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Donati only started his season in March, but not because of an injury, but because the young Italian wanted to get ready as best as possible for the new season. He worked on his game, and even though it seemed like a dangerous decision at the time, it bore fruit. Indoor CH semifinal, a great match against Dancevic, and he got the best success of his career in Napoli. What matters, I think, is the way he got his wins against more experienced and renowned players. He beat the first seed Golubev, and Andrea Arnaboldi in the third set tie-break. He was losing with a set and a break to the Kazakh and a Top 100 player, but won. That shows his self-confidence and quality. Cecchinato didn't show he was untouchable, quite the contrary. He easily played the first round against an unworthy opponent, and then could have lost both matches that came after. Two duels against Quinzi and Zopp, which he won in the third set tie-break. Donati never looked better in his career, he already beat two names who are of the same quality as Cecchinati. Golubev is better, Arnaboldi a bit worse, so nothing can surprise Donati today. Considering this is the best tournament of his career, his self-confidence, I'm convinced Donati has a chance to win. I'll got with a safer pick, and a supply of three games on the younger Italian's side seems like a great bet. For those brave at heart, I recommend a win for a unit or two lower stake. Details

Granollers came to Casablanca last year with only one win in the previous 7 tournaments to reach the final. Things are pretty similar this year as well but we should cut him some slack as he didn't play on clay yet, which is his favorite surface. Betting on Granollers while he's on a 5-match losing run might be strange but the odds are almost equal here at Dzumhur who is a challenger-level player and who lost 4 times against Top 100 players (0-4). That can't be a coincidence. He is now set to face last season's finalist, who is not doing his best and who can only get better from now on. Dzumhur relies on running but so does Granollers. Anything Dzmhur can do, the Spaniards can do it better. Granollers has the upper hand in serving, a more diverse game and more attacking option. Mathieu, who is worse than Granollers, had 1.45 against Dzumhur. The odds are +1.80 at Granollers now and I cannot understand the logic behind them. I think this should be at 1.45 again but not because of Dzumhur - because of Granollers. These odds definitely have value in my opinion and I think Damir can win today. Details

I am following Almagro's matches since Golden Swing and I don't see any difference between this Almagro and the Top 20 Almagro in the last three or four weeks. Yesterday Taro stood firm, but when he lost the set, Almagro overwhelmed him with his aggressive tennis. The intensity which he has shown in that meeting was great on the side of the Spaniard, the game level too. He looked focused, good and motivated. What's better, we should expect him to get better and better from match to match. Berlocq is a player who, when wins, doesn't leave an impression on me. He used Carreno-Busta's nervousness, saved two match-points and won in the first round. When we dissect Almagro's and Berlocq's games, there not a single hit which is better with the Argentinian. He only has defense on his side, but I doubt Almagro will need the same. He will dominate this meeting with aggressive and firm hits from both sides, and if it's going to be an OK day for serves, I doubt Berlocq will have a lot of chances on the return. This is a match which will be decided by Almagro, his day, his level and his intensity, and Berlocq will rely on work and rushing. Considering that Almagro is very focused and eager to play and return after his injury, I doubt he will underestimate his opponents. Berlocq will raise his focus and I think Nico will win smoothly in two sets. Minimum with one break per set. Details

This is De Greef's first ATP match in his career. That's no coincidence. We're talking about a boy who's fighting for his spot under the sun on the CH level on which he has a negative record (16-24). I had a chance to see a couple of his matches. I saw him two weeks ago live in Istra where he lost to Bellotti. He's main "thing" is aggressiveness, but he can't keep it for a long time. He often makes errors from the third or fourth aggressive shot, and he's not someone who could physically "grind". Because of that the Belgian was never among Top 200, and I think Schwartzman is the worst possible roster he could have gotten. Last year the Argentinian won the final Masters of the best CH players, and he's slowly stabilizing as an ATP player. His game is consistent, stable, without a lot of ups and downs. De Greef can't pierce Schwartzman's defense and here I see the Argentinian's clear win who is at least one or two steps above De Greef. Except for dominating somewhat stronger challenger players than the Belgian last year, the Argentinian showed his quality against ATP names this season as well. Arthur also yesterday saved the 0-4 in the third set against Giustin and I think he doesn't stand a chance to take more than five games against Schwartzman who is an ATP name; some don't realize it yet. De Greef is first and foremost a futures players, and the stable and always motivated Schwartzman shouldn't have a lot of problems here. This is his first ATP season, and with this roster he should be satisfied on the CH level, especially here. Details

Hats off to McGee for what he's done here in San Luis, but I think Pella will beat him. That's because Pella's playing really well. He only had problems against the first seed Gabashvili where he lost a set, but he crushed Garza, Krajicek, and even Duckworth who's playing the best tennis of his career. Even his results in the previous tournaments were great. McGee played the last two matches well, but also had luck in the first two rounds. Džumhur played awfully, and Clezar was leading 4-0 in the third set and then lost. McGee definitely didn't play bad, but Pella was just playing better, he showed better tennis. And after all, Pella's a typical clay player who was in Top 100.
He played an awful season last year, and then took a title in Lima. On the other hand, this is McGee's first challenger final, and that's another advantage for Pella. Also, The Irish's got only five clay challenger wins before Mexico, and that's not a coincidence. Pella was beat by McGee in last year's Roland Garros qualifiers, but after that match, the Argentinian took a two-months break to decide whether he'll continue playing tennis or give up because of his depression. He admitted it openly, and then managed to get motivated for the rest of the season. McGee is a decent player, but not a Top 100 material. Pella was there, Pella's got 6-1 in challenger tournaments' finals, and when he's playing well and confident, than he's the favorite no matter how McGee plays. Especially on clay. Details

Monteiro is a player with a relatively bad ranking, but that doesn't mean he's a bad player. He was crushing it in the challenger qualifiers in 2013, and got 12 wins in a span of two-three months. He was getting better, which should have culminated in 2014, if not for an injury. He played last season, but just wasn't up to it physically. Now, in 2015, he showed why he made us all think he's a good player in 2013. He lost in the third round of his first challenger qualifiers, but that was against Hernandez who plays the best tennis of his career. He played ATP qualifiers later, and lost to Ghem who had over 30 challenger wins last year, De Bakker who kills it in tournaments like those, and Maxim Gonzalez, where Monteiro managed to take a set. Those three defeats in a row were a bit expected, but he left a good impression in each one. He almost got to the main lot of the fourth ATP tournament , but got eliminated in the third round in three sets, against Bagnis, and defeated Pella and Quinzi before that. Like I said, the Brazilian is worth a lot more than his current ranking. He's got a typical clay streak in his game, and can make any opponent get tired here. His serves and hits can punish shallow game and passivity. He'll be a Top 200 player this year or the next. He's a better player than his opponent today, younger, with a brighter future, better game, and since this is played on clay, he's a favorite.
O'brien is a futures player, and I don't think he's got a bright future. He never got to Top 500, and only has 2-4 on this level. His ratio of wins and defeats is negative even in the futures, and that says it all. He easily got eliminated in the qualifications of both challengers he played, and got defeated in the first round of the futures, as well. A disastrous beginning of the season, but realistic, considering his abilities. Just this description of O'brien is enough for this bet, but what tops it all is that he's not even a clay player. He's got 0-2 on clay on this level, 2-5 on the futures. Monteiro loves clay, O'brien concrete, and in a state like this, in these conditions, I'd be really surprised if O'brien took a set here. He couldn't against players much weaker than Monteiro. Details

Not much wisdom in this pair. Leo might still be a clay player in everyone's minds, but he played his best tournament this season on concrete. Of course, his serve and aggressiveness would help in any conditions. In his first match here, against Nieminen, he only gave his first break-ball when serving for the match. He lost his serve then, but got the win he deserved through a tie-break in straight sets. Besides that little mental mistake, Mayer showed a lot in his serve, and announced he'll base a lot on that. It's really important that his second serve was convincing, too. Anderson lost a set and a break against Query, and only got four return points till then. Nieminen invented the return for him, and the Finn didn't even get close to the Argentinian's serve in that one game. On the other hand, Anderson's got a much better serve than the Finn, and that's the serve Kevin based his career on, in combination with the forehand. I don't think he'll have many chances on the return here. Both players rely on their serves as their primary weapon, Anderson can vegetate on the return, Mayer be too aggressive and make mistakes, meaning - vegetate as well. I see two intense sets here in the worst case scenario, which means this bet would be a success. Both players should have a really bad day when it comes to serving to make this bet a loss, and I'll easily accept that supposed risk. Details

I simply cannot accept the fact that the handicap is set to 4 games in a best of three sets format. Granted, Novak won their 5 head-to-head matches but he also won 4 of the h2h meetings last season, after Scot's surgery. Murray was known to struggle at Indian Wells before but does that mean anything when he played four great matches, beating all of his opponent with a handicap this year? I don't think Novak can win this easily, especially since it's best of three sets match. I think Murray has extremely good chance of winning a set. This is the kind of a match that is decided by the smallest details and I think the margin set here is at least one game too high, given the power of these opponents. I think three sets will be played and if Murray loses in straight sets narrowly, we are good as well. I don't think that will happen though, I think Murray can even win the match and I'm convinced that even if that doesn't happen, one or two points will decide the winner in the end. Details

I couldn't figure out why Gigounon would be an underdog against Jenkins in Drummondville yesterday, because Jenkins had better luck than sense so far. The Belgian won, of course, and showed mental strength while saving the match serve. All because of his high self-confidence while playing here in Canada. That's how he got the best results of his career, and this is his first semifinal on this level. Smtih was a favorite in two of three matches, and didn't cover the handicap. He went to the third set all three times, and Gigounon won two out of three as an underdog, and also one even match. The level of tennis Gigounon showed here is just as good as Smith's. So, I definitely wouldn't agree that the Australian is such a favorite here, as the bookmakers make him to be. The Belgian will make his life difficult today, and won't go down easily. I thought this through, and decided to bet on an over, and not counter handicap because I think that Gigounon won't win in two sets easily, which would break our over, and make counter handicap pass. It seems like this will be an intense duel that could be solved in the third set. If nothing, two intense sets, which is really likely, make this bet a pass. The Belgian won't let Smith win this one easy. For those who feel like it, I suggest +3.5 on Gigounon, too. Details

Dolgopolov was never anything simple. He was always the man who can complicate the simplest of matches. However, on Indian Wells he won two matches in which he was focused from the first to the last point. Against Dancevic and Girald he didn't lost a serve, and that shows how focused he was. He will need focus against Raonic. The Canadian lost only eight points in 10 service games against Bolelli. In the serve he was untouchable, and I believe Dolgopolov will hardly get any chances today. On the other hand, the Ukrainian's unusual game style last year, at this same place, complicated a lot of situations. When we think about it for a bit, Dog plays a lot of slices, his serve is not bad and he can attack. He's an uncomfortable opponent. Especially for Raonic who doesn't like to move a lot, and the Ukrainian beat him here last year with that same tactic. In that meeting Dog didn't lose a serve and based on that I think that he will hold up his service games nicely today. Besides, he didn't yet lost a serve on Indian Wells. I expect a better Raonic than last year when this was his first tournament after Australian Open. Because of that I expect a little number of breaks. Raonic on the account of his thunderous serve, and Dog on the account of his uncomfortable game style. I was thinking about an over or +3 on Dog, but I decided for an over, careful because of all Dog's problems which could manifest themselves in the third set and thus breaking the low counter-handicap. Although I appreciate him, I know he will hold up against Raonic because he doesn't like his gamestyle, I don't believe he will win. Dog will make a competitive match out of this one and I think this margin will be broken in two sets since both have something to base their game on and they can play a match without a lot of breaks, but I wouldn't be surprised if the match goes into the third set. Details

Tomic is in great rhythm and most importantly, has consistency, which has always been a problem in the past. He lost only to Top 10 players (Nishikori, Federer) and those who are doing their best. He beat Rosol and Vesely in Czech Republic and then Borna Coric. He never once lost his serve against the young Croat and that only proves he's got the confidence. When he has that, he's very dangerous. He want to make it into Top 20 and what better way to improve your chances than beating a Top 10 player. For some reason, the Spaniard is not doing very well in Indian Wells, never has. Tomic is good, mature, while Ferrer wins his matches, but not convincingly. I think we're in for a tough match and that Tomic will be very close. He has good rhythm, confidence and he'll make this a close match. I recommend total games over too. Details

When it comes to challenger results, these two players are not that different. Both are struggling and we can say they are quite close. But, the conditions will be very important today and they suit the Czech much better. He has much more experience in these conditions, he played a futures final, and challenger QFs indoors last season, beat Dukworth, and played only indoors this season. Escobar, on the other hand, is a clay specialist. He played his first indoors tournament last week to beat a fellow clay specialist in three sets and go on t get only 4 games against Smethirst, the first better player of these conditions. Michalika might not be as convincing but I think the win should not be questionable. Both are futures level players but the conditions suit Michalika much better. I though the odds would be at 1.40 max at Marek. He is not worse than Escobar and the conditions only make him favorite. The Shops offer odds at 1.75 and Pinnacle at 1.69. It doesn't seem like much but I think even 1.50 is good with a stake lower by a unit and combined with something else. Details

I know Nadal always needs a bit of time to catch the rhythm, but I think the situation today is perfect. The bounce of balls in Indian Wells is fantastic, and I can't wait to see what it'll look like when he adds his spin. Like I said during Buenos Aires, where I bet on unders and handicaps on Nadal at least three times, the Spaniard learned his lesson in Rio de Janeiro. Je'll do anything to crush Sijsling, I have no doubts about that. The Dutch is in an awful form, plays badly, and allowed Krajinović to get 16 break-balls in the first round. His only weapons are his serve and aggressiveness, and those don't work without self-confidence. He had a bit over 50% first serve points in the first round. He depends on that, and numbers that low are a result of his form, self-confidence, but also conditions here. They're all ideal for Nadal to take advantage of his backhand, make him play rallies, do errors, and get defeated convincingly. I think Nadal will win at least one set with 6-1 or 6-2. I'm convinced. And then, this handicap is easy to cover. Details

Kyrgios didn't play since Australian Open, but did pretty well against Kudla here. He ended the match without losing a serve, and he dominated with his strength, serve and aggressive game. He doesn't need much to get used to the conditions. Dimitrov hasn't been playing his best this season. He failed against Top players, and in the last two tournaments, he lost to Muller and Harrison. He's not convincing, and there's no routine. Kyrgios will be playing his game, take his share of aces and non returned serves, and be aggressive in creating pressure on Dimitrov. That means there's Kyrgios on one side, he's not playing his best, but he did only play one match since AO, but if he did, I'd bet on a counter handicap. But he showed against Kudla that he's good enough to routinely take care of the American. On the other hand is Dimitrov, who hasn't been playing that great, but he's still Dimitrov. I want to say that this definitely won't be a one way match. Kyrgios will definitely have his chances, especially because Dimitrov's game isn't up to par yet. But because of Kyrgios's break, I'll take an over, and not counter handicap, even though I think Kyrgios might fall apart in the third set and crush the counter handicap. But, like I said, I don't think this is a one way match. Like always, this can go in two sets, but I wouldn't be surprised by a marathon and an intense duel till the end. Dimitrov is a favorite and I expect him to win, but Kyrgios won't make it easy by far. Details

Clezar is the kind of a player who either does brilliantly or horribly. There is no middle ground with him. He's been doing great here in Santiago to advance to semifinals quite easily. He didn't lose a single service game against Hernendez and Arguello and then beat a Top 100 player Gonzalez. He is not a typical clay-specialists as he good serve and likes to dictate the game with his forehand shots. He's aggressive and the majority of his defeats are down to him, not caused by opponents great game. That means that when he's doing good like here, it's a good option to bet on him. Gonzalez has better quality but that doens't means he's invincibly. Clezar can stand up to him. Gonzalez could have just as easily lost him match yesterday in straight sets. Clezar played the Challenger Finals last season even though he had less defeats than wins. He is either losing to players of questionable quality or beating Top 100 players. The semifinal here suggests he is in the latter mode. He will sand a chance today, Gonzalez is only consistent, while Clezar had the upper hand in everything else. If he keeps the game from earlier this week up, I think he stand a chance of winning. I don't think Gonzalez will win this easily, especially not against Clezar when is doing this well. Details

Over time I learned not to be too quick in saying I don't understand why a player is favored. However, today I really see no reason for Dodig to be favored against Sousa. First of all, Dodig has been playing singles poorly since Zagreb. I'll disregard his doubles title with Melo in Acapulco since he lost three singles matches in a row, with just two break points in total. Dodig clearly lacks confidence. Secondly, if that's true, Sousa is the worst possible match-up for him. He works a lot, makes few errors, will force long rallies and numb down the game. He often gets the worst out of his opponents, and with the way Dodig is playing lately, that won't be a tough job. Dodig is a step from dropping out of the Top 100 and playing poorly, while beating Sousa requires more, as he forces you to earn your victory, something Dodig is currently not very comfortable with. Adding to that is the fact the only previous match of these players was easily won by the Portuguese, without losing a serve. Sousa has been winning what he was supposed to win all season long, while Dodig is doing very poorly right now, with what little rhythm he got earlier this season gone now. Impression, form, match-up ... everything favors Sousa right now. Details

Novikov is the player I got to know very well at challenger level. He is still underappreciated even though he's a great player. Of course, he is prone to slips, which is keeping him out of top 200 but there's no doubt about him finishing it in this season. More importantly, he does his best against the better players. He beat Harrison, won a set against Estrella at the last tournament. He played a great match against Donaldson in Maui too and beat the favorite Bedene here in the first round. He could have won the first set but lost it in the end. He should have settled things in the second one before the tie-break as he had break-point opportunities in a couple of games and a set point before the tie-break. Novikov left a very good impression on me to eventually win the match even though Bedene had the perfect chance to punish him for all the missed opportunities. Even though this surface suits clay-specialists more than any other hard court, that is not the reason for this bet. Gimeno-Traver was close to losing the first set to Jung. Jason served for the set and he is not set to meet the better-quality Novikov who just got a boost of confidence. Dennis is much more dangerous than Jung and Gimeno proved he's not invincible. Honestly, I think the Spaniard won't win this easily. He could end up under pressure and I wouldn't be surprised if Novikov even wins. It would be less surprising than an easy win for Gimeno. Details

Mayer was under a lot of pressure against Belllucci. Thomaz is realistically speaking a much better player than Souza, and Leo played the second match of the day, so they were both under pressure because the Brazilians lead 0-1. Mayer reacted great, and didn't give a break-ball in two out of three won sets. He used his good serve and aggressive game, and earned the win. I think those will be the key against Souza. Berlocq controlled everything, 2-1 in sets, 3-1 in the fourth, and two tied break-balls, and then only two more games till the end of the match. That doesn't happen often to him, but confirm how hard he plays for the DC team. Mayer still slept an hour before the match, he's relaxed, confident, and showed it. Berlocq was passive and played shallow when he had to crush Souza, so the Brazilian came back and played the tennis that suits him best. Mayer can't do that, actually, the Argentinian will defeat him with "his" game. Souza is aggressive and has a good serve, Mayer has an even better serve, and his aggressiveness is more consistent. Everything Souza does, Mayer does better, so there's a reason he's in top 30. The pressure is on Mayer, but it was on Friday, because if he had lost that one, it would have been the end of it for the Argentinians, like today, and he still reacted in a great way. Mayer is a better player, more consistent, and I think he'll easily win this. I think he won't even lose a set. Mostly because he'll force Souza to play defensively and hit out of balance, which Souza hates. Berlocq doesn't have that tennis in him, and he should have won, but he panicked and lost. Mayer will make Souza show the bad tennis he usually manages to hide because he controls the rallies, and that bad tennis includes defensive, playing the hits while running, and out of balance. I personally don't think any of Souza's hits are better than Mayer's. I don't think he has a mental advantage either, because that's Souza's weakness. Details

The fact that Nadal and Monaco are good friends seems to be the minus for Monaco. They know each other very well, and every time they played, Nadal covered this handicap. He only let Monaco get two games in the first match, four in the second. They played eight sets in the last three matches, and Monaco only had seven games total. That means less than a game per set, believe it or not. In the last five sets, Monaco lost three without winning a single game. That can't be coincidence, but it also shows that Nadal doesn't give anyone a free pass, even if they're his best friends. Add to all this that this title means a lot to Nadal. It's not just a little tournament in his eyes. It's where he can start making up and dominate clay once again. That will end at Roland Garros where he wants to arrive with the best ratio possible, and with as many titles as he can, to boost his self-confidence. Last week, he lead 6-1 and 2-1 against Fognini and lost. He said right away that that isn't something he wants to live through again. To lead so convincingly and lose in the end. So he said his goal this week is to play the best he can from the first to the last point. That's why I don't think he'll go easy on Monaco, regardless of their friendship. Everything Monaco does, Nadal does better, and they also know each other very well, so that's where this convincing H2H comes from, against the Argentinian. I believe that will go on. Monaco also played two tough matches in three sets in the lat two days, and the first seed is definitely feeling more rested. I think Nadal will definitely win one set with 6-2 or 6-1. Details

Everything I wrote about Nadal's first match against Arguello goes for this match with Delbonis. Rafa is now even more dangerous after playing a match and he takes some time to get to the optimal "working temperature". Though this is a tougher opponent, we have more games too. Everything will once again depend on Nadal and the way he plays this. A player of his caliber cannot afford another fumble like the one in Rio, nor can he hold a 6-1 lead and a break and lose. He pointed out he wants no more ups and downs, instead going full throttle throughout the game. He did that with 6-0 in the second set against Arguello. Delbonis will have a tough task, and everything else he did so far in Buenos Aires is irrelevant. He will now face Rafa, who is all stoked up to wash out the bitter aftertaste of Rio. In my opinion, the Spaniard will stroll to the title here. Honestly, Delbonis is dangerous, but this will go through even with a smooth and not too impressive victory by Nadal in two sets, with a break in each set. We could call that a routine victory and not a blowout. I like playing against Nadal when his pride is injured, which is exactly his situation here, and I believe he will have a show of force on his way to the title. Details