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I have to admit I wrote the preview for this match before the odds were set and I expected about 1,55-1,60 in Groth`s favor. We have 1.75 and I will try to explain why I expected them to be lower. He has improved a lot this year. He finally made it into Top 100 which was his long-term goal. He had a great combination of challengers with and ATP performances and he showed he can function at that level with 7 wins. He had a good match against Federer at the US Open and Pat Raffer saw his progress. He called him up for the DC team and he got his first match for Australia last week. He beat Ismailov on the third day when things were over but the pride and excitement on his face showed how much it meant to him. Duckworth has been moving at about Top 150. He has had 1 ATP win this season, and he has done a lot more at the challenger level. Just to add he lost last two matches in 2nd rounds of challengers as the favorite and he did not even have 2 consecutive challenger wins until 2 months ago. Groth has left the better impression and is in better mood. While he played for Australia and against Federer, Duckworth was in Asia losing challengers to outsiders. Details

Gao Xin is playing his first ATP match. He was invited here to Shenzhen, but did not deserve it with his results, and the difference between him and Devvarman is huge. The Chinese is not even a challenger player, and has a 15-33 score at the futures. He played four challengers, losing four matches and winning a single set. This week he took just four games from Sugita and three against Cox. This is his top potential, and he is playing against a player better than both those opponents. Devvarman might not have proven himself at the ATP level this season, but won a big match against Lajović in the Davis cup, which washed out the bitterness of losing to Krajinović. He gets games in challenger matches, I see no reason he wouldn't today. He is a patient player, makes few mistakes, works his opponent's flaws and does not depend on inspiration in terms of aggression. This is the important part here as he will play his usual game, without forcing it, and be able to use the many flaws in the Xin Gao's game. The medium handicap is at 7.5, and the aggregate games at 19.5. The Chinese did not take more than four games in his last three challenger matches, I don't see him doing it at an ATP level. The margin should be even a game lower in my opinion, since this can even go down with a break in a set, although I believe the Indian will win it decisively. Details

I bet on Montanes in the first round and watched his match against De Greef from the start. I had plenty to see as he struggled against the Belgian, went down by a set and a break. He saved the second set and then went down by a break in the third set and even saved 3 match points in the 12 game. Of course, his experience prevailed in the tie-break but so did Belgian's meltdown who missed plenty of chances. Montanes showed signs of fatigue, not just after the match but in general.That's probably why he played more aggressively than usual as he looked for shorter points. I prayed he would win the match so that my bet can go through and so I can bet against him in the next round. This was not an isolated incident in his case. Two weeks ago, he lost in the first round of a challenger, last week in the second round. He clearly has some major issues with his form. Hajek has had many problems this season but he's a player worth a lot more than his ranking shows. He has set his sights on reaching Top 200 at the end of the year and we can see the motivation. His performance in the first round against Copil was great for this bet as he beat the Romanian without losing his serve and even allowing a break chance. The first real win for him and it's obvious we might see a few more from him. The Czech is getting into his groove after his injury problems. Montanes has been anything but convincing. If Hajek didn't have so many injury problems, I would go a unit higher. If nothing else, Hajek will take a set which is good enough for us, although I think he can win as well. Details

I wrote about Rola last week and made two bets against him and both went through. He struggled with adaptation onto the clay courts after four weeks in America. In terms of result, he struggled a lot against Ignatik but Blaž should have won that in two sets. He didn't allow a single break chance in the first set and lost it in tie-break after missing three break chances. He was stronger, more assured and he showed mental fortitude that he talked about after the match. To lose a set in which you were the better player and then come back and win a match is a huge confidence boost against a tricky opponent. Volandri is a completely different story. He hasn't done anything this season, literally, until last week. One final in which he had a proper embarrassment and then beat Novak. The odds have been put together as if he wasn't asleep for the whole season. I just can't ignore his performances from the last eight and a half months and I don't think his win against Novak is so important. Hajek allowed him to take only 4 games just a few weeks earlier. Rola has improved since last week and he's a Top 100 player for a reason. Volandri is out of this group, even out of Top 150 and he hasn't been so low in over 5 and a half year. One good tournament and 15 bad ones for the Italian and 1 mediocre and 15 good ones for Rola - that's not something to ignore, especially when Rola's mediocre tournament ended in a semifinal. His match against Ignatik showed his form is on the rise, at least performance-wise. Details

I have been waiting for the odds, wondering how underestimated Metrl will be and I was't wrong. Unfortunately, the handicap bets are not widely available, but my first idea was Mertl taking a set here, but then I decided to go for this over. The Austrian is clearly the favorite, no doubt about that, but Mertl is a tricky player that has been struggling with form the entire season, as the odds show. But I think they didn't factor in the last two weeks, which are the most important ones, right? Mertl beat Fucsovics last week and then reached the tie-break in the third set against Starace and missed two match points. He gave Choinski only one game. OK, so the German is not a measure of things but he still reached the semifinals of junior US open a few weeks ago, he's not completely clueless. I repeat, Haider-Maurer is the favorite but Mertl is obviously on the rise after a terrible season, and he's very tricky in that state. He has very good skills that can get him free points on his serve and impact Haider-Maurer's psyche. I believe the Czech can get a set here, I really do, but I will go for this "safer" option. I think Mertl will give his opponent a hard time. I believe his performance will later drop so I won't go for him taking the set. This will not be a walk in the park for the Austrian, that is, it won't be if Metrl continues with the good performances from last week and the first round here. Details

Looking and Gibbs's form, it's clear she is in better form than Kovinic. After Wimbledon, Nicole went back home and got her momentum at the ITF tournaments. She got two finals in a row, took 1 title, passed the Cincinnati qualifications and reached the third round of US Open two weeks later. True, she was eliminated in qualifications in New Haven and last week in Hong Kong but that doesn't erase her string of excellent results on hard court in the past two months. She passed the qualifications here in Seoul and then beat the defending champions Watson as the outsider. She will reach Top 100 next week and that's no coincidence. Gibbs has been laying well lately while the Montenegrin has lost her form, particularly upon arrival to hard court where Gibbs has shown the most. Kovnić was eliminated in the first round of Istanbul, Baku, Tashkent and the first round of US Open qualifications. She was the favorite in 3 out of 4 matches, and the absolute favorite in 2, so it's no point saying who's in better form. She did pass the qualifications but she was a bit lucky in the third set of the first round. Gibbs has shown much more and she should win today. I'll go with a smaller stake as I don't like going for handicaps in women's tennis as they are prone to losing a set by 6-0. I will take this small handicap, but you can also use the American as a solid combo material. The odds @1.50-1.55 are pretty good and I think they're worth a moderate stake in a combo. Details

Jozef Kovalik is playing good tennis no doubt about that, especially in comparison to previous season. But besides winning the title in Meerbusch he hadn't had consecutive challenger wins this season and he barely beat Riba last week and lost against Kontinen. As good as he is, he's still unproven as a challenger player while Haase is still an ATP player, depsite everything. And a clear ATP player who got two DC wins last weekend against Delić and Čorić. They may not be household names but the two have been very successful this season. Haase lacked confidence and I believe these two matches gave him this confidence. He has a very weak score at the challenger level this season but he didn't lose against weak players. He lost against his compatriot Huta-Galund twice, and that's obviously one player that doesn't suit him as he lost against him last season. He lost against Gombos who reached the final in Prostejov. Despite Haase's complaints about his wrist after the match against Delić, I believe it's not as bad as it seems. Every player has a one or two major injuries and Haase wouldn't be here if he couldn't play, this isn't Wimbledon. Kovalik is not a proven name at this level and I still tend to trust ATP players more than challenger or semi-challenger players and that's the case here. That has so far been the right tactic in the long run. I think the realistic odds on Haase should be under 1.50. Details

You might remember I played on Munoz-De La Nava taking a set from Hanescuu two weeks ago in the Alphen semifinal. The Spaniard not only took the set, but won as well, and easily I might add. The Romanian is still a big name, and the odds lean towards him due to that, but he did nothing to earn that respect if we look at his overall performance. You can see it both in his games and results. Four challengers and only five victories don't match his ranking and pedigree. He has some issues, in my opinion primarily with motivation when playing challengers, as this is a player with more than 400 ATP matches. It's hard to slide into mediocrity, and he is sliding right now. It's my impression his career is on a downward trajectory, while Delić is shooting up. He played the final in a challenger two weeks ago, and also beat Troicki, Džumhur and Beck. Regardless of all that, he played two brilliant matches in the Davis Cup this weekend. The pressure was all on him, and after the initial stiffness wore off, he won perhaps the crucial point against Sijsling. He had 2-0 against Haase, and the Dutch was hanging by his teeth in the third. Mate allowed a single break point in the third set, at the wrong time, and lost the set. However, that was one of those defeats that actually boosts confidence, and he was showing it. He is coming here confident he can face a Top 100 player, and with faith in his tennis, as well as eager to prove himself after an adrenaline filled weekend and a great season. Hanescu seems to lack the drive, is in a so-so mood, and Delić is playing what could be the game of a lifetime. The difference in form and attitude is heavily in favor of Delić, and I'd say he has a shot at victory today, a much bigger one than the odds suggest it. Details

I've been following Kirilenko in the last four tournaments she did. I decided to bet against her three times because of all the problems she's been having this season. I know exactly what kind of situation she's in but...she didn't do badly against Sharapova. Sharapova later said she's happy Kirilenko is able to play well again. I think, having seen her most recent matches (Barthel,Stepehens,Peng,Sharapova) that her game is improving. I daresay it was even better than Sharapova's in their head-to-head match. But because of all the problems she's been having, the book makers are underestimating her today. Her opponent Vekic has been doing really badly. Her problems are not injuries - her game is just bad. She fired the coach she's been working with since she was 11 and I feel like she's completely lost at the moment. Most players she's been losing to in the last month are not better even than Kirilenko at this point. What I'm trying to say is that I know this bet is not perfect. Kirilenko did only 8 matches this year but from my point of view, she's getting better. She will be participating in doubles tournament here, clearly trying to get as many matches as possible. I think she's better than he results would suggest, and Vekić has really been doing badly. Details

Just like between Bedene and Troicki, I can't but not to mention the impression these two players left in Banja Luka. Troicki came to the semifinals without losing a set, and Rola lost two on his way, also losing 40 break-balls. It's too much for three match in a row, but none of his opponents had the quality to use that. Troicki does, and if the Slovenian offers anything similar to what he's been playing this whole week in Banja Luka, he'll definitely be defeated. The forecast for Banja Luka tomorrow was rain, and the organizers said that they'll move it indoors if the rain falls. It's simple, it's Sunday, there's no time to waste, and the finals have to be played, so the players can go to other tournaments. In that case, this bet gets even more value. Troiciki said yesterday when he played the last few points indoors that that worked for him great. It will today, if the situation brings it. However, regardless of that, everything points to the Serbian's win. In two sets, I'd add. Details

This pick is based on several factors which all point to Troicki's victory. First of all, but also most importantly - the impression. Troicki lost a single serve in two matches, scoring 17 aces on Mektić; he is serving well and that is very important. In other words, he won two routine victories. Bedene on the other hand lost sets to Rudnev and Langer. He was even behind 3-6 2-4 against the German yesterday with Langer having two break points, so practically on the edge of defeat. The Slovene did not leave a good impression, which does not instill confidence, but that old news. He did not impress when he won the tournament at Todi, going to three sets in four of his five matches, nor did he impress last week, and was grounded by the first serious opponent he met (Ramos). This makes his poor performances a continuous theme. Troicki is the prime candidate for the title here, and stated he is coming for the trophy in his first interview in Banja Luka. He is the strongest player in the roster, and it's only a matter of time before he gets back to the Top 30, while he can get a nice big 100 point chunk here. He's shown he means business in the first two rounds, while Bedene showed lots of insecurity. Details

I've been following Rola and I cannot believe the things that man is doing in Banja Luka. First he had 20 points less on return in the first round, which is a huge deficit, and still wont he match, against Dino Marcan, a 'lucky loser' who took a set from him. Yesterday against Ramirez-Hidalgo it was once again an ordeal. It all looks nice, a clean two set win on the surface. However, Blaž saved 17/17 break points, 15 int he first set. The Spaniard gave only one break point in that period, but lost the set. Rola left a very bad impression overall. Against Marcan he 'should' have lost in two sets, and against Ramirez-Hidalgo he was circling the drain. I've been writing about Coppejans a few weeks not, and you can see him maturing. Last week he beat De Bakker, here he routinely dealt with Becker and Zekić in the first two rounds. His game is maturing and I believe the boy will end the season in the Top 200. The performance Rola showed in the first two rounds will make it very difficult to deal with the Belgian, who has good momentum. Although Blaž is the favorite here, I have no doubt Coppejans will take at least a set from him. Marcan managed that, and the Spaniard would have as well, had he converted at least one of the 15 break points in the first set. Coppejans is currently doing better than both of them. Details

I believe Nedovyesov is entering this match as more of a favorite than the odds suggest. He lost his rhythm by pushing ATP tournaments, but got back into his routine by returning to the challengers, with two clean victories against local Koniusz and young Garin. Arguello on the other hand had a more drastic decline, with just a few ATP tournaments played. He carried over that negative rhythm in the challengers, taking only two wins in the three challengers prior to Szczecin. If we rewind a bit, even when they were both at this level, the player from Kazakhstan was a better challenger player, and these tournaments got him his Top 100 status and the ATP tournaments he's been playing constantly. Arguello on the other hand got close to the Top 100, but didn't make it in there, which is the biggest difference between the two of them. What I'm trying to say is that these two are close in rankings, but their challenger results, and especially the consistency of their performances, are nowhere near as close. Nedovyesov did everything a challenger player dreams of, while Arguello yet has to. Even now, Nedovyesov is not in bad shape, with no fumbles over the last three months, which cannot be said of Arguello, who "owes" much more than his opponent. Details

Riba is in a run of 4 consecutive defeats but there's more to it. His first defeat was a forfeit in Kitzbuhel due to fever. His second was on hard court against Querrey in a match in which he lost his serve only once. The third was again on hard court in a match in which he was up by a set and a break at the US Open against Mannarino and his fourth came last week against Marcora in Brasov where the Italian played his best match this season. So, out of 3 matches that he lost on the court, two had odds against him at under 1.20 and he still played will, while Marcora simply had a great match. Kovalik is playing great, he's in top form, but he's not at the same level as the Spaniard. Riba usually gets 5-6 finals at this level per year and Kovalik is still trying to make a name for himself at this level. He took the title in Meerbusch but he got 3 wins in the remaining 6 challengers. Riba is defending the final here, he wants to get back to TOp 100, which means he will be motivated here. I think that will be enough to win against the Slovak who I definitely don't see as the favorite here. He was the favorite against Dzumhur last week and still lot, while Riba is on par with Dzumhur. All credit to Kovalik but he can't be a favorite against a man with consistent challenger results. Details

I bet against Haider-Maurer yesterday and even though he won easily, the match was quite a sight. Pospisil had his fair share of stupid mistakes as he had 3-1 and a break point, 4-2 and two consecutive break chances in the first set and still lost it in the end. In the second set, he had two consecutive break chances in the third game, and 0-40 in the seventh game. His 1/7 break chance efficiency was what cost him the match and the Austrian got a "routine" win but it was anything but a routine match for him. Rufin definitely didn't deserve these odds. He was in Top 100 before his injury and he's been playing great tennis in the past month. He's won a futures, reached a challenger quarterfinal and now the final. He has a very strong serve and that's what Pospisil lacked. The Austrian was ripe for the taking in the first set but he Pospisil got too comfortable and lost. He would change his game in break chances and Haider-Maurer hit the ball like there was no tomorrow, mostly due to his nerves and the Czech failed to make use of that. The Frenchman will know how to use that and he's not weaker than the Austrian; in fact, I think he's more stable. The only downside here is the fact that Rufin has played 7 matches here after spending better part of the year on the sidelines. Haider-Maurer has lost both finals this year and both matches against Rufin in his career. I think this is a 50-50 match here and we have +3 on Rufin, which makes this a great bet in my books. A smaller stake due to Rufin's 7 matches, the fact that it's the final and yesterday's failure with the bet on Pospisil. Details

I couldn't wait for Huta-Galung to get back to playing. He's had four titles at challenger level this time last year, but now has only nine wins not counting this tournament. He is doing horribly this year, but the Netherlands seems to always be getting the best in him. Scheveningen and this tournament have been his best performances this year, though the bar wasn't set high. But, he beat No.1 seed Hasse, and has been winning the matches in which he was the favorite, which was not the case earlier this year. Munoz-D la Nava has had a good week, having beaten Sijsling and Hanescu. But both of those opponents are doing badly at the moment. Huta-Galung is more dangerous than them, despite having lower ranking. He deserves to be in Top 150, or even Top 150. Munoz deserves better ranking as well. When it comes to finals, the stats ought to be taken into consideration here. The Dutch has done 11 challenger finals and won 9 of them. Munoz did 7 and won only one. I think this is the first step towards Huta's rise. He only needed confidence, and he got it now. I think this won't be his last title this year. Details

Munoz de la Nava is a kind of the player whose ranking makes you wonder who he is. However, the Spaniard is worth much more. But, he leaves the impression that he can play well only if he's allowed to. One of those tournaments is this one in Alphen. He defeated Viola easily in the first round, defeated the aggressive Westerhof, and he defeated Sijsling yesterday, without losing a serve, and got placed to the semifinal without losing a set. He showed a great level of tennis, and Hanescu had easier opponents on his way to the semifinal, but he also showed insecurity. Yesterday, only his return kept him in against Coppejans, and his serve just hung there. Considering what both of them showed here, I think the Spaniard didn't deserve to be this underestimated. He's a tough player who can't be crushed easily. Hanescu was offering himself yesterday, and the left-handed Munoz will give the Romanian a hard time with his experience, patient tennis that's aggressive when necessary, as he won't miss the chance to hit shallow balls. I think this match is completely open when it comes to the winner, and the counter handicap sounds like a good bet. Details

As I said, Pospisil is flying below the radar even though he's playing the best tennis out of all four players in the semifinals. He gave a lesson to Ungur yesterday as he allowed a break chance in only one service game. He got out of several tricky situations that could have put the momentum onto Romanian's side. He had a one-break advantage in the second set, lost it, and missed 0-40 at the end of the set. He weathered this storm and got a deserved win. The Czech is playing great, he got two consecutive challenger quarterfinals, which he hasn't done in this entire season. Haider-Mauer is generally a better player but I don't think he will destroy Pospisil in this for. Like yesterday, I am more inclined to believe that the Czech veteran will put up a better resistance than that the Austrian will crush him. I think Jaroslav did not deserve to be so underestimated due to his performance here. I think this is a much more open match than the odds suggest. This handicap is just one game lower than against Luncanu, and the difference in quality between Pospisil and Luncanu is huge. Truth be told, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Czech win this one, and one set is very realistic here. This counter-handicap is very likely to go through. Details

I believe the bookmakers are underestimating Pospisil who made it to the semifinal in Prague and even took a set from Schwartzman, a player who made his Top 100 status at such tournaments. He also won two decisive victories here, showing his good form. Truth be told, they were not too good, but he Czech demolished both Dima and Fortuna with just four games lost. Ungur is a good player, but not invulnerable. He's had a lot of problems this season with putting together victories, even at the challenger level, due to ups and downs during the entire season, which prevents him from going all the way, like he did in the previous two seasons. Pospisil did display good tennis, and Ungur is a favorite, but I don't think that the Czech deserves to be this underestimated. He has been playing under the radar and unnoticed, while his performance shows he can achieve prhaps the most of all the quarter-finalists. I'm leaning more towards the Czech surprising with a win than that Ungur will demolish him. Also, H2H 2-1 in favor of Pospisil is an added bonus for the bet. Details