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Rybarikova was impressive against Bogdan, but that match is just an extra argument in favor of this pick. Even in a match against a fatigued opponent Rybarikova did not work much in rallies. Bogdan made errors even with easiest shots and did not properly test Rybarikova. Sharapova also scored a decisive victory, but with minor ups and downs once again. She mostly focused on strong flat shots in the first set as she did not do much with slices. In the second set she managed to incorporate those in her game as well, and displayed good tennis overall, if we leave out the blackout in the second set when she lost two serves in a row. I'm sure those black spots will be less frequent as the tournament draws on. She is confident while serving, especially on her first serve, and has great results against static players, which Rybarikova certainly is. Sharapova will have lots of chances on returns, and it's common knowledge Rybarikova does not do well under pressure. This is why her points on the second set will likely be few and far between, making things even easier for the Russian. Overall, I don't see how she can win more than five games in this match, as she does not move enough to force the Russian to make errors, while also lacking particularly strong and good shots to get through her defense. Details

Mariana does not stand a chance in this match. She recorded three losses in the last 3 weeks, all three to players with powerful forehand. The first one was Haddad Maia, then Zacaris and finally Bodgan, who outplayed her in rallies. Sharapova didn't open this tournament in the best way but she adjusted to conditions and the surface and better performance is expected. Things seemed much better in the second set against Rogers and I expect her to show how good she is today. She should sail through this tournament and I don't see any reason for her to hold back today. She will have a break chance in each game while winning her games easily. Duque-Marino won't be able to handle Sharapova's shots and I'm sure she can't get more than 4 games today. Details

I had to make a choice between the counterhandicap at Hradecka and the games over, but handicap is simply set too low. Hradeca can stand up to Errani in these conditions, especially given Errani's first service struggles. The Italian will be under pressure in her service games but, on the other hand, she will have the upper hand in rallies. Hradecka lacks consistency and it's only a matter of time before she snaps and starts pushing too much. That happened mid-second set in her match with Karatantcheva. She did 2/3 of it and then almost ruined everything by playing recklessly. Over is therefore the best choice here. I expect a close first set that could easily be decided in 12th or 13th game and I wouldn't be surprised if Hradecka wins i. Errani is more consistency and I don't think he can lose in straight sets. Since I expect 3 sets, 21 games seems like a good option that can happen even in straight sets. Details

As bad as Mattek-Sands is, Zacarias is still worse. It's a player who records wins at minor ITF tournaments, while always falling short at the major ones. That is why she was never in the Top 300. Bethani is a different story. If she would to focus on minor tournaments, she would have been back into Top 120 in no-time. That is, however, not what she's interested in and she mostly goes for the WTA level. She did horribly against Belu but the Romanian is much better than Zacaris, who will have to save break points in each service game. Bethani would beat her convincingly even if doing as badly as in the Begu match. She is better, with more powerful shots and net game. Marcela has none of those things. Top 250 is the best she can do. Details

Although Melbourne beat the Kings in an away match yesterday, I still don't see them as the favorites. There are a lot of reasons for that. First one is the fact that neither of the teams have a good bench. The Kings' bench achieved 19 points in that match (Brandt 16 points) while Melbourne's reserves added 26. Too much of that depends on the starting five on both sides, and the Kings showed they can stand up to that. Besides, Worthington and Walker have health problems and are not at 100%, and the schedule of matches in less than 48 hours won't make the job easier. I think that the first match was decided with an unsportly move by the Kings' captain Garlepp over Kickert two minutes before the end. At the time Melbourne had +4 and the Kings didn't manage to take the lead until the end. Additionally, I don't think the Kings will again allow 12 three-pointers to Melbourne, but will have a better defense. Although he didn't fail in recent matches, Dunquier played only nine minutes against Melbourne, while the rest belonged to Brandt. As weird as it may sound (he's an average player), he could be the key player who will bring the Kings energy in the final. They have significant advantage in the rebound which they have to use, and a counter-handicap from 7.5 points, and that seems like a bet I can't miss. Details

The story of Mona Bathel is well known. She has extremely powerful shots, forehand especially, an on a good can beat just about anyone. But good days are scare for lately and she has to rely on momentum and form more. The form is not good at the moment. She had no response for Zahlavova's 'diversity' and then disappointed with her performance against Hantuchova. Hantuchova won Pattaya only a day earlier and clearly wasn't at her best physically, Barthel didn't use it and made too many mistakes, handing the win to Hantuchova on a silver platter. Kozlova, on the other hand, did great last week. Wins over Konjuh, Vesnina, and Watson were not expected but she played well and won deservedly. Good service, good-quality shots and consistent game are the reasons why I think she will have the upper hand here. Just like Barther, she will be good in her service games but I believe that her consistency will make the difference in rallies. The conditions in Qatar suit her more than Bathel and this is at least a 50-50 match, which gives the odds that are offed value. Details

I really don't see a way for Carla to continue her streak. She won two difficult victories as an underdog here in Dubai. Giorgi was once again too nervous and made mistakes at key moments, while Kvitova played the worst match in a year. Petra moved poorly, was underwhelming on her second serve and made too many mistakes too. Despite playing a disastrous match, she almost beat Carla, which is my guideline in this match. In the first round match Muguruza cried over her poor performance in the first set against Gajdosova, but she's been a different player since that. She is confident on her serve, sends strong shots to right places and looks impressive on the net as well. She is filled with confidence and the conditions obviously suit her. Right now Muguruza seems much more confident to me than Carla, who clearly stagnated in the second set against Kvitova. I'm under the impression that Garbine plays better under these conditions than Suarez Navarro, more consistently, and will use her many strengths in this match. The handicap seems like a very good bet since Carla will not get as many gift mistakes against Muguruza as she got against Kvitova. Details

I don't see a reason not to go with the same bet I went with last week in Antwerp. Pliskova managed to save a few break-points back then and the first set was decided in tie-break. I expect a similar thing to happen today. The surface in Dubai in even faster than the one in Atwerp and both players serve great. Safarova won staggering 84% of her first service points against Venus, while Pliskova had 71% with 13 aces. Safaraova displayed great serving against Venus. Venus struggled to hit her serves back well and Karlina probably won't be able to do that any better. Since the total games margin is too high, I think the best option here is the first set over. Fatigue at Pliskova is the main reason for it. She seems really convincing in spite of that but second serves problems emerge with both players. There's a chance that the second part of the match offers a lot more break chances which makes the 9.5 games over in the first set the logical and the best paid option. Also, it can be successful even in case of a late break. Details

Just passing the qualifiers in Dubai is a spectacular result for Arina Rodionova. She managed to pass them without winning a single match. First the injured Smitkova managed to get a set and match her in the few initial games of the third, but then realized there's no sense in aggravating her injury, so she forfeited. In the second round, her sister, who's also a better player, forfeited. Garcia showed good games in Fed Cup, and she's feeling very confident. She had enough time to get ready and adjust to Dubai, so I'm convinced she's better than Rodionova in every segment. She'll win convincingly without a doubt, and considering that she had only a few games on on the ITF level at the beginning of the season, under 17 seems like an option worth of medium to high stake. Details

I really don't like to go with handicaps in this league but I cannot miss out on this bet. Knight is back at Wildcats and they're a different team now. He is the coordinator of defense and now that Hire is back too, the Wildcats are expected to dominate in rebounding from now on. The Breakers, on the other hand, struggle with Pledger's injury and that will be a great problem since it will give the Wildcats rebounding. Also, there's Abercombie who is still injured and hasn't been able to play his top level game still. The win over the Taipans restored confidence at the Wildcats and they won't allow the rivals to beat them for the third time this season. Especially since this is no ordinary game. The Wildcats have a lot of ways of stopping the Brakers and I think the handicap should be set at at least 7.5 here. Details

Hats off to Carla for the semifinals but her adventure is to end here. She should have been knocked out in the first round but Giorgi simply fell apart. She lost focus and made some very stupid mistakes to lose in the end. Carla had many ups and down in that match, especially when serving. The same happened against Niculescu. She opened the match 0-3, got back to 4-4 and lost the set in the end. Luckily for her, Niculescu had a neck injury and wanted to get it over with as soon as possible. Carla was a bit more convincing but there are some indisputable fact here. She is tired after the tough draw and converted only one our of her 11 break points. Pliskova didn't offer that many in two rounds combined. She is just much more stable and has the upper hand in her service games. I'm sure she will win convincingly because Carla proved she cannot stay at a high level throughout the match and Pliskova will take advantage of it. Details

Sorocabana might be bottom table but I think they are underrated in this game. Uberlandia are in crisis and one a 3-game losing run. The only justifiable defeat was the one to Flamengo since Macae and Paulistano aren't tough opponents. They are simply under pressure since management said playoffs are no.1 priority. Sorocabana surprised Franca and then put up a good fight against Minas. Granted, the defeat by 9 points doesn't seem like they have but after the bad start, Sorocabana were just as good as Minas. Gruber and Thiauginho were impressive, even though the latter is expected to have more assists. Visitors are getting better, they can stand up to Uberlandia even in a faster pace game and I wouldn't be surprised if they stun the opponents. Uberlandia covered this handicap once since December - against poor-performing Brasilia and that is just another reason for this bet. Details

Although it might seem odd to bet on games over in the first set in women's tennis, I'm convinced there's a lot of value here. The first option I considered was the overall over, but the 22 game margin halted me there. The reason is both were convincing in the second round, and are not prone to ups and downs, so a 76 63 outcome would bring me nothing. This bet has much more value for several reasons. The serve is the first of them. Safarova has a tricky left-handed serve which spins out of court and is really tough to return well. On the other hand, Pliskova is one of the best in the Tour in terms of serving. Though she had the worst serving day in a long time against Beck, she still won 61% of serve points. That match is also not very relevant, as Pliskova played just enough to win. She never produced he full potential during that match, saving her strength instead. I'm convinced we'll see a dramatic start of the match with both players easily winning their serve points. I expect a break later in the match, by which time this over should go through. Details

I have to say I'm pleasantly surprised with the odds at visitors' win. Cearense lost the only h2h this season home but the game was settled in the very finish when Sao Jose managed to stay calm. Torres was one of the key players back then, having finished with more than 20 points and he is questionable for this game. Even it he does play, it will clearly not be his top level, which is to give the visitors a great advantage. Cearense finally stared playing good offense. They are now building good attacks as a team which resulted in 19 assists against Mogi. For comparison's sake, Mogi are one level above San Jose and lost to Cearense regardless. Fischer, Andreazao, and others were just as good as Baxter, Drudi and Lawas. Cearense might stand up to San Jose even in the key. I think that this will be a close game that will be settled in the few final minutes. I simply have to go for the counter-handicap with medium stake. Details

The 4.5-game handicap at Mladenovic might seem a bit too much at first, but I'm convinced that the Spaniard is in for yet anther crushing defeat. I don't know what she has to hope for when Begu left her with 6 games. She has no confidence and no game. Her first serve is horrible and Mladenovic will have break points in virtually every game, just like she had against Errani. Soler Espinoza doesn't have consistency for rallies like Errani, she makes too many mistakes and often doesn't know what the right time for attacking is. Her national team lost last weekend, while Mladenovic couldn't be happier after proving coach Mauresmo that she was the right choice (beat Errani) and following the doubles win over the top doubles players. When confident, Mladenovic is playing great tennis. She has good first serve, she has the momentum, and is overall better indoors. You can now see why this bet is worth medium to high stake. Details

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Even though the margin set at 175 points might seem to high for regulation time, when it comes to 36ers and Crocs, nothing is too high. They would always finish the games at more than 170 points and I don't see any reason for it not to happen today. On the contrary - Adelaide need a win to for spot 4 and to maybe even get ahead of the Wildcats. Their paint will be the key segment in that attempt since it averages 42.8 points. Motum is is excellent shape, Wilson uses his dribbling skills brilliantly, while Creek averages 16 points with shot efficiency of 56%. Fast transition is their strongsuit, while Crocs' paint remains their weakest link. Gladness can't guard everyone single-handedly, he had 10 rebounds per game but I think Wilson and Conklin could force him into personal faults. two top players at the Crocs Blanchfield and Conklin are capable of scoring 60 points combined and keep the Crocs in the game till the very end. They have one of the best back courts in the league and impressive three-point shooting. Blanchfield is averaging 20.7 points in the last three games while Conlik does even better. I think this will be a faster-pace game in which 36ers will get a lot of transition points and Crocs a lot of points from a distance. Details

I believe this margin to be the product of the last few games by Minas, in which they played uncharacteristic basketball. They scored 100 against Cearense in their last game, but the match was over after the first 10 minutes and the bench had a field day shooting it out later. There was no need for a quality defense, the entire team rotated out and got a chance. I'm more inclined to expect a game such as the one recently played between Minas and Mogi, that ended at 142. Brasilia went over at this margin four times in the last five games, but the reason for that were the opposing teams. Paulistano scored 94 on them, Mogu 88, Bauru had 85. Uberlandia remained at 91 in the last round. Those were all teams with much better offenses than defenses. They have no more room for error, and have shown they cannot parry faster teams on offense, leaving them a lower scoring game as the only way to win. The reason is obvious: they depend too much on Lamonte, Giovannoni and Cipollini on offense, and the three of them cannot score over 45 points combined. As Minas are a team with the best defense in the league, I'm sure they'll gladly accept a slower pace. Their first match ended at 152, and the stakes are much higher now, as Minas need a win to stay in contention for fourth position, while Brasilia need it to get back in the zone that allows playoff. Although there is still a lot to be played till the end of the season, this game is important for both teams, and I'm sure both will play slower and we won't see more than 150 points scored in total. Details

Breakers covered the offered handicap in both head-to-head matches against the Wildcats. In the first one Wildcats were missing Knight, while in the other one they had all of their players available. At that time the Breakers had problems with Abercrombie's injury, but they still won with 11 points of difference. What changed since then? The Breakers are still a complete team and only Pledger is questionable. Tapes show that it was a sprain, so he should perform against the Wildcats. Even if he doesn't, the Breakers have a huge advantage under the hoop in the forms of Vukona and Ibekwe. On the other hand, the Wildcats are facing an obvious crisis. They lost two key members of the starting five and they can't make up for them. The newly-arrived Martin is a player who serves as an ability for Damian Martin to rest while Hire is far away, but far from the true shape. Hire didn't even play against Taipans. How bad they are in the defense of the paint is testified by the fact that they conceded 42 points from the pain against the Taipans, who are usually a shooter team. Breakers know how to play against the Wildcats: they put up a fast-paced game with a lot of errors. Jackson and Webster use that better than Martin who prefers a slower pace. The Wildcats don't have enough good players to follow such a fast pace for the entire 40 minutes. That's how the Taipans broke them, but I'm convinced the Breakers will do the same. They're completely ready, they have a longer line-up, rebound advantage and support of the fans. The handicap border has been set too low. Details