackson, but he can only play starting next round. Which means Roanne will face Charleville with a roster that lost to Antibes by 19 in the last round at home. Charleville defeated Antibes by 1 in an away match, and that was the beginning of the guests' rise.
I think that this match is far more evened out that the bookmakers think, and statisically speaking, this pick is realistic. Roanne covered this handicap at home only three out of nine times. Charleville lost by more than 8 (by 9) only once in eight away matches. Details

I almost always go with this bet when Sibenik and Jolly meet. The margin is set a few points higher than in the first game, when I opted for under as well. It didn't turn out successful because Sibenik settled the game very early on which stopped both teams from fighting as they normally do in this city derby. Jolly seem to be a better team today and since they know there's not way of standing up to Sibenik offense-wise, will need to try harder in defense. Sibenik are usually more offense-oriented but nothing is usual when Jolly is on the other side. I repeat, they barely went over the margin last time even thought the game was settled very early on after despite 88 points being scored in the first half. As teams didn't change much since last season, those head-to-head matches are quite relevant. 156 were score in the first game this season, and 129, 120, 137, 116, 134 in previous games. Details

The Romanian team aren't up to this level of competitions. They showed it in the first two matches of Top 32 when they lost to Nancy by 17, and at home to Kuban by 26. Before that, Partizan crushed them by 20 at the end of the first round. Valencia are like little lambs in away matches, and like lions at home. Ploiesti won't have it easy today. Even more so because the home team are motivated, they've got 1-1 ratio, and don't need any complications. Speaking of motive, they hosted Neptunas in the last round of Euroleague. The Lithuanians needed it, Valencia didn't, and it ended +38 for the Spaniards. And Neptunas are stronger than Ploiesti. I really don't see how this could end with less than 20 points difference. A good option is the team over for Perasović's team, for about 5/10, but this is a better option, I think. Valencia crushed Nancy at home by 31, and that same Nancy defeated Ploiesti by 17. Details

Ever since former coach Lambert left and his assistants Giorgutti and Davanel took over, Saint-Quantin finally managed to live up to the expectations. They won 4 out of 5 games, recording their only defeat to top table Hyeres and most importantly, Saint-Quentin do very well home, having won 5 out of the 7 home games this season. They won all three home games since the change in leadership (Nantes by 7 goals, Hyeres by 16, and Poitiers by 13). Fos knocked out top-tier Pau Orthez ten days ago and you must be wondering by would I bet against them. For a number of reasons. First of all, Pau clearly underrated their opponents. Secondly, Fos are much better home (won 6 out of the last 8 games, Cup included). Thirdly, Fos lost all seven league games away, having finished under this margin in the first away game at Poitiers only. And lastly, Fos have only some 7 or 8 players to count on and this is their 4th match in 11 days... Details