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Both stats and players suggest this is a good choice. We'll start with the stats. Ramos and Almagro have played three head-to-head matches so far and Almagro won all three. Out of the seven sets, three ended in a tie-break, which cannot be a coincidence. When it comes to players, Almagro is extremely aggressive against opponent's service, he is not patient and that results in mistakes. Ramos is a leftie with a very tricky serve. Almagro is the better player with a more diverse serving but Ramos' serves are trickier, which won't agree with this opponent. On top of that, Nico is not in his best rhythm and will need more time to get back at his best level after the injury. I think Ramos can make this a close match. If they stick to tradition and play a tie-break like all of the three head-to-head matches, this bet will be good even in straight sets, which I would not be surprised with. Details

Rafa is wounded beast, and in my opinion, that is what makes him most dangerous. I don't like talking about motivation because they all play for money, points, and prestige but Nadal wants to make amends after the bad match in Rio. He pride is hurt and he is one of those players who destroy the opponents early in the tournament to save energy for later. I believe he'll be looking to crush the opponent for more than one reason today. The first one is the failure in Rio, the second one the fact he realized that he's getting tired faster, which means he'll want to finish this as soon as possible. And finally, he said he wants to play well from start to finish. The difference in quality is huge and Arguello is talking about a hope for a win, but that's probably more just to deal with anxiety ahead of this match. He is 0-10 ATP level so far and that's because of nervousness. He is to play Nadal now and this is the kind of pick that depends on one person only, on the one we're betting one. In that case, this is a great choice. Nadal will do anything to restore confidence and that's enough for me to play the 17.5 games under. Details

Although I'm aware that a lot has changed since Andreozzi's and Cuevas's last head-to-head, I can't help but point out what a good tennis player Anderozzi is. He's the guy who will be fighting for the Top 100 just to remain on clay. He had an weird choice of tournaments, he didn't play on clay, but he beat qualifier Molteni with only four lost games and without a lost serve. He was the first choice for a wild card in Buenos Aires. That speaks volumes of how respected he is However, Andreozzis is a good player, a player who has weapons in his game and who's not a typical clay-lover. Cuevas, on the other hand, played five times three sets on clay this season. He has a relaxed attitude and doesn't crush his opponents. I think this margin is quite low considering Andreozzi's possibilities, who, I think, still won't be able to beat Cuevas, and I wouldn't be surprised if he would take a set from him or take one set into a tie-break. To translate, I would hardly put Cuevas on my bet with these quotas when I know what kind of a player Andreozzi is. I don't see Cuevas being crushed today. Details

I don't think Berloq is the favorite here, on the contrary, I think his younger compatriot is the favorite here. I saw Schwartzman's good performances in Rio and Sao Paulo and I saw that the level of his game is much higher than Carlos' and also, this is a bad matchup for Carlos. What ever he does on the court, Schwartzman will have a response to. He can run, he doesn't make mistakes, and he's stable both on forehand and backhand. They are good friends, know each other very well and I trust Schwartzman more. This is the season in which he will make a step forward at ATP level. He did much better so far in my opinion. He had a match point against Delbonis last week and ended up retiring from that match because of heat, not an injury. Berloq didn't convert a single break point against Carreno-Busta. As I said already, I think Schwartzman is the favorite. He will become an ATP player soon, he's at his top level, while his opponents remains bleak and unconvincing. We have two games extra in this match. Details

Ferrer improved his game lately. He had a set and a break against Monaco and then got into a crisis. Even though he lost a set, but won by five games in the end. We have the same handicap today and yesterday and that cannot be. Monaco is getting better even though the results might not have suggested it. His game this and last week was Top 30. He is one of the five players with most ATP wins on clay. He fired 30 winners against Ferrer yesterday and still lost convincingly. Maurer is tough, but not as patient. Ferrer is consistent and better at each segment but service. Ferrer will destroy him with rhythm, consistency, and forcing Maurer into a few extra moves. A close first set doesn't mean a crisis for Ferrer while the Austrian often loses focus and falls apart. I think he won't stand too much chance today and this matcup doesn't suit him. He won only seven games in their two matches so far (5 sets). Details

I was going to pick Novikov to take a set against Estrella, but changed my mind since I said the Dominican might rise to a higher level, which the American cannot. However, Estrella lost a set for the third time here in Mexico. He proved to be unimpressive once again, struggling again, and it's obvious he is not at his usual level here in Morelos. His opponents don't get heaps of games in each match, but the Austrian has not lost a single set here. I'ts clear Morelos suits him very well, he took the title here last year, against the very Estrella he's facing now, whom he allowed five games. In my opinion Estrella is not favored here at all. Melzer beat much more dangerous opponents easily, and Esterlla struggled with worse. One or two rounds can be tolerated, but all three? That's not a bad day, that's a bad week, and he was just lucky he did not run into a serious opponent up to now. To those feeling brave I can recommend playing on the Austrian winning. I'm happy with a two game safety. Details

Monaco only confirmed what I though in the first round against Nieminen. He has a top 30 game on clay at this point but he's still not using his head much. The pressure is killing him and that gets very obvious when he needs to bring the match to its finish, like against De Bakker and Nieminen when he had 6-1 and 5-1 and Nieminien managed to force a tie-break. The situation for this bet s much better now. He's the underdog and isn't under pressure. His game at the moment will give him a chance to get a set against Ferrer. I expect that and if it happens, this bet has a great chance of being successful. Also, Ferrer is doing really really badly. He said that he's feeling bad after the win over the De Bakker and that he doesn't know what it is. He's been complaining about problems for two matches now and the ailing Dutchman managed to take over the control in the first set of their match. Monaco's shots are deep, tough, and I'm happy he's the underdog here because he struggles when supposed to finish the match. He doesn't have to win today. This can be successful even in case of his convincing defeat. But I don't think that will happen. Ferrer doesn't have what it takes for it now. Monaco is doing great and is ready for a close match now. Not even Monaco's win would be a huge surprise. Ferrer is bad and not convincing but he has not yet met with a player as good as Monaco. Details

I don't know where Haddad's been all this time, but the girl is a tank. I pick against her in the first round, hooked by the results between her and Irigoyen. I could see the pick was a bust after the first three games. Then I said I'll leave her alone, but I watched the match against Herzog just to see if her game was a fluke. However, I saw more of the same. Serves over 190kmph, clean and strong hits. Being lefthanded, she reminds me of Kvitova. Regardless of me liking Kvitova, if there is a way to pull Errani into a close match its through aggression, which is something Haddad has in spades. The girl allowed just two break points in two matches, firing off serves that Sela, Cipolla and the likes would give a kidney for. Errani struggled yesterday when Dominguez-Lino got fed up and started slugging it. The Spaniard got three break points for a tie-break. Haddad said she will enter this match the same she did the previous ones, full on aggression mode. The Brazilian gets a lot of free points on her serve, and Errani loses her serve really easily. I know Hercog and Irigoyen are below Errani's level, but Haddad did not just beat them, she dissolved them to basic elements. With such a game I see no way for her not to cover this over. I believe we have an ideal situation here, an aggressive player able to dominate on her serve, and Errani who gives away a lot on her serve and from whom Haddad has nothing to fear on the return. If she goes deep into the court and aggressively returns as she did the past two days, Errani will be in trouble. There are many ways for Haddad to get games against Errani. Due to the great respect I have for Errani I'm going with just 5/10. Details

Monaco's results since he got back to playing on clay are a bit misleading. He lost to De Bakker but had a set, a break, and a chance for double break. He lost that match in the end but that was a Top 30 performance on both sides of the net. Giraldo retired yesterday after playing his top game in the first set and lost it anyway. Monaco is happy to be back on clay surface and he recorded a win, which means a lot. Nieminen struggles with heat and humidity, as his match with Cecchinat only went to prove. He should not be here. The Italian had 5-2, served for the match, had two match points and then made a few inexplicable mistakes. Only seeing that was bad. How will Nieminen respond to Monaco's toughness? I don't know. How will he defend? I don't know. I I certainly don't know how he plans to keep up with Monaco's pace. There's also the heat and humidity that bother him. I think this will be an easy win for Monaco. He did much better on clay than his results suggest while Nieminen only just got to South America. Only luck saw him get through to the next round and not even that will help today. I'll go with the handicap, but the win at Argentine is 8/10 in my opinion. Details

Not counting the Fed Cup in which she recorded one win, Maia played three ITF tournaments to record three defeats. The one to Pfizenmaier is understandable but the second one was to a player outside the Top 200 and the third one last week to a player outside the Top 400. While Pfizenmaire clearly struggles with form and rhythm, Irigoyen is full of confidence from her Fec Cup weekend against the States. She got 5 games to each of the sisters and even though they're not top level, she said that meant a lot. She reached semifinals in the next tournament, and won her qualifying matches here, one as an underdog. Maia lost the first round match at the tournament where her opponents went through to SFs. The Argentine played six matches in the last 2 weeks to recorded 5 wins, Maia is 0-3 this season and has no rhythm. On top of that, Irigoyen won both h2h matches convincingly. She let the Brazilian won a total of nine games in four sets. Form, quality, rhythm, h2h - Irigoyen is better at everything at the moment. I don't think this should be above 1.40 at Irigoyen. Details

A thought that's been running around my head this whole tournament is that only Elias can take a set from Džumhur here. The Portuguese got eliminated yesterday, and Olivo got a chance for the title. Every thing important for the bet is on Damir's side here. First, he's a better player. One or two tournaments more like this, and he's in the Top 100. Second, he left a monstrous impression here. He ended two matches in less than an hour, played two just a little bit over an hour. Three opponents only took four sets, Jarry a bit more. Last year, Damir had 3/3 in challenger finals. Olivo's got 0-2 in his career. Džumhur spent a bit over four hours on the courts these days, Olivo more than ten and a half, which is a huge difference. He was saving match-balls in two matches, and lost the first set in each, and in the two where he didn't lose a set and a break, he got his first breaks only in the 11th game of the second set. I think he can't slip through the eye of the needle anymore. Džumhur is playing excellent, stands out every way you look at it. He crushed all his opponents so far, covered this handicap in every match, and Olivo's been struggling this whole tournament, only luck helped him pass this far. Even luck can't help him today. He'll lose this match, and I think Džumhur's win is a 7/10 today. Those who don't want to risk can bet on the handicap. I'll bet on him, I've been doing it this whole week, and he didn't disappoint me. Not one thing that's important for betting is on Olivo's side. Even in a completely disastrous scenario where Damir will lose a set, the handicap is low enough to be covered in three sets. The value with these odds is available even for a margin set a handicap higher than this. Details

I bet on Džumhur in the first round, and relied on safe bets in the second, and the quarterfinal. He justified my trust and showed the most of all four quarterfinal players. When he defeated Jarry yesterday, and I saw that Garin won thanks to Melzer's forfeit, I said to myself, if they set -3.5 on Džumhur, I'll take it. Even a regular Džumhur's win is paid well here. Some bookmakers even make him an outsider, which is ludicrous. Now for the game. Džumhur is a better player than Garin, more stable and consistent. He tamed a much more dangerous Jarry yesterday. Garin is offensively weaker than Jarry, and in rallies, he can't take advantage over Džumhur. While Damir got to the semifinal easily, Garin used the circumstances. Zeballos' confidence issues (4 missed match-balls), and Melzer's physical issues (fever). Džumuhr will be fighting for a Top 100 position this year, I've said it a few times already, he's doing it already. He had 3/3 in challenger finals last year, and Garin doesn't have that quality. Damir is a better player who left a much better impression. No need to overthink this. I expected 1.50 on Džumhur max. Details

If I was with the organization of either Sao Paolo or Rio de Janeiro tournaments I would definitely give De Paula a wild card for one of them. He was very close to getting back to Top 200, but the injury from 2013 stopped him. He had to go back to futures level to record 81 win in one season in all competitions. He finished the clay season with two wins at futures level. His record is 1-4 this season and you might wonder why I will bet on him taking a set. The answer is what he did against Darcis, Falla, and Jarry this season. Fabiano has the quality and there's another thing about this bet that will force me into going with it. Bagnis retired from his match with Cuevas last week after being 1-5 down in the first set. He struggled with a shoulder injury but this isn't about his injury, it's about De Paula's game. He is playing home, he got a set against Darcis, Jarry, and Falla, players at Bagnis' level. Some are better and some are a bit worse but I think this has value. Details

De Bakker is one of those players who either play well and look like they're Top 50 or play horribly and look like a mediocre challenger level player. He is one of the most talented players and does good when on the rhythm. I think the situation here is ideal for him here. Clay surface and conditions faster than one normal clay. He got through to the main draw easily while losing only one service game and that is the main proof that the conditions suit him - he has very good service and aggressive game. He's very dangerous when he manages to get through to main draw and finds rhythm. Both last and this year prove that. He's done it in Doha to go on and win a set against Ferrer who won the tournament. Theimo was Top 50 once, he has the game for Top but don't have consistency and calmness. He is capable of playing one tournament as a Top 50 player, especially when getting into the main draw through qualifying matches. Monaco has some back problems and some confidence problems after Australia. He was outside of Top 100 at one point last season. He said he's frustrated after the defeat to Bolleli because he's not completely fit and that he was losing motivation. This will be his first match on this surface this year, it's hard to tell if he 100 percent ready and the opponent is very good and much more aggressive. De Bakker can set his pace and has done qualifying matches here perfectly. Monaco is not the favorite in my opinion. Details

Ram left a much better impression here. He played 10 sets, lost his serve only twice. Fast conditions suit him, and he showed it with his serve games, especially his first. He lost a set to Rublev and Gabashvili, but then didn't lose his serve the next two against both, not leaving a break-ball for Gabashvili. He was supposed to win the first set against the second seed, too, if he was focused. His line game was impressive, he even didn't run towards the net as he's wont to do. He defeated Gabashvili with his own game. Smyczek was saving three match-balls against McGee, played three sets against Harrison, and saved four set-balls in the first set against Trungelliti last night, and won a tie-break after which the Argentinian fell apart. Smyczek's been "hanging" this whole tournament, and Ram showed authoritative serve. Trungelliti had 1/10 break balls, and if he plays similar to what he's been playing this entire week, Smyczek will have problems with Ram who kept his serve the best here. Fast conditions suit him, and he's always dangerous on return because he's aggressive. I think Ram has a chance to win, because of the indoors court that lets him show his best (serve, aggressiveness), and makes Smyczek's moves minimal or even neutralized (good movement, defensive). Smyczek's got 3-0 against Ram in his career, but two matches went to three sets, one ended up 7-5 7-6. So, the statistics are only seemingly on Smyczek's side here. Besides, no matches of the three were played in conditions this fast. Details

When thinking about the odds that could be set for this match, I could never have imagined Lorenzi would end up being such a heavy favorite and there are a few reasons for it. First of all, Falla does well in these conditions. He would be happy just when knowing that he is to play at this altitude. Even when he wasn't a Top 100 player he would be the favorite both in Bogota ATP tournament and challengers against many Top 50 players. Secondly, Lorenzi's game is horrible, which is particularity significant now that he switched to clay. He barely managed to beat Lama in Bucaramanga and I thought that he might have just had a bad day. But, he went on to play Melzer the next round and lose and then came to Quito to meet a player who never won a set in their head-to-head matches and instead of making amends and restoring confidence by winning easily, he barely managed to win, after having to save a match point. Lama, Melzer, and Menendez cannot be compared to Falla in these conditions. Falla is better than all three. I think this is a close match with 50-50 chance and the Colombian maybe having the upper hand because of the conditions and the way he played 2nd and 3rd set against Souza, who I think is much more dangerous in these conditions. Also, the only h2h match Falla won was a straight sets 7-6 6-1 win. That happened in Bucamaranga that is also known for high altitude and tough conditions. Details

I watches Ram and Andreozzi's matches yesterday and the surface in Dallas appeared to be very fast, which makes the over at this match a very, very good choice. Struvay prefers clay, but that didn't stop him from playing 40 matches on hard court last season. He reached three futures finals, claimed two titles, and tied wins at challenger level. Those are some very respectable results for a clay-specialist. The Colombian is very far from being a typical clay-specialist, though. He's got strong serves, powerful shots, and net-game. I think he's very underrated today. Indoors is not the same thing as hard court outdoors and when it comes to running and moving, outdoors hard court is much more important. Struvay is good at it, unlike other players who prefer clay. He didn't play indoors often, but when he did and when he lost, it would be with at least one tie-break. He's more mature and better than ever, with his service and attacking style set to get him a lot of easy points today. Smith isn't indoors often, but all of his hard court matches this season had a lot of tie-breaks. Honestly, I don't think Smith is such a heavy favorite against someone with such good serves. Especially not with someone who had good futures result on hard court last season. I think this will be a close match with a lot off breaks and I've decided for this option because I think we'll see two close sets. Even in case of a loss, Struvay won't go down easy. He would lose by covering this handicap in two close sets. His service is good, but his returns bad. Details

The same story from last week applies. How much has changed in Sweeting's game since? Not much. The American is completely out of shape. He has the shots, but that doesn't help him much when he's moving like an amateur player. He's always late and that results in unforced errors. 1725th player in the ATP table left him with only 5 games 3 weeks ago, Meister with only 3 last week. The injury set him back years and he is not even the shadow of his former self. Andreaozzi prefers clay, but I have a few aces up my sleeve. First and foremost, Sweeting will always prefer a hitter who will engage in rallies with him that someone who can shoot for corners and who can keep the ball in the game. I repeat, moving is Sweeting's weakest point and Andreozzi's clay-oriented style will force him into running. Secondly, Andreozzi played Manta final and Sao Paulo QFs last year on hardcourt and managed to get a set against Bedene in AO qualifying match. Sweeting is out of shape and doesn't run. Andreozzi should take advantage of it. The American ended up with only a handful of sets after the first two matches of the year and I don't see what could have changed over the past week. Details

These are the first finals for both of them, but Donaldson played far better on his way here. I think he's the best American young player who slowly, but continually made progress, and he is where he is now. He doesn't mind rallies, he builds points, he doesn't force, but has strong hits when needed. He's a good player already, and with so much potential to grow. Add some muscles, and considering he doesn't really have a weak spot - there's a certain percentage in all the hits that he can make better. All in all, he's a full package. True, he almost missed 7-5 4-0 and a match-serve, and a 3-0 in the tie-break. However, that also shows mental strength, because who could take a set against a favored player, second seed, title defender who came back after a double break behind, and save a match-serve? Not many would take a tie-break, but Donaldson did. He passed the test once again, and won a match in two sets. Meister's hits aren't strong like Klahn's, his serve isn't as uncomfortable as Klahn's, and neither is his kick. Donaldson will dictate the rhythm of the rallies because Nicolas doesn't try to use strength, but keep the ball in the court, and Donaldson's definitely got an advantage there. Also, Jared is stronger and firmer with his hits, and his serve is definitely better. True, he didn't show that yesterday, but he had 50% first serve points, and that's why he lost them. But, when he'd go for it, he'd win most of the points. A bad serve day like yesterday can happen again, but if it does, he still has an advantage in the rallies. He covered this handicap against Meister last year in the qualifiers. Meister didn't get better since, while Donaldson did, and much so. Details

Donaldson is in many ways different from other young American players. He is much better when it comes to technical skills but has the physical strength too and with time can get his shots even stronger. His progress was slow, but stable. Donaldson displayed great tennis in Maui, not having dropped a single set on the road to semifinals. He passes the test against Buchanan mentally even though Buchanan beat him easily last season and went on to crush Novikov last night. That win would have been even more convincing since if he had used the break points better. But, that doesn't change the fact he's a good server (especially first service). He's not pushing it but rather builds his points, and moves great given his height. His mental strength is that one of a much older player. He's progressing and got a wildcard for the Memphis ATP. I don't think he's disappoint there. Klahn advanced to semifinals without dropping a single set too but this is not a bet against him, it's a bet for Donaldson. Ehrat had the first break point at 6-5 after his 30-00 lead. Later in the second set, he had 2-4 lead and was not without a chance. I'm trying to say that Klahn isn't invincible. Given Donaldson's level, constant progress, and style, I think he has the chance for a win. That makes the counterhandicap a good option. I'm sure he'll get a set but the odds at that are low, which I why I decided to go with this counterhandicap that will almost certainly be successful if Jared gets that set. If you are up for it, you have it with SBO. Details