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The book makers spend a great deal of time deciding what to do with this game but, in my humble opinion, didn't do their task right. This total points margin is a bit too high for a game in which one of the opponents is the Netherlands. They are a team that can stop anyone through good defense but doesn't have a good offensive end. There's a lot of one-one-one game, lots of forced and solo attempts and confusion in offense. They are simply very limited in offense. Romania, on the other hand, are weak. Hungary beat them by 50 and 39 points in preparation matches (Romania scored 43 and 55 points). They will not score much more against the Dutch, I think it will be around 50-55 points because Oranje limited Austria to 56. On the other hand, the Dutch scored 54 against Finland and 60 against Austria. Even if they somehow make to 70 today, which didn't happen in those two games or the three friendly matches, this under still seems good. Details

This one is a bit late, but only because I wanted to give myself the time to really think this through, from all angles. The final conclusion is that Luxembourg will win this with a handicap, and here's why. Most importantly, according to what these two teams showed in the European championship so far. Portugal beat Kosovo by 15, lost to Montenegro by 21, barely beat Georgia by two points. Luxembourg lost to Montenegro by eight, and crushed Georgia by +23. Luxembourg left a better impression so far, and nobody can tell me otherwise. The coach is talking about the best generation in who knows how many years, and they can be among the top eight, which would be a great success. Portugal base a lot on their defense, but Luxembourg are tricky to guard, all five of them are scorers, they'll pull Relvao from the paint, and besides the long distance shots, one of their strengths is penetration, either through the drive and kick, or drive and lay-up. The only thing that Portugal have advantage in is their height, but Luxembourg will definitely guard every of their players, and solve the match by leaving room for the back positions. Portugal have 12/68 three-pointers (17.6%), and they'll be playing without their main scorer Da Silva who was the only one able to score behind the 6.75m line. Details

The team under at Georgia is a slightly better option but since this is more widely-available, I'll go with total under, for which I also have good reason. Georgia played a run-and-gun game with Luxembourg, which ended up being very productive. But that was a meeting of two opponents that both wanted running. Portugal are well aware that they cannot allow Georgia to finish with 75 points because that could see them lose. The coach himself said this need to be a game 5-on-5. He warned about Georgian players making the run for the paint but that is Luxembourg's weak point since they don't have tal players and could't stop that. Portugal have Relvao and aggressive defense on the perimeter. On the other hand, they cannot score much. They went 8-for-45 from the three point range in two days (17.8 %) and now don't have the top scorer Da Silva. Even if Portugal forces this to 80, which I don't think will happen, Georgia will struggle to score over 50 against the team that limited Montenegro to 25 points in the second half. Details

I'm not sure where this margin is coming from but I assure you that Macedonia are not better than Portugal by 12 or more points. Montenegro's strong suit is the key, which caused a lot of trouble for Luxembourg. Portugal are no Luxembourg when it comes to athleticism. They are physically powerful and have the best player at this tournament in the key. That boy is already 'an animal'. He started played basketball only two years ago and already made it to US. That is how good he is. There are another three players who are close to 2 meters but even the shorter ones can jump high. Portugal play very aggressive defense bordering fouls and I'm pretty sure Montenegro won't go with 4-for-4 from the three-point range at the start like in the Luxembourg game. I think this game is closer to being decided by 2-3 shots than at this margin. I would not even be surprised with Portugal complicating things for Montenegro today. Besides, the bookmakers are expecting a meeting with very little points (126.5 is the margin) and I don't see how Portugal could lose badly like that. Details

They might have dragged me to this pick with their friendly matches, but I still think this margin is missed by a few points. So, these two teams played in Luxembourg a week ago, and the home team won 79-71, and 89-80. That's far under the margin offered here. I thought it would be set to about 145-147 points, and then I wouldn't take it because that would be close to realistic, but I will use this margin. Luxembourg have five scorers on the court, no center, and their game looks like what South Korea do at U19 championship. Their rhythm isn't that fast, but it's pretty fast for this level of competition. They go to the back, try to play fastbacks, shoot a lot of three-pointers. The coach himself said that they can do better than the yesterday's 5/29. Georgia didn't play this EC yet, but they had three matches in the preparations. Those two against Luxembourg, and they lost 73-77 to the Belarus. So, none of them was under 150. The coach complained about the height, which means they'll go for a faster rhythm, and he confirmed that when we asked him whether he's going to play fast. There are lots of arguments to bet on over in this match. Details

There is a difference in quality between these two teams after all. Portugal have a good roster and they're one of the candidates for Top 3. This is a debut for Kosovo and given their performances, they have nothing to stand up to Portugal with. The Portuguese are physically impressive while Kosovo have speed but their lack of quality (both tactical and technical) simply neutralize it. Portugal had all kinds of results in test period but they fact is they beat Austria (who are better than Kosovo) by 11 points, as well as the No.1 favorites Hungary by 12 points. That proves they can do well. This is the first game and I don't think Portugal will hold back. Kosovo lost only one friendly match against Bulgaria by seven points but the other one was more realistic (lost by 40 points). I think anything under 15-16 is an unrealistic outcome here. Details

I had some doubts about Finland and their defensive quality because I got used to the run'n-gun from them but talking to their coach made me realize they are relying on the defensive end a lot. I saw a good defensive transition and aggressiveness in their practice sessions as well. They played friendly matches with Finland's B team and managed to limited them to 56, 65, and 68 points. Finland played only Denmark at less than 120 points, they were one point over this margin against Sweden and went over 170 only against Iceland when they conceded over a 100. The Dutch don't have enough offensive quality to try and outrun the opponents, they will try and be tough Both teams said the first game is very important and I don't expect a crazy pace today. Details

The Greek's strong side is obviously their defense. They depend on Charalampopoulos and Dorsey too much offensively, and they, like the rest of the team, spent too much energy yesterday. Greece scored 76 against the US, it went to over even though the first half-time was deep under. But the Greeks were forced to take too many risks because they had to catch up. They shot 25 three-pointers, scored ten. Both numbers were under average for them. It will be an even match with Turkey, they definitely see their chance for the bronze and I expect them top level defensively. Due to fatigue, and the style. Besides the US, the only other team they went over with on this margin were Tunisia, and that was because they scored 100. The Turks' attitude "we're good, we'll win even if we play bad" finally came back to bite them. Croatia scored 91 points and the Turkish defense were nonexistent. But, the Croatian offense are better and more versatile than the Greek, and it makes sense that the Turks will react after yesterday's disgrace. They conceded 64, 65, 51, 63, 70 and those 91 in the championship. Their defense is their strong suit, as well. It's important to mention that these same generations played last year's EC U18 group in Turkey. The Turks won 68-64. Details

I recently joked how these U19 Greeks could take even the Denver Nuggets to an under, and something along those lines can be said about Iran. They're aware of their offensive limitations, where they depend on Yousof Vand and Rezaifar, but that's far from pretty numbers. Iran scored most against Serbia here (70), and all the other matches stayed under 65. They left USA at 83 defensively, conceded 86 against Croatia, 83 against Serbia, and those are all good teams offensively. China scored 59, Turkey 73, Egypt who force running and fastbacks 62. The Dominican Republic don't seem convincing in these playoff, they're not motivated so they won't force a faster rhythm. They scored 78 to Tunisia, but that's Tunisia. And as irrelevant as the match for the 13th place might seem, Iran are motivated, they showed it against China yesterday. They've got five out of six unders on this margin, the Dominicans three out of six, but they went over against the surprisingly fast Serbia, Korea who always go over, and Italy with 55 points in the third period. These last two in the playoff stayed under 138. I expect Iran to force their rhythm because they're motivated, and nobody managed to make them play their way except for Serbia. Details

This is a pretty straight forward game. The first one finished at almost 200 points, Korea cannot defend Serbia in back court, as the first game proved. Serbia didn't try a lot from the three point range, made 5 out of 6 attempts and still finished at 113 points. Coach Bucan was insisting on fast transition yesterday as well as his team took on Iran. There should be a lot of free points for them today because there will be a lot of rebounds. Korea are not backing down from their fast-paced game. They played China yesterday in a game that finished as under, which I kind of expected since it was Asia's derby match. Also, China's efficiency was horrible. They don't have real motivation left anymore and I think the margin is completely off and should be taken with a somewhat higher stake. Details

I have to admit that the Canadians are unclear to me. They tried to win the game against Croatia a World Championship quarter-final, with the offense. Either the scouting team did a bad job or they were going after the surprise factor. But the consequence was that the Croats scored 48 points until the halftime, and 84 until the end. Defense, that hasn't conceded over 71 until then, was nonexistent so even though yesterday I praised the Canadians and their performances, yesterday's game demonstrated a level of immaturity. The Australians are a great surprise of this tournament with their aggressive defense, but yesterday's defeat ended their quest for the medal and I expect that their intensity will drop. These two teams faced each other int he first round, it was a high-stakes game and it ended on 145 with a lot of nervousness and shooting-wise imprecise first quarter (17-8 for Canada). They are now playing for 'peanuts', it doesn't matter if they'll be fifth or eighth and I don't think either of the teams will be trying too hard, especially not Canada who saw themselves in the fight for the medals and the remaining two games are a 'necessary evil' for them. If they were defensively nonexistent yesterday in an extremely important game, it's unlikely they will be at a high level today... Details

Even though their ambitions got smaller after Mazalin and Žižić injuries and Bender not playing, the Croatians are still hoping to get to the semifinal and one of the medals, but that doesn't seem likely without these three. They did score 111 to Egypt, 86 to Iran, but those are weak teams. They scored 81 to USA, but that was a blowout anyway, and the Americans weren't that into that match. The round of 16 against China showed some weaknesses, but Canada can be much better defensively, and we'll probably be seeing a lot of zone they were using in the last two matches, because the Croats don't have a good back shot. Croatia depend on Božić - Zubac a lot because Arapović isn't playing as well as expected, Slavica can't score anything, the point guard Filipović is only looking towards the hoop when he has to... And that's not enough to outplay Canada. Besides, Božić said that the Canadians aren't that good creatively, on the set defense. Their forte is fastbacks and transition, the open court, and the Croats know they can't try and outrun them because they're just not good enough in that segment. Just taking a look at the Canadian results shows what their strength is - they didn't concede over 71 in four matches, and they left the powerful Italy at only 54. Only the match against Korea went over, but that can't be compared anyway. Today's match is the one for the semifinal, and to face the winner of the match between Turkey and Australia. Details

Finishing in spots 9 through 12 or 13 through 16 is not the same thing. That is why this games matters. Argentina proved they can do nothing offense-wise here, their defense was their strong suit even during the preparation period. If something is working for them here, it's defense. The offensive end is doing badly, with two point shooting of 34%, and three point shooting of 19%. I don't expect that to change overnight. Vauleta will probably be out today, which will result in a situation similar to that one from Fiba Americas U18 championship last season. These two teams met in the game for the bronze medal, which the Dominicans won 64-53. Good defensive ends and poor shooting were main characteristics of that game, which is what I expect today as well because the Dominicans are well below the average with 46% of two point shooting and 31% from the three point range. They met Argentina many times and coach Ginobilli know all the strong suit the opponents have (one-on-one game, athleticism and fast pace) and has what it takes to stop that, like Greece did for example. The Argentinean defense is not at that level but they can do a good job. The Dominicans seem to be a team for overs but the game against Korea should not be taken into consideration. The Serbs didn't manage to dominate through defense after underrating the opponent. The game against Italy finished at 155 points, 55 of which were scored in the 3rd quarter. I don't think any of that will happen today. Details

I jokingly said that this Greece would force even the Denver Nuggets into an under. Sadly, I had a chance to experience that against Korea. Greece even limited the Dominicans, who scored 77 against Serbia, to 65 points. It is not surprising since the Greeks are lead by Papatheodoru, the coach of top league club Kifisija and the man who is completely focused on defense. I hoped for a more relaxed first round game and the Korean run and gun making it more productive but it finished at 138 points. The Dominican Republic game finished at 135. Greece are now to play the game of the championship. The win over Serbia would get them in a great position and semifinals would be jsut around the corner. Papatheodorou was very clear about everything starting with defense. The Serbs weren't brilliant here so far in defense bt the opponents activated the Balkan mentality. Things should be very different today because Bucan says the game will be different against more serious opponents. What I said about Greece goes for the Serbs as well. A win today would make their road into semifinals much easier. The top defense player Lazarevic is close to his top form, which is good for this tip as well. The U18 EC game between these teams that had almost the exact same players finished at 143 points (group stage) and at 115 in semifinals. I think this game is comparable to that semifinal importance-wise. I won't talk about the two test games as the teams weren't complete, even though they didn't finish at 135 and 110 by accident. Details

Korea showed their true colors in the second round game even though I expected them to do it in the first one against Greece. They played a game at 196 points against Serbia. It was a proper run-and-gun basketball on both sides. You know it takes two to have a fight and basketball is no exception. In order to have a game with a high number of points, both tams have to want to play. And I think that is the case today. The Dominican Republic are athletic, fast, and not afraid of engaging into outrunning. I said a lot about Korea already and they will not back down from that today. On the other hand, they will not be able to defend every time the Dominicans rush down past them 1-on-1. I expected the margin to be a few points higher and this should be taken advantage of. I cannot say anything about the result importance because spot 3 and 4 don't make too much of a difference regarding the next opponents - Italy or Canada. It's really irrelevant which one of them will it be. That is also a good sign when expecting a productive game. Details

Yesterday Australia lost to Canada, but they bought me. They are a team who never give up and never quit, who kept up with the score through the entire match, who a couple of times turned the score over... But Canada scored a couple of shots from some semi-distance in the finish so in the end Australia lost. But this Australia has the potential; besides, they played the World Championship finals (mostly this generation; only Humphries is missing from the important ones) against USA last year and lost with only seven points of difference. Before that they beat France, Greece, Spain... According to my modest opinion, all of those are teams who are quality-wise above Italy. They have great individuals such as Flaccadori, Lupusor, but that's nothing to be amazed with. This Australia have the guts. They showed that against the Canadians. Although they're physically weaker on paper, they grabbed 21 offensive rebounds, and Italy is short on tall players. True, Italy beat Tunis yesterday, but that was expected. Australia know that their biggest threat will come from three-pointers so they will force Italy to come under the hoop, and they managed to stop there the physically stronger Canada. I see Australia as the winners. An alternative option is the handicap +3.5 as a security, and Australia over 72.5. Yesterday they scored 71 points with 5-for-25 three-pointers. Details

Korea are aware they're outsiders, but they're not planning on giving up the fast speed and the high pace just because they lack the height against Greece who, although by "default" their teams are very defensive, showed they don't mind playing fast. Korea are the ones who make everyone run around. Just for comparison, Greece once scored 80 points against USA who are very aggressive in the defense; they played at 170+, and they managed to score 80 points against Croatia at 164 total. They scored 80 against Australia (a total of 147), and scored 75 against the Croatia's U10. If Dorsey didn't get the green light to play, I wouldn't dare to write these things because without Charalampopoulo and the naturalized American that's around 30-40 points less. But Dorsey showed in preparations that he can score 20+ to anyone. He should like the run and gun game, and they have the very good Stamatis in the back line. Not to even mention the difference in the paint. They will probably score easy points there. Just for comparison, in the last World Championship in 2013 in Prague, Korea conceded in the first round 106 points against Croatia, 104 against Spain, 93 against Canada. It all went smoothly over 170. One Senegal scored 88 points against them in the playoffs, ended up over 160... Of course, these are not the same line-ups, but if the players have changed, the gameplay hasn't. Details

As I said in the preview, this series should be marked by defenses. It somehow seems most logical to me to bet on the under in the first game which is extremely important when the best-of-three series is played. Boulazac were more offensively oriented last year, but the change of coach and some changes of the team resulted in them turning more towards defense. Denain have the fourth best defense of the League and they concede 71 points on average. Boulazac have stayed in the under six times in their last 10 home games, and they went above it by one point against Angers, 4 points above against over team of Charleville and against Antibes and Poitiers. The latter is also an over team. Denain were below this margin in seven of ten away games (I am not counting the matches in which both teams went over because of overtime). Michon's squad finished both games against Roanne at under 140 point, and Denain finished at 140 and 114 against Orchies. Both of their head-to-head games this season finished under 132 points (131, 128). There are a lot of arguments on the side of the under, and we should add to that the earlier mentioned importance of the game and this is a nice bet for me. Details

I personally played a lot on Roanne in this finish of the season. There were a lot of hits, a lot of misses as well, but I still have a good opinion about that team. With King, and earlier acquired Tchicamboud, they got first league experience, and that is crucial for play-off games like this one. I am not claiming they will win today's away game against Boulzac (although I wouldn't be surprised), but for me this is a difficult play-off game that will come down to a ball or two. The handicap is definitely too high for me because Boulzac are not better than Roanne as far as the roster goes, they are close form-wise. It's not irrelevant to mention that Roanne won both of their head-to-head games in the regular season, and they were weakened then. Grant didn't play in their first game, and now present King and Tchicamboud weren't there as well. Grant, Jackson, Young, King and Tchicamboud weren't in the second game (Carter and Martin who aren't here now have played then). Boulzac didn't have Kerckhof in that second game, and Gaillou played a big role in both games but he is suspended now. Details

There are very small nuances, if any, between these two teams. Both of them have only one good point guard (Cibona Ilievski, Zadar Bašić), their back lines aren't exactly their strengths, and their main forte is the paint game. They're pretty much equally good in that part. So, this should be an even match, and as soon as I saw the margin on the handicap, a little light bulb went off, we should bet on Zadar. In five matches they played against each other this season, Zadar won at home twice, and easily, they celebrated in the Cup on the neutral court, and lost by a small difference in Zagreb. The second time, in the Champions League, they had +10 at the break, and then fell apart in the last period. I don't think that will happen today, and the matches they played show Zadar could make life hard for Cibona today. Details