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I would put Linette more into focus here than Azarenka. You always know what to expect from her, especially now that she's won Indian Wells and is playing well in general. Besides, she beat Serena Williams in the finals, that's enough to get some things straight. But, let's get back to the Pole. Truth be told, she passed the qualifications here, beat Mattek-Sands, but the American is in desperate shape. I find the matches in which she doesn't do well against better players, such as Azarenka, more important. This season she played a couple of times against Top players and she only won three games against Veson, and lost with six games of difference to Stephens. Azarenka is better than both of them. She lost to Puig with only three games won, and Azarenka beat Puig yesterday with six games of difference. Last season Linette lost in the under to Age, Stephens, Venus and Pliskova, and we have to agree that this Azarenka is better than all of them at the moment. She is the second tennis player of the world, despite what the ranking may tell us. Besides, Linette's game style is such that she relies on footwork, and because of that Azarenka won't be endangered offensively. I thik the Pole won't win more than five games. Details

Truth be told, Venus had a bad start of the season. She lost her first two matches as a big favorite. She did not play well, she made a lot of unforced errors, but she improved the impression with her performances after that. She won two matches in the Fed Cup, and won the title in Asia. She is currently on a seven match winning run, and in all seven she covered the -5 handicap. Even though her opponents were not top class players, neither is Kurumi Nara. Her score against Top 20 players last year says a lot. Kerber - lost by 8 games, Pliskova - by 6 games, Kvitova - by 10 games, Safarova - by 10 games, Vinci - by 2 games. So six matches against players who are at the same level as Venus, and the Japanese lost five matches by six or more games. That is a consequence of her playing style. Her performance is dominated by lack of weapons, her serve is pretty much non-existing, and she can hardly win anything offensively. She is vulnerable in every service game, and that is obvious in their head-to-heads. Last year Venus defeated her by 7, a year earlier by 6. Another important thing, Venus covered this handicap in her last 7 straight wins. Nara lost only once this year by less than five games and when she loses, she loses convincingly. Considering the quality difference, handicap has been set very low. Head-to-head matches are in our favor, Venus' last matches as well, and the impression Nara has been leaving against top players. In this bet we also have the fact that Venus is ending her boycott of Indian Wells, and that she is fired-up, at least that's what she's saying. I think that she will be welcomed, just like Serena was last year, and I think that that will motivate her to play well. But those are not very important things, realistically. Details

Zacarias tried to pass the WTA tournament qualifiers seven times. It never worked, and she only got two wins. Whenever she'd face a WTA player, it didn't go well. She played three of those, with these results: Goerges -11 games, Wozniak -8 games, and Matteks Sands -9 games. Looking even more detailed, she played a few other matches against WTA players, and lost convincingly. Yes, shedid have six points different against Dominguez and Mattek, and once five against Dominguez, but also eight against Duque Marino and 10 against Ormaechea. Puig is better than any of them, especially because she started the season really well. Sydney final, Australian Open third round, and she lead 6-3 3-1 against Wickmayer last week. Also, Zacarias played a match only once this season, she lost by 10 games to Panova. She's having big problems with her hip, so her form is questionable. If nothing else, she lacks rhythm due to all of that. An opponent like Puig should take advantage of that to win convincingly. I'd trust the Puerto Rican to cover this even if Zacarias wasn't in the situation she's in, but like this, I think it makes this pick a great one. Details

This is the same bet I've had against Rodriguez a week ago when she faced Wickmayer. The Belgian lost a set then, won the third set tie-break, and still won by six points. She had no game plan, she played badly, without a clue, and still had 6-5 and 30-15 on her serve to cover for -6. I like it that Rodriguez is playing McHale now even better than I did when she played Wickmayer. The Belgian was unnecessarily overly aggressive, made a lot of mistakes, while McHale will be more patient, and get her advantage through the rallies where she's the superior one. So, Rodriguez will make more mistakes, so I think this pick is even better than the one with Wickmayer. As for Rodriguez herself, she loses to WTA players by at least seven (except for Wickmayer, obviously). Last year, she lost to Falconi by eight in this tournament's qualifiers. Duque Marino by 10, Konta eight, Golubić seven, Soler Espinosa seven, Hesse nine. The year before that, she lost to Kumhkum by eight on this same court, Martić, Dominguez in this same handicap, Keys left her with only two games. With all the bad tennis Wickmayer played, and her good, she still voided this bet last week. I give her less chance today to cover this handicap, and I think this is an ideal chance for McHale to cover -6. Especially because she played well in Acapulco and got to the semis. Details

Bertens played doubles final in Acapulco last week. She didn't have much time for rest and had to travel almost 1000km to get to Monterrrey where she had two qualifying matches to play right away. She spent over 4 hours on the court in those two, struggling against Johansson at 1,15 odds and losing a set. She lost one to Golubic in the second set as well. Parmentier is definitely much better rested and left a much better impression in qualifiers as she won them in straight sets. Also, she beat Bertens on hard court in Miami last week and also indoors the year before. Parmientedr is therefore 2-0 in the last two seasons against Bertens, she's better rested and left a good impression in qualifiers. I would agree that Bertens is the favorite here. Details

Azarenka started the season furiously. Her opponents literally collected games against her. Vesnina (two games), Bonaventura (five), Vinci (three), Crawford (three), Kerber (four), Van Uytvanch (zero), Kovinic (three), Osaka (two), Strycoba (six), and then she got beaten by Kerber. The same one whom she left with four games the week before. That ruined the impression a bit, but bets like these should be default on Azarenka. You could see at the beginning of the year how eager she was, and I don't think anything changed after the Australian Open. I still expect her to bite for every point, play convincingly, and I don't have to explain how much better she is than Hercog. Also, when she can crush it, she does. Hercog's got a great score covering this handicap (39-7 this and last season), but the Slovenian covered that against players who can't compare to Azarenka. The only two Top 10 players she played with, she lost by seven (Muguruza, Ivanović), and Azarenka bested both of them at the beginning of the season. She's a better player, more stable, aggressive, and prone to crushing her opponents. Also, Hercog hasn't played well at the beginning of the season. Stephens and Janković beat her by six, Lisicki by five even though Lisicki was bad, and Azarenka is better than all of them, so I think Victoria will get another convincing win. I don't think she'll lose more than five games today. Details

Everything here is about Rodriguez and her quality or lack thereof. She's here on a wildcard and would not play WTA level otherwise. I'll start with the obvious. Rodriguez is far from WTA level and did well only on minor IFT tournaments. She was never Top 200. Last year was the best one ever for her and she still lost to Falconi by 8 games, to Dunque by 10, Hesse by 9, Konta by 7, Soler Espinoza by 7 and Golubic by 7. Too many of them are not good at WTA level. Wickmayer is more powerful than all of them. The Mexican lost by this handicap last season to Dominguez-Lion, Martic (!) and Kumkhun. Keys limited her to two games there. Rodriguez lost two out of the three matches this season to players outside of top 300. She got only two games against the 349th player int he lsat match. I think that says it all and that Wickmayer will win this easily by 6 games at least. Details

Taking into consideration only stats, Chardy is not the ideal choice when it comes to betting on safe wins. He covered the -4,5 only 6 times in 23 matches this and last season on ATP hard court. However, he mostly played very good players. Duckworth and Golubev are maybe the only ones at Ebden's level, while all the other ones were Top 50 players. However, that's not the main reason for my choice of this bet. Ebden was never ATP level. He opened the season horribly, recorded 4 defeats in 4 matches, all four with this handicap. None of his opponents were Chardy's level. Gimeno beat him on hard court by more than 4 games, Granollers as well, De Bakker crushed him indoors and he retired in the last match. Ebden is having some sort of knee problems and all of those things make him a perfect opponent for Chardy. Clay court specialists crushed him at hard court and Chardy will do the same here. Chardy has shortcomings but he's Top 30 and has covered this handicap in both head-to-head meetings with Ebden. Even if Ebden was in top form and fully fit, I would still trust Chardy here, Details

I have to admit I was a bit skeptical about Ram on clay. He hasn't played on it in a long time, since 2012, and he avoided it for a reason. I couldn't bet on counter-handicap against Zeballos even though I knew that the Argentinian is not a smasher. However, even if I had some doubts around Quito and the conditions there, both Ramos and Ram changed my opinion. There is no need for caution. Altitude is not only relevant, but the most important factor. Ram hit 15 aces, won 73% of second serve points against Zeballos. He didn't lose his serve in the entire match. Ramos also left Lajovic without a break chance and earned only one, and they are two classic clay-court players basis of whose performance is not the serve. I expect a similar scenario today. Ram is not a clay-court player and he suffered some defeats in the past which are hard to explain from the point of view of this prediction, but Quito is anything but an ordinary tournament. Actually, it is even faster than some hardcourt tournaments, and all because of the altitude. Besides, it's enough to look at Ram's serving stats. Ramos also isn't s smasher, so we have Ram who has a perfect court for his game style in Quito, and we have Ramos' forfeit in doubles. But he would be betting on this without that forfeit, it's just an added bonus. The bet is based on Ram who can play his game here, regardless of the fact it is played and clay and I think that wasn't accounted for in the odds and margins. Details

Klizan is a bit stubborn and strange but this is about his opponent. Lazov got here on a wildcard but he's no young or perspective player. He will turn 26 this year and is 1-3 at challenger level. To have only 4 challengers matches at 25 says a lot. He did have some successful futures but that's a while different level. He already talking about how tricky it is to play a leftie and these conditions aren't his favorite. He didn't play a single match in these conditions last season and lost both the season before. Lazov feels best on clay court. Klizan did open the year well but he played 5 sets at AO with Busta. He needs one easy win now and Lazov seems like the perfect opportunity. He's a typical futures player. Details

There are a couple of reasons why I'm taking a handicap for Murray. The first reason is Tomic himself, so I'll start with that. In three rounds Bernard has shown all but routine, and the fact that he's playing a bit weaker than what he played at the same place a year ago. He could have gone into the fifth set against Istomin. Then I played a sure bet on him and I had things to see. By the end of the fourth set Istomin had a break-point and a chance to take the match into the fifth set. Bernard looked drained by that time. Like he was without energy. Against Bolelli he played good until the match-serve. Since then he could only follow the yellow ball with his eyes. He didn't even try to reach them. He looked anything but convincing once more.
The second reason why I'm playing this is Murray himself. Yesterday he played a bad match, and he still won with nine games of difference against Sousa. Before that he allowed Zverev six games, only five against Groth who has the strongest serve in the world. Generally, Andy looked really, really good. The level of tennis is far beyond Tomic. We're also reaching a matchup in this match in which Tomic has nothing against Murray's game, especially physically speaking. Andy makes very few errors, and punished short points and serves well. Tomic, especially with the way he is here, simply won't be able to play long exchanges against Murray and expect a point. He looks drained, without energy. Head-to-head matches reveal a lot of thing. Last year Murray beat him in DC with nine points of difference, and before that he covered this handicap twice in a match at two sets. Details

What makes me confident about this tip is the fact Sharapova beat both of her previous opponets in this handicap and still has room to improve her game. There were some moments in which she wasn't doing her best against Hibino and Sasnovich, but that will get better as the tournaments advances. Sharapova now has two matches and I think we can expected her to do her best today. Davis doesn't have the kind of serve that can force Sharapova into running. Sharapova will control the pace from the start. Davis' strong suit is defense but that defense is not good enough to create trouble for Sharapova. I think the matchup is ideal for the Russian. I think Davis is worse than Hibino both in defense and offense. Mari limited Hibino to our games. Only a vrey bad day for Sharapova can destroy this but I don't think she will a have bad day. Details

In the first round, Sharapova was talking about not playing this season, how she could be rusty, and she'll probably make more errors than usual. These are all low margins for the under, or high ones for the over, so there's no room for mistake. Considering everything, Sharapova played great. She covered the handicap against Hibirno, who won one WTA title last year, started 2016 well, much, much better than Sasnovich. She beat Rodina, but Rodina didn't get any wins this year. She was losing by five points to a player outside top 100 before the AO, and by ten against Putintseva. Her form is bad. No sense talking much about Sharapova's quality. Sasnovich's got nine WTA wins in her career, and can't be compared to Masha. Looking at this huge handicap that's hard to cover, Sharapova didn't cover it only six times in 19 hardcourt matches last season. True, there were six voids, but that only proves how she's crushing it. The only player she didn't cover it against was Panova. We all remember the last year's match where Panova played the best match of her life. Maria crushes it, whenever she gets the chance. The statistics prove it, too. I think Sasnovich is less dangerous than Hibino who at least has some rhythm and played great tennis in the last year. Details

Putintseva finished last year in the Top 100 - finally. However, she hasn't really proved that she is a strong player of that level. Her 10-17 record is not really great, and after the Bastad semi-final it has been 1-8. Wozniacki is a whole other world for her. There is no point in explaining that further. I looked at Putintseva's performances against players at the same level as Wozniacki in the last 2 years. She lost by 8 games to Aga, by seven to Pennetta, by seven to Venus, by 10 to Cornet, by seven to Stosur, by 9 to Bacsinszky. That is all from two years ago. Last year she lost by 8 to Ivanovic, then covered this handicap against Venus with 3 game difference, and was at the verge against Cornet (6). That means, of nine matches, she lost seven of them by seven or more. As far as Wozniacki is concerned, in the last two years, she has mostly defeated players like Putintseva with a handicap. At the margin of -6.5, in the last 2 years, she hasn't covered this margin 26 times, but she did cover it 16 times against players in the Top 30. Of the other 10 times, she won three times by 6 games. Two of those matches were against Goerges and Strycova who are realistically in the Top 50. Two matches I cannot explain, those when she had a bad day, were against Cetkovska and Jabeur, but that can happen when you don't play in over a year. This season she played three matches against similar opponents and she covered it twice. In the first match of the season she admitted that she was weaker (Kovinic), but that was expected. She came to Auckland a day or two before the tournament started. It seems to me that this will be another similar scenario like the ones Putintseva goes through against players like Wozniacki, and that is a convincing defeat. Details

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Dzumhur didn't play Top 10 players much in his career. He lost to Berdych by ten points and to Ferrer by nine points at the GS tournaments two years ago. He lost to Federer by 11 and nine points last year, also GS tournaments. I think he's an ideal matchup for the Czech here, who can then develop his offensive game without worrying about Damir's offensive game. I expect Dzumhur to be inferior from the start, because not only is he not the most defensive player, his hits also don't have the strength for him to be one. His serve isn't strong either, so I think Berdych will get many chances. When Berdych's playing well, he's playing great. Dzumhur's biggest strength is his movement, but even that isn't good enough for him to use it the entire time against top players. I expect Berdych to win easily. Details

Edmund will for sure have a three time better carrier compared to Ghem but it's not the future that matters here but the present. And the present is not brilliant for Edmund. He played only two matches in the last 2 months after suffering an injury at a DC practice. He played those matches after the US open. I saw the last one, which was completely rhythm-less, with the point finishing either as winners or unforced errors. Edmund has not played a single match in the last month and hasn't been on clay court since Roland Garros. He likes clay court as he played most of his matches on it, but he has not been on clay court for a long long time. Rhythm, form, transition and everything he will be faced with today are his shortcomings. Ghem is not the one for titles at this level but he did record +30 CH wins for two years in a row. He has 36 wins this season, which is no small feat. He's also been in South America for months and doesn't have to adapt to anything. Edmund does and I think this will be too big an obstacle for him. Details

Bedene fired 38 aces in 3 matches here. I remember some of his clay court challengers matches this season in which he sometimes had over 20 aces. He is no server but he can do very well on his serve. Janowicz had 10 aces in their qualifying match while Bedene had 19. He played Granollers yesterday and didn't drop a single service game. Isner is always predictable and this bet is a no brainer when it comes to him. I just wanted to point out that Bedene is a good server as well, which is why I'm going with this bet. Details

I had a doubt whether to go with the counterhandicap at Marchenko or games over. I decided on the games over in the end because I don't think Mrchenko will win in the end, which is they only way (his easy win) for this over to not happen. Counterhandicap, on the other hand, might not happen in the third set because the handicap is quite low. As the preview says, Marchenko is the toughest opponent for the Pole so far. He's on a good rhythm, serves well and has 5 straight wins. He is confident as well. Janowicz never wins his matches convincingly and I certainly don't expect him to do that in these conditions. I wouldn't be surprised if we see three sets here. But, the over would go even in two close sets but that's not important. What's important is that I think this will not be a one-sided win for either opponent and is that turns out to be true, this tip will be successful. Details