betprepare.com

Info we got this morning simply made us write this pick. Mantova, according to our reliable source, will be without three important players today. The center Jefferson, also the first scorer and the first rebounder of the team (14.9p, 11r), also the wing center Amoros (10.2p, 7.6r), and the point guard Fultz (7.6p, 4.5a). Mantova don't have much quality left without those, Rullo, Gaddefors and Moraschini can't do much against the good Trapani who failed before and now want some results because the fire is hot under their feet, they even announced the silenzio stampa (quiet with the press). The guests' motivation is definitely not questionable, and with the absences in Mantova, Trapani become a favorite, so these odds that are dropping should be used. Details

It was just a matter of time before the absence of two key players started to show for Kaštela. Mašić and Rančić would net up to 50 points per game for their team in some games, while their replacements Ćubela and Jukić are not in the same category after all. In the last round game Kaštela scored 74 against Šibenik at home, which is way below this margin, even with 27 of those scored after the game was decided, in the last quarter. Zagreb play better defense than Šibenik, with tricky pressing on the ball handler favored by Jusup that forces opposing point guard to make mistakes, and the resulting transition and easy points are what the Ants base their game on. I'm not sure how much Došen and Klarica can parry that with success. Prior Kaštela games are of little relevance here as they had Rančić and Mašić in them, and even then they stayed below this margin against Osijek and Gorica. Jusup got burned against Kaštela once, I doubt we'll see offensive elegance by the guests from Dalmatia in Trnsko this time. In closing, something for our subscribers to note: I don't like overall under here, as Kaštela have been known to allow opponents to score over 100 this season. Details

If Nantes were coming to Denain in full lineup, they'd still have slim chances of winning because Jean-Christophe Prat's team are amazing at home. They have a series of six wins right now, and won seven out of eight at home. They even crushed Monaco with a two-digited difference, and then Souffel by 50 in the last Aix's home match. Against Saint-Quentin, Fos and Poitiers, they covered the handicap in the wins, and if we would go and compare, this Nantes without three main players (Relphorde, Warren, Durham) are much closer to Aix in quality than to Poitiers, for example. Just leaving three key players at home shows how much coach Franck Collineau wants to be good in the Cup, and I think this Denain should cover the handicap even if they separate themselves early on, and the substitutes take over. They played against Aix, and scored 68 points out of 110. Nantes were defeated four out of five times in away games with a double-digited difference even with these three. Who can afford can try Nantes under 69.5 because Denanin are a great defensive team, and the guests will lose about 40 points without those three, as well as 20 rebounds and 6.5 assists. Details

I've been toying with more options at this game. Counterhandicap at Zvezda (that the won't lose by 7 or more points) is a very good option, just like total points over (156.5) but I think the best choice here is Maccabi's under (80.5). There's no need to explain why I chose this since they're playing Zvezda, a team with brilliant defense that's been conceding an average of 73.4 points in 11 Euroleague matches, that crazy game with Galatasaray that ended with the Turkish team scoring a total of 110 points after 2 overtimes included. Without that match, Zvezda are right next to the top Euroleague defense (Efes, 69.7 points). The fact this is their third game in only 7 days will be additional reason for the Serbian team to try and bring the game to a slower pace. Maccabi will try and bring the speed up but Zvezda's defense transition is very good. They also have players capable of defending Maccabi's top offense specialists (Lazic and Jenkins against Smith and Landesberg, Kalinic and Mitrovic against Randle, and Marjanovic against Tyus and Schortsanitis). Only Williams might not be able to cope with Pargo. Zvezda conceded 64 (Olypiacos), 68 (Valencia), 66 (Laboral), 83 (Neptunas), and 82 (Galatasaray) in away games. Maccabi went over this margin home with Limoges (92), Alba (95), and Unicaja (81). Cedevita (73) and CSKA (61) were unders. Clearly, they struggled with productivity when faced with tough offenses. Details

This is definitely not a 160+ game. It's a big derby, not just geographically (northern Italy), but also because of the placement and the ambitions. Two clubs are evened out as the champion title candidates, and are fighting for the best placement in the last round of the first part of the season today. The reason is the easier lot on the Final Six Cup. In this round, the places are shared for the teams for the Cup final. Besides those subjective reasons, there are objective ones, too. Verona are the best defense of the league, with only 66.1 points per game, and are even more impressive at home with 59.3, even that average is improved because they crushed the junior Forli, whom they only allowed 37 points. But even without that, they conceded over 68 (83) only against Jesi whom they underrated. They left five out of seven opponents at home under 63. They've got six unders in seven games at home with this margin. If Torino weren't the best offensive team of the league (83.7) and the second worst defense of the league (81), this would be 7/10, but they don't score that much in away games. They've got four unders in seven games on this margin. They went over against Veroli, Agrigento and Biella. Two of those three (Veroli, Biella) are definitely not synonyms for the defense. Verona are strong in the paint and will force the post, and they've also got players who can defend the back shot from Torino, their strongest weapon. Details

If there was anything worthy in Kaštela, it was Mašić and Rančić. Well, they're gone. How many problems Kaštela have without them was shown in the Cup match against the second-league club Stoja from Pula who won at the very end. Okay, they are playing at home now, that's a bit of an advantage for any team. They've got 4-1 ratio at home, but those wins were with those two we mentioned, or one of them. Of course Kaštela aren't only two players, but I don't see how Došen, Oršulić or the newcomer Ćubela and the rest of the company could be an even match to Šibenik, who will come motivated because they lost to Kaštela at home. The odds were 2.38 yesterday, today, it's already under 1.8, but it still has a certain value. Kaštela can't win this, the only ones who can lose this are Šibenik if they allow it. Details

I think there's no reason for the total points margin to be set like this. Split became a more defense-oriented team since Vulic joined, with one of the reasons being their defective offense quality. Not many players are capable of scoring there, with that list getting even shorter ahead of this game. Tesija is injured, Mustapic will play but is running a fever, top scorer Mimica left. Alkar are not capable of averaging 80+ points round after round, even though their previous results seem to suggest otherwise, but they met fast-paced Alkar, Sibenik, Zagreb, Zabok, and Brod. Brod don't really play defense, while Alkar played Cibona a few days ago to use up all of their mental and physical energy and almost certainly won't be interested in attempts to outrun the opponent today. Also, it's a local derby match and emotions will run high. Defenses will be tough, as their first head-to-head meeting that ended with 134 points proved. Details

This pick might not have made sense three weeks ago, but it makes a lot of sense today. Saint-Quentin lost their coach four rounds ago, his assistants Davanel and Giorgutti took over and things changed. Saint Quentin got more active and better in defense. They conceded over 80 points (81) only against Lille away in regulation time and that game went over this margin. The other three finished with 153, 144, and 136 points in regulation time. Poitiers went over only against Hyeres in the last 5 rounds. It happened only because they conceded more than 91 point. In the last 10 games (10 in the league and 2 in the Cup), they went over only against Monaco (conceded 100) and against Hyeres in the aforementioned game. I don't expect as many defense issues today on their part because because their main game organizer Romain and top scorer Siggers won't be on the team today. There is some chance Siggers will play but Romain is almost certainly out. Head-to-head games last season ended at 138 and 123 points, this game is important for both teams and I therefore don't expect crazy pace on either side. There's also fatigue since this is the 4th game in only 11 days. Details

In order to beat anyone by 20 points, you need motive, and I doubt Cedevita will go all out to beat Zabok, too many arguments go against that. They have a tough away match against Partizan coming on Sunday, and they're probably thinking about that already, as there is little doubt as to the winner of this match. Zabok are also a traditionally unpleasant host, who had a three pointer attempt at -3 in the same stage of the Cup against Cedevita last season, and lost by 6 in the end. With Brod giving up, Zabok are safe from relegation, so they can calmly work off the rest of the season and are not focusing on the next round match, on Saturday against Zagreb. Cedevita's Gordić is injured, and Repeša will hardly push Ukić, Bilan, Pilepić, Zubčić and the others to extreme. It's more likely that Žganec, Mazalin, Arapović and others with low playtime will get more time. Overall, this should stay under +20. Details

Fenerbahce might be regarded as an offense-oriented team that easily score points, but I don't think they will be able to go over the margin here. Efes are extremely tough in defense and since not being great in offense, will try to slow the pace as much as possible here since their chances get bigger in a less productive game. I expect a tactical war between two Serbian experts and this pick is backed by stats as well. Granted, Fenerbahce had much more overs than under at this margin, but we need to know whom they played to end in overs - teams that couldn't put up a fight against Fenerbahce . Their away game with Usak, the one with Karsiyaka, Panathinaikos, Turk Telekom were all unders. Out of all those teams, only PAO's defense is close to Efes'. Fenerbahce's game in Milan ended at 80 and against Barcelona at 82 points, but check this out - Efes have not conceded more than 76 in any off the home games this season, having limited Real to 73 and Sassari to 62 points. They have only two overs (in friendly matches)(Olympiacos scored 79, Union Olimpija 81). Derby match, battle for top spot, and the last five head-to-head games that ended at 71, 73, 76, 67, and 69 points...those are the reasons. Details

Great Norther Italian derby match, with both teams convinced this won't be about form or quality too much, rather about hearth and fierceness. Who ever has more of that will do better today. Monferrato normally play unders as a rule, having recorded only one over at this margin this season (13 games). Torino are completely different, they recorded 9 over sin 13 games, but this is no ordinary match. Torino played faster-pace last season too and despite of it stayed well under with Monferrato - at 133 points away and at 115 home! We'll be happy if they don't go over 147-148 today. Details

I think the margin is off by a few points. Tofas were very undisciplined in defense lead by Toker, often conceding quite a lot of points, but since Zouros took over, Tofas played the game against Istanbul to prove things will change (124 points in regulation time, 143 after overtime). TED Kolejliler seem to be a team recording overs, but we need to put things into perspective. All their games with tougher clubs would end with a smaller number if point, except for the last one with Besiktas. Their meetings with offense oriented teams all ended in unders (Efes, Banvit). I'm not trying to say Tofas are a tough team, but they are definitely more defense-oriented since Zouros took over. The coach said he will try and implement his vision in the team, this is very important game for both opponents and I think this is more likely to end closer to 150 than to 160 points. Details

The bookies were probably influenced by the fact Valencia don't need a win, while Neptunas do when coming up with these odds. But, that has nothing to do with anything. Perasovic's coaching position is in serious danger, with each new defeat providing his critics with a new argument. Valencia beat Kutxa by 10 points home, Galatasaray by 7, lost to Zvezda by 9 in one of their worst games, and to top table Olympiacos by 3. How about Neptunas? They lost all four away games, not once by less than 10 points (in Greece). I had three options to consider for this game, the first one being visitors' total points under set at 76.5 points because they went over that margin only once (Olympiacos, 79, with 26 points in the last quarter). In the other three, Neptunas scored 69 (Laboral), 68 (Galatasaray) and 62 (Zvezda). The second option was handicap at Valencia because they are the better team here and Perasovic won't let them not try today, while Neptunas do horribly away. Third option, which I settled for in the end, is home team total point over at 80.5 points. Granted, Valencia didn't score over that margin in any of the four home games, but Neptunas' defense is not as those other defenses. When it comes to away games, they conceded 88 against Laboral, 94 against Galatasaray, 79 against Zvezda, and 89 against Olympiacos. Even in their only tough away game in the domestic championship, Neptunas conceded over 86 (Zalgiris). Besides, they conceded 87 to Valencia home in the first head-to-head game this season and if this should be a successful bet if Valencia do well. Handicap might seem like a better option at first, but I don't want to be forced to dread whether Valencia will take the final shot if they are already in the lead. Details

As the preview said, after a great start to the season, this Kastela team seem a bit worn out now. They lost four of their last five matches, while Alkar are in an opposite situation winning four of their last five. There is no reason to hide that the main reason for betting against Kastela, apart from poorer form, is the fact they're missing Rančić, their best player. This is insider info, which we got despite there being no official confirmation from the team, naturally, but he played injured last round. Kastela lost away against awful Brod, and Kvarner from Rijeka also proved that Kastela's home court is not impervious either. Compared to previous seasons, Alkar are no longer an exclusively home focused team, they won three of their four away matches, with Osijek by 17 points as one of those and the strongest team of the league, Zagreb, in a match they controlled the entire time. They also beat Brod by 21 point, where Kastela lost the last round match. Alkar also have more quality, and no absences apart from Žitak. They have better momentum, and the home team are missing their best player and scorer. That's sufficient for me to play this bet. Details

Denain promised to work harder on defense ahead of the season and for now seem to be keeping their promise. Even in preseason games, that have no importance what so ever, Denain played 6 unders at this margin in 8 games. Saint-Quentin and Lille were the only teams with which they played overs. Denain went under in three out of their 4 game in the first stage of the Leaders Cup. They are the second best defense in the league, conceding 69.22 points per game. Monaco have a very tough defense too. They recorded 5 out of 7 unders in preseason, one in Cup, one in four Leaders Cup games. Since they got knocked out of the Leaders Cup, it's questionable how hard they even tried there. They are the third best defense in the league, conceding 69.55 points per game. So where is this margin coming from? Perhaps from the last results of both teams - Denain's game with Le Portel ended with 174 points, with Antibbes at 186. Monaco's games with Poitiers ended with 181 points, with Chaerleville wtih 90 and with Saint-Quentin at 88...I don't expect anything so productive in their head-to-head meeting. Denain went over only with the offense-oriented teams in home games, Monaco as well. Even when they scored 90 against Cherleville, the game ended under 147.5. Other matches these two teams played were very tough battles and I expect something like it today. Details

I have to point out that Mons's team over is a better option, but because of a limited availability of that bet, I will go for the total over on the match, which may be a slightly weaker option. Of course, who can, they should play Mons over 79.5 (William Hill) or over 80 (Marathon). Why over? This is one of those bets that bet themselves. Finnish team are known for their run'n'gun style. Kataja managed to push one Nantes over +190 points in France. True, the first match ended at a lot smaller number of points, but then they were playing for something. Here they're playing for nothing. Kataja can't go any further. Mons will hardly move from the second place. So, this is going to be a relaxed match in which hardly either of the teams will go for the defense. The Belgians have lately been in an excellent offense shape, Kataja is usually "offensively" cheerful, and this should be an over, and the margin is quite acceptable. Details

Compared to yesterday the handicap margin went down by a point, but I see no cause for that. If you read the preview, you could have drawn your own conclusion about this match, but I'll give it a few lines too. Veroli were judged to be the worst team in the league even before the season started. They lost their best player prior to this match, Legion (20.9pts, 5.8rbs, 2.1a, 1.9stl), who crossed over to Trapani, while their last practice session was boycotted by their third best scorer and best rebound collector Wojciechowski (10.5 pts, 6.6rbs). What is there left for Veroli? American Shaw and many young guys who came in from 4th league Azzurro in order to get second league experience and improve. Wojciechowski might end up playing, but as money was behind the boycott, you be the judge of how motivated such a player can be. Veroli average 64.5 points per game, they lost Legion's 21 point, and possibly Wojciechowski's 10 as well. They showed how weak they are without Legion against Brescia last round, losing with -43 points. Ferentino lost their last four and are in a very good rhythm, and although their best player Thomas had certain issues, he's been training since Thursday and is ready to play. It's true that the only team to demolish Veroli at home were the mighty Verona, and Ferentino are not quite a powerhouse in away matches, but with Legion gone and Wojciechowski likely not to appear, I have to play this bet. Details

Last round I put a handicap on Zabok; unfortunately it didn't pass through, and according to the words of the club's players, their game was criminal. Their torture wasn't an accident. Today I'm going against Zabok and I'm pretty convinced Alkar will convincingly win. In the last match they failed against Sibenik which means they will take this game and their opponents seriously. Second home defeat in a row is out of the question, and finally they had a week in which they trained normally, complete and healthy (except for the longer injured Zitko). Zabok are the worst away team od the league, as I've written in the preview. In four matches out of Bedekovcina they have a -59 point-difference. That's not surprising because once they leave their home court, it's like they forget how to play. They lost the last two matches in Zabok with 17 and 18 point-difference, if something like that can be referred to as decent... Details

Nymburk with and without Washington are not the same team. I don't want to predict the outcome of this game, but what ever it may be, I'm sure it won't be very productive. I have a few reasons to believe so. First and foremost, Washington will not be on the team and he's one of the key players for the offense. They did four games without him and, not counting the irrelevant trashing of Decin, struggled with offense quite a lot in the other three games. Oldenburg limited them to 71 point, Kalev/Cramo to 70 , Charleroi to 67. When taking a look to Czech championship games, they were under in 6 out of the last 10, with two others just above the margin (Decin 156, with Nyburk recording 92, and Oldenburg 155 with Nymburk conceding 84). Riga are not as good in offense to score that many. They scored 80 or more in only 4 out of 20 official meetings this season (VTB, Eurocup, domestic championship). Interestingly, all four of those were away games (Jelgava, Himki, Saratov, Szolnoki). Riga had four unders in the last 10, with overs being recorded when they conceded 80 as a rule (Szolnoki 96, Himki 86, CSKA Moskva 87, Union Olimpija 83, Saratov 83, Bešiktaš 88). They had three overs home in 9 games (CSKA, Himki, Union Olimpija) only because their defense allowed a productive game for the opponents. Nymburk don't have the offensive power to score more than 80 without Washington, which is why I'm opting for this bet. More so because the visitors struggle with fatigue and this game is taking place not even 48 hours after Charleroi, which should prevent any fast attempts. Details

This text will be published soon. Details