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I watched Rola last week as he faced Sandgren in Knoxvill because I bet against him. He lost in the end in straight sets, despite possibly deserving to win. He beat Dancevic yesterday as the underdog and I think time has come to on his match again. First and foremost, Rola is doing well in Champaign, just like in Knoxville. But, his results correspond to the good games here. Another thing is, Rola is motivated and isn't holding back for the Challengers finals in Brazil next week. His opponent is another reason for me to bet on this. Mannarinaro is clearly not at his last week's level, he's tired, doesn't move as well and makes far more mistakes. He lost sets to Kurtvski and Ram, neither of which are as good as Rola. He beat Giron yesterday, but this is the first pro season for the American, who used to play at university level only last season. Mannarino reached Top 50, which was his goal. A new win would see him reach his best ranking ever and motivation will be running high. But, Rola is dangerous and the opponent not as good as he was last season. I don't think the win will be convincing because Rola has a good game. I decided for this tip in the end because they meet indoors and I expect a typical indoors match, which gives this handicap value since even a defeat in two close set would be enough to cover it. All of Rola's sets here have been like that. Details

Even if we leave behind the fact that Bagins are fighting for the Top 100, and there's no doubt that he will bite hard here, I'd put him in the role of the good favorite here. The Argentinian lost all of the latest matches from good players or the ones who are in shape. During the season he showed a couple of times that he still has the quality (the win against Benneteau, main roster of the USO, finale of a strong challenger in Caltanissetta), and the Argentinian is playing more or less on one level during the whole season and has 24 wins on this level. Munoz at some times seams like a player who doesn't care about anything. In two challengers he fell out in the qualifications, on six of them in the first rounds. Out of 18 tournaments on this level, only six of them were victorious. He plays with a lot of oscillations, and he's playing against a more consistent player who, by the way, beat him in all three mutual meetings. Last year Bagins gave him only two games. When I was writing the preview, I expected 1.55 odds. Details

These odds on this ratio of strength doesn't look good. Škugor is a talented guy who deserves a better ranking, but he didn't deserve to be a favorite today at all. Despite his strength and "weapons", he's not an indoors type of a player, but a clay player. In 15 times he played the qualifiers in these conditions, and passed only twice. Baumann had 35 indoors matches this season, and likes these conditions just as much as clay. The conditions are on the German's side. He passed the qualifiers on the last challenger in Moritz, and then took a set from Copil in Geneve. He also left a better impression here in Brescia compared to Škugor. Škugor barely defeated a national player in a tie-break of the third set, while Baumann showed how to play indoors. He defeated Brkić, the first seed of the tournament. Brkić is similar to Škugor, only in a better form. What's important, even though it went to three sets, Baumann didn't offer one break. He constantly threatened on return and got 13 break balls. In the second set, the one he lost, he had seven break balls in three different serve games. The German should have won that more easily. If I were making odds, I'd switch them around for this. Baumann plays better indoors, he outplayed the first seed, didn't even offer a break ball, while Škugor is a clay player who struggled against another clay player in the first round, when he was a favorite. It's simple - nothing works in Škugor's favor here, so I don't see why he's the favorite. Details

The odds suggest that Uzhylovsky is not a great favorite here but I think he is. There are more reasons for it, first and foremost, he's better at futures level, which is very important. This might be a challenger match, but both players are futures-level players. Uzhylovsky is on a positive 76-58 record, while Frigerio remains 36-58. Their records speaks volumes but aren't my main reason to choose this bet. Their performances this season, however, are. Frigerio has been losing even futures qualifying matches (10-20 at futures level this season). As for his ranking, he didn't only improve but instead dropped some positions in the table. On the other hand, Vladimir is now 300 positions up, has 26 futures wins and two finals, while Frigerio recorded back-to-back wins at futures level only once this season. Uzhylovsky does his best on hard court and has 17-9 at futures this season, while Lorezno won only one out of his 4 matches. He is a clay specialist who managed to record only one futures win this season (played 5 tournaments). He has no momentum and everything suggest the Ukrainian to be a better player. I think he deserves more respect and more faith than the odds suggests. Details

I'm trying to figure out the reason for this big of a quota on McGee, but I can't, and I'm really trying. First, Arevalo got his ticked punched by Sandgren in the qualifiers and got into the main draw as a lucky loser after Williams signed out. Second, he only played four indoors matches in his career. McGee on the other had has a career high ranking, with 18 challenger wins this year, more than his past two years combined. He is also a challenger player, while Arevalo mixes challengers and futures. Adding to that is the Irishman's more than 100 indoors matches in his career, and things are even less clear. With the disproportion of levels, and a clash of a player in lifetime form and ranking against a player out of Top 300, not to mention 100 vs 4 indoors matches, all points towards McGee winning. Details

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When Baghdatis beat Albot, the odds for him against Przysiezny were set to 1.45-1.50 in my mind. These now are set the same as the ones against Albot, and I don't see why the Pollack deserves such mistrust. He did not lose his serve in the last two matches, he beat two top 100 players here, and allowed a single break point in the entire match against Bolelli yesterday. Baghdatis is a favorite, granted, but Przysiezny is a tough nut to crack, as a player. He has a great rhythm going on indoors, and continued with it in Geneva. The Pollack can always count on his first serve, but the very important thing is that he played well on the second as well, with 56%, 57%, and 57% of points won on second serve in his last three matches, which is why he is in the final as he can count on getting points even when his first serve is failing. This makes him very dangerous and choosing between a counter-handicap and games overall I chose games. I'll say it again, Baghdatis is closer to winning, but Przysiezny is not a pushover. He can hold his serve, he played four tie-breaks in Geneva and went over this margin in 3 of this 4 matches, which means it doesn't matter who his opponent is, he's just that kind of a player. He beat the margin against Marti, but also against Bolelli. Details

Przysiezny gathered momentum with the end of the season, and it all started going better once he got back indoors. He won an ATP match in Metz after getting through the qualifications, and then another in Kuala Lumpur. Considering his performance in the rest of the season, he's been doing great for the past month and a half and played well in Geneva too. He struggled a bit against a local player in the first set, but won a routine victory in the end. Yesterday he held 6-1 5-1 against Ito, but then complicated matters a bit. However, he left a positive impression in the first two rounds, though that's not the only reason for this pick. The main one is the Pollack's game, as he does better indoors than Hanescu, who is above all a clay player who did not put together two victories indoors this season. He finally did it here, but with a rather dubious impression. He won 22 less points on return than Fucsovics in the first round and was the underdog throughout the match. Although he made a better impression against Krajnović, this cannot erase the fact that he had to play three sets and lost one against him too, winning the match through two tie-breaks. Przysiezny beat the Romanian in the only previous duel they played last year, indoors, and everything seems to be favoring him right now, since he obviously seems to be going up as the season goes on, while the Romanian doesn't. Details

The conditions in Geneva suit Dustov more. He had three consecutive indoor semifinals at challenger level early this season. Dzumhur, on the other hand, does not like the fast conditions. Dustov's shots are more powerful and his game indoors better on the whole than the opponents. Dzumhur is on a 2-3 record indoors this year, with only two challenger level wins. He's been losing to players worse than Dustov in these conditions, last time to a player outside the Top 400. He struggled the round before too. While playing the Davis Cup matches for Bosnia, he would lose indoors or struggled with players he usually beats on other surfaces. A good indoors players with nine wins in these conditions faces a player well below his level. I think Farrukh is a heavy favorite. Details

I wanted to bet on Maxim Gonzalez yesterday, but the handicap was too high. I was still convinced in his win so I went for the sure bet. However, the Argentinian proved what I already knew in that match, he's the king of this level. He only had problems in the first match against Mina, not surprising because that was his first clay match after three months. From then to the finals, he didn't have any problems. He only gave one break-ball to Collarini, didn't lose serve at all against Trungelliti, and gave only one break-ball to Cachin yesterday. Alejandro is a bit more convincing than the last week, but the impression is on the Argentinian's side. Besides, Maximo has 3/3 in challenger finals this year, which isn't an accident. He's very experienced in situations like these, and this is the level where he created his name. He's coming back to the routine, and one thing that could be crucial is freshness. This is Maximo's first tournament after Shanghai, Alejandro's been playing week after week, and spent almost three hours on the court in the semifinal, while Maximo spent only a bit over an hour. I think Maximo is a big favorite for the title here. These are "his" tournaments, perfect for him and every time he passed the challenger quarterfinal, he took the title in the end. All three times this year. Details

Jarry was defeated badly to Souza last week. He was making a lot of mistakes and instead of backing down kept on pushing. That resulted in a disaster, but one defeat cannot wipe out everything good he did this season. His ranking improved by 600 positions, and his tennis already proved him to be challenger material. I think he's going to get in the Top 200 this season already, with the way he put up a fight against the top challenger-level player as my reasons. Trungelliti, on the other hand, is not longer in the Top 300 after a truly horrible season. His record at the final South American series is 2-4 and he's about to face a player who's never been doing beter. Jarry is ranked better, he's done well in the last few challengers and I think he deserves a lot more credit than being given here. Details

It's a shame Bagnis had a crisis after the great performances at challengers before and during summer, as he was ripe to get into the Top 100 back then. However, I saw both his matches here in San Juan and I believe he is slowly getting back his routine, good performances. He is definitely not a player who deserves to be eliminated in the first or second round of challengers and I believe the two great matches he played so far in San Juan lifted his confidence. Although ranked under Gonzalez, he is stronger than the Colombian, who is primarily a worker, despite his physical abilities. He also did not repeat the challenger success of the last season this year, having lost his rhythm playing ATP tournaments, and is losing to players he beat last year. My impression is that Bagnis is a definite favorite here, as the Colombian beat Pella in two sets by playing great on break points while the match could have gone the other way too, and then even lost a set against Samper Montana. Bagnis is not behind Gonzalez in terms of quality, I'd even say he is more talented and better. Siding all of that next to the impressions from this tournament, I believe Bagnis is a favorite here. Details

I should point out right away that I have great respect for Kubler's achievement, but I think the bookmakers largely underestimated the performance Andreozzi has been having in South America, and taken way too seriously the easy win Kubler scored against Clezar. The Australian saved all six of his break points in the first serve, and 0-40 while serving for the set. In the second he was a break behind, saved a break point and won in two sets, while things could have been very different. He did win the Sibiu challenger, but that does not equal the challenger continuity Andreozzi's been having this past month with three semifinals from three challengers, losing twice to Schwartzman and once to Estrella, the elite of this level. He took a set from both and was not far from victory. He is in great shape and seems to be doing well at San Juan as he won the title here last year. Regardless of the Sibiu title, the rhythm and form still favor the Argentinian although it may not seem so at first glance. He has been in the final stages of three tournaments in a row for a reason, and is in my opinion more of a favorite and closer to wining today. Details

I think these odds were set on account of Toricki's win over Estrella. He limited the South American to only three games, but when has Estrella even done well indoors? He is a clay-specialists, expected to lose to players like Troicki, who couldn't wait to finally get indoors. If this was the second round match, I would not go for it, but Rosol did a great first round match with Lack, not allowing him a single break-point opportunity. Rosol ended his losing streak to finally bring down the mental barrier that was stopping him for a long time. I can't forget about Troicki's three-set qualifying matches. I think this will be a very tough and close match, with Rosol bursting with confidence after beating Lack. I think both of them have a 50% of chance of winning this. Details

Stakhovsky took 200 points from his last two challengers, with nine wins and a title, but I think that hinders him more than helps right now. First he played indoors in Europe, then went to hardcourt concrete at Tashkent, and now returns to indoors. Lots of traveling, lots of adjusting, while Mecir obviously enjoys staying in Vienna. The Slovak got through the qualifiers last year as well, won his first and only ATP victory against Andujar and then gave Tommy Haas, who later took the title, lot of trouble, having had a set point in both of the sets he lost. This year he once again got through the qualifications without being the favorite in any of his matches, and that cannot be an accident. While Stakhovsky did play great, he did travel and change conditions a lot, while Mecir has been in Vienna for a long time, has won three matches with strong victories and things are going his way. Stakhovsky has a tendency to get lost on return and be harmless, and although Mecir might not win, he will definitely not go down easily. Apart from not being much of a slugger, the Slovak is playing some great tennis here in Vienna. Although he played on clay a lot, he mentioned on several occasions that fast surfaces are his favorite, as his straight shots and good serves get on their own. Mecir has the arsenal to make Stakhovsky struggle, he is not a naive player, and will not embarrass himself today. Details

Jarry is set for reaching the Top 100 next year, there is no doubt about it. His game is good, his shots powerful, and the break points against him scarce. I think he's in for great things. If it was available, I would opt for a counter-handicap here. That is why I decided to go with his win for more than one reason. He beat De Greefe in the first round, not allowing him a single break-point. Another thing is, he beat Souza three weeks ago despite the Brazilian doing his best. As you can imagine, Souza didn't have a single break-point. I really don't understand why Jarry is this underestimated because his game doesn't not deserve it. He is great, and his win would be no surprise for me. Details

First time I saw Jarry play was this year at a challenger in Morocco as he shocked Carbelles-Baena to knocked him out in the first round. I was more impressed by his aggressive game, serving and forehand than by the win. As the season advanced, he was getting better, with his top results happening in the last month. He recorded two wins against Zeballosa and Sousa, who are always top of the crops at tournaments such as this one. Jarry has a great chance of getting in the Top 200 by season's end, becoming one of the top challenger players , and the youngest Chilean to reach a challenger final. De Greef has not played in a month, which could turn out to be a problem since his opponent spent quite some time in South America, having adjusted to the conditions and playing better tennis at the moment. Belgian's last match was in Trnava at challenger level and given Jarry's rhythm, performances, and talent I think De Greef is in for a defeat today. Details

With Giraldo being a Top 30 players, and Kokkinakis not even in the Top 150, this bet makes no sense. But ranking can sometimes be deceiving. Giraldo's game has not been Top 30 material for a while. He's had 6 consecutive defeats ahead of Shenzhen, and then managed to end the bad streak in the firth round here...Despite facing a player who's not even in Top 1000, Giraldo somehow managed to lose the first set, and allow the opponent seven break-points, 6 of which he managed to save, in the next two. That speaks volumes of his game. Kokkinakis did three matches in Shenzhen so far, and lost only seven first service points in all three of them combined. He never lost his service game in qualifying matches or in main draw. The Australian is doing very well here, while Giraldo keeps on performing unconvincingly. Any other better player would punish him for it in the first round. I think Kokkinakis is one of those better players. I think he has very good chance of winning. Details

I expected the odds for this match to show more respect for Pospisil. The Czech has been playing top tennis in the past 2 months. He has reached Top 200, and he lost his last 4 challengers to Schwartzman, Haider-Maurer and Riba twice. All top players at this level, and Starace is having a really mediocre season. I think the odds on him are a bit pumped up on account of his first round match. He beat an anonymous player who drifted onto this tournament and is a desirable draw even at the futures level. Pospisil routinely beat Copil, losing his serve only once. All of this confirms his great form. Last year, he won this tournament, and the tennis he has been playing in the past 2 months is better than Starace`s tennis this season. In my opinion, the Czech is the favorite here. The Italian may be a bigger name but nothing more. Details

There are several good reasons why I will bet on Muller here and all of them are valid. First o all, Muller has already had one match in Shenzhen now and five matches in April on a challenger which he won without losing his serve, which shows he has no problem with adaptation. The second reason is Gasquet. He did have a perfect match against Berdyh in the Davis Cup but that was another competition and another continent. Now, he is coming to far-off hot Asia and it will take some time for him to adapt. Thirdly, Muller is a player for big matches. He will always play a strong match against the better players. After all, he has six Top 10 wins. Considering his ranking throughout the career, that is a huge figure. Fourth, Muller won last two matches against Gasquet, both of whom were played in France. Muler beat Gasquet while he was Top 10 and Top 15 in his homeland, and Gasquet is now coming after a very emotionally draining match in DC: I think Muller has the chance in the first set, before Gasquet gets into his groove. Gilles has a very good serve, he got 22 aces in the first round and it can get him into a tie-break. I believe he will have his chances on the return. I expect a bit loose performance from the Frenchman, and even if it does not happen, it is still a great bet for me. Details