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After some not so good results lately, the US have to open this qualifying cycle well. The opponents couldn't have probably been easier, In face, it's impossible to find a tough opponent in the history of US football. What's important for the Americans here is a convincing win that will improve the atmosphere on the team. Klinsmann will insist on that following some unconvincing games. The visitors are not the kind of opponent that would see me doubt the US after the defeats to Mexico, Brazil and Costa Rica. It's a team that made it here after knocking out Guyana on away goals and Aruba after scoring in the last minutes of the game. Let me list some of their away results to show you what a difference there is between these two teams: Aruba - St. Vincent (2-1), Guyana (4-4), St. Lucia (1-2), Grenada (2-3), Barbados (2-2), Martinique (4-3), Guadeloupe (3-1). St. Lucia were the only opponents who didn't score two goals...
They are also weakened here. They have some half-amateurs here, who are their top players - two best of them are injured and won't play today. Midfielder George, who is allegedly their key player won't be their tuiehr. They scored 32 goals combined so far (the three of them), while everyone else on the list scored 21. Such an inexperienced team has never played an opponent like the States. I believe the US can score at least 5 goals if the aforementioned opponents scored 3-4 each. Details

The circumstances surrounding this game call for this tip. The results from the first two rounds suggest there should be no holding back on either team. The Turks are a traditionally aggressive team that has a 9/1/3 record at 4 yellow cards margin. They are 4/2 in European games (4 overs). They played 9 European games home this season and have a 6/2/1 record. It's therefore clear that the situation is not 50-50 on their end as it seems. Things are a bit complicated at Ajax since they have a 6/1/9 record this season but some of those need extra clarification. They are 3/3 in Europe but I want to talk about their away games. Ajax are 4/1/3 away, but they won 3 out of four games in which the bets weren't successful in the domestic championship. They are 7/1/5 in European away games since 2003. The six game in which there were no cards were two against Barcelona and one again PSG. When i take everything into consideration it can be concluded that if Ajax don't contribute to this bet much it means they are also not hurting it. Last but not least, the Spanish ref Borbalan is to officiate this game. It is known that the Spanish refs might have the shortest fuse when it comes to giving cards and Borbalan is no exception. His record is 39/7/13 in the last 49 games. Some of the 13 are friendly matches or the Spanish league matches where for example, Barcelona beat someone by 5-6 goals. He has 10 overs in 12 European games since 2013. The only two unders were in games with 5-1 and 0-5 final scores. Details

I don't want to get caught in the trap with the yellow cards here because the margins are set extremely high. I'll rather go with the option that includes red cards as well (10 points yellow card, 25 points red card). Simply, we need 6 yellow cards, 4 yellow cards and 1 red card, 2 yellow and two red cards...
Albania are racing to secure a spot in the Euro and Serbia have only one mission – to prevent them from reaching that goal. It is very clear that this will not be your regular game. Both teams have gone over this margin in previous qualifiers even though this is more a situation than a statistical bet.
The Italian referee Rizzoli makes the situation even better as he has a short fuse when it comes to giving out cards. He has officiated 1 games this season and went into over in 4. He's not the one to talk and give much explanations to players, he simply punishes them with cards. He is too well-experienced to stand by and want a rough and dirty game that can escalate into an incident in the stands. Alongside the usual bookings that are the result of fouls, I also expect 2-3 rows on the pitch that will result in at least 2-3 yellow cards and possibly a few red cards (especially near the end of the game when one side will be extremely nervous). I think this is the safest version of this bet. You can also go with the red card and over 65 points for lower stake as well.
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It's hard to go against the statistics, and this is what it says: Referee Velasco Carballo likes to give bookings. In 2015 he officiated in 23 games, and in 21 of those he gave 4 or more bookings. But he is not on the margin often, at 15 games he showed 6 ore more yellow cards. Olympiakos played 8 games in Europe last year, at seven of them there were four or more yellow cards. At Bayern's European games we passed the 3,5 margin in nine out of ten cases. Domestic competitions spoil the average a bit, but we should take into account their domination over their competition. And Bayern still went over in three of four Bundesliga rounds. I found last year's statistics for Olympiakos' games against the best team (top 6 in the league table), and it says that the over 3.5 yellow cards was at 8 out of 10 games. Bayern shouldn't be as powerful as they used to be, the Greeks definitely see their chance in that and they will fight hard. All of this is in favor of the fact that we will see at least four yellow cards. Details

Spain played in Estonia only a few days ago. The odds at their win were 1.10 and I don't see any difference between that and this game. Croatia might not be as good as Spain but Estonia didn't put up as good a fight as the final result suggests. They are a bad team that spends most of the team defending and hoping not to concede. That is no surprise since their players are not starters even in the Estonian championship. They cannot stand up to Croatia today. They an count on luck only but not even that could probably save them. There is nothing working in their favor here. If Croatia score an early goal and force them to abandon the defense-oriented approach, Estonia could be in for a disaster. They lost this year to Denmark 8-0, Slovenia 7-1, Belarus 4-0, France 6-0 and narrowly to Kazakhstan, Moldova, Turkmenistan, Finland...There is no point in drawing comparisons to U19 teams from previous years since a lot changed but even if we did, things would not get better for Finland. They will not lose today if Croatia miss out on all the great attempts (I think the will have at least 10). If Croatia were the home team, the odds would be at 1,10-1,15 max, the handicap (-1,5) at 1,30-1,40. Since the home team won't have much of a support today the home court advantage is not that valuable. Details

Germany are dealing with certain problems and things don't seem as easy for them as when they won the World Cup. That doesn't mean they cannot beat anyone easily but, as a rule, the wins are not that easy. When the opponents sense that, they usually try harder than normally. Poland did just that id the first match and won. It was quite an aggressive game that finished with 5 yellow cards. Other than in the games against Gibraltar, the Germans have 3 overs and 1 under at the 3,5 yellow cards margin. Poland have 3 overs and two unders. I expect Germany to be offense-oriented today and Poland that will try and put an end to that through aggressive game. What is an average bet gets great when we know that the Italian referee Rizzoli is to officiate this game. He had more than 3.5 handed out in the last 10 official games. Since the start of 2014, he was officiating 47 games, 39 of which were in over. To sum up, this is an importnat game between two neighboring countries in which the home team will attack and the well-experienced visitors (average age of 26-27) will try and prevent them from that. They will try and get a point. Also, the referee went over this margin in 82% of his games over the past two years. That is more than enough for this bet. Other than with bwin, you can find the bet at this margin at bet365 at smaller odds. For those who don't have this offer or are ready to take more risk I recommend over 4 with bet364 or over 4,5 with marathon, or over 45 booking points' with WHill at odds over 2.60 for unit or two down. Any option with a lot of bookings looks good today. Details

I can't remember a time when the Croatian U-21 team looked this powerful. Most of them have been playing at the senior level for a long time and they have two or three good senior seasons behind them. They demonstrated a lot which is proven by their international transfers. Clubs like Chelsea, Barcelona and Napoli don't buy players just like that. The Georgians can only dream about that level. Their international players play in the German 3rd league or they play small roles in Ukraine, Cyprus and Belgium. Both teams are missing several important players, but I convinced that Croatia will handle that better. The fact that the Georgians were better in Dugopolje four years ago has absolutely nothing to do with today's game. I expect the Young Croats to win convincingly. There is no doubt about motivation, quality is on their side. That's enough for me. Details

Even though Newtown won the first game, I still stand by my assessment that Valletta is the better team. They had some injury-struggles in the first game and couldn't overcome those problems to lose in injury time. They need to win here and I'm pretty it won't be by a narrow 1-0 result. Newtown have poor defense that concedes over two goals on average in the domestic league. The visitors will definitely not play for a goalless draw because that will leave them with no chance. They will want to score again and I think the home team will use some open space. If they managed to score one goal away and have a few more good attempts despite not being complete, they can score at least two today. The weather won't do the visitors any favors since 30 or more degrees centigrade are expected today. Details

Aktobe are a much better team and their first-leg defeat was really the result of bad luck. They basically set a camp before Nomme's goal and I really don't see how another game with such poor efficiency can happen today. In fact, they scored 4 goals over the weekend in the championship game. The bookies know how good they are so the win goes at 1.5 max. There might not be a lot of value there but their advancement through has value. A win basically equals going through tot he next stage. The opposite can happen only if the game finished at 1-0 and foes into penalty shout out which they would have to lose. Extra time would only give them a bigger chance as they are the better prepared and better-quality team. I'm ready to take the risk for this difference in the odds. Details

I do not understand why the home team is being underrated like this today. More and more money is being invested in football in Malta and even though that's far from any respectable level, the Armenians are not even close to it. The Armenia champions beat San Marino'c champions narrowly despite the opponent being without some key players and with non-competitive attitude.This Ulissess is not looking special at all. They finished the domestic league as the runner-ups (8 clubs), 11 points short of the champions. They won 7 visiting games (out of 14) and finished with more goals conceded than goals scored. Birkirkara lost two out of 17 home games. They have a new coach and some new acquisitions and wants to finally get in the race with Hibernirans. The visitors have a team very similar to that one from last season, only they can't count on the top scorer here. Even with him in the lineup, they scored 16 goals in 14 visiting games. If the Armenians are favorites, I think they will have to confirm it home since I'm pretty sure they will not win here. Details

According to all the information available and results from the previous seasons, Valletta are my favorites. Maltese football is at the bottom quality-wise, but they're no worse than Welsh football. I think they're better because of the number of foreigners and their contribution. But, this is not just a clash of Maltese and Welsh football, but also about these clubs' positions inside their own leagues. Valletta are at the Maltese top, and Newtown are at the bottom of their league.After 32 rounds they ended their home championship as sixth with 39 points less than the champions, and a negative goal-difference. They concede more than two goals per match. They reached Europe in playoffs with other teams between fourth and seventh place. The Welsh get scrapes in Europe per usual (last year Bangor against Iceland's Stajrnan with a total 8-0, Aberstwyth against Irish Derry with a total 9-0...), and I would say that his Newton are weaker than other teams. The first idea was the Maltese team passing for which you could have gotten 1.7. That fell below 1.5, but the basic odds remained the same. In 16 home matches last year they had six wins; in 17 away matches in their championship, Valletta had only three defeats. I'm pretty sure that the Maltese team will make a big step today in order to pass. Details

There are rumors that the Croatian team will try to get a record win, which means 8+ goals scored. It'll be one of their best chances, considering they're going to host an amateur team who don't have the strength to play 90 minutes, and the weather won't work in their favor, or the natural grass because they play on fake grass at home. Also, a lot of the Croatian players want to prove themselves to the coach Kovač, and I think they'll go full force from the first minute, and won't slow down. The stand are expected to be full in Varaždin, which is an extra motive for the Croatians. If the rhythm goes down a bit, Kovač can have six substitutes. Kramarić, Pašalić, Perišić and the team are ready on the bench. I believe Croatian can do at least what these teams did: Scotland (6-1), Ireland (7-0), Germany scored only four (till the 38th minute) but had 36 shots at their goal, 20 corner hits, and 75% ball possession. I think Croatia will have about 20 shots to the Gibraltar goal, and that will be enough for 6-7 goals. Enough for this handicap, even if Gibraltar manage to score, which I doubt they will. Details

This Nigerian generation won the U17 WC two years ago and confirmed their quality in March to win the continental U20 championship (with a somewhat weaker team that this one). They came here as one of the heaviest favorites for the title. They won the championship with six wins and one draw, all six in handicap. The goal difference was terrifying 26-5- This March, they had four wins and one draw with 12-4 goal difference. Those results are no coincidence, this team has been together for a long time and this generation is expected to reach great achievements. The opening of the WC saw them face the toughest opponent Brazil) and played great the first half. The first half finished at 2-2 but Nigeria should have been in the lead given their performance. They lost 4-2 in the end after their goal keeper made two big mistakes. There is a possibility of a change at that position because Alampaso is on the bench (the top goal keeper at the aforementioned U17 WC). North Korea played poorly against Hungary. They were bad in defense and seem to struggle with physically more powerful and faster teams. I believe they can concede at least 3-4 goals against this Nigeria, lead by Success (Granada), Iheanacho (Man. City), Awoniyi (Kalmar) i Yahaya (Tottenham), if they conceded 5 against Hungary. I guess the odds are dropping due to talks about the Nigerian coach resting some starters. But the substitutes are good as well and they are a whole different level compared to the opponent. Since Korea have no choice, I think Nigeria will win for sure. The combination of their offense-oriented game, the ability to crush the opponents and the poor-quality Korea makes me believe in a win by more than one goal. Details

Scotland can get to the EC with just a point if the other match is a draw. However, if the other match is a draw, Croatia too can advance if they win by 3 or more. This generation, regardless of winning just a point in their first two matches, can beat the Scottish team by 3 goals. Be that as it may, I still see this match going two ways - either Croatia will blow the game wide open and score 3-4 goals, or they will disintegrate and concede 2-3 in an "all in" game. I would not bet on this is Scotland were positive to advance if they get a draw, but I doubt they'll engage in such calculations. If they play a draw, they can only get through on an 'X' in the other match, which is hard to expect as both Austria and Italy can get through only if they win. Details

Schalke have one defeat in 13 home matches in Bundesliga, and Bayer have 5 wins in 12 away matches. They are only three points apart on the league table, and I really can't see why the guests would be such a heavy favorite. True, Schalke have absences' problems, but that's been their standard this entire season. They didn't get their previous results with a better team, actually, they had worse lineups occasionally. Bayer don't have so many absences, but they do have accumulated fatigue. Four days ago, they played 120 minutes of a demanding match and were disappointed after being eliminated after the penalty shootout. Players can't get in and out of game in football like in other sports, so fatigue plays a much bigger role. The visiting coach announced resting some players to keep them fresh, to a degree. Bayer didn't win here in their last three away matches, and I don't think they will today, either. Bottom line is, I think the odds should be set in reverse here. Details

If we'd eliminate all the fortunate and unfortunate circumstances in the three rounds of the second part of the season, Hannover would have 4-5 points instead of one, and Paderborn would still have zero, with a few goals conceded. No need to expect that the harmless 35-meter shots will bounce off and end up behind the home team's back today, or that the home players will miss penalty shots, or that the guest goalie will save one sure hit after another. Hannover are a good host (five wins in nine matches), they only lose points against the best. Paderborn celebrated away at the beginning of the season, and got point three other times thanks to having luck. But, 20 goals conceded in 10 away matches tells you something. Hannover's got a better team on every line, and I think they'll end their series of bad results today. Paderborn didn't win for ten matches, their goal difference is 0-8 in 2015, and I'm pretty sure they'll continue their road to the second league today. Regardless of them being the hit of the championship at the beginning. Neither coach has to struggle with the absences, so this bet is based on quality, form, and home field advantage. Everything is on the home team's side, and I think that's more than enough for the odds offered. Details

The games UAE played so far showed how atypical this Asian team are. They're very powerful offensively, and can create a few great chances to score against anybody. They scored six in the first two games. True, Iran didn't concede a goal in the first two matches, but they'll have to open up today because only a win will get them to the first place. Write it all down, and this is how it is: Iran are stronger defensively, but one point means nothing to them and they have to attack. Considering that for them it's the same whether it ends 0-0 or if they lose 4-0, they can't calculate. UAE can't defend 0-0 and secure the first place like that. Playing the bunker would mean sacrificing the best they've got (offensive players), and relying on the defense that conceded a goal against Qatar or Bahrain. And if they do concede one goal, it's all the same to them if it ends 1-0 or 4-0. So, whenever the result is a draw, their fast players will have space behind the Iranian defense. I think the odds would be realistic if things were the other way around, if Iran could settle with one point and if they wanted to keep 0-0. This way, I'd set the odds for the margin at 2.5 goals. The luxury of a void if they stop at exactly 2 gives value to this bet. Details

Result-wise, this game is irrelevant for both teams. But saying that South Korea doesn't care about any international game would be very wrong. They will definitely be motivated after the two opening defeats and will want to record a win or at least at a point. Anything is better than returning home to Kim Jong-un empty-handed. Most importantly, Korea are not as bad as their results suggest. It could easily happen that they get at least a point today. The four goals they conceded to Saudi Arabia were more a case of bad lack than of bad quality. Their defense is normally not doing as badly. China did nothing to make me find their game brilliant, but got six points regardless. They've used their chances and this meeting could be a chance for the coach to rest the key players since they don't need this win. I'm not convinced in their substitutes' quality, though. I've seen them numerous times over the past two years and they've, as a rule, been struggling if the opponents weren't the worst teams like Singapore, Malasia, Kirghistan...In a meeting between an unmotivated team that will have mostly substitutes in the line-up and a very motivated team on the other hand, I think these odds are off. Details

No need to doubt that there'll be lots of "unders" in this competition, but the odds set by default make no sense to me. It's just not the same when Uzbekistan face North Korea, or UAE face Qatar. Today's opponents are one of the rare Asian teams who like to outplay each other. There's lots of chances in their games, and their biggest stars by far are the offensive players, who evoke interest in the European clubs, as well. Both these teams had games with no goals, but for example, UAE have 6/6 overs on the 1.5 margin in the qualifiers, and Qatar's got 3/3 (2 unders with Bahrein who finished the qualifiers with 7-1 in the group with Malaysia and Yemen, which tells you all you need to know about their game). In the last four games Qatar played, 14 goals were scored. Okay, two of those were friendly, but two before that were the Gulf Cup final and semifinal. Abdulrahman and Makbout on one side, and Ibrahim, Abdulla and Koukhi on the other should guarantee that we'll see at least two goals in this game. Details

Osijek are a team that wins points mostly on account of their physical strength, when they get a chance for it. And the chance can hardly be better than Lokomotiva, who will be without half their squad today. Unlike Osijek, who have quite an experienced players at their disposal, Lokomtiva will have to do with youngsters who won't be able to fight back if Osijek play an aggressive game. This is the best opportunity Osijek will have in a while for getting the three points. Lokomotiva won 4-1 here last summer, but two scorers and a number of other players left since. They beat Osijek in Zagreb too, but 5 of Lokomotiva's players from that match are no longer at the club. That changes things today, making the previous head-to-head matches completely irrelevant. Details