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A lot has already been said about Aris' game style. Prifitis base for everything is a tough defense, no matter the opponents. They have only three overs in 11 away games this season - the win over AEK, Banvit and in the Cup against Panathinaikos. None of those games have much in common with what we should see today. Kolosses' stats are not a good argument for this game but we have to take a better look at those games. When they win, they win easily, which resulted in 4 out of their 7 overs in 12 championship games. The other two overs are defeats to Panathinaikos and Oly away. The only close defeat that was an over is the one to Trikala, who are very fast and offense oriented. Also, none of those games have nothing in common with this one. Aris are not like Trikala and Kolossos won't win this easily by hitting 80, like in the games that were overs. Kolosses are very good home in defense and never allowed over 73. They allowed over 75 last season only to the top two teams. They never allowed over 75, not counting Dramas. The coach said the defense will be the key. He wants Aris to stay low and the visitors can answer to that. To sum up, Kolosses won the last four head-to-head games, none of them went over 142 in regulation time. The coaches have the same philosophy and it seems like that run will go on today. Details

Koroivos are a very defensive team at home, and since the became part of the elite last year, they didn't let many teams have their way here. If we take a look at the five home matches this season, only against the speedy Rethymn did they go over this margin. AEK, Panathinaikos, Aris.. All remained at low number, but Koroivos also didn't score over 67 points. Today I see a similar scenario, moreover taking the away team's situation into consideration. Schortsanitis's absence is not necessarily a plus for this bet, because with him PAOK are a slower team, but considering the circumstances, I don't expect rushing around here. PAOK will be without their best shot Vasiliadis, which is a big minus for the offense part, while the first playmaker Hatcher was ill, he didn't practice and he's far from his best state. It's questionable how much he will be able to contribute, but I don't expect him to impose a quick pace for the game. PAOK will try to impose themselves with their defense, they're aware they could have problems offensively. At six championship away matches this season they have a single over, in the city derby against Aris, when they had huge problems in the paint, which shouldn't be the case today, despite Schortsanitis being out. The remaining five matches went over 140 points, the same like the one against Faros in the cup, and I see something similar today. Last year it was 65-61 for Koroivos here, there were certain changes in the roster, but both Markopoulos' philosophies stayed the same, a patient game while basing it on a strong defense. Details

This is an extremely important match between two of the worst offenses of the league and I expect a huge fight for each point. True, Arkadikos have played the last two home matches at a higher number of points, they raised their average a lot, but in away matches they have a lot more problems and I don't expect that they will have such shot percentages in a match like this. Only with Kolossos they played at 153 points, after Kolossos with 23-7 in the first quarter solved the question of the winner. None of the remaining five away matches went over 136 points. Kavala's coach Giatzoglou puts emphasis on the defense, he's aware of the huge offense problems. This team didn't score over 74 points in 11 rounds, there are not enough foreigners and it's clear they will have certain problems, but they will have to deal with them in this math. There is no information about the trio who missed the away match in Athens, and I'm writing this bet as if they will be available, and the absence of any of them would favor it. Also, Kavala showed they can play good defense, they left Aris and Olympiacos at about 70 points, they additionally raised that segment of the game after they changed the coach, and their latest results are a consequence of game style and the opponents' quality. For such a limited Arkadikos they have solutions, this is a "to be or not to be" match and I expect them very aggressive. Both on average score 65 pointer per match, this is one of those key matches and I think they will go over 70 points here. Even though the rosters changed a lot let's add that both last season's head-to-heads stayed at 130 points. Something similar today wouldn't surprise me. Details

Faros are still undefeated this season and are still sail through the second division. They already eliminated 4 top-division teams from the Cup. All of their success is based on rock-solid defense that allowed 79 points in only one championship game (a blow out win over Livadia 105-79). They never allowed more than 67 in any of the 15 other official games (Cup included), including the games against Kolossos, Kifisia, the fast-paced Trikala, all of which are in the race for top league playoffs. Given the roster that is full of players who are over 30, the slower pace and the patient game are no surprise, which is why they won't back down from that style today either. On the other hand, that kind of a game has been a trademark of PAOK's for year now. They struggled quite a lot at the start of the season but Schortsanitis bough about stability for them. PAOK never allowed over 70 points in any of the 7 championship games, including the visit to Panathinaikos. Only the last game against the faster-paced Trikala went over 140 points (the point difference after the first quarter was 22). This will be a big test for Schortsainits. Since Markopouls talked about the importance of rebounding and pace and a patient game, this should turn into a battle for every point. The stakes are very high, I expect a big fight and even tough the margin seems low at first, I think a game at 130 points or less is much more realistic than one over this margin. Details

Aris are defensively even stronger team than they were last season, when they conceded a lot of points (84, 98, 92) at Piraeus and that was the main reason the games were played at around 150 points, still not much over this margin. So far in the season they only conceded 80 or more points against Banvit (96) in Turkey when the team complained about fatigue, but Banvit prefer faster pace and offensively oriented basketball. Also, all these problems with injuries have affected Olympiacos' efficiency, they haven't scored 80 points in the last seven games, and if we look at their more serious home games this season (Euroleague, Panathinaikos and AEK in the championship), they also haven't scored 80 or more against anyone. The option on their team under is also good, but since I believe they are capable of playing top defense and limiting Aris to around 60, or even less points, even better option for me is the overall under. Aris have regularly been left at lower numbers in Pireaus over the last seasons, and except for the last one, less important game against Efes, only offensively oriented AEK scored 71 against Olympiacos, Panathinaikos 70 at the start of the season in empty arena and no one else scored over 64 points at Piraeus. Of the home games, they went over this margin only against early wins against Lavri, Koroivos and Kolossos, and in the result-wise irrelevant game against Efes, they didn't go over 150 points in any game, but Aris are defensively better than all those teams. They went over this margin in away games only in the mentioned game in Turkey, in which they conceded 96, and against AEK whom they scored 83 points, which will not be the case here. This is a clash between the best defenses in the league, extremely defensively oriented teams that prefer slower pace and I see this game at 140 or less points. Details

St. Peterburg will try to match them with their defense. They played all the 20 games this season at 58 goals or less, and will definitely try to keep the game at low numbers. Medvedi are different than they were in the last seasons, when they'd easily score 40 goals. Today, they'll face a team who conceded over 29 only once, and none other over 26, and they themselves can play a really good defense, and leave St. Petersburg at 25. Medvedi had eight unders in ten games in the the Champions League against teams much more potent offensively than St. Petersburg. They played 60 against Meskov and 64 against Vojvodina in a match whose result didn't matter much. They went over the margin in the championship mostly when they were crushing their rivals, except Kaspi, who beat them when Maksimov was resting some players for the defense, and the goalies weren't in a great mood. And also Perm, against a fast team who are the only ones who took St. Petersburg to 58. I'm not worried by the yesterday's 60 because Krasnodar are one of the fastest teams, complete opposite of St. Petersburg. They'll try to slow this down as much as possible, and limit Medvedi to 35-40 shots. They didn't face each other this season, but last year, when the Medvedi were much better and played much faster, only two of six went over this margin. Both in the Cup, but that was the quarterfinal. This is the final, the stakes are huge, and I don't expect anyone to rush blindly. Details

Less than two months ago these teams met in Subotica. The odds were 1,15 at Spartak back then. They had the lead throughout the game and won 26-18 in the end. What changed since? Strumica lost 6 players who scored 12 out of 18 goals in that game. The Macedonians are weakened, they basically have no substitutes and I don't think this can be a close game, regardless of the fact Spartak are not a top-level team. Still, they have five points more, they've done better than Strumica so far. The game is to be played in Skopje, which means the home court advantage won't have a lot significance. I think Spartak will win again. The under at 27,5 goals at Strumica is a good option as well. But, that bet is not widely-available so I went with the win. Details

This margin is entirely a consequence of stats but it doesn't have much sense in reality. The first h2h these two teams played this season finished at 70 points. I expect another game at over 60, with Medvedi to score at least 35.Sungul can score the other goals because their offensive pace is fast enough. Two out of the last 10 h2h games finished with at least 61 goals and i expect the teams to keep it up now. The team over at Medvedi live just before the game is even 1-2 units better than this tip. Details

In a league that has so many tough teams, Morava and Zveuda belong to the few that place a faster-paced game. Morava have 4 unders at this margin (all those games were important), which significantly brought their averages down. They have 38 against Radnicki, 43 against Rudar and 41 against Pozarevac. When it comes to the top 4 teams, they played under only against Sloga away - 49 goals. Morava went under 55 home only in that Radnicki game. That meant a lot for them since Morava had only 2 points after three rounds and Radnicki didn't have any. The game that will be played today has no importance whatsoever for Morava. Zvezda can fail to reach playoff only through a miracle, Morava don't even think about that. That doesn't mean Morava won't try and win. Partizan played here in a game with similar circumstances a few years ago and Morava beat them in a game that finished at 59 goals. MOrava now meet an even faster-paced team. Zvezda have the best defense in the league which is capable of scoring 30 goals against any opponent. I think this will end at over 55 goals. Zvezda have 5 unders but two of them are against the second-best defense in the league and in the vrey important games like the one against Partizan (42), Rudar (53). The biggest argument against this tip is their game at 49 agains Radnicki. They conceded only 2 oals in the lat 15 minutes of that game, which explains the under. This could be a close game as well. Zvezda have 57 away against Pozarevac, Morava have 56 against the same opponents home. They also have 59 against Partizan, 55 against Sloga. Zvezda are faster than those teams and I think this should go over even if it's a close game. The game from the first part of the season finished at 35-27 after 34 goals were scored in the first half. The game today won't mean that much, especially to home team and Zvezda are pretty safe when it comes to a spot in playoff, which is why I think we should see another efficient game. Details

The 53.5 on the total of the match is, if you ask me, a consequence of Puerto Rico's results so far, and that's why we have the high margin for the first half. Spain is a lot more slower than other teams in the group, surely they will solve parts of the offense with counterattacks, but at the start of the match, Puerto Rico should be more focused.
On the other hand, the defensively best team in the group is capable of leaving Puerto Rico at a small number of points. I'm pretty sue that in the first half we won't see over 25 goals.
In the last six years, Spain never scored over 20 goals in the first half. All of the matches were far below this margin, and I think something similar will happen today. Puerto Rico can do their job in the defense department, leaving Spain at 17-18 goals max, which is going to be enough. Spain will try to put pressure on this with their defense from the start, they're capable of leaving Puerto Rico below five points in the first half. A lot more realistic thing, if you ask me, if half-time at 22-23 goals than over this margin. Details

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Jugovic announces fast pace and running throughout all 60 minutes, and they already played such head-to-head game this season. It stayed at 49 goals then, but goalkeepers were great, together made over 40 saves, and Milosavljevic especially stood out with 27 saves, among which are seven 7 meter throws. With an average day, the game would have gone up to 60 goals. I expect a similar scenario as in the last game, but I doubt Milosavljevic can repeat his efficiency. Radnicki, in home games, have an under only against Metaloplastika and in the last round against Zvezda. They were also under against Sloga, and their biggest minus is 19-19 in Plana against Morava. Jugovic also have four unders, but only in Pozega in away games. In other away games, they conceded 29 goals, they haven't been offensively as strong as in home games. Radnicki play faster and more efficiently at home, they were in a similar situation against Pozarevac a few days ago when the game was also very important and the game finished 29-29. Jugovic are also defensively more modest in away games, and they proved against Zvezda that they can compensate for that offensively. Last year at Jugovic's field the game finished 23-23, 39-30 here. The minuses for this bet are Radnicki's game at Plana, and Jugovic's last home games, but since Radnicki play faster and more efficiently at home, just like Jugovic away, these counter-arguments are that strong to keep me from betting on this. Details

I am writing this bet as if Basel will be complete, the absences of these players, especially of middle-back Goepfert and right-back Jurca would have been a bonus for it, because they are players who combined score over 8 goals per game on average. With and without them, we should expect much more aggressive Basel than they were a few days ago, because the debacle at Pfadi wasn't the first away game they easily lost, and then displayed a great performance at home. They are a team that show the biggest differences in away and home games. In the last few weeks they had 52 at Kriens, 39 at Stafa. They have four overs in home games: 54 against Kriens, 52 against Kadetten, 62 against Staf and 51 against Fortitude. 46 against Amicitia are indicative since their game style is between offensively powerful Kriens and Kadetten and defensively strongest teams. The game should be tight today, they were over only against the best offenses of the league and the worst teams, against whom they scored over 30. Today they are awaiting Bern who are weakened by Mitrovic's absence. They have one of the top 3 defenses in the league and they will rely on it. Of all of their overs, negative for this bet are 51 against Wacker and 56 against Otmar, but they had Mitrovic in both of those games, and they both went into over because of Bern's weaker defense and opponents efficiency, because Bern stayed at 24 and 25. Basel lack that offensive quality, especially without the mentioned players. I don't see them going over 25 here, but they are able to leave Bern at 25 or less here. Their first head-to-head game finished 32-16. Besides, this could be the key game for both of the teams in the fight for the sixth position, every offense, every ball will have great importance and considering the great goalkeepers and offensive limitations both teams have, I doubt this will go over 50 goals. Details

The first head-to-head was at 137 points and there's no reason why we should see not 15 points more. Compared to that match, both teams are without a few important players: Milano are without Gentile who scored 24 points at the time, and without whom Milano are offensively weaker but defensively better, and Olympiacos are without Young who at the time scored 18 points, and probably without Spanoulis (14) with Printezis who is still recovering (16 points in that match). Still, all of these absences affect Olympiacos less. In the last five matches they didn't allow more than 70 points, their raised their defense to a top level, and that especially goes for home matches. They're at an especially high level at home, with the help of fans they create pressure for the away teams, and I expect them to leave Milano at a low number of points. If we take a look at the home matches this season, only to Panathinaikos in the Cup, and in a match with no fans, they allowed 70 points, none other scored more than 64. In Euroleague they allowed 61, 49 and 52 points, and only against Kolossos they went over this margin, but at half-time they were already at +24. Their overs came from away matches against teams who tried or were forced to play fast (PAOK, Kutxa, Efes, Trikala, and partly Cedevita). Today that shouldn't be the case, I don't believe we will see rushing round. The first match was slow-paced, a total of 112 shots from the floor (with 35 free throws), and as I said, both teams are without some important offensive players, which is especially visible in Milano's game. The Italians have passed the over in four out of seven Euroleague matches, but all four came against Kutxa which are usually fast. It's significant that, except for the 137 against Olympiacos, Milano in Euroleague have 145 with Cedevita and 139 with Limoges who are more defensively focused than Kutxa and Efes. The fact is that in the championship those numbers are different. Against Europe's best defense in an away match that won't be the case, but Milano can stand up to them with their defense. This may be their last chance to pass, I expect them in a vigorous mood, but not in an edition with a lot of running around. They can leave Oly at 75 or less, but I think they will themselves hardly score over 70. Details

Difference in quality and especially motivation is crucial at handicaps this high. That is particularly important when the game is already settled. The home team want as convincing win as possible, knowing that the goal difference could play an important role in the end since the goal difference in the No. criterion if teams finish with the same number of points. Otmar made it into semifinals last season on account of the point-difference. That means they will have a lot of motivation, even when they are 10 goals ahead. Looking at the quality between these two teams, we can only conclude that it's huge-. Stafa are without a point in 12 games so far, which they lost by an average of almost 11 goals. They covered this margin in the Fortitud game away (lost by 7). Fortitud are the worst team in the championship. Stafa lost to Basel by 5 but Basel had 30-17 ten minutes before the end and then let go. That won't happen to Otmar today. Stafa have -26 to Kadetten, -14 to Pfadi, -13 to Amicita. They are much worse than other teams at the moment so we can't really compare results. Fortitudo are closest to them in quality and then beat Stafa by 7 goals as well. Everything works in favor of this handicap and I expect the point difference to be at least similar to the one from the first game. Details

Even though the league table would suggest this is a fight for the fourth place, the difference is too big. That's probably why the odds are set like this, but that definitely doesn't make these two teams equal. Kaspija are rising, they won eight of the last nine matches, their good game looks great, and they're the best team of the championship, right after the first three teams. They easily beat Saratov three times in the last three weeks, and Saratov are better than Chelyabinsk right now. The guests are in a tough spot financially, and there were even rumors about them leaving the league, but things are obviously not that serious yet, like with Kaustik who can't afford to play away. However, that lead to some players leaving already. Chelyabinsk beat Kaspija at the beginning of the season, but Kaspija weren't nearly as good then (their season took a turn after beating Medved), and Chelyabinsk were more complete, and in a better situation. Other than that, they beat Ufimočka and Sungul with minimum difference, teams from the bottom of the table. They also beat Krasnodar in the last round before the break, but they're in a bad form, and Chelyabinsk just took advantage of their defensive problems. Kaspija are a much better team than that, and Chelyabinsk didn't do well against teams that good lately. They were beaten in Saratov, and easily lost to Perm and Stavropol in home matches, staying limited at 21 and 22 goals. Perm are a bit better than Kaspija right now, but not much. Saratov and Stavropol are worse. This is a duel between a team in a great form who showed they can face anyone in the league, and a team who are struggling financially, and don't have as much quality as their opponent. The fact that Chelyabinsk haven't played a game for 40 days could work for the bet, but not necessarily, but it's definitely not a counter-argument, either. Kaspija had enough time to get ready after beating Saratov, and I definitely don't think this game will be as tied up as the odds are suggesting. Details

Spartak and Vojvodina played two games this season so far. The first one was a 27-27 draw in Novi Sad and the second one went close to 50 goals (20-14 44 minutes into the game) and the last one finished at 42 goals. This is much more than a game for spot 7 in the table, even though spot seven would mean a lot for both teams. This is a Serbian derby match and I expect a fight from start to finish. Both teams have higher percentages in SEHA league this season but that is due to some blowouts against the top teams, especially when it comes to Vojvodina. The head-to-head games are more important, just like those in which they stood a good chance of winning. We have that 17-17 from the first h2h, Spartak have 26-18 against Strumica, games at 44 and 47 goals against Hasselt in EHF Cup. The 32-29 results in the match with the fast-paced Borac is an exception. Vojvaodina played Strumica at 25-25, Nexe at 24-26 home (the game against Borac is an exception as well). Vojvodina+s game against Medveci (26-24) home in CL, 23-27 against Porto, 27-19 in Presov, 24-25 against Tatran are singificant as well, while the others that fell apart early on aren't. However, this game will be like the one in the Cup. Spartak played 15 home games last season in the domestic league, 11 of which stayed at 50. Only two went over this margin. I'm saying that because they didn't have a home game like this one this season, except for the ones against Strumica and Hasselt. The fact the team from Novi Sad is without the top middle back is just a plus for this bet. They struggled in offense a lot anyway and those problems could be even greater now. Both teams say that we should see a tough game now. Spartak worked on defense a lot and I think this will end at 50 or less goals. Details

Everything here suggests that we are in for a tough game. Firstly, this is a local derby in which a win always has a special significance, even when points are not that significant. This time points are extremely important, because regular season is ending soon, and Amicitia have returned into the race with yesterday's win over Schaffhausen, so neither Wacker nor Bern are safe. In previous seasons, their head-to-head games in Thun regularly stayed at 50 or less goals. It is known that Wacker play strong, sometimes rough, defense at home and their home games can often turn into fights. Except for the game against Kadetten, who are different rivals than Bern, Wacker didn't conceded over 23 goals at home, and they went into over only against weaker rivals. With Amicitia they stayed at 43, with Otmar at 47 and I wouldn't be surprised if a similar thing happened today. They were mostly under in away games against stronger teams, they were at 44 against Pfadi, 51 against Bern, and they went to 52 against Otmar who like to play faster at home. Bern have pointed out that they have to stop Wacker's counterattacks and look for their chance in positioning. In their first head-to-head game that stayed at 51 goals, 41 goals were scored in 53 minutes. We should also add that combined, the goalkeepers made 18 saves (27%), and the games in which only Wacker's or Bern's goalkeepers save as much are frequent. Bern have, in the meantime, improved their defense, and in the last four games they didn't concede over 25 goals. They stayed under against stronger teams, and the only exception is the game in St. Gallen when they conceded 18 already in the first half. There are several defensively oriented teams in the Swiss league (Bern, Wacker, Pfadi) and it is always profitable to bet on the under on this margin in their games. We have a clash between the second and third best defenses in the league, which conceded under 24 goals on average, with top goalkeepers, a great local derby, tradition of head-to-head games on out side and on top of all, points are extremely important. In these circumstances, this should stay under the set margin. Details

Kaspija won here 37-29 a few days ago, and they confirmed that win at home (31-28) and now we get this margin? Unjustified, in my opinion, because nothing changed significantly in comparison to those games. Kaspija are currently the fourth best team in the league, they have been in great form these past weeks, and in the last eight games, they only lost a point at Stavropol. After that game, Zaikin was unhappy with the team's performance, he pointed out that a lot of players faltered, but Kaspija still remained undefeated. Stavropol are a team in Saratov's range, maybe even stronger. It is not an empty phrase when Zaikin points out that this team is far from their abilities, Kaspija at their maximum level are capable of defeating any team in the league, which they confirmed with a win over Medvedi. Saratov don't have such range, they are a team that easily lost to top three teams, and we can add to that the Cup games against Kaspija. They won their points against teams from the middle and bottom of the league table. They will have a home court advantage here, but Kaspija celebrated on it all three times since Saratov joined the first league last year, each time by at least three foals and they know what to expect. This is, in my opinion, at least an even game, I think Kaspija are even closer to the win, and this margin also covers a minimal defeat. Details

This margin is correct statistically, but lots of reasons make me think this will go towards 60 goals. Kadetten are playing a key game for the Champions League in Ukraine in a few days, and I doubt they'll be fully in it defensively when they solve the winner. On the other hand, they've got enough offensive quality to score 35 against any team in the national league, as they did against Pfadi, the best team defensively. In matches similar to the one today, against the team from the bottom part of the league table, Kadetten were very efficient. 68 and 64 against Stafe, 62 and 58 against Fortitudo, 56 in the first part against Amicitia - that game had the rhythm for 60, but Amicitia lost Jpesen in the second half-time, and they're used to playing without him now (him playing would only be a plus for this bet). As for Kadetten's games aaginst weaker teams, the only exception is Basel away game, but the rookie are playing tough at home, and that was intense till the end. Kadetten have three unders on this margin, except that one against Basel, and the other two were against defensively great Bern and Otmar, with Bern being evened out for 45 minutes, and Otmar being the only ones to beat them in an intense game. Today's game should be solved early on, I expect Kadeten to lead by 5-6 by the half-time already, to rotate a lot in the second, and Amicitia aren't really known for being defensively good (third worst in the league). On the other hand, Amicitia are good offensively, and I think they'll score at least 25. They played 58 against Kriens, the second best offense of the league, in a Saturday's home match, and 65 in the first part of the season. Their udners were regularly against defensively oriented teams (Bern, Otmar, Fortitudo, Wacker, Pfadi), and were all from intense matches. When they crushed Stafa and Basel and were crushed by Kriens, it went over 60, so I expect something similar today. Details