betprepare.com

Eliminating all the fast teams who faced Le Portel, who took them over this margin because Eric Girard's team can keep up with them offensively, the only thing not fitting into the under story today is the away game against Fos. As for the home matches, Le Portel went over the margin only against the fast Boulazac, the other four games (including the Cup against the first-league team Le Havre) stayed under. Saint Quentin played lots of away matches, so we have a nice pattern here: seven games (5 league, 2 Cup), all seven unders on this margin. And big unders, too. Even counting all the home matches, SQ have got 8 unders in 10 matches, one against Boulazac, one against Boulougne. For example, they left Evreux under 140 both in the Cup and the league.
SQ's coach only talks about the defensive, and they look really cautious when playing away, so they still didn't concede over 72 in an official game, and they played away against Evreux and Hyeres who score 80 per game. Le Portel are good offensively, no doubt there, but they improved their defensive game this season, as well, so only Boulazac scored over 66 at home against them in the league. Le Havre 68, but they're the first league. And I can't say they're too efficient. Except against Boulazac (87), the other four home games saw them finish with 66, 80, 71 and 75. With that kind of efficiency today, up to 75 points (remember that SQ never conceded over 72 in away games), this should stay under 150.5. Details

I usually avoid high margins like this one, but when it comes to Evreux, then this is not high. Put aside the games against Saint-Quentin at the beginning of the season, Laurent Pluvy's team went to 160 points against the best defense of the league Souffel, and in the next five matches, the totals were - 181 (Poitiers), 183 (Charleville), 169 (under-prone Denain), 161 (Vichy, with 17:13 in the last quarter when everything was done), 181 (Hyeres). They played two Leaders Cup semifinal matches these days - 180 points at home against Boulazac (94-86), 161 points away (72-89). In the quarterfinal, the numbers were lower against Le Portel, 153 at home (losing 72-81) and 156 away (winning 85-71), but looking at their results from the season and the pre-season, what Evreux have been playing is pure run'n'gun. Saint Chamond's statistics aren't that one directional when it comes to over, but they did play games with lower numbers against tough teams like Lille, Denain, Souffel, and they had bigger numbers against offensively powerful teams - 173 against Nantes, 163 against Poitiers, 159 against Roanne, 157 against Orchies. The Leaders Cup group saw similar results. Evreux are a level up offensively, and I expect a lot of points to be scored here. Details

Strasboug's struggles in away games are very well-known. They lost 15 straight Euroleague away games, (all 4 this season, never hit over 64 points). Team under at Strasbourg is definitely a good option but I think playing the French at under 35,3 in the first half is even a better option. That way we don't have to be worried about about Real letting go in the second half if they take a big lead, which is definitely a realistic outcome. This tip is based on solid stats as Strasbourg hit 32, 49, 29, 26, 51, 34, 34, 29 and 43 points int eh first half of Euroleague games this season. That means that they have 6 unders in 9 games. One of the overs (51) was from the Real game, but that kind of outcome is not realistic here at all. Strasbourg hit 32 against Zvezda, 29 against Bayern, 26 against Khimki and 34 against Fener and finished all 4 games in an under. Since I expect Real to be very motivated today because of the defeat in France and because they need this win. I don't think Strasboug will get much room for their game in the first half or in the entire game. Details

I watched their first head-to-head game, it was played fast, Darussafaka surprised me there with their approach because they tried to outrun CSKA even though they were aware that it suited the away team. It finished at 155 points after 93 at halftime. The situation itself suggests this pick for me. How ever CSKA play today, they have to win at Unicaja to finish in the top spot. Which means that this game is in a way an exhibition game for them. When they didn't take their opponents very seriously, the games regularly went over. Only VTB derbies against Kuban (who are an under team) and UNICS were in under. In Euroleague, they stayed at 155 only at Darussafaka, at home Maccabi 169, Brose 160, Unicaja 164, Sassari 170. Even Darussafaka's numbers aren't so bad for this pick - 162 at Brose, 150 at Unicaja, 157 at Maccabi, and under at Sassari (128). Only the last game doesn't fit into all of this, but numbers aside, I see CSKA in this game at around 90 or more points, which is a standard for them, and Darussafaka cannot do the same. When CSKA don't need a win, and they don't today, than they don't play defense. They will score their share of points, and I expect that they won't try too hard in the defense. Details

I have more options for this match, but I decided for the one which seems to be the safest, and that's Trabzonspor's team over. There are more reasons for that one. Efes's defense hasn't been working well the entire season. They push when needed, but as Saric put it - offensively they're a potent and talented team so they forget about themselves on their half. At home they conceded over this margin almost every time (except against Milan who scored 73), and if I should put this simply, I would say - if the desperate Limoges could have scored 74 points here, then the offensively very potent Trabzonspor can to it too. Nenad Markovic's team have awakened and they have showed it in the last couple of matches. The top was in Podgorica. Hardy, Johnson-Odom and Kinsey are dangerous, and Stipanovic gathers everything he can around the hoop. Of course, Velickovic shouldn't be forgotten either. I expect a match with bigger numbers, in the spirit of the Turkish league, and this margin has been missed if you ask me. Trabzon, true, have so far had problems with going over the 70 points in away matches, but because of everything I've listed, this is a very good option for me. Except for Trabzonspor team's over, the total over is also worth it, and well as the counter-handicap on the away team because I think they're underestimated. Details

I think that Saint-Quentin finally got a grip, by which I mean that coach Sousa finally got the defense at the satisfactory level. He's been talking about nothing but defense since August and although it wasn't bad before, his team was still games. They had 6 straight defeats but the win over Boulazac in the Leaders Cup QFs seems to have been a turning point. That game was played on the 24th of November. The home team had to try and make up for the 11-point difference from the first match, while today, they don't have that burden. They also crushed Lille away before that which is not something many teams will be able to do. Including the preseason in which they played the Cup, friendly matches and Leaders Cup, they have 4 unders in 6 friendly games, 4 out of 4 in Leaders Cup in the group stage and 2 out of 2 in QFs. Also, they had two out two unders in the Cup. Only Bolougne, whom them underestimated, got them into an over in the league. The home team limited Evraux to 140 or less twice, which no one else managed to do.
Boulazac have less straightforward stats. They do well in offense 6-for-2 overs in friendly games, some of which were against thrid-tiers and 3-for-4 for unders in Leaders Cup group stage. In Leaders Cup group stage they have 3 unders in 4 games, and 1-for-1 in the Cup at this margin). Visitors have 3 unders and 2 overs in the league at this margin. They went over in all three away games and that's the only downside to this bet. They went over against Vichy as they hit 84, against super-fast Boulogne and Bourg where they allowed 81 and the game finished at 154. I think the last two h2h games in Leaders Cup (74-63 win for Boulzac home and 74-68 for SQ in the second leg) are the best argument for this staying at under 151,5. Details

The first game finished at 150 points after the second quarter finished with 45 (a third of total points). This game is extremely important for the home team and I think Mahmuti will not order his team to play a fast-paced game. First of all, that just not his style and second of all, Darussafaka are not a team that can keep up with the fast-pace. The pain is where I think this game will be settled because teams are very phsically powerful and this is a clash of muscle and strength, not techmicall skills. Also, Darussafaka are a different team away. Brose hit a lot of points against them in Germany (86), while the game in Turkey barely went over 120. Darussafaka have under with Sassari home (66-66 in regulation time) and hen a game at 121 points. The only over they had home is against CSKA but I don't think that needs any explanations. Unicaja have 2 over and an under away but the overs are against CSKA and Maccabi and the under against Brose. Except for the head to head at 150 I mentioned, the teams as a rule go over only with very fast-paced teams. I think this game is similar to that one Oly and MIlan played yesterday. It's a game between two very good defenses, which I think will end closer to 140 than at +150. Details

When this game was supposed to be played originally, my pick was under 146.5 points. I still think it will stay under, but what's troubling me now is that Vichy have three overs on this margin in three home matches. They showed something in those matches - even though their coach is defensively oriented, they can't defend themselves against the tougher teams. Boulazac scored 84, Orchesien too, and Hyeres pushed it to 81. If there is a tough team, that's Bourg. Vichy struggle defensively against stronger teams, and Bourg can defend themselves very well, so I'm thinking about handicap. Vichy lost a home match to Boulazac by 8, away match against Le Portel by 17, conceding 80, and a home match against Hyeres by 8 in the last round. Yeah, they did beat Orchies at home and Denain in an away game, but the defeats were against two candidates for the upper league (Boulazac, Le Portel), and the serious Hyeres. Bourg lost their last match, but that's a plus. Whenever they'd lose, they'd react in the following match. That's why I think they'll be motivated, and won't underestimate anyone because they don't want a second defeat in a row. They are struggling a bit at the beginning of the season, but the quality is on their side here. They easily caught up -15 from the half-time against Roanne. They were leading by 3 a minute and a half till the end, and lost by 3. A plus for this bet is definitely that the home team's best center, Jones, might not play. I don't think this will be a tied up game. Details

One of the opponents lost three straight games but I think that is their upper hand here. The transformation that Strasbourg go through when they go on the road is amazing. They lost 6 straight away games both in the French league and Euroleague. They beat Fenerbahce, Real, and made a comeback from -22 against Zvezda home. They beat Antibes, Le Havre and Monaco in the league. On the other hand, there is Cholet, the team that lost the last 7 games and that has struggled with injuries, form and rhythm. They lost the last three away, two by 25 points to Limoges and Dijon. Strasbourg are capable of doing at least that. Now, I've decided for a second half handicap for two reasons. First of all, I expect Strasbourg to open fiercely since they know how embarrassing some of the previous wins were. Secondly, there is no guarantee that Cholet won't start holding back at +20 to put the total handicap in danger. They will face Bayern in a very important EL game on Wednesday. Even that downside at Strasbourg (5th game in 12 days) won0t mean that much in the first 20 minutes. The first half stats don't go my way (Strasbourg are home at -14 Asvel, -3 Antibes, +4 Le Havre, +20 Monaco; Cholet away +6 Asvel, -9 Orleans, -12 Limoges, -4 Dijon) but because of everything I said before, I choose to turn a blind eye to that. Details

I remember those Sibenik derbies when I wrote unders even at much lower margins, actually this has become a default bet for me in my following of the A-1 league. The city derby in Sibenik always brings about high tensions. As I said in the preview, there is no pretty basketball there and it pretty much turns into a war for each point. Since Sibenik joined the First league in 2013, these teams faced each other seven times. The totals are - 134, 116, 137, 120, 129, 156, 151. These last two went up to higher number of points, but they were blowouts. Just to clarify right now, I am knowingly going slightly against the stats here which is not entirely in my favor but I will try to break it down a bit. Sibenik have four out of seven overs on this margin, but they went over against teams that are usually over (Skrljevo, Zagreb, Kastela, Gorica). Jolly are at 4-4 as far as this margin is concerned. They went over against Split, Skrljevo, Gorica and Zagreb (161). Only Split don't fit in here because they are not an over team, but Jolly conceded 97 in that game (1st round). They have been looking better defensively lately and in the last four games, they were under 80 conceded in three games, the stats are not clearly offering the under, but I cannot see this game at over 160 points. Details

I think this margin is the consequence of the two home games Vichy played with Boulzac and Orchesien that finished with a lot of points. Coach Romeyer said they cannot play like that in the long run following the 86-84 win over Orchies. He is focused on defense but his team hasn't been doing consistently so far. I think it's important that Vichy played an under with Bourg in the Cup (123), with Le Portel (143) and Denain (140). Also, they played two unders with Lilles in the Leaders Cup quarterfinals. They have 3/4 overs at this margin in LC group stage but they played Roanne and Saint Chamond, who are more offense-oriented. Hyeres are not. They never let me down when I chose to go with under at their games this season. The coach wants tough defense, they have 4/5 unders at this margin in test games and an over against a lower-league side. They have 3/4 unders in leaders Cup and 3/4 unders in the league and an over with the third-tier Aix in the Cup (154). The home team want redemption, the coach will want them to play tough defense, HTV do that anyway most of the team and this should therefore finish at 140 or less points. Details

Lille's away game in Boulogne aside (they allowed a lot of points there twice since those kind of teams do not suit them). Three out of the other 3 games finished at under 127 points three times, home at 116 and 126. If we include Leders Cup, they have 3/4 unders in the group and 2/2 in QFs against Vichy. saint-Quantin on are 3/4 unders in Leaders Cup as well and 2/2 in QFs against Boulzac. Both in the Cup finished at unders at this margin, all three in the league away. One in the Cup and one in the championship against fast-paced Evreux finished at 137 and 140 points. Lille were allowing an 57,5 average of 59,7 points until the Bolougne game, at 59,7 in the two league home games. Saint-Quentin hit 60 points home and allow 70.The friendly game in preseason finished at 129. Saint Quentin need to do well here since they're 0-5, which means they cannot be relaxed about this. The coach talks about defense a lot, just like Asceric. Lille are tired and top scorer Price (18p) might not play. The visitors will maybe be without top scorer Davis (13,6). Details

I was having a hard time choosing between total and team under. Total under is a pretty good pick, can be taken for 4-5/10, but the team under is better because it's very convincing statistically. First, the things that aren't working. The first match between the two ended at 158 points, with 85 by Panathinaikos, but that match was done after the first period that PAO won 30-15. After that, the match was tied up, but the Greek team scored 55 points till the end. If not for the crazy first quarter, they'd have about 75 in that match. Now, Pinar at home and Pinar away are very different. They are perfect victims away, but they're killing it at home, with their defense first of all. They left Barcelona with 62, Zalgiris with 68, Stelmet with 66. PAO are much better at home. Besides scoring 85 to Pinar, they also scored 91 against the slow and tough Zalgiris, in the blowout, too. Their away matches - 70 against Kuban, 52 against Barcelona, 68 against Stelmet. This match is extremely important, both teams' scores are 2-4, and a winner would take a huge step toward the Top 16, so I expect to see a war. PAO do play better offensively with Đorđević this season, but the statistics are what they are. Not in the Euroleague matches. I simply don't see this match ending with high numbers, and that means that guests won't go over the margin set either. Details

Once I gathered all the information, I am thinking about a point handicap. Had Fener not so drastically defeated in Strasbourg, this would be one of those matches in which a handicap would be a good option, but now it seems like a great one. After the slap Fener got in a match against Demir Büyükčekmece, they have shown a big level of motivation in the league in the next two matches, they beat Bayern away with +17, and Pinar at home with +22. Strasbourg are terrible in away matches. And not just in Euroleague, but in the home championship too. If Chalon could have beaten Strasbourg with +12, then Fener can with +20. Of course I'm not basing my bet on that, but it's significant. As for Euroleague, Strasbourg lost with -22 against Zvezda, -15 against Bayern and -26 at Khimki. Fener never covered this handicap at home, but I have nothing to hide - I'm counting on their special motivation because of the tough defeat in the first head-to-head. Besides, if we're going to talk quality-wise, Fener are one or two class above Strasbourg. A good option is also Strasbourg's team under at 68.5. They always struggle in away matches (59 against Zvezda, 61 against Bayern, 62 against Khimki), and Fener left Real at home at 66, and Bayern at 67. Details

I think this will be more of a tough battle than an attractive game. First of all, this is the greatest derby in the french second division at the moment and a win in this game will send a message for the rest of the ProB league. Bourg just lot to Denin. The responded following the first loss in the season to Toulon to win 6 straight games and crushed the opponents through defense. They limited Fos to 56, Hyeres to 49, Fos to 73, Orchies to 66 at home twice, Saint-Quentin at 64. Their only official over at this margin was against fast-paced Poitiers and against Fos away when they already secure the next round in Leaders Cup in 10 official matches in total. Boulzac are more dangerous in defense this season, Michon improved that segment but even like that they payed all three important games as unders in Leaders Cup. The last round home against Poitiers doesn't count as they had the QFs secured and lost that game by 12 points after conceding 96. They have an under in the Cup with a lower-division side and over with Limoges (86 conceded points). They are 2-1 for overs in the league but Vichy are nothing like Bourg. Motivation will be big on both sides, the game is important. We have one team that records unders and Boulzac, who play the important games at less points. That is enough for an under for me. Details

Erden hit only 3 points in 19 minutes against Sassari in the first game (1-for-3 from the floor and 1-for-4 from free throws line). The beginning of the season when that match took place was not brilliant for this center. I'll attribute that to fatigue from Eurobasket where he played for Turkey. he finished with 4 points against Brose, 5 against Gaziantep in the league, 8 against Fener, 4 against Usak. And then things turned around. He hit 17 against Unicaja, 15 against TED, took a break against CSKA (only 3) and then went on with good games - 14 points against Yesil Giresun, 16 against Maccabi, 14 against Selcuk. The downside here is the fact Darusaffaka's coach changes his canters a lot, but Aldemir got 4 and 6 minutes in the first two games. Mahmuti is clearly sparing him for now. Savas is not so good on the offensive end, just like Slaughter. It is no surprise Erden goes over this margin easily in 15-20 minutes he gets on the floor. If the centers didn't chance that much, this would be 7/10 but like this, it's 5/10 because Sassari are horrible at center positions. The coach is angry with his tall players and it's questionable how the Italians will do in the paint today.
Yuo can find this bet with a point lower margin at Germania. Details

I tried to look at this game from as many angles as possible and concluded that Sassari can win this only if Logan and Haynes have a crazy shooting night. But Darussafaka have enough weapons to stop the two of them. The team from Sardinia are doing badly, they are recording one defeat after another. They are on a 4-game home losing run (covered this handicap in all of them). Brindisi won by 17 points, CSKA by 29, Venezia by 12, Brose by 17. Their game simply doesn't work against serious teams and Darussafaka are a serious team. The acquisition of Wilbekin and Aldemir made the roster even better. They lost to Brose and Unicaja by double digits in Euroleague but beat Maccabi by 11 points in the last EL away game. I think that win was a turning point. it showed them they can do well because Darussafaka went on to beat Selcuk by 15 points in the Turkish league next. They will control the rebounding and strip Sassari off transition. They are better physically and will play aggressive defense. Sassari's last season and this one show that they are not good enough for this competition. Details

Even when they had Gardner, Julien, healthy Spain, Hyeres last season - Toulon were workers who didn't care about the beauty of basketball, but played firm defense to get results. Their coach Legname, who promoted that kind of the game, left, but his long-time assistant Milling took over, and is following in his footsteps, more or less. They stayed under this margin in four of five games in the preseason (over 153 in 96 scored against the second league team), in three of four in the Leaders Cup, and got eliminated by Aix at 154 in the Cup. Two unders and an over against Charleville who like faster game in the league. Saint-Quentin changed their game style when Sousa came. They're no longer a run'n'gun team, but try to be disciplined defensively. It worked well in the preseason, they only went over this margin against Boulougne and the third-league team Berck, they stayed under in all five LC games (four in the group, one quarterfinal), they stayed under in both Cup games, three of four in the championship. They went over only against Boulougne at home, accepting their faster rhythm. They have nothing to accept here because Hyeres don't force fast game. And since this match is important for both teams, neither will rush into anything. Let's just add that this pick is available with a two-point higher margin with some bookmakers (153.5), but I'll go for the lower one since it's more widely available. Details

A lot has changed since last season when these two teams met for the first time. First of all, Cantu have their top player Ross back on the team (missed the game in Sweden with an injury). Secondly and more importantly, the Russian tycoon Gerasimenko is now at the club, which immediately made their ambition bigger. They acquired Hodge, who will improve the already good back court on the Italian team. Cantu are not so good at center positions but that won't be that obvious against Boras as the Swedes have Vitalij at power forward position and Maraker at 5. Hats off to them but they don't possess top quality that can make a difference here. Boras will play another run'n'gun game because that is all they know. Cantu can deal with that. They limited Le Havre to 64, Kapfenberg at 70 points. Boras lose, as a rule, when they are faced with pressure. They lost by 10 to Sondertalje, by 10 to Uppsala and by 13 to Le Havre. They never hit over 78 points in any of those games. The defense was as bad as usual and that saw them lose. I think that's a winning combination for us here. Details

Considering these teams' profile, the margin is a few points too low. We remember when Pieno were very offensively oriented last season, and after a slow start this year, they're showing their old face in the last matches. They went over this margin in four of the last five matches, and the only one that stayed under was against Helios who are defensively oriented. Helios kept Turow under the margin, too. They kept Pieno at 170, and at 168 in a home match against Ventspils who are defensively oriented on paper. They went over this margin in five of the last six league games, once thanks to the overtime, though, but still, their offense is their forte, and because this match is so important, I think these teams will keep with their usual strategies. Details