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Costa Rica are the weakest team in Group B at the Centrobasket. They played three games so far (they have only this one left) and all three defeats were by over 20 points. I wouldn't go for the final handicap because of possible calculations by the Virgin Islands when they gain a lead, and they have an important game tomorrow against Dominican Republic. Virgin Islands defeated Bahamas, who are the closest to them in quality, in the first game 21-10 in the first quarter. Just for comparison, those same Bahamas defeated Costa Rica 27-4 in the first quarter. Costa Rica played 9-11 in the first quarter against Mexico, and Virgin Islands lost to Mexico 13-18. I am pretty sure that Virgin Islands' first quarter handicap will pass, it should be at 6-7 points, but Costa Rica's first quarter against Mexico does sound off an alarm for me (even though Mexico are not as good as they can be at this competition, at least in the beginning). But even better option for me is Costa Rica under 14.5 points. In three games at this tournament they scored 7 (Dominican Republic), 4 (Bahamas), and 9 (Mexico)in the first quarters. Virgin Islands conceded 10 against Bahamas (I repeat, after that the Bahamas defeated Costa Rica 27-4 in the first quarter) and 18 against Mexico who are stronger offensively than Costa Rica. I expect a good approach at the beginning, I cannot guarantee it later on, and games played so far support this pick. Both teams have some players that played at the 2012 Centrobasket and the Virgin Islands won that 92-64, 23-12 in the first quarter. Costa Rica are very, very thin offensively, I expect Virgin Islands to go strong from the start to solve the matter of the winners early on and focus on tomorrow's game against the Dominican Republic, and they definitely do not need any additionally wasting of energy with any complicating of the game, since they came here with only nine players. Details

I lost a similar bet a few days ago (Zadar team under), but the circumstances were against me. The match fell apart pretty quickly and there was zero defense. Even then, Zadar had 79 points, only a few points over the 74.5 margin. That was all pretty meek, but the game in Zadar was completely different. Aggressive, eager on both sides, and the final moments only proved it. Cibona's captain Rozić hit Zadar's Bašić in the head, the audience insulted Cibona's players and their coach got pissed off. All of that only made things even more intense before this third and final game. Unlike the first one, I don't expect a blowout so Zadar should stay under the team margin set to 73.5. But because of the intensity and a possibility of a lot of throws in the last minutes, I think Zadar's team under after the first half is a better option. Statistically, that's not as attractive as a total under (Zadar hit 62, 65, 82 (in the Cup at home, ABA league with Cosey), 65, 72, 79 (in this blowout), and 73 against Cibona), while they had 37 and 42 after the first half in this series, 30 and 39 in the Championship, 42 in the Cup, 37 and 40 in ABA league. They hit 40 in Zagreb (ABA with Cosey), 30 championship, and 37 (first semis where the difference was 15 by the end of the first half, so the defenses weren't being played right). Like I said, the tensions are high, this is the game for the final which means playing against Cedevita, but still... The motivation is not questionable, Zadar aren't cream of the top offensive-wise (quite the opposite), Cibona will be eager from the get go. There's even more arguments for under this time than the first time. Details

Defenses are in the forefront in this series. Actually, in their last three head-to-heads. In early May Galatasaray won a game at 141 points, and in the two quarter-final games 141 and 127 points were scored. Before that they played a Eurocup round of 16 game, in Izmir at 131 point and in the return fixture 158 with 93 scored by Galatasaray. Their first championship game was the only one with a lot points, but they did not play defense in that fame, it was a rather irrelevant game mid-way through the season. Everything I wrote tells us to bet on an under. I thought about the options for the overall under like I wrote about the previous game, but I am afraid that the same scenario as in Eurocup return fixture may happen, when Galata went over, and demolished Pinar. So the only viable option is Pinar's team under. It is set at 70.5 points, and I discarded that option for two reasons - possible dilution of the game or possible free throw finish. But the halftime team under seems like a great option. There is no fear of dilution, no penalty shoot-out finish, and no lack of motivation. This is the deciding game, the game of highest stakes, because the semi-final is on the line. Of their five head-to-heads, Pinar scored by the halftime: 52 (in the first championship game at a lot of points), 28 (league), 29 (first Eurocup game), 33 (Eurocup return fixture) and 29 and 24 in the quarter-final. This means that they were under this margin five out of six times. Galata have shown that they can be stopped, and Pinar do not have a great offense. They depend a lot offensively on Wright and Gabriel's three pointers, and these two are not in great form. This should stay under if Galatasaray play defense as good as they did in previous duels. And there is no reason they wouldn't. In similar games they conceded 35 at home to Strasbourg, and 23 away are significant. 25 at home against Bayern, there were a lot of points only in two games against Gran Canaria. In the Top 32 at home - Sassari 33, Szolnoki 34 and Zaragoza 33. Details

This game should finish as an under overall and that was my original idea for a tip. I think that cannot go badly. We have 5 head-to-head games of this season, which is quite a lot. They finished at 115, 139 (both ABA league games), 157 in the Cup, and 141 and 144 (regular season). That is why I cannot understand how bookies came up with this 155-156 point margin. Probably because of convincing wins over other teams in the league for champions. However, I started thinking about other options as well. Especially team under at Zadar, but their under in the first half as well. Zadar hit 62, 65, 82, 65 and 72 points against Cibona this season. The 82 from the Cup is when they had Cosey and when things were different and when Zadar were ABA League level. They got limited to 65 points in both games in Zadar. Zadar's under at 74,5 points is a good thing as well so I ended up going with that even though first half under might be just as good. It might not be founded on stats (Zadar hit 37, 40 (in Zagreb), 45 (Cup), 30 (in Zagreb) and 39 in the first halves of head-to-head games) but it's still very good.

The potential downside to this might be close finish or a blowout. But a blowout isn't very likely to happen. Even if it were, Zadar don't have enough offensive power to take advantage of the home team's relaxed attitude. A close finish doesn't have to necessarily mean a game that will be decided by a few points. Cibona beat their both home games more easily and Zadar got limited under 65 in both. I don't think they can go over 75 here. It's the first game and it's best of three so who ever wins is very close to losing overall. I expect a war on the floor. This is a sure thing unless Zadar have a crazy shooting night. Details

I might still be affected by what Fenerbahce did to Real in EL quarterfinals but if they managed to limit on of Europe's top two offensive ends like that, I expect them to do the same to Laboral. Fener's coach Obradovic is top-level when it comes to tactics and that saw his team stop Real's back court. They limited Real to 29, 29 and 27 points in the first halves of those games, which sounds unreal. They allowed over 37,5 in Euroleague 11 out of 27 times and 4 times in 8 games against better opponents in the Turkish league. I wouldn't care about the Turkish league much. There are a few 'suspicious' games among those in Euroleague (43 Panathinaikos home, 45 Kuban home, 51 Darussafaka away, 39 Darussafaka home) but I think none of those will be close to this one when it comes to approach. This is EL semis after all. As for Laboral, the stats are not that great for me. They recorded overs in 15 games out of 27. The 'suspicious' games are Olympiacos away, Zalgiris home, Borse away and Barca home and all three in QF with PAO. I'll try and explain this. The Oly game was at the start of the season and they hit 22, 34 and 30 in the other three with them. The Zalgiris game was a blowout away and they had a 15-point lead by half time. The Brose game was the same home (19 points by half time), and Barca home and PAO in QFs are the game Causeur didn't play. He slows Laboral down. Laboral stay at under 37,5 in the first half in the seven games against all the relevant Spanish teams. Causeur is now back which will slow their offense a bit. It's important that Fener played brilliant defense in the most important games - those against Real. I can explain basically every over Laboral had in the first half this season, this game is extremely important and James and Adams won't spend so much time on the floor together, which makes Laboral's defense less strong. I decided for the first time under to avoid nerve-wrecking finish even though the total under at Laboral (74-75) is good as well. Details