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Le Mans conceded 90 and 87 points in the last two matches. Not their best defense for sure. But the opponents were like that, Pau Orthez have a lot of points, and Chalon even more. They kept Chalon at 32 points in the first 20 minutes, and fell apart later on. They played away against Pau, and on neutral court against Chalon. Why does that matter? Because Le Mans allow 68.7 points at home, and counting the Eurocup, 70.4. The score for unders on this margin at home is 13-3 (24-12 total), and 10-0 at home in the championship, with average of 139.7 in home matches. Monaco's statistics aren't as clean, but they often end up in the points picks, due to the situation. I've bet on under 155.5 against Nanterre, 159.5 against Chalon. What I mean is, they can play both a lot of points and much less points, depending on the opponent. I've seen their three duels in the Leaders Cup final, and even though their coach says they're not a defensive team, they were impressive against Nanterre, leaving them at 68 in the quarterfinal, 65 against Strasbourg in the semifinal, and 74 against Chalon in the final, while allowing only 22 in the second half-time. Their away average in the league is 155.2, 6-4 score for overs, but they went over against Chalon, Nanterre (with Robinson), and against the over-prne Le Havre and Nancy, and against Cholet and Orleans who got stuffed (90 and 93 points respectively). Le Mans don't tend to go over, and they won't get stuffed. They stayed under against tough teams like Dijon (124 p), Gravelines 129, Strasbourg 145... Le Mans will try to get the win with their defense, Monaco showed they can play great defense, and I think this margin is too high considering. The first one they played ended at 134, barely went over with the overtime (153). Details

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The only downside to this bet may be the fact that this is the finale so the stakes are high. But I don't think that will make Chalon give up on their game style. In the semi-final, they took offensively powerful Le Mans up to 166 points, with Asvel they played at 161, and that team builds a lot from good defense. They scored 87 to Le Mans, 91 to Asvel. It is really a pleasure to watch them. Monaco's both games here in Paris were in the under, against Nanterre I wrote under at 155.5, yesterday against Strasbourg they were under 150 (147). But they are important to me here. They scored 48 before halftime against Strasbourg who have played great defense lately, finished at 82. Strasbourg were not shooting well, 4/21 three pointers, they missed lay-ups, played rather indisposed... I don't expect that from Chalon, they play fast, have several great shooters, and Monaco's point guard is Cooper with whom it all looks well offensively, fast, very good. Besides, I think their three head-to-head games this season are enough of a sample to make some conclusions - on December 19th 165 points in Monte Carlo with Chalon's weak efficiency (71). At the same place in the Cup 166 points, now in the league at Chalon 181. This margin is, in my opinion, missed by a few points and I would personally put it at 164-165 so I want to use this, because the offense is a strong suit for both teams. Their point guards are fast, they have a lot of great shooters (Monaco - Shuler, Gladyr, Cooper, Ouattara; Chalon - Hazell, Kalinoski, Robertson...), they are both offensively oriented. There are a lot of arguments here to bet on the over. Details

I don't see why Monaco would have a different status with me than Gravelines had. The teams are equally good in the league as well, they are sharing the top spot, but 'good' is not good enough for Strasbourg. I watches all Leaders Cup play-off games yesterday, Monaco struggled with Nanterre who were without their best player. They advanced to the next round but with a lot of luck. Strasbourg controlled the game against Gravelines, they were in the lead by 10 points and more for a lot of time. At one point they were even in the lead by 18. We can see just how much they care about this competition from coach Vincent Collet's reaction. There was only 60 seconds of the game left, Strasbourg conceded a three pointer with which Gravelines were now down by 10. He immediately called for a time-out and taught his players a lesson about their approach. Their first head-to-head game in Strasbourg finished with 25 point difference, and not only because of home court advantage... Monaco usually have problems in away games (4-6 in the league). OK, you will say so do Strasbourg, but I would say to that "they used to". They have significantly improved lately. They defeat Gran Canaria and Hapoel in away games, and they would probably defeat Saratov as well if it had been in their interest. In the league, they won at Asvel, Limoges, Gravelines... They came here to win this. Monaco are better offensively than Gravelines, but they are not as good defensively so it's pretty much the same. And Strasbourg scored 83 last night against the best defense of the league. I cannot miss things like this. Details

When motivated and I have no reason to doubt this, Strasbourg are one level ahead of most other French teams. They proved quality i te recent meetings with main competitors in the league. The failed against Nanterre aside, Strasbouth beat Limoges by 12 points away, Nancy home by 9, 21 to Asvel and Gravelines by 5 away. They beat Gravelines by 19 points home. This one is to take place on neutral grounds, which can only be good for Strasbourg. Gravelines recently lost to Limoges by 16 points, made a comeback against Le Havre to win by one point. They lost to Reimes by 31. Their top players are not at their best but they will play anyway. Strasbourg should play anyway and since the margin doesn't allow holding back, I'm sure Strasbourg will go full throttle. Details

The first h2h finished at 142 points in Monaco. The second one at Nanterre just a bit over this margin. The difference between those games and this one is Nanterre's fast paced Robinson, who is now out. That leaves Nanterre without 20 or so points. The fact they scored over 80 in six straight games and then got limited to 52 against Dijon says it all. They played two more games without him this season to beat Pau Orthez 81-77 home and Reims 72-70 away. The team under at Nanterre is a good option as well but I'll go with the widely-available total under. The only concerning overs Nanterre have are against Dijon lte Ocober and recently against Orleans. They are 20-14 for unders this season at this margin, a lot of which ws in EC. Monaco can play very good defense, they are without Robinson and they cannot afford a slip since there are no amends. Nanterre will play with 7 veterans who don't like fast pace. They play tomorrow in case of a win and I don't think they'll rush today. Details

Yesil sacked the coach and put Trifunovic in charge. His coaching skills are questionable but he prefers defense-oriented style. Yesil played a more controlled basketball under Kandemir but when things started getting out of control, Kandemir got sacked. The team needs to win desperately, they will want a response now and I expect them to do well in defense. They have 6 unders in 8 games home, going over with Istanbul and Usak. The over with Istanbul is no surprise,t he one with Usak is. TED are very careful away, they went over this margin only twice at the start of the season and finished under 150 in the last 4 away games, 6 out of 8 in total. The first one finished at 159 with 49 points in the final quarter, which is an extreme. Both teams need points and I expect no rushing on any side. Details

Even if we pulled a mathematical average of these teams (Charleville 156.4 and Saint-Wuantin 139.3), it's still under the offered margin of points. If we take a look at Charleville's home games, their averae is 150.9, and Saint-Quentin's road games are at 132. I'm aware that this is a clash of styles at hone hand, but not even this Charleville are a team the likes of Evreux and Boulogne so that it's not to be played in an under. A small minus for this bet, to make it clear at the very start, are home matches against Souffel (at 151) and Fos (in regular time at 152, with overtime at 172), but they remained under in this championship against the fast Poitiers (148), Denain (145), Lille (112), Bourg (146), Vichy (142)... It's not that they don't have matches on a smaller number of points. Saint-Quentin during the whole championship stayed below this margin in 12 out of 15 matches. They only went over with Bulogne and Boulazac who are overs, and against Nantes at 150 (void). They have eight road unders in as much games. They stayed below this margin in the last eight games. And in the end, we have a sample of three matches of these teams this season A friendly at 139 in Charleville, Leaders Cup here at 148 with blowout and Saint-Quentin's 85 points which almost certainly won't happen; and the Leaders Cup in Saint-Quentin at 145. SQ have lately been great in the defense, they managed to put Evreux at 140 points in a road game, Bourge at 130, Hyeres at 130, Roanne at 143... We're just mentioning the teams who can score and who can play efficiently. If they could do it with them, I don't see why they wouldn't do it against Charleville who were in the group with unders in LC (SQ and Souffel), so all four matches were below this margin - at 148 and 145 against SQ and at 142 and 140 against Souffel, and the same the two in the Cup (Orchies 149, Dijon 144). Details

Had this match been played two or three weeks ago, I wouldn't even look at the total number of points, but in the meantime some major changes happened in Kastela which are making me take this. Ribola's lead sacked coach Bralic who was forcing run-and-gun, and considering the team doesn't have overly offensive quality, that wasn't very fruitful. Celan took over and made a complete turnover. According to our sources from the match against Sibenik, Kastela have slowed down as much as they could, apparently they're rotating one or two actions in the offense all the time and the coach doesn't let them rush like they did under Bralic. The consequences were seen in the duel against Sibenik: they allowed their opponents only 69 points, that's the best defense they've offered this season in numbers. They themselves recorded 63 points, and after Zabok that was the worst offensive night. Gorica are inclined towards an offensive game, I'm not trying to hide that, but they're on a five-game losing run and the Champions League is hanging by a thread, so I expect them to have a more serious approach. The margin is such that in order to go over it, you have to have two teams who are running and gunning and having a good night at the same time. Today we have one who will slow the game down and I don't see Gorica taking this to 170 points. The first one went to 171 with 99 points recorded by Gorica, but that was Bralic's Kastela. Celan's Kastela is defensively more rational. Details

Honestly, I was hoping for the margin to be set like this because of Lilles. First things first, Evreux overhauled their game style this season and became a run'n'gun team. They played 25 official games (8 IN Leader's Cup. 2 in the Cup, 15 int he championship) and went over this margin 6 out of 8 times (with 154 against Le Portel away and 153 with the same team away). They had 12 overs in 15 championship games, which means they have 19 overs in 25 games at this margin. They recorded uders home with Saint Quentin, Saint Chamond and Orchesien when coach Pluvy brought the pace down on purpose. Those were the championship games. he wil not be slowing down today because that can only help Lilles. They are as a rule focused on defense and have played 24 official games so far. They have 7 unders and one overs in Leaders Cup. Their group was quite defense-oriented and the QF and semifinals opponents as well. They have 11 under and 4 overs in the league but they recorded overs against fast-paced teams. 178 points in the Boulogne game, 170 against Poitiers, 163 against Hyeres home and Roanne at 156. They played Buoulogne in the Cup at 170. Evreux average 168,9 in the league, Lille at 141,4, which is why the margin is set at 154. Evreux had 7 overs in 9 games and I will always take them at this margin. Details

I think that already have a sample big enough to make some conclusion based on their head-to-head games. Trabzon and Pinar faced each other three times this season, and three times the game finished under this margin of points. At the Pinar Cup, pre-season tournament, Karsiyaka won 74-70, in the league in Izmir, the home team won 74-71, and in the Eurocup Pinar won at home 81-68. We should also add to that the importance of today's game. This is a 'do or die' game for Pinar, because with a defeat they lose all chances of advancing to the knock-out stage. The situation is pretty much the same for Trabzon. At the existing margin, Trabzon have 28-12 this season in favor of under, 11-5 at home and 6-4 in the last 10 games. Pinar's stats are not as good (22-16 in favor of under, but 10-7 in away overs, 5-5 in the last 10 games), but their away games almost always went over mostly because they conceded too much (Panathinaikos 85, Efes 91, Barcelona 107, Fener 104, Reggio Emilia 88) which I don't expect today. They also played against teams that usually play over (Istanbul, Besiktas, Banvit) or the games were irrelevant (Stelmet). When you look at their games, nothing 'stands out' as a warning. Against tough opponents they were under in away games (Kuban, Zalgiris, Selchuk) and even against TED, and a few days ago at Trento. Trabzon concede under 72 at home, they conceded 85 at Galata, lost convincingly so coach Markovic said that they have to improve some things for the game against Pinar. The away team limited Besiktas at 59 points in the previous round, coach Sarica points out that this game is imperative for them and that they have to play like they did at home against Trabzon. And in that game they limited them to 68 points. Details

The direction in which Jolly started heading after being taken over by Ivan Velic is obvious. Skrljevo, who like a fast game and a bigger number of points, who are softer in the defense, have been allowed only 66 points, and Jolly scored 11 more. The opponents are very slowed down, brought down to only 53 shots from the floor, and Jolly had 63. A total of 116. That is miles away from the first head-to-head when the teams had a combined of 140 shots. The first match between Jolly and Gorica went to high numbers, primarily because of the second half which ended with a 59-43 score for Gorica. Velic surely won't allow that. Besides, the last time Jolly went over this margin in regular time was in that match, and after that they had nine unders in a row. Gorica's statistics are somewhat worse for the pick, they have eight overs in 13 matches, but they're slower away than at home - four unders in six matches at the limit of 159.5 points (two at 158). They only went over with the speedy Sibenik and Kastela, and they were close to an over with the offensively strong Kvarner and Zagreb. I expect Jolly to slow this down, I saw what this coach said, and this margin seems too high for the "new Jolly". Details

Sadly, during the preparations Nancy didn't play a single match against a second-league club, so I can't draw any parallels, and neither did Saint Quentin play against a first-league club, but I think this is all a very good material for an over. Saint Quentin started pushing for the defense with the arrival of coach Sousa. In the beginning it didn't look well, but lately they've gotten better in that segment. But, that's in the second league. Nancy are a different story. During the whole season, at this margin they have seven unders and one void in 28 official matches: twice against Venezia in the Eurocup (137, 133), against Charleroi (130) and twice against Valencia (142, void at 145) in the same competition and in the league against Limoges (112), Cholet (132) and Dijon (139). Everything else are overs. SQ's statistics is more of an under: they have 13 unders in 16 matches, but I doubt they will be able to stand up with their defense against Nancy. Besides, they hosted two very strong offensive teams and allowed 91 points against Boulogne and 93 against Boulzac. Nantes recorded 77 against them as an away team. Orchesien 81. One thing which doesn't fit in here are the two unders are the start of the season against run-and-gun team Evreux against whom they've played an away game. But, as I said, Nancy are quality-wise and offensivel another things compared to Saint Quentin, and this margin is definitely too low for me. Details

I'm not going to wonder as to why the margin went 2-3 points up compared to the original one. It just happened and I'm planning to take advantage of it because I do not see how it's possible for this match to finish close to 150 points. Let's start with the obvious. These teams already played two games this season. The Leaders Cup group stage game was a blowout that finished at 138 points (78-60 for Denain), Lille won the other one 70-59. That's no surprise for me, both teams are very defense oriented. Lille were going to a defensive crisis in some games but looking at all of their games in the season, they went over this margin twice with Boulogne, Poitiers, Toulon and Roanne. Toulon are brillaint on both ends, while Roanne don't play defense. Denain are similar, they have overs with Evreux, Boulogne, Bourg, Boulzac and Roanne. Yes, they went at 147 points against Fos (allowed 84). I don't see either team going close to 80 here. Both have recorded unders against teams with more modest offenses. They even had unders with some fast-paced opponents. Details

This year Sibenik are a different team. They made their team younger, and even if main players like Petani and Basic are still there, Sarin is forcing youngsters like Badzic, Spanja and others. Those changes indicated a change in the style: Sibenik are now faster, they have transitions, they're playing for one more points. If we are to be mean, even the city derbies against Jolly have become okay to watch. In the league they're 6-5 in favor of overs on this margin, but it's noticeable that they remained in unders against teams who are unders (Alkar twice, Zabok and Split). The only over with whom they've stayed under were Kvarner in Rijeka when it ended at 142 points. Together the teams had 13 throws (!), they played fast (Sibenik 60 shots, Kvarner 65), but the hosts failed in the offense. That was one of Kvarner's rare matches at a lower number of points, in 11 league matches they went over seven times. They always play for more and that's no surprise since Marinelli leads the game, and that can't be slow. They remained in an under with Sibenik and Jolly at home, and against unders Split and Zabok. Considering the style of these teams, this should gravitate towards 160 points. I wouldn't be surprised if it went over that. Details

I don't see a way for this to finish with less than 160 points. Let's start with the obvious - Skriljavo and Zagreb played two h2h games so far, both in Zagreb. The league game finished at 170, the Cup game at 167 some 20 days ago. I would have set this margin at 4-5 points more just on account of that. I think it's a consequence of lower numbers Zagreb have. They play aggressive game that is based on transition and have a good enough offense to cover this. They have 8 unders in 15 games at 159,5 margin, while they finished at 158 against Lasko, Kastela and Gorica. The other five at against Lasko (145), Split, Osijek and the slow-paced Zabok. Skriljevo have 4 unders in 12 games, one in the cup and three with Split, Alkar and Zabok. They went over this margin in 4 out of 5 home games. To sum up, two offense oriented teams, head to head games...That's enough to go with points over. Especially because Zagreb's unders are easily explainable. Details

Jolly failed in the autumn part of the season. But, the fact is also that they have bigger quality than the 3-7 record suggests it. They confirmed their ambitions in the winter transfer window by bringing two new players who will definitely be additions. The managed to tie two wins in the Cup during the break and I think that the triumphs against Kastel and (especially) Sibenik will be a trigger for better games. Jolly definitely have it. Split have problems in away matches and that can no longer be a coincidence. The players themselves mention a lack of confidence, they have been defeated in five away matches, and they only won in a single one in the first round against Zabok. Jolly, no matter what they're like, won four out of six at home. They lost the city derby against the strong Zagreb. Split don't fall into that category and this is a mistake made by the bookmakers. Personally I was thinking of taking 1.45 without thinking, so I see this as a gift. Details

It's been a year since coach Krstic took over at Osijek. he uses more players than the former coach. I saw them live against Sibenik and I was sure that the game will be an over 2-3 minutes in. They hit 90 against Sibenik and Kastela have any even worse defense. And yes, Osijek do have some unders this season (4 in 10 games) but that was with Split, Zabok and Alkar, teams that record almost nothing but unders. Kastela have two unders in 0 games, against Alkar and Zabok. The first h2h finished at 169. Delas played at Kastela back then but that's important for defense as well. If Kastela hit 70, which I think they will, this cannot fail... Details

Boras are a run'n'gun team, no doubt about it, but a big part of their game is based on the point guard Krayem. He hits 19.3 points per game with 7 assists in Europe, and he's out today because of a knee injury. It's very hard, impossible even, to make up for the 30ish points he produces directly or indirectly. Darboe will take part of his duties, but he's a backcourt player primarily. Even with Krayem in the lineup, Boras went over this margin only three times in seven European games. In the first round against the ridiculous Cantu, and twice against the fast Kapfenberg. Le Havre left them at 74 in the crucial game for the second round at home. Turk obviously take this competition seriously, they've won all seven games and haven't conceded over 75 yet, that's how much they had against Kumanovo. What is significant here is that they played an unimportant duel against the ultra fast Kotka in the finish of the first phase, won by 25, conceding 72. They often went over in the league, but that can't be compared. I wouldn't even say that replacing the coach hurts this bet. Yes, they went over big against Galata, but even then they conceded 85, and they're a spaceship compared to Boras. Details

Banvit have quite a lot of choice at guard positions but the power forward position is a problem as there are basically no options for the coach there. Moerman will almost definitely get upwards of 30 minutes today since Yildirim is his substitute today. He can spent less time on the floor only in two cases - technical fouls or a blowout. The latter will not happen. Now, for the game, Moerman takes a lot of shots, that's no secret. He takes more than 8 per game. His average in Eurocup is 10,9 points, but intersetingly he recorded unders against great defense teams like Buducnost (8 points), UNICS (5), Aris (5), UNICS (7), Aris (6). The last one against Aris was a blowout so he played for only 20,5 minutes. Bayern can play good defense as well but the matchup for Moerman is good today - Savanovic. Not counting that Aris game, he hit 12 to Steaua, 20 to Trabzon in European games. He has 11 overs in 13 home games, having gone over in the last 8 (18, 16, 22, 8, 14, 19, 23, 24). This margin is just too low for him at this moment. Details