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Even though the Wildcats have boosted their paint with the arrival of Trueman, which means we can expect slower game in the future, I see no such change just yet. The last three games they played without Knight had 199, 200 and 169 points. True, the shot efficiency for the Crocs was unbelieveable but the fact is they play a fast game. They make up for a lack of a good center with fast transition and easy points. On the other hand, the Tigers will be without Walker. I've already said a couple of times that Walker is their best defensive player and a lot of things depend on him. Now he's gone so the question who guards Ennis remain open. Worthington showed he can't stop Redhage, and Ennis is even more agile and there's no point for him to cover Ennis. Worthington should save himself in the defense and take more initiative up front and help Gouding who is expected to have another great game. Both PG's are really explosive and I think this game is closer to 170 than 160 as expected by the bookmakers. Too much has changed since their last game, both teams are in great shooting form and all of this makes this bet valuable for a medium to large stake. Details

All credit to Dellacqua on getting to the fourth round but I think it was more to fortunate circumstances than her brilliant play. True Casey was consistent but she was also lucky with her draw. In the first round she faced Zvonareva who had just returned to tennis, and in second round she faced Flipkens who had some problems with the weather and played her worst match in a long time. Even though Zheng was supposed to be the real challenge in the third round, she didn't feel to well and it was visible on the court. She was dizzy, and her movements were poor, which explains a two-set defeat. On the other hand, Bouchard had an easy first round in which she flopped against Tang. She showcased a somewhat better performance against Razzano to save her best tennis for the biggest challenge - the third round and Lauren Davis. When we look at Davis, who is renowned for he consistency from the baseline and great counter-shots, and yet she only managed to get four games, it's clear Bouchard can repeat that against Dellacqua. The only advantage for Dellacuqa I see here is the home court, but Bouchard has much more quality and she will force here to defend from the baseline. I think a convincing win by Bouchard should not come into question. Details

This will be the fourth meeting between the Wildcats and last season's champions the Breakers. The Wildcats won the last three games. The biggest point difference was 9 points. Nonetheless, I expect some things to change. The Wildcats were much better at rebound in all those three games, which is one of the reasons for their success. Redhage is not doing well recently, Knight is injured, and Abercrombie and Vukona managed to limit Ennis, which is why I expect the visiting team to do better in rebound this time around. Beside, the well-experienced Casey Frank proved to be a good signing,he will do his job both in defense and offense. Given the situation in the paint, the Wildcats will certainly try to set a faster pace. I don't believe that will change things on the court much tough. Johnson is always good offense vise against them, and because of Knight's absence, more attempts and lay-up are to be expected from him. Abercrombie's average is standard against the Wildcats, and if a faster pace game happens, the Breakers can respond accordingly. The Wildcats never managed to have the nine point handicap against the Breakers this season, and I don't expect it to happen today either, especially with the 'hole' in the paint they will need to patch up. Details

I have to admit that the odds on Sydney Kings are a pleasant surprise. A lot has been said about the Kings in the media where Young's arrival has been questioned several times as the club's slump coincided with his coming. However, it has already been proven that Young was the missing link to take the title. The Kings have the most complete team that have quality players on all positions. In perimeter positions, they have Magden, who was brilliant last season, and Carmouch, whose shooting has already been validated. Their power forward is Sam Young, who is among the top 3 players in the league while Ogilvy is their star player, one of the best two centers in the league. The Kings have shown against the 36ers what they are capable of. They played a perfect game in which everything worked - from defensive rebounds to fast transitions and easy points. On the other hand, we have the Taipans, a team which has already proven they can be a surprise. However, without Tragardh, they've gotten 2 defeats that have already put them far from the desired play-offs. Weight and Loughton do not defend the paint well enough and the Tigers and the Hawks managed to take advantage of that. Wilson and McCamey carry the load in offense and they can't make up for his absence. The Kings deserved to be the favorites in this game but I decided to go for a safer option of counter-handicap because of a possible tight end-game. Details

Na Li has shown in her first week of the new season that she will play somewhat more aggressive tennis with more action on the net. Winning Shenzhen and getting through the first round are a good indicator that she is even more dangerous this way. She beat Konjuh without giving her 100 %. Truth be told, she did offer a break-point at the start but it was her only one in the match She played an assured match from the beginning to the end, especially with her serve. In my opinion, she is no facing an even easier opponent. Bencic won only 54% of points after the first serve in her first round match and she had 47 % points on her serve. Considering that she was up against Kimiko Date Krumm who is one step below Na Li, it is clear that Belinda's serve is not good enough for this level. Na Li has an assured serve and I expect many opportunitie on the return of Bencic's weak serve. Everything points to an easy win and I believe she will be able to cover this spread against Bencic without too much difficulty. Details

Pledger's absence proved to be a major blow for the Breakers. Their aim was to reach the play-offs, but considering the rebound action the play-offs will most likely remain just a fantasy. The Tigers got a very tight win in the first head-to-head of these two teams. However, not a lot has changed since. Goulding had a really poor shot efficiency then and he was limited to 14 points - his lowest tally whole season. I expect him to do much better in offense like he did last season when he showed that Abercrombie cannot guard him adequately. Perhaps it is even more important to note that Worthington was brilliant then and now he's facing an even easier task considering the problems the Breakers are having Farrakhan has finally fit into the team and showed in the last game that young Johnson cannot stop him. The Tigers have a good starting 5, a much wider bench and should be able to break the downcast Breakesrs. An under for the away team is also a good option, but considering their problems in the paint, they might want to speed up the play. In any case, a convincing win for the Tigers should not come into question. Details

The odds for Riske are slowly lowering, and I agree. Pavlyuchenkova forfeited last week because of the left thigh muscle injury. First she played with a kinesio tape, and then in the middle of the match, she also put the bandage. The pain was too much, and she forfeited the match against Kerber. We didn't know if she'll try out in Hobart, but it seems she will. She needs matches before the Australian Open, and she has no time to rest. On the other hand, Alison Riske really resisted Ana Ivanovic. She had a break advantage in both sets and three tied set balls in the second. Even though she lost, it should be noted that she played great, and the only reason she lost in two sets was top class game by Ivanovic. Riske managed to take the initiative in certain moments of the match, and attack Ivanovic. If she does the same against the Russian who has problems moving because of the injury, Riske should win. I think the Russian will definitely play one set before she might forfeit, and the odds offered in Marathon seem like a great choice. Details

We have another typical situation in which the odds are formed only according to the standings. All facts point out that the Crocs should be the favorites. I would first like to mention the "curse" of the 36ers that haven't won in Townsville in a really longs while. Even though that's the least important reason, it still has an effect on their psyche. This was confirmed by the best player for the visitors Gibson when he said that he is hoping to finally win a game in "The Swamp". Another more important reason is the absence of Gary Ervin. Even though he's been having knee problems, Gary had a double-digit average number of scored points. When his team lost the first game against the Crocs, he was their best player and scored 22 points. Now he is gone which means Markovic will have more space up front. The only advantage for the 36ers is the pain where Petrie and Johnson outplayed the Crocs centers in every aspect. The Crocs defend the paint much better and I believe this difference will be much smaller. The tickets for "The Swamp" are sold out and everything points to an 11th win for the Crocs on New Year's Eve. Details

As is often the case in the NBL league, I think the bookmakers have taken the head-to-heads of these two teams and their standings too much into account. The Hawks had a chance to beat the Tigers four days ago and they lost the game due to lack of concentration in offense. Goulding showed he is hard to stop, but considering the offensive performance of his teammates, he cannot beat the entire Hawks team all by himself. The first reason for this bet is the home pitch of the Hawks. Even though they have the same number of home and away wins, the Tigers are much worse away which is reflected in the negative ratio. In addition the Hawks are at the top of the league in terms of three-pointers and they scored only 7 out of 22 in their last game against the Tigers. The second reason are the rebounds that should be a huge advantage for the Tigers. Davidson and Forman have shown they can control them and this should be crucial. I don't believe Rotnei Clarke will stay under 20 points once again and I expect more from Kevin Tiggs who has better stats at home. The Hawsk really need this game, they've shown major improvements in the last five rounds and they should be thee favorites here. Another good option is the under for the away team that should not come into question. Details

Even though this is the first match of the season for them, I think there's a high value of counterhandicap games in this match. Yvonne Meusburger showed a big progress last season, and also had the best placement in her career. Good results weren't an accident, but a result of a hard work and training. On the other hand, Barthel underplayed last season. Once again, she was losing nerves because of petty things and was giving up too soon. The main reason for this bet is Mona Barthel's shoulder injury. Even though she decided to play Auckland, Mona had a few services only in the second week in December. She's not hiding she had a few good practices and that will definitely show in her game. She showed how much she depends on the service in the finals last season where she lost five out of six last played matches, and against weaker players. Meusburger had a good quality pre-season, covered the handicap in the match played indoors where the conditions work for Barthel even more, and I believe there might be surprises here. Details

Even though the margin is 8 points higher than last week I am again convinced that we will see a game closer to 180 points than to 170. The reason is practically the same. Again, we have uneven match-ups that enable the teams to have a high percentage of field goals. I don't see why each of the two teams should try to slow the game down when it's not their style. Ennis have 12 free throws in their last game and they should have even more reasons to go this way as Knight is ready and this will give him more space. In addition, Johnson flopped in the last game and I expect him to contribute more in offense. Beal used lots of open shots and I doubt he will repeat 50 % field goal. I believe the Wildcats have a chance for another great offensive performance. I expect a lot from Abercrombie who has shown that he can't guard Ennis but can shoot over him without many problems. The Breakers play faster at home and I think it's necessary to make use of this margin that the two teams have surpassed in both head-to-heads so far. Details

I think the bookmakers paid too much attention to the stats and the league table in this match. It's true Taipans have six defeats in a row, but it's also true they were supposed to win four out of those six. Taking into consideration they played against the leading Wildcats twice, that row isn't that bad. What's more important for this bet to me now is the last match between these two. Then, Tragardh and Loughton were completely out of shape, and still outplayed 36ers centers. Taipans lost because of the awful last quarter which they lost with 14 points difference. Wilson played a good game, and he showed he could outplay Ervin last season. I'm coming to the main reason for this pick. Adelaide 36ers allow the most three-point shoots, and Taipans were the leading team with their three-pointer shoot percentage until a few rounds ago. With 36ers fatigue in mind, because they played an uncomfortable and difficult away game less than 24 hours ago, it's clear the home team will have more space in the offense. Besides, 36ers should be a bit slower in transits, so besides the counter-handicap, the away team's under is also a good option. Details

Even though both teams have been playing slightly better in the last few rounds, I think offense will once again decide the winner. Ennis is much faster than Abercrombie and will definitely attack the paint with more ferocity, and as a result either score or get fouled. On the other hand, Abercrombie is taller and a better shooter, and he'll do his job in offense as well. As for the other duels, Johnson proved he can get past Martin. He is at the same time one of the worst defense players in the league, so that duel shouldn't be especially tough either. Both teams are better in offense than in defense in the paint - their last head to head game in which Vukona and Redhage scored 25 points combined confirms it. We can't neglect the fact there were 58 free throws with 185 points scored in the last game. The margin for this game is set low, at only 160 points. The reason for it is statistics and I don't think it makes much sense. One glance at the match-ups reveals there will be a lot of ''holes'' in defense and the game will end with 170 points or more. Details

Although the Hawks managed to put up a decent resistance against the Wildats without Dvidson, I think they don't have much of a shot here. Truth be told, Clarke and Forman are in good form but aside from them, the Hawks don't have a quality player. Tiggs hasn't played a good game yet, and now he's facing the experienced Wilson on the other end who averages 14 points per game. In addition, Gliddon has played better than Clark so far so one can say that the Taipans have more quality on those positions. However this is not the only reason for this bet. The Hawks are definitely without Davidson and probably without Coenraad which means their paint is significantly weakened. Because of this, I expect faster basketball in which we'll see lots of shots from Clarke and Tiggs. The Taipans average 84 points per game while Hawks allow 89. In a fast paced-game, like the Hawks will push for the Taipans should do OK in offense and I think they'll score over 85 points with ease. Details

Even though the last two games ended at 169 and 178 points, this margin is still too high. There are plenty of reasons and I'll just mention some of the most important ones. The main reason would be the poor performance by the Crocs in the away games. While things are working out for them at home, their away games are a completely different story. They do not manage to impose their fast pace, they force the shot too much, and they contribute to their own defeat. The Kings took advantage f that and I believe the Breakers should be able to use that for the first time this season. The second reason is that the role of a first-team PG should be taken over by experienced Bruon. For some time, this role was covered by young Johnson who was doing well in offense but hasn't adapted to the defense. Bruton is more experienced, slower and he announced he won't push for a faster game. Even though they practice primarily defense, the Breakers haven't shown it on the pitch yet but I believe they soon will. Both games so far have gone under this margin and I believe the fact that the Breakers are a home team adds additional value to this bet. Details

I have to admit I liked the total points margin from the start. Melbourne average 159 points in their games while the Hawks get 167. Even though one of the reasons is that the margin is set well below the team averages, the remaining reasons are even more important. First of all, I'd like to mention the injury of Larry Davidson. Not only is he the leader of the team, he is also the first center and a very important part of the defense. They are very limited in the paint without him, and they will certainly push for the perimeter shots through Tiggs and Clarke. The two foreigners are extremely fast and they know how to do their job, at least in offense. Tiggs has already shown on several occasions that defense is not his strong side, while Clarke is also particularly offensively minded. When Chris Goulding and Worthington are on the other end, a pair of even better shooters, we can see that offense will dominate this game even though the Tigers are primarily a defensive team. I believe Davidson's injury is in itself a reason enough to take this over as the only way the Hawks can win here is through fast-paced game. Details

I believe this is a margin you don't see to often in the NLB and you have to use it. Even though the Crocodiles are the worst defensive team by far with 90 points allowed per game, and the best offensive team with 88 points, this margin is still too high. Their coach openly attacked his players to focus more on defense. They have been watching the replays throughout the week and have been working primarily on defense. Truth be told, this won't change them entirely but it shows they don't want a fast game. Their first game was at 178 points and that would be a realistic margin. Crocs had 20 free throws and a high field goal efficiency of 45 % and that will probably not happen again any time soon. On the other hand, the Breakers got into problems with fouls early on which sped up the game as both of their point guards got 5 personal fouls each. One should also take 36 turnovers and 30 points allowed from counter-attacks into consideration, which is also above the average for these 2 teams. I believe the bookmakers have gone over the top with this margin and that it is the best interest of both teams to finally show some defensive play. Details

Even though I've been wondering for a while which was the better option, under or guests winning, I've decided for the home team's under. The main reason is that the guests have one of the best defenses of the league and Taipans should be left without the offered margin even if the game is intense in the final moments. Besides having one of the best defenses of the league, Lucas Walker is finally ready to play for the Tigers. Their five now look intimidating because each of those five can score over 20 points and decide the game like that. The young Tomilson proved to be an excellent point guard, while Morrison and Goulding are good as usual. Ubaka is slowly starting to fit into the team as well, and that makes them have the quality to fight Perth for the title. Taipans have two wins, but they're not impressed. McCamey can easily close, and Gliddon has some back issues, so he won't be playing. Tragardh's minutes are also limited, and he can't bring the advantage needed in the paint. Even though everything points to the guests winning, the bet that the home team won't go over has an even bigger value. Details

Although they were the biggest favorites for the title prior to the season, the Wildcats did not impress in the season opening. True, they did win, but the team have lost their old identity under a new coach. Their biggest strength is no longer defense, they are now forcing a faster game with many transition points. Knight getting injured is a big problem from them, as that leaves much more room in the paint to their opponents. This is exactly the reason why the 36ers pushed playing in the paint, and used the perimeter shots less. The Kings roster, on the other hand, is in full strength. Gibson and Frye, important players for them, have returned, so the team is expected to play even better. They have brought in excellent reinforcements, and are very well covered in all positions. They will be at a great advantage in the paint in this game, enough to even win in my opinion. Apart from that, Magden is almost 100% ready, so they too have a shot at fast basketball. Bad performance in Perth Arena is not a good enough argument for me, as both teams have changed. I'm convinced that the Kings will cover the handicap margin, and would not be surprised if they even won and took down the "curse", Details

I think this match's odds aren't set realistically. The difference between these two players is almost 100 positions, and Karatantcheva winning in one match they had against each other isn't as important since it happened three years ago. True, Karatantcheva had a few good tournaments on the hardcourt lately, but those were against players a lot weaker than she is. She's been taking chances with the first service for a while now, and her hit is about 50%. It resulted in a lot of double errors, as well. Considering Knapp's strong hits, she'll definitely go deeper into the court when returning the second service, like she did against Voegele. It's clear Karatantcheva will have some big problems with the service. On the other hand, it's hard to expect another bad performance from Knapp, like the one against Voegele. She has two matches behind her in Linz now, and a few trainings in Luxembourg, and she must feel a lot better now. She has a better service and stronger hits, so I'd be surprised if she didn't win in two sets. I went for the more careful option, a handicap with a "poor" 2,5 games, because the bet could go in three sets, as well. Details