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When we're talking about Isner, then we always have a tie-break of the first set as the bet we need to focus on. Of course, bookies go down on odds in indoor and grass conditions. Today we have bigger odds on account of Murray, but that doesn't change things much, I'd say. For starters, we have to say how this and last year Isnr's record in going into the tie-break of the first set is 19-9. Only this confirms a number of things. Still, in order to get that score into relevant matches, I'll focus on matches against Top 5 where Murray belongs. In the last two years it looks like this: Murray (13), Federer (13). If we put players who are in or around Top 10, then it's like this: Cilic (13), Tsonga (13), Del Potro (13), Del Potro (10). If we put this aside because Cilic, Tsonga and Del Potro are not Murray's level on the return, it's enough to take a look at Murray's and Isner's head-to-heads. The Scotsman has the smooth 6-0 in wins, and each match had a tie-break in the first set. This year they went into a tie-break on Roland Garros's clay. Last year in Shanghai we also saw a tie-break. Last season in DC, two tie-breaks, two years before that two in Cincinnati. Each match went into a tie-break of the first set, and only one of those matches was played indoors or on grass (last season's DC). If we focus on Isner's matches against Top 5 names, generally in the last two seasons, no matter the conditions, he played like this: Murray (13, 13, 13), Djokovic (10, 13, 8), Federer (13, 13), Nadal (13), Nishikori (10, 10). All in all, he has 7-4 against Top 5 names in going over in the first set which clearly indicated that he doesn't care who he's playing against. In the last two seasons against Federer, Djokovic and Murray he has 6-2 in going over in the first set. He went into an over on clay against Nadal last season, and out of all these matches, only one was indoor or grass (again DC against Murray). As for Murray, this and last season in fast conditions his record is 7-42. It sounds very desperate, but we can't compare Isner or Karlovic to other players. Murray has 13-0 in matches against Ivo and Isner. Yes, he knows how to deal with them, his return is good, but he always went into the over of the first set against Isner. If we're going to look for a negative thing in this bet, that would be Murray's record against Raonic. With him he almost never went into the tie-break of the first set. In the last three seasons his record in going over in the first set is 1-7, in fast conditions 1-2. However, duels against today's opponent (6-6) which is important, and against Ivo (4-7), but also Isner's record against names similar to Murray indicate how we have a value in this one. Details

Karakhi's results show that he doesn't possess much quality. He is 25 and has never been in Top 100. He has been limited to just a few games against any serious players over the past few years. Serra(139) – 2 games Khadari(582) – 0 games Gigounon(243) – 5 games Toledo(556) – 3 games Khaddari(605) – 2 games Vaisse(297) – 3 games Janvier(781) – 3 games Fournier(728) – 3 games Jarr(408) – 4 games ----------- last two seasons)------ Simonsson(800) – 2 games Tsitsipas(800+) – no games Simon(594) – 5 games. All of those players are below Tsitsipas' quality and still, he lost 9 out of 2 matches by getting 3 or less games. A big reason for going with a handicap at Tsitsipas is the fact he left this opponent without a single game last season even though he was ranked worse than now. He is now a challenger play with 7 such wins. Last week in Morocco he played his first CH final. Also, he beat Simon by 6 games this season and Simon beat Karakhi, losing just 5 games. Also, Karakhi lost to Allouch by 7 last season and Alliuch got just a game against Ignatik yesterday. Tsitsipas will get into Top 100 soon. Comparing his results with players like Karakhi is tough because there aren't many of them. That is why we can make comparisons with players Karakhi lost to convincing. There is Simon and the Allouch match and the one against Simonsson last season. Karakhi got two games against him while Tsitsipas limited the Swede to 7 games and recorded an easy win. Tsitsipas was much weaker than he is today and has still allowed Karakhi no games in their H2H. Karakhi should not be able to get more than 3 games here. Details

Kocevar was never Top 300 in his carrier and he was born in 1990. He recorded just 4 challenger matches and one win, which speaks volumes of his quality.

As for his performances against Top 100 players, he has just one of those from last season in DC against Slovakia when he lost the close match to Klizan. The Slovak won the first set 6-1 back then.

Kocevar has a few matches against players ranked 101-200.
Gombos(116) – 26 46 67
Zeballos(117) – 16 26
Mayer(119) – 16 26

These are his matches against players ranked 201-300 in the last 3 years:
Menendez(217) – 26 46
Mertl(258) – 36 16
Brands(284) – 36 46
Brkić(246) – 61 26 76
Safwat(240) – 06 46
Cagnina(270) – 06 46
Mektić(217) – 26 67
Gigounon(251) – 36 62 46

Even without those stats, it is clear that we have a big distance in quality here. If we assume that the handicap at Sousa in two sets would probably be -7,5, Kocevar would cover that against players ranked 101-200 in 2-0 record, while he would covert the the potential one of -11,5 on three sets in the 1-0 against Gombos. Most importantly, these are players who are outside of Top 100, while Sousa is Top 50. That is the difference in quality.

Even against players ranked 201-300 he has only 5-3 in covering of the +7,5. That is a huge difference in quality between Mertl, Safwat, Cagnin, while he lost by 6 games to Menendez, by five to Mektic, Brands. Besides that win over Brkic, he beat just one one set against played in Top 300 in the last 3 years.

As for Sousa, he played only Sodelund when it comes to players outside Top 400, not counting Tursunov. He limited Soderlund to just 4 games and that same Soderlung limited Kocevar to just 4 games this year. Sousa played a few players who are relevant for this last season. If we focus on those outside Top 400 (Kocevar is outside Top 400 now), Sousa limited Sillanpa, who was No. 505 to just two games in DC Cup in three sets. He limited Androic to 3 games in Umah, Idmbarek to just two games in three sets, also in Davis Cup.

Overall, Sousa trashed those opponents he could have trashed in the last two years in Davis Cup. He beat Ignatic, Idmbarek and Sillanpa last season by covering the 11,5 handicap, while he lost to Gerasimov in a strange match after losing just one game in the first two sets. BUt Gerasimov was then on the verge of Top 300. He's a better player than Kccevar. This season in DC, Sousa beat even Melzer by 11 games.

If we focus on bad things here, it's Kocevar's win over Brkic. But Brkic is two levels below Sousa. After that we have Klizan and just 6 games between them but I'm not surprised with that because Klizan is always capable of getting things complicated. Sousa is much more consistent and likely to trash his opponents. When it comes to Sousa, the bad thing is his defeat to Gerasimov but that's it. He trashed 4 opponents in DC this and last season. He trashed Soderlund in a match that is very relatable to this one, and he trashed Androic last season in a relateble match. In the last two years, he is 4-0 in covering of the handicap I expect against Kocevar this against players outside of Top 400. Details

Vejvara started his professional career this season, he is 19-years-old, and his best ranking as junior player was 153rd. That's not impressive, neither are his results against somewhat quality players, and we should keep in mind that these are all matches from this season. If we focus only on players from the Top 1000, then his record is 1-6. He lost most of those matches in handicap. Safranek (301-400) 2-6, 2-6, the odds were 1.05; Marti (301-400) 2-6, 2-6, 1.03 odds; Mertl (201-300), 2-6, 2-6, 1.06 odds; Kekercheni (801-900) 1-6, 6-7, no odds; Vocel (901-1000) 1-6, 7-5, 6-4, no odds. This match is interesting because Vocel entered the main draw at that same tournament as the lucky-loser, and he defeated him 6-4 6-2. Ofner (901-1000) 3-6 2-6, 1.15 odds. It is evident that Vejvara doesn't really have any quality, he lost to +1.6 handicap to players like Mari, Mertl and Safranek, and realistically, Gimeno-Traver is better than all three of them. He also easily lost to players like Kekercheni, Ofner and Vocel, players who would have odds under 1.10 against Gimeno-Traver. The Spaniard did not play a single match against players outside the Top 1000 this and last season, so the situation is different with him, and it is hard to compare his to players like Vejvara. As far as the odds at 1.05 or under are concerned, he played only two of those in the last two years. He only covered the handicap in one of them. This season he had two slip ups against Soderlund and Gialcone, but they are in Top 500, much better than Vejvara. His record against players who are a level under Gimeno-Traver is what interests me the most. Vejvara easily loses at -6.5 to players from 300th - 400th position, and he cannot compete against players who are in the Top 1000. I think Gimeno won't even need his best tennis to cover this handicap. Details

Barty played just two tournaments this season. However, the Australian is not a player who was out with an injury. According to her, she just needed to take a break. She won Wimbledon as a junior and has always liked playing on grass court. She reached Eastbourne ITF semifinals after qualifiers and recorded 6 wins. One was almost an under. She beat players like Ula Radwanska and Paszek, who are too good for the Chinese. Also, she did well in Eastobourn at WTA level too. Barty reached main draw again and recorded 5 wins, three of which at this under against mostly better players. All the talk that she didn't play much recently is not true. Jia, on the other hand, will be 27 this season and has reached 198 spot in the ranking as her best ranking ever. she never played ATP level in her life and has just one Top 100 match in her carrier. She played 5 matches against Top 150 players last seasons and lost 4 of them at this under. I'm talking about hard court because she didn't play indoors or on grass court. The only time this under wasn't recorded was against Martin but that was just one game off. This season on hard court she has just three wins, two of which against players who are not in Top 800. She didn't play with players who are Barty's level so far. Barty is outside of Top 300 and hasn't played a long time so that ranking isn't realistic. The realistic ranking is around No. 100. Jia cannot deal with that level while Barty recorded unders against much better players at the two tournaments she played. Jia mostly lost at an under against players like Barty. That was on hard court, which she likes much better than grass court. I think the Australian will record an easy win here. Details