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It may not be logical to be writing a tip at a player who had 3 straight wins but I think these odds were set as if they are meeting on red clay. These conditions suit Ajla, which she confirmed last season by reaching round of 16. She moves well on this clay and I think she can develop her aggressive game in those conditions. Dulgheru is playing in these conditions for the first time and she will definitely struggle with adjustment. More passive players don't do well here, which is Alexandra will a have tough time defending against Ajla. Her serves are bad too and she doesn't not deserve to be a favorite to this level. I have to go with counter-handicap even in this situation when Ajla is a on a 3-match losing run and low on confidence. I'm sure she'll do her best in these conditions. Details

I wanted to go with the handicap at Bauru last month but I passed out on it after all. I won't be making the same mistake again for sure. I was worried about Mogi's good game back then since they are one of the top-quality teams in the league and the handicap was still double-digit. That is where the game was headed but the coach went cray at half time and they needed only 20 minutes to catch up and win by 22 points in the end. That is the best proof of how much better they are than the rest of this league, except for Limiera and Flamengo. Sao Jose tied two defeats and they did disappointing against France in every sense of the word. They are too dependent on the back court which will be inferior in this game and their attack is therefore not expected to do much. Bauru have the upper hand in the key as well and it's quite obvious where this game will go even before it starts. Bauru covered this handicap both times this season (point-difference of 19 and 28). I am convinced they will have it easy this time too, especially when the coach demands his team to do their best and when he is not reshuffling as much as before. Details

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Even though they should not be taken for granted, h2h matches are always an important factor in ladies tennis. They show the difference between players best. Venus is 6-1 against Stosur and that is the best proof that her game does not suit Samantha. The American has better and more powerful shots and always managed to find a solution for Stosur's great backhand. Why should this be any different? Venus displayed a better game in round 2 and responded better to these windy conditions. Stosur had ups and downs against Parmentier and lost a set but she should not have allowed that to happen. It is truly amazing that Pauline outplayed her like that in the second set in which Stousur seemed lost in long rallies. She has not found rhythm this season and isn't doing as nearly as good as before. I'm sure Venus will sail through to round three. Details

Gimnasia are a pretty bad team when playing away, but I still cannot agree with these odds. The visitors, who are in much better form, are aiming for spot two. Their three-point efficiency is particularly impressive, with Scala and others punishing untimely defense every time. Precisel that is the problem at Penarol. They are not that tough at center positions and tend to have clusters in defense, which creates problems against teams capable of settling the game through semi and far-distance shots. Gimnasia are definitely one of those teams. They have not done the last two matches badly, especially the one against Obraso. Konstzadt is doing great but even he will most likely not be able to get past Gimnasia's defense. Boccia had the fever yesterday an might not play today. Without him, Penarol don't stand a chance. Both teams are equal in the paint quality-wise, with visitors maybe having the upper hand because Clancy is capable of dealing with Penarol's tall players. Backcourt positions should make the difference here and Gimnasia are much better in that segment. They are in excellent form and I don't see a way for Penarol to win this easily. Details

I believe playing a handicap on Bencic is definitely worth a medium to large stake. While Belinda showed great improvement at Indian Wells, and continued in the same vein at Miami, Dellacqua did not play at all. Bencic finally found the aggression she lacked in the first two months, and has a rounded out performance now, something Hantuchova felt as well, being so powerless that she stated after the match that she does not know how to win a point against players like Bencic. The Swiss was calm in the key moments, and could go at the Top 20 with this performance. Dellacqua has not played since Kuala Lumpur. She did not play well at the start of the season, and her poor results were topped off by a defeat against Hsieh. She then took a 40 day break during which she undoubtedly trained, but did not play any competitive matches. Addding to that the fact she attended a wedding ten days ago, with her social network sites showing images from limos and parties rather than training, we see she is not in the right rhythm and I believe Bencic will take advantage of that. Details

Rodina never should have made it to main draw, to be honest. Scheepers won the first set (bagel) and took a 2-0 lead in the second one and then fell apart completely. She was frustrated by the medical time-out Rodnina asked for at 3-2 for Scheepers and from that moment on, she started making a lot more mistakes and rushing into things. More importantly, Rodina did almost nothing in rallies. Her second service is horrible and someone as good as Watson will take advantage of it. The Brit's game at Indian Wells was brilliant. She beat some great players there, her first serve is good, her shots are good-quality and that is why a lot is expected from her in Miami. The draw is pretty favorable (Kerber and probably Kuznetsova), which is why she needs to take advantage of this. Rodina is the ideal opponent in the first round and I'm sure Watson will, with aggressive return, have enough break point opportunities to win. Details

Even though the first head-to-head finished at only 162 points, I have reason to believe this one will go over even 170 points. The most important reason is Palmeiras' poor defense. It has been doing horrible lately, which resulted in Flamengo scoring 89, Paulistano 92, Sorocabana 102 points in their h2h games. They made some improvement against Pinheiros but lacked aggressiveness against France. They are standing too far from opponents' back court and allow them too much in the pain. Palemiras' defense has less personal faults than any other team in the league and that won't do against Bauru. The away team are in high spirits, they will want to get back to NBB in the best manner after winning in the American League. That competition was exactly where they displayed the offensive power the last few weeks. 110 points against Sorocabana, 89 against Minas (one of the best defenses in the league) and 87 against Uberlandia. I think the stats are quite revealing. Doelado and the others at Bauru are in great shape and will know how to take advantage of Palmerias' passive defense. Palmeiras know that defense is not what can see them win, which is why they will embrace the faster pace. Details

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Jelena got lucky in the second round. Davis was a favorable draw, she has been doing badly lately and did the same against Jankovic. She won the first set and then won only three points in the opening five games of the second set. Jelena played a match she would like to forget soon as well, playing particularly badly after the second serve. That is why I'm going with the handicap at Keys today. She has great first serve, won 70% of first serve points, but she did great in the second serve as well. That kick serve she used will be a mighty weapon against Jankovic and I don't believe Keys will lose any service games here. Also, her game in the rallies is much better than Jankovic's. The Serbian has been out of shape for a while now, she has not solution for Keys powerful shots, especially in these kind of conditions where the ball bounces higher, giving Keys more than enough time to prepare a good shot. Details

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Although she surprised by beating Goerges in the first round, I still don't trust Watson, as theirs was a poor match with both players making too many mistakes. The Brit lacked confidence once again, losing five games in a row after taking a 5-3 lead in the second set. Her game stagnated in that period and the numerous mistakes made by Goerges were the only think keeping her in the match. Giorgi plays better tennis. She did lose twice to Carla Suarez Navarro, but the Brit and Navarro should not be put in the same sentence even. Giorgi struggles against Navarro because of her style, as Carla has a quality top spin shot which prevents Giorgi from going forward and looking for a winner. This is why Camila had to take more chances and look for winners from the base line, which will not be the case against Watson. In this match-up Giorgi has the consistence for longer rallies and can get through even in the forehand. She is also more confident on her first serve, and plays with more confidence overall. Details

Rybarikova retired from her match with Garcia last week, but not because of any great problem. She felt bad, lost the first set and decided that it's better to recover completely before Indian Wells than risk aggravating anything. She played well before retiring, and while her first serves failed her, she managed to outplay Garcia in the rallies. She couldn't hit any first serves in the end and lost the set. I expect her to have a great upper hand in the rallies against Vecino too. The Spaniard might be more consistent but Rybarikova has everything else. For comparison's sake, Vecino is 3-8 on hardcourt main draw matches in the last 2 years, recording those three wins against bad players. She is too insecure when serving, and Rbarikova is much better than Hlavackova and Duque Marino. Besides, she has better shots and I'm sure she'll win easily. The handicap at Rybarikova is set to only 3.5 games and I think that bet has great value. Details

The margin was set to 154 points in the first match, and was missed by two points. I expect a convincing under now. There are plenty of reasons. The most important one is definitely an element of surprise. The Breakers surprised the Tapians with their game in the first match, and Jackson's explosiveness was used, and he scored 22 points. That won't happen this time ebcause the Taipans will be ready, and we can expect this match to be slower. Besides, coach Fearne was mad at his players after the match for rushing things in certain moments. They shot for 26 three-pointers, and that's what he pointed out. He wants clear shots, even if it means waiting for the shot clock violation alarm. On the other hand, the Breakers got their first win and they're aware of its importance. If they celebrate at home, they're one step away from the title. They used the advantage in the paint, where they scored over 20 points, and they'll definitely push the ball towards Ibewke who can use his speed and get lay-up or extort a fault. While the guests depend on Wilbekin too much, the Breakers can't impose their fast rhythm without Webster and Jackson. Both coaches are aware of the stakes in this match, and will go for a slower game without too many risks, so an under is a real possibility. Details

Yesterday Zvonareva played 10 games in the first set against the unconvincing Riska and I don't see a reason why she wouldn't repeat the same thing against Mladenovic. Both have the quality first serve and neither offered too much on it in the first round. I'm convinced it will be an uncertain opening with not a lot of opportunities on the return, and that the set will be decided in the finish. Zvonareva didn't impress us with movement so we wouldn't trust her too much in this match, but she's the mild favorite. Kiki knows how to play against Zvonareva and surely won't force hits at the beginning and make too many errors. All in all, I expect a careful start from both of them and thus I don't believe any of them will make an early break and thus put this pick in danger. Details

Since the margin for total games went from 20 to 21, I've decided to go with the first set over. Even though Riske didn't play since Australia, I'm sure we'll see a close first set. Both players are good servers and the opponent should not be given a lot of opportunities after it. Besides, they play a similar game-style. Zvonareva prefers forehand rallies, just like Riske, and neither makes too many mistakes on backhand either. It is very clear that second service points will decide this match. Zvonareva is a bit better this season but Riska is the kind of opponent she will struggle with and I expect the first set to be decided late and a tie break wouldn't surprise me either. To sum up, I expect an atypical WTA match in which the players will get their chances only on second service return, which suggests a match with very little breaks. You can find better odds (Marathon) but with lower margins. Details

Even though the bookmakers as expected put Tapians in the role of favorite, I think the odds should not have been over 1.25, which affects handicap too. It is a playoff game and odds are always tricky to set in such situations but I simply don't see how the Wildcats could stand up to the home team. Coach Fearne was very clear - they don't have much to do against this opponent away so they rely on home games. The fan support makes up for their inexperience home and that's what matters in these kind of games. Visitors, on the other hand, lost Redhage a few days before the playoff start and don't have a player who step in for him properly. Hire is still not capable of doing more than 17-18 minutes, and Wagstadff, Redhage's other substitute, useless on the offensive end. Ross is also injured, which means this is not what the Wildcats had hoped for at this point in the season. They will rely on Knight in defense more than offense, but Burston is not bad and won't allow Knight dominance. They can basically count only on Daniels in defense but he's recording horrible numbers against the Taipans. The home team are much better at the moment, with many more options in offense. Gliddon is expected to play better, Wilbekin is traditionally good, and Weigh and Loughton know how to use each opportunity they get. I don't think the Wildcats will be able to fill the hole that is Redhage's absence and I'm sure they'll lose by a double-digit point difference. Details

Even though it may seem crazy to bet on Mirjana after her three-sets match yesterday, while Garcia won convincingly, but I'm sure Lucic is closer to winning than the odds suggest. The most important reason for it is first serve. Garcia had only just above 50% of first serve points while Mirjana had 73%. That means she will get more fast and easy points. We need to consider which opponents they met so far. Mirjana played a hard-hitter and more rallies were finished in mistakes. Garcia, on the other hand, managed to force Bethanie behind the baseline but that probably won't be the case today since Mirjana attacks faster and has stronger shots than Bethanie. I think the upper hand Lucic has in first serve will alone be enough to make this a close match. I opted for the counter-handicap instead of her win only because of her lack of consistency lately. Garcia got lucky with the draw to record convincingly wins despite not playing very well, but that won't happen against the Croat. Details