betprepare.com

Botev are in a difficult situation. Their team is falling apart and the question is what squad they will use. They have lost their entire attacking line from last year and their main forward is 34-year-old-Tsetkov, whose career is drawing to a close and who didn't play at all last year. Even when they had players like Hamza, Anicet, Dore and Vander, their games were rarely goal-fests. In addition, this game is not played at their home stadium but in a far-off Burgas, so we shouldn't expect too big fan support. The Bulgarians are at the start of their preparations, they will try to win this without embarrassing themselves but I doubt they can win this by a convincing margin. Libertas played against Sarajevo last year (1-2, 0-1) and they showed they can do alright if their opponents are not at 100%. I think they won't risk too much but will park the bus in order to get a good result. They would gladly accept this a 1-0,2-0 or even 3-0 defeat, and I don't think the Bulgarians would mind that either. Libertas's games in San Marino are low-scoring affairs and they will have a hard time scoring here as well. Botev don't seem like a team that can score 4-5 goals against a motivated opponent. Details

Bosnia are the favorites today but not so much that that they will dominated the possession so much . If they score the first goal, I'm pretty sure they will allow Nigeria to dominate and they play slow game. The pattern for this game will be the game between Nigeria and Iran where Nigeria had 72% possession. It was no accident as they had 60% against USA, 51 against Greece, 64 against Scotland. These were their last 4 games. Bosnia? 45% against Argentina, 38 against Mexico in the last friendly they won. In my opinion, this bet has a value in every scenario except in case of an early goal for Nigeria which would lead them to defend for a long time. As long as the score is tied, I think it's at least a 50-50 chance that Bosnia will not play high pressure with Pjanić, Misimović, Džeko and possibly Ibišević. If Bosnia take an early lead, Nigeria will almost certainly dominate the possession. For 3.00 odds, it's really worth the risk. A widely available bet is Nigeria over 48.5%. Details

In the first round, England didn't have luck with the ball possession. Italy had 60% of the ball possession, but then they scored and let the English to take the ball. It ended with 52% for the Italians. This England play vertical, fast. That's how they scored their only goal against the Italians, and I believe they'll try to play the same way today. Even more so because the Uruguayans are the ones who need to win no matter what, and will try to dominate. I think the English can "win" in the ball possession only if Uruguay lead early on, and they struggle in breaking their defense. For the offered stake, I'm willing to risk that kind of outcome. I have a feeling that the odds offered for the possession are based on the likelihood of the win, which isn't necessarily true. If the English lead first, I can see them setting on their half and allowing the Uruguayans to knit the net as much as they want to, and then trying to score from the counter attacks with Sterling, Rooney and Sturridge. There are lots of bets available that offer Uruguay's possession at 49 and 50%, but for that kind of a difference in the odds, I'm willing to risk that minute or two of possession going to Tabarez's team's side. Details

The stakes are high today. I don't expect free-flowing football but a real battle. In this case, putting the margin of fouls for either team at 12.5 is a mistake. First of all, Uruguay play a very aggressive game ( a total of 21 out of 38 fouls against Costa Rica), and you can't counter that with a soft approach. In addition, Uruguay have individuals that can create extra space 1-on-1 and the tall players that will be hard to defend against in the aerial battle. I expect at least 4-5 such fouls that will pump up these stats I personally think that Uruguay will try with Suarez and that's an additional bonus for this bet. If nothing else, he will provoke 2-3 fouls. If this bet were more accessible, the stake would be higher. An alternative is total over for fouls 28.5 Details

This margin is completely wrong, and I don't know what they based it on. Let's count some of the last Colombia's matches I found data and the number of fouls for: Greece (20), Chile (25), Jordan (14), Tunis (17), Netherlands (21), Belgium (16), Paraguay (8), Uruguay (18), Ecuador (21), Serbia (21), Peru (18), Argentina (20). So, the last 12 matches I found, they went over the margin 11 times. Half of those teams were weaker than Ivory Coast, and half were friendly matches. I repeat, they had 20 fouls against Greece. I had the same bet on Ivory Coast in the first round, and they had 13 fouls against Japan. The Japanese are much humbler, and even then, it could have been 20 fouls if the referee didn't let advantage about ten times (rightfully so, but it's silly to expect that again). Even though the media didn't announce him from the start, I think Drogba could be in the team today. He brought life against Japan, and participated in the turnover a lot, and today, his strength could be valued in gold. Referee Webb shouldn't be a big factor here. He could try to prevent the nervousness by calling preventative fouls. Perhaps he'll allow a game to be a big tougher, but he's too experienced to get himself into problems by allowing too much roughness. Details

The Chinese came to this with the following results in the previous tournament: 4-14 (USA), and 8-11 (Brazil), then they played the quarterfinals against Canada 13-13, and passed through thanks to the five-meter shots. In the semifinals, they were defeated 13-6 against USA, and 16-8 in the match for the third place against Australia. In the competition of 7 teams, they ended up third with four defeats and one tie. It so happened that Hungary played against most of those opponent here. But, while the Chinese lose to USA with 10 and 7 difference, the Hungarians defeated them with 7 points difference. The Chinese lost to Australia with 8, the Hungarians defeated the Australians by 6. The Chinese played a tie against Canada, the Hungarians defeated them by 7. Add to that the Hungarian coach statements that they're playing better with each game, and that the Chinese have a young and inexperienced team that could feel tired after playing four matches in four days, anything but Hungary's convincing win would be a big surprise. It's true that they don't need a convincing win, but they didn't need it in the group against much stronger teams, and they defeated them by 6, 7 and 7 points difference. The Chinese lost to Serbia by 12, to Brazil by 3 (8-0 at the halftime, than won the last quarter 5-1), and yesterday to Montenegro. But, the last one's mostly embarrassing for the Montenegrins. Details

Montenegro spent all the credit here, and the time has come for them to get serious. They played well against Brazil, and then had a "blackout" against Serbia. They defeated the Chinese yesterday, but there was no aggressiveness nor desire, the coach Perovic publicly shamed the players and told them they were embarrassing yesterday. He wants them to be fully mobile and change the approach. I'm sure that will be enough for them to win today. The Montenegrins are not complete here, but neither are the Americans. They're basically playing with the junior team who can hardly match the best. The Hungarians defeated them by 7, the weakened Australians by 4, and they were even losing 7-2 against Canada, but turned it to their favor in the last eight minutes. I think that Montenegro's win is a sure bet, but the public rebuke by Perovic guarantees they'll go full force today. And, in that situation, they 3 goals stronger than the USA. Even more. Details

The Americans got 1-1 in their first period yesterday and then went over the 17.5 margin. They're young and they play a pretty fast game as their defense and keeper (born in '95) cannot win games for them. I wrote about their tendencies for overs yesterday and I just got a confirmation of that here. Australia are weakened here, they scored only 1 goal in the first half here. And that was in a game that the Hungarians said was too slow and had to go faster. By this logic, if we make their yesterday's game 'faster' (the game ended at 16 goals), and they score a goal or two more, the 17.5 goal margin seems too low. At their last competition played some 15 days ago, they had games with 21, 18, 25, 15 and 24 goals. The only team that kept them under was Brazil who had a tight approach in every game they had. They have no imperatives in terms of results and I expect a more casual approach and a game with over 17.5 goals. Details

The Hungarians scored 11 goals against Australia and their coach Benedek was not completely happy with their efficiency and speed of their play. I expect them to pick up the tempo, which should lead to a few more goals. If the Americans were able to score 10 goals against Canada in 12 minutes, I think Hungary can score 13-14 goals in 32 minutes. And if that's the case, I think this 18.5 margin is definitely low enough. The Canadians know how to score, they have a solid offense but their defense is a disaster. In last 20 days, they have conceded 12 against USA, 8 against Kazakhstan, 8 and 10 against Japan, 13 against China, 11 against Australia, and Hungary are a much better team than all of them. Details

I can't shake the feeling that the odds on Germany dominating possession are overrated. If we have 60 minutes of pure game, 57% possession would mean 34 minutes in their possession, i.e. 8 minutes more than the Portuguese. Midfield with Veloso, Moutinho, Meireles can hold the bold a lot and I doubt they will allow themselves to be dominated. On the other hand, Germany don't seem too superior. Only a few have gone over this margin and I think the only way for this to happen is if the Portuguese score an early goal as they would focus only on defense, provided they manage to keep their lead for a long time. The Germans have not gone over this margin in too many games against strong opponents (Chile 48%, England 51%, Italy 55%). They had 55% against Portugal at the last Euro but I think that Germany was stronger than this one today. Details

USA and Canda have reached this tournament through the Intercontinental tournament in may. According to the information available, the teams for today will be more or less the same. USA went over the 17.5 goal margin in 5 out of 5 games. They scored an average of 12 goals per game and their opponents were pretty much on Canada's level. They played 6 games and went over 17.5 goals on 4 occasions. The only 2 times they stayed under was against Kazakhstan who stayed under in 4 out of 5 games. Canada played a 21-goal match against Australia (11-10), 22 goals against Japan (12-10), 26 against China (13-13) and 19 against Japan once more (11-8). USA played a game against Serbia as a preparation for this tournament. They did alright in offense but they didn't do anything in defense. Considering this game is not too important for both teams, I believe we will see over 17.5 goals here. Their competitive games can be a bit rougher, but this will not be the case today. Details

I see the Ivorians as the favorites to top this group. They have a very good and experienced team and the draw has put them in a group with no clear favorites. Colombia are no the favorites in my opinion, especially after they lost Falcao. It will probably turn out that 4-5 points will be enough to go through and I'm pretty sure they can collect that amount in this group. They have the biggest attacking potential in this group and I think they will be able to capitalize on it. Details

Japan are physically quite weaker than the African team. First and foremost, there's Drogba, who will give Japan a lot of trouble, and who likes contact. I expect a high-pace game with a lot of individual attempts that will mostly end as fouls. Referee Usses awards many fouls and yellow cards, and I expect that the Japanese will commit more than 12,5 fouls, which is the margin. Friendly matches aside, they are almost always over that margin. When it comes to their matches against African teams - they've committed 15 fouls against Zambia in a friendly match, in the last WC against Cameroon 20. Against the better opponents lately - Belgium 16, the Netherlands 12, Serbia 14 - those were all friendly matches. That Drogba and others are quite the trouble gets obvious is we take a look at their opponents'stats in the last games - Belgium 21, Senegal 16 and 15, Mexico 13. I'm not taking into consideration the preparation match against El Salvador, which was hardly competitive. Only a few fouls were committed then,since everyone was just trying not to get injured. Also, all of their opponents in the last WC went over this margin. Details

The situation is pretty clear here. England will play with 2 classic midfielders and four offensive players (forwards) whose primary task certainly won't be to safeguard the ball and pass it around. They have a Liverpool duo in midfield - Henderson who will focus on guarding Pirlo, and Gerard who will look for a long ball up front to their fast wingers. Sterling and Sturridge generally play a vertical game and don't bother too much with the horizontal passes. Their keeper Hart did say they will try to keep the ball in their possession but so will Italy. They have 5 classic midfielders, which includes De Rossi, Veratti and Pirlo. These guys don't go for the vertical ball after their first pass and will do more wider passes. A poor pitch might slow them down even more and I see them as having more possession. That doesn't necessarily imply a better team or a team closer to a win, quite the contrary. Details

Mexico play in a 5-3-2 system and have huge problems with scoring. Their minimal defeats against Bosnia and Portugal without scoring a goal are more relevant than their 3 goals against Israel and Ecuador as the Israeli keeper helped them in the first and in the second they scored goals from 25-30 meters out, which is not something to expect on a regular basis. In addition, Mexico have a very tough group. First up, we have Cameroon against whom we can expect a real battle today (an under 2.5 goals is at about 1.5-1,6), the the game against Brazil in which they don't have much of a chance, and another hard fight against Croatia Even if they go through, they will probably face Spain against whom they don't have much to hope for. On the other hand, we have a completely new England with lots of attacking potency from Liverpool's players. Sterling, Sturridge and Rooney will be a dangerous trio for any team to face. True, the English are facing tough games against Italy and Uruguay but they also have Costa Rica against whom they can score 3-4 goals (the last game in the group in which they will need a win and Costa Rica will be thinking about their flight back home). I expect England to go through and face Colombia/Ivory Coast/Japan/Greece, where they will be the favorites. So, I wouldn't be surprised if they play a game or two more then Mexico and even if they don't pass their group, it seems the English can score more against Costa Rica than Mexico can in all three games. Details

Whoever loses this game will definitely lose any chance of getting through. Because of this, I expect a very tough game with lots of tensions if things don't go the right way for one team. Anyway, I don't think we will see any free-flowing football but a real battle. After all, that's what the selection of players shows: Marquez (27 games/8 yellow cards this season), Aguilar (21/6), Rodriguez (17/4), Moreno (37/8), Guardado (29/7); while cards are nothing strange to their midfielder Herrera (39/10) and forward Peralta (27/7). Cameroon have their own say in this, most notably in midfield with Enoh, Song and Mbia as the main midfield destroyers. As the icing on the cake, we have referee Wilmar Roldan. As was said in the preview, he has given 34 yellow and 7 red cards in last 8 games. On the international level, he has a very colorful stat: 8, 6, 6 ,4 and 1 red, 5 and 1 red, 6, 5, 6, 6 and a red. We have good odds here for the option in which the bet is void in case of 4 yellow cards. Details

After Pro Recco's defeat, Primorje are the prime candidates to take the title in my opinion. They showed the difference in quality less than a month ago when they beat the Spaniards by 3 goal in the CL group stage. The odds on Primorje's win were 1.15. True, the game didn't mean anything to the Spaniards but it didn't to Primorje as well. They learned their lesson in the first game of the season when they lost in Barcelona by 8-7, which their only defeat this season. They've won everything that could have been won and I doubt they'll get stuck in the semifinals tonight. Individually speaking, they are stronger in every position and that has to become apparent. I repeat, we had 1.20 and 1.15 odds on Primorje's win this season. In the first game, the odds were unjustified due to Primorje's lackadaisical approach but the odds from a month ago were right one the money. The odds today are 1.8 because Barceloneta are the hosts? They were saved by an excellent day from their keeper Pinedo and Brescia's poor performance yesterday. Primorje are one level above the Italians, and that's putting it mildly. Details

I don't understand why Barceloneta are regarded as such strong favorites. They have no real competitions in Spain, and they wouldn't even reach the Final Six if not for their privileged status in the first place. Regardless of the fact they finished as the third-placed team, the question is whether Jug would have reached that spot if they knew they would go into the Final Six if the take that spot. Realistically speaking, they had a good start of the season until other teams got into the form and they got a few surprises at home (wins against Jug and Primorje, and a point against Pro Recco). As the season wore on, their performances waned. Olympiacos beat them twice, Recco and Primorje crushed them. Brescia have been doing well throughout the entire season. They have lost only 5 serious games - 3 against Recco, and 2 against Radnički, but they also managed to beat that Recco on two occasions. This is a much closer game than the odds suggest as Brescia have only lost 3 games by more than 1 goal (Recco tice and Radnički away), while the only team that Barceloneta have managed to beat by more than 1 goal in 10 games of CL was Eger from Hungary. In addition, Barceloneta are no playing at home, which makes their home pool advantage even smaller. I think going for Brescia over 7.5 goals for this stake is also a good idea. Details

Levski didn't have a great season but tonight they will forget about it all. They are celebrating their 100th anniversary and they invited Lazio who will use a mixed squad. It's the end of the season and neither team will go for 0-0 so I don't see how this could be a low-scoring affair. Since the odds on over have gone down, I will go for the Bulgarian's higher motivation. I don't think the mixed Lazio squad will be such favorites in Sofia. In addition, Reja said they will go to take part in the celebration and not to ruin it. The Bulgarians will remember this game for a long time, while the Italians will not bother too much with it. Details

I know that you can't have more than 11 players on the pitch but the fact is that coach Ćurčić had only 10 players and 2 keepers at his disposal up until a few days ago. Two more players have joined his team, while one player got injured and is doubtful for this game. All of this is hard to ignore. This team doesn't have too many parallels with the one that crushed Belgium in the qualifiers recently. Their forward Đurđević (Vittese) and Djuričić (Benfica) are from Obrenovac, the city destroyed by the massive floods in the Balkans, and Ćurčić though the best thing to do is to spare them for now. Jojić, Mitrović, Spajić, and Ćosić are also out. In any case, Ćurčić said they would play with one or two players from the game against Belgium and that the result is completely irrelevant. He wants to see how other players perform. One should not doubt their motivation, but I don't think the visitors will also be uninterested. These odds would make sense if Serbia had full squad, which is definitely not the case. Details