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I watched Marcora against Riba yesterday, and I was really impressed. I saw him play before, right about the time he started playing good tennis, and dismissed it as a passing phase, but his consistency convinced me. He is also not a typical clay player. He has a good first serve, he attacks the ball early, hits strong and straight, and is offense focused. I particularly liked how he demolished Riba yesterday. He lost the first set, though I would say he did not deserve to. I expected him to fall apart, as he was the better player in that segment, but it did not happen. He allowed the Spaniard three more games in the rest of the match. Grigelis beat Pouille, but the Frenchman is obviously struggling this season in general and with not playing for two months after forfeiting his last match. Grigelis took advantage of that in the best possible way, and also came to Brasov with six consecutive victories and a 1-4 score on clay. He is basically a fast surface player as those bring out his strong suits most, which are above all his serve and and aggression. At the start of the season he said his primary goals were to improve his clay performance, which was his biggest weak spot. However, he played just 4 clay tournaments and won only one up to Brasov. He is not in good form, does not play on clay, and is facing a clay player in career best form, who will not allow Grigelis to attack first and spread him over the court, as the Italian is also an aggressive player, but he grew up on clay and its his native surface. Everything points to a routine victory for Marcora. There are no handicaps for this match, so I chose a sets handicap. For those looking for a safer bet, I'd recommend a clean win by the Italian. Details

I have to say I'm a bit surprised by the odds on Sharapova, I though they'd be around 1,50. Let me explain why I don't trust the Dane. The Russian is the better player, of course. Despite losing a set against Dulgheru and not playing best against Lisicki, she still manages to win with such form, just like at Roland Garros, which is the difference between winners and 'just' good players. Wozniacki lost a set to Rybrikova, who played with an injury, beat Sasnovich who is far from a proven player, and then beat Petkovic, who said herself she's been playing poorly for the last month. The match before that Wozniacki won against Puig in three hard sets. I was not impressed by the Danish player, at least at the US Open, as she just took what was offered. Adding their prior match history to this, the mental setup in these kind of matches favors Sharapova, who limited the Dane to four games at the IW last year. Details

I have already written a tip on Smyczek in the first round and I'll write it again. His match against Krajinović has confirmed everything I know and I like what I saw. He's in a great rhythm and form, which is his main asset. After losing the first set, he allowed only single break chance in the remaining three sets and turned the match around without losing his serve. It was a great game on his behalf and I have to admit I wanted Bautista Agut to go through as I knew the bookies would favor him, which his USO matches haven't deserved. He lost in two sets against Lopez, he played a three-set match against Klizan, and then got crushed by Monfils. In the first round, Haider-Maurer took him into a five-set match. The Spaniard has had a great season but he's lost his rhythm in the past month and it shows. On the other hand, the American is in a great rhythm. Bautista may be the favorite, but I don't see this as an easy match for the Spaniard. Details

There are two reasons why I'm playing handicap on Venus today. First, the American never suited Errani, and won all three of their previous matches easily, with the Italian never winning more than 3 games per set. Second, but just as important, is that Errani played poorly in the first two rounds. It was a weak show, shallow and lukewarm torture of the worst kind although she won both matches in two sets, especially true for the second round match against Rodionova. It's enough to say she basically said herself that she has not chance if she repeats that performance against Venus, and that she does not like playing against her. The American had a tough first match, but that was down to Date-Krumm's style, a problem from Venus previously as well. In the second round she demolished her opponent, and the previous record and match up say that today should be an easy job. Errani is playing poorly, and the match would hinge on Venus' performance even if Errani were playing well, which she isnt'... Details

Sousa is a Top 50 player but he has often played below that level. At the same time Dancevic is a Top 100 material but is not in that company. My subjective opinion is that the Portuguese will cover this handicap and I have a few reasons to believe that. First of all, Sousa is not player to rush out and Bombard the Canadian with his strokes but he will patiently build his game. Longer rallies mean more chances for winning points against players like Dancevic. Secondly, Frank has been complaining about his injuries every other match and best-out-of-three matches are his sore spot. There's no way he can hold the same intensity throughout the entire match and that's something Sousa is capable of. The Portuguese was close to beating Janowicz last week, and he would probably have won had the Pole admitted touching the ball during the crucial break chance. Joao has many problems but the fact is when he's on his best day, he's a Top 50 player. What does Dancevic have? 6-4 6-0 against Paire, a on set against Young, and then 6-0 6-3, and 6-1 6-3 against the same player. Sousa is better than both of those players; Dancevic may have the talent to take one set but he loses sets by 6-0 just because he can't keep up constant intensity. That's why I will go for this handicap that I think can go through in 5 sets, while Sousa's win is not even in doubt. After all, Dancevic has only passed the first round of USO once in 11 attempts. Details

Krajinović has passed the qualifications for US Open, which is good for him. After all, his talent was never in doubt, but none of his wins were for odds over 1.30, he was the favorite in any case. On the other hand, we have Smyczek who flew to America after Wimbledon and has been playing hard court tournaments ever since. He has gotten 4 ATP wins in this period (Harrison, Chardy, Kamke, Kuznetsov). These are good results and coupled with the fact that he's had 14 hard court matches, I think he's a bigger favorite than the odds suggest. Filip can play on every surface but the odds are a bit unreal as he passed the qualifications in which he faced weak opposition. People tend to forget that clay is his main surface and that most of his success comes from challengers, while Smyczek is a real American tennis player - a hard court specialist. He's in Top 100 and Krajinovć isn't and has never been. Smyczek is better used to these conditions and he's a bigger favorite than the odds show here. Details

Young confessed to asking Istomin whether he's alright during their match in Washintong almost a month ago. Istomin said that everything was fine, and that he was just tired. But, the performances he had following that match made it very cleat that something was off. It was obvious that he wasn't doing his best. He says everything is alright physically, which would suggest his form is off at the moment. But, I think it's the combination of the two. Gasquet forfeited his last match, but I think he has no major problems. He recorded a few wins on hard court following a few disappointing performances. He's not doing brilliantly, but he is still doing much better than Istomin at the moment. This sounds like a pick against Istomin, but it's also a pick at Gasquet, who is the better-quality player. Besides, the Frenchman is often very defense-oriented, which will do him good in this match. Istomin lost confidence, and won't be able to win longer rallies. Richard will be patient and wait for Istomin to make a mistake. And he will. Gasquet reached semi final here last year. Details

I like the fact that Sharapova is cautious ahead of this match. That means that she won't relax and fail to take Kirilenko seriously. I think Sharapova on her 100% should be too much for Kirilenko, who's only played 7 matches this season. She beat Stephens at Wimbledon and then won only three games against Peng and hasn't played ever since. Even though she says that she's feeling well, the fact that she hasn't played since then tells me that her wrist is far from good as no player goes out of actin for two months without a valid cause. Sharapova has struggled in her last two tournaments but this Kirilenko is nowhere near her level and Sharapova should be able to to make use of that. Details

Przysiezny has been lost so far this year, and nothing suggests he'll improve. He is so far at a 6-24 won-lost score, which speaks by itself. Apart from that, he rather struggled against Travaglio in the first round, a man with seven wins on concrete in his career and 14 matches played. The Polak played three tie breaks, won less points than a pure clay player on concrete, and Travaglia could have done even better were it not for his 1/6 break points. If we consider everything, his form, games, the impression he left this season and in the first round match here in New York, I just don't see why he is any kind of a favorite against Kravchuk. The Russian is a good server and specializes in faster surfaces. He would also like to play indoors or on grass, but he played nine matches on concrete after Wimbledon as well, and this was the first one for Przysiezny, and he did not exactly shine. He is in terrible shape and only managed to take Travaglia's serve once in a three set, three tie break match, which goes to prove his bad rhythm, lack of confidence. I think the Russian will know how to take advantage of that, especially as he is a player ho goes with the strikes, does now wait, has distinct strengths in the form of his serve and aggressive playstyle, and I believe that will be enough to beat Przysiezny in this state. Details

Granted, Makarova is doing well, but is she doing good enough for the odds against the Top 5 player to be evened out? I don't think so! Petra has not been knocked out before the final here the last two seasons. Two years ago she won the title, and lost to Halep in the final last year. Kvitova has done the last two tournaments disappointingly, but bad game on her part and good game on Makarova's part are the reason she lost the last head-to-head meeting with this opponent. That was probably the best Makarova can do, while Kvitova is capable of much more. The Czech is simply a better player, and she doesn't deserve to be underestimated like this. The odds were 1,35 two weeks ago, but now they're 1,90. The first ones were off, and so are these. Kvitova is the favorite when meeting any player who's not Top 20, always and at every tournament. But the odds are not set according to that here Details

I opted for Montanse yesterday, and I 'm going to do the same today. He's had a huge test for his mental strength against Gimeno-Traver yesterday and passes it successfully. His game is better than it was in Umag and Kitzbuhel. The Spaniard got better, and that's more than obvious. Also, he's better than Starace, especially at this moment. And this is Starace's first good result this season. I can't forget the last six months because of one good win (Lorenzi). On top of that, the Spaniard has a 7-3 record against him, and he beat Starace a week ago in San Marino. What could have changed since then? Not much. He is the better player, and Starace seemed more tired after his semi final match. Details

Hats off to Ymer for defeating Ramirez-Hidalgo, but I have a feeling the Spaniard doesn't have one day left in Cordenons more than necessary. The rain, breaks, matches played with two days delay. The Swede had to use that because as weird as it sounds, it meant more to him. Ramirez-Hidalgo isn't playing for the ranking, he's 36 years old and that's the least of his priorities. He's playing for the love of tennis, he often said that, and there's no pleasure in playing during the biggest storm ever. So, Ymer's convincing win boosted his self-confidence, and Lorenzi is a better player than the Swede. Actually, the Italian did everything in his career in matches like these. Matches where he's the favorite. Lorenzi is a much better player, a Top 100 player who rarely makes mistakes against players ranked lower. The odds are hyped up because of Ymer's win against Ramirez-Hidalgo, but the first round is a more realistic depiction of his quality, as is the rest of the season, and I believe Lorenzi will ground him today, so he won't fly too high. Details

Thiem said that his match against Vesely yesterday was his best in recent weeks. That shows he's had problems with his performances as he had his ups and downs. He saved break chance in the first game, he saved it on his set serve. The reasons are the same as when I went for the counter-handicap with Souza. The Austrian is not playing well, regardless of what he says as we have seen much better things from him. Despite his weaker season, Granollers is the best player here in Kitzbuhel. He's defending the title, he feels well on this altitude and these two defeats against Thiem were not some devastating defeats. After all, he had 5-2 in the last match and he missed a match point. It's actually good that he lost as that match only increased the odds for today. Both matches could have gone either way and Thiem doesn't deserve to be such favorite, because of Granollers as a player and his own performance here and in recent weeks. I believe that the Spaniard will win as this is too much underestimation of a Top 30 player who's defending the title. If this were Thiem from two months ago, I wouldn't mind but this way I see no reason for it. Details

The odds on Darcis are too high here with no realistic reason for it. He took a one-year break due to shoulder injury, but his performances after his return weren't too poor. For instance, he took a set against Zeballos in his last challenger, and he crushed Bagnis yesterday. Pavlasek has played two good challengers this year, but he's also had his share of blunders. He crushed Mertl, who's out of form and that's why the odds are like this. The Belgian is playing much better than the results show and he's realistically a Top 200 player now. Pavlasek is having a good season but his performances cannot be compared to Darcis's. The bookies have taken Pavlasek's performance in the first round and Darcis's break into consideration. But, Mertl is in poor form and Darcis has shown he's coming back. The odds should be 1.40 on Steve in my opinion. Details

Zverev played two great tournaments and showed his quality, but the majority of it was also pure adrenalin. I saw plenty of gaps and things to work on in his last two matches. Ferrer allowed him a single game, and Montanes won on pure experience, playing merely solid tennis. In my opinion Schwartzman is just the type of player that would not suit him right now, similar to Montanes. The Argentinian is consistent, able to hold the ball in play and not make mistakes often. He will go for placement, not strength, and this will require Zverev to move a lot, which turned out to be a problem in Umag. Even when he attacks, Schwartzman's excellent movement and anticipation will require an extra exchange or two to get the point. In such a duel I trust the Argentinian more, and although one should not look at it that way, I'm convinced that the odds on this match would be 1.20 in favor of him a month ago. The tennis and situation did not change that much. It's not a 1.20, but on the other hand I would not go as far to make Schwartzman the underdog here either. Details

This is a tip based on player form. On one hand we have Samper-Montana who did OK in challengers, but his last two such tournaments saw him easily lose matches he was favored to win. He did not do well in the Bundesliga either, losing three of his six matches. Smirnov on the other hand showed quality in futures early this year, with a score of 33-1 at one point. Most importantly, he got through the qualifications in his last three challengers, including this one in Liberec, and has already played two matches which is always very important. Although he did not win a lot at this level, looking at who he faced in the last month and lost, it's no wonder he did. Riba, Gonzalez, Rola - the elite of challengers. However, qualifiers and main draws, beating players such as Džumhur, and demolishing Lapentti in Poznan two weeks ago, all that suggests quality. On one side we have the Spaniard with perhaps the worst tennis he's played this year, and on a losing streak, on the other the Ukrainian in much better rhythm. Details

If there's a place where Haase always plays well, it's Kitzbuhel. He's won two titles and has reached the semifinal in last 3 seasons. The conditions suit him, and he had what is possibly the best tournament this season last week. Lorenzi is a mix of a challenger/ATP player and he generally wins against weaker players and loses against stronger ones. He's the weaker player here and even though the Dutchman hasn't had a dream season, he probably won't disappoint here in Kitzbuhel, like he hasn't done in last three years. The Italian has nothing to surprise Haase and it's obvious he has the mental barrier against ATP-level players since he missed 5-3 (40-15) against Carreno-Busta in the first round of Umag last week. Details

Thiem's been playing really badly lately. Just read his statements after the matches, where things like "this is not tennis", "no strength", "no hits" dominate. He got through against Granollers in Hamburg, but Mayer got even for that, and then, Troicki defeated him last week, Troicki who didn't play competitive tennis for a year. Souza, on the other hand, is playing the best tennis of the season. True, everything he did, he did on the challenger level, but no doubt he's got a better rhythm than the Austrian. Besides, he played the semifinals here three years ago, and conditions like these, with this altitude definitely suit him, he showed it numerous times in South America. Of course, the Austrian is a favorite in this match, and closer to the win, but I think Souza won't go without doing something here. He's in a great form, and you definitely can't say the same for Thiem who's playing his worst tennis this year. Details

I really don't see why Vesely is favored like this, he didn't deserve it. First of all, I don't think the Czech is a better player at all at the moment. The German is, tennis wise, a player with more distinct hits, advantages and virtues. Even though Struff relaxed a bit after two ATP semifinals and a Challenger title, he showed why he got that in Gstaad this year. Unlike Vesely who's still in crisis. The Czech had three defeats in the first rounds of clay tournaments after Wimbledon, and was a favorite in all three. Last week, I saw him in Umag, and he was disappointing. Riba was the one who attacked and took initiative. That can't happen, and it's obvious that Jiri's game sucks at the moment. Struff is a player with more obvious attacking weapons and in conditions like these in Kitzbuhel, that should be his advantage. Add to that the impression from the last tournament, and the fact that the German finally showed something, while Vesely continued with disastrous performances, I expected the German to be the favorite here. I think he'll win, and I have +2.5 games here. Details

Lajović may not be playing attractive tennis, and you probably won't see a highlight reel with lovely rallies after his matches, but he plays consistent tennis and is currently at his career best ranking, with a tendency to enter Top 50. Gabashvili on the other hand is probably playing his worst tennis this year, and is also struggling with a leg injury. Last week he played in the Bundesliga, a match his team captain called a farce. He is on a three game losing streak, and Lajović is entering this match in much better form and the has the quarterfinal of Hamburg to prove it. Details