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Tips archive
  • Football 

    Portugal 1 Vitoria Setubal - Nacional Madeira

  • Total goals 2,25 tip: Over
    28.09.2014. 19:00
    Result: 2:0
    Tipster Absolution
    Odds: 2.01
    Stake: 4/10
    Profit: -2
    Published: 28.09. 11:42
    Bookmaker:
     
    Although the Portuguese league is not exactly synonymous with overs, there are often matches here that hint at lots of goals, and this is one of those. Setubal and Nacional were among the top 5 scoring teams in the past season, and might be again this season. Both teams went through changes this summer and are still looking for their form, especially on defense, which was reflected in their scores, as they ended up 5th and 7th respectively, while they are currently in the lower third of the ladder and looking to get out of there with a win in this duel. Judging from their previous performances, they will need to score more than they get to achieve that, as Vitoria conceded 10 in five rounds, and Nacional conceded 7, where we also need to add 2-5 in the aggregate for the loss against Dinamo from Belarus in the EL. Setubal are missing some players today, two defenders among them, while Nacional are missing an important defensive midfielder which will further disrupt their balance, a constant problem for them this season. Offense is still more than solid, and one of the quicker in the league, which makes them especially deadly on transition. However, that is usually accentuated in defensively focused teams, which could not be further removed from these two, as we'll most likely see an open match where both teams will attack to win, not defend. Both are playing with three forwards, have inconsistent defenses and their previous duels as well as matches they've played so far suggest that the worst you could do today is to get half your money back. Details
  • Football 

    Portugal 1 Porto - Boavista

  • Home team total goals 2,5 tip: Over
    21.09.2014. 21:15
    Result: 0:0
    Tipster Absolution
    Odds: 1.83
    Stake: 4/10
    Profit: -4
    Published: 21.09. 12:25
    Bookmaker:
     
    The city derby is a derby only on paper, the intensity can last for 25-30 minutes tops in a ratio of strengths as it is. You'd have to go back a few decades to find a derby where the ratio was the same as today, and the games both showed guarantee that Porto will confirm their quality with the result. Boavista looked terrible in both away matches, especially the last one where Rio Ave created danger with almost every attack, because of the very bad defense in the wings where Porto are traditionally always strong. This season, they won all four matches at home, while Boavista lost all away matches as expected (0-3, 0-4), and will hardly go without conceding three goals tonight. Because they skipped the second league, the first league roster is inexperienced, no good reinforcements were brought, and the only weapon they have is aggressiveness, which they use too much and ended the first three matches with ten players on the field. It wouldn't surprise me if the same thing happens tonight. The 1.95 odds offered by PSK for Porto >2.5 is worth the standard stake, and the alternative can be -2 becuse 2-0 is the minimum result this match can end up with. Details
  • Football 

    Portugal 1 Gil Vicente - Sporting Lisabon

  • Away team total goals 1,5 tip: Over
    21.09.2014. 19:00
    Result: 0:4
    Tipster Absolution
    Odds: 1.85
    Stake: 4/10
    Profit: +3.4
    Min. odds: 1.70
    Published: 21.09. 11:02
    Bookmaker:
     
    It's not an accident that Gil Vicente were one of the three teams without a point after the first three rounds, nor is it by accident they're last now. It reflects the lack of quality in their roster and suggests they're fighting against relegation. They're very thin at defensive midfielders and their defense is even more weakened without both center backs today. They have only one true center back now, who didn't play a match in 6 months, which will force Mota to experiment on defense. Sporting are struggling to get results once again, and cannot capitalize on a performance that is very unlike their points, but they have to get a break once, and it seems this is the day. If they are to score more than one goal in one of their first eight matches somewhere, Barcelos seems their best bet, as their next matches are against Chelsea and Porto. Of the five they've played so far, they've scored one goal in each match, and the weak Gil is a good chance to improve their scoring ratio, especially since they took points on past two occasions here as well, end of 2013 it was 2-0 and back at its start 3-2 when they were in much worse shape than now.
    In Maribor Sporting once again showed they're in the game, especially since João Mário arrived, but they failed to capitalize on 13 shots on the goal and poor defending. They have the offense, can create opportunities, but the goals did not happen. With Rojo leaving, their defending couple Maurício-Sarr are still tuning up, which could give P.Oliveira a chance. They don't instill confidence either way, so team over seems the best bet, as Sporting will score, regardless of whether they need two to win. Details
  • Football 

    Portugal 1 Braga - Estoril

  • Match result tip: 1
    30.08.2014. 21:30
    Result: 2:1
    Tipster Absolution
    Odds: 1.99
    Stake: 4/10
    Profit: +3.96
    Published: 30.08. 11:16
    Bookmaker:
     
    The odds make me show faith in Braga today. I didn't expect more than 1.65-1.70. The bookmakers usually overestimate Braga, so I was surprised by today's 1.90+, especially compared to last seasons when they played at home against Estoril. Estoril are weaker compared to then, first of all, their coach, regardless of Jose Couceiro being longer in the business than his predecessor. He not only won't be able to repeat what Marco Silva did in the last two seasons, but probably won't be able to do it for a long time. While Estoril sold a few of their starting team players this summer, including their best player Evandro, Braga kept the backbone of their team, and added a few reinforcements, so I have no doubts they'll kick Estoril out of top f. Estoril will hardly get to Europe again, and they're coming here still shook up from the high defeat in the last round, when they conceded five goals against Rio Ave, whose coach mentioned fatigue from traveling to Sweden before that match.
    Braga are so much stronger that hardly any of Estoril players could have a spot in Braga, except maybe their goalie. They're better, confirmed by a few Portuguese national team players, their bench is also stronger, and I think they have a better coach. They're playing at home, and I think these odds are too high, especially because they were 1.45 and 1.75 in the last two seasons. Braga celebrated both times, with three goals scored, and considering the h2h who tend to go over, I think the home team's win in the over is worth taking for a smaller stake. This bet can be found for 3.50. Details
  • Football 

    Portugal 1 Braga - Boavista

  • Handicap -1,5 tip: 1
    17.08.2014. 20:00
    Result: 3:0
    Tipster Absolution
    Odds: 2.10
    Stake: 4/10
    Profit: +4.4
    Min. odds: 1.90
    Published: 17.08. 11:51
    Bookmaker:
     
    Sérgio Conceição will take the helm of Braga in this season, and he also has a stronger roster at his disposal, as reinforcements to the last year's team cost over 9 mil. Euros. They played six matches in the preseason with a 4-1-1 score, and seem ready, especially when facing the weakest team in the league. The odds might seem low, but even during their last year's disappointing season, a rare one in which they did not end close to the top, Braga had odds similar to these in at least half their games. Compared to lat year, Braga are better, and the opponents... were in the third league only recently. Boavista are back in the 1st league, but their roster is anything but 1st league. Last year we saw with Olhanense how hard it is to be at least second to last when you change almost the entire roster, and Olhanense back then had players brought in from the Italian league.
    Boavista spent a few seasons fruitlessly trying to get at least to the second league, and I feel we can still look upon them as a third league club with a bunch of new, not too good players, few of whom have first league experience, and who have yet to mesh into a competitive team. Preparation games were supposed to achieve that, but they seem to have avoided those. They played only three and lost to Feirense (0:2), played 0:0 against Setubal, and lost against Sporting 1:3, only that was Sporting's B team. They will try to defend today, but Braga's offense consisting of Eder, Rafo, Alan, Pardo, Tibo, Ruben Micael is too strong for a "third league" defense, and I expect a sure win, as with the home ground advantage there should be at least a two goal difference, and we should get a confirmation of that. Details
  • Football 

    Brazil 1 Gremio RS - Atletico Mineiro

  • Handicap -0,5 tip: 2
    27.04.2014. 23:30
    Result: 2:1
    Tipster Absolution
    Odds: 1.70
    Stake: 4/10
    Profit: -4
    Min. odds: 1.60
    Published: 27.04. 11:23
    Bookmaker:
     
    Gremio and Atletico-MG have done similarly in 2014. They both got through the group stage at Libertadores, and they're both down after the first leg round of 16 games. Also, they both lost the finals of the regional championships to their bitter city rivals. Actually, Atletico-MG were not defeated because they played 0-0 against Cruzeiro both games, but Cruzeiro won the title because they did better in the regulation season. Gremio were defeated to Inter in both games, having conceded 6 goals in the final games.
    We could find more similarities, but more importantly for this bet, they have different approaches for this game. Gremio are on a three-game losing run, they will not play with the best line up, and that's enough to not consider them as favorites for the win. Atletico will play with their best team, they have a new coach, and the effect that might create cannot be neglected. The players themselves said they were confused with the last coach and by his methods. That was obvious from their struggle with efficiency despite the great offense potential that is Ronadinho, Tardelli, Fernandinho, and Jôu. On the other hand, at least the defense are tough, they conceded only one goal in the last 5 games. Gremio didn't managed to score a single goal against them in their last five head to head games, and haven't won since 2010.
    Gremio's line up will consist of only 2-3 usual starting line up players, while Atletico plan to play with the best possible line up. Even if they combine 1,70 for x2, it would be good odds sine they played most part of the last season with the second choice team which is better than Gremio's, and the best one deserves equal odds here. Details
  • Football 

    Portugal 1 Porto - Rio Ave

  • Handicap -1,5 tip: 1
    21.04.2014. 21:00
    Result: 3:0
    Tipster Absolution
    Odds: 1.86
    Stake: 4/10
    Profit: +3.44
    Min. odds: 1.75
    Published: 21.04. 11:08
    Bookmaker:
     
    Even though it may seem like a bad moment to bet on Porto, several things say that it's worth the shot. Porto did flop this season but it was generally in away games, while they have been pretty convincing at home with 11-1-1 and a goal difference of 30-5, as they have no problem imposing their game. On Wednesday, they were defeated by Benfica and lost the Cup finals, which is an additional bonus for this bet as if there is something the're good at, these are the games after they win. I expect the same tonight against Rio Ave against whom they managed to get out of the pickle when they beat them by 3-1 away. The reason for betting on Porto is Rio Ave reaching the Cup finals and the place in Europe for the following season which is their biggest success in last 30 years. Porto are without two standard players and the visitors are not expected to field their best team. Last weekend, they didn't just rotate, they fielded their second-choice team that allowed the worst team in the league get their only away win this season. Regardless of the squad they use, it's hard to expect them to give their best. Two weeks ago, they had an away game against Benfica and they put up no resistance whatsoever (0-4) and I expect another lamentable defeat against Porto who have beaten them here for 8 times in a row. Details
  • Football 

    Portugal 2 Sporting-Covilha - Portimonense

  • Match result tip: 2
    06.04.2014. 17:00
    Result: 1:1
    Tipster Absolution
    Odds: 2.15
    Stake: 4/10
    Profit: -4
    Min. odds: 2.00
    Published: 06.04. 12:27
    Bookmaker:
     
    Portimonense could take care that the southernmost Portuguese region still has a representative in the 1st league since Olhanense are about to drop out of it. Moreirense seemed a good candidate for promotion. There's a big fight for the one place left leading to a higher rank, and the third-placed will get a chance for playoffs with the 1st league's 15th club. Of course, this is without considering B teams, who don't have a right to promotion anyway.
    In that lineup, Portimonense are third, with 3 points behind Penafiel, Aves only a point behind, so every point could decide, and their schedule brings two difficult away matches after this one. Their away form isn't that great lately, and they have a chance to fix that today, even though they're without two players with cards (Zambujo and Nelsinho), but two standard players are coming back (Kanazaki and Moreno).
    Covilha played the first part of the season well, then dropped the form and lost 12 out of the 14 last official matches. They have six defeats without a goal scored before this one today. They're also without a few players because they had 3 sending offs in the last round. The first goalie, the standard defender Edgar and Bata (club's second striker) were sent off. Even though they play in Liga de Honra, the club often doesn't do honorable things. They lost the last two matches against the two last-placed clubs. Beside the three with cards, the latest intel shows that the centre forward Forbes (30/11) is also out, and the midfielder Gui (31/3), which means the home team are without five starting eleven players - first goalie and four best strikers. Other news from Covilha are only president's lamentations about financial aid being cut by the city adn the region.
    It's the end of the season, and the odds are set more because of the motivation, which is on the guests' side in this case, and it seems bookies didn't count Covilha's absences in. Covilha have a thin roster, and we should consider they are tired because they also played the League Cup, so it's not surprising they're exhausted in the end of the season. That's why I believe the guests will win, either way, because if they celebrated in the last two duels in different circumstances, they should today, too. Details
  • Football 

    Portugal 1 Braga - Benfica

  • Match result tip: 2
    30.03.2014. 18:00
    Result: 0:1
    Tipster Absolution
    Odds: 1.72
    Stake: 4/10
    Profit: +2.88
    Min. odds: 1.70
    Published: 30.03. 11:28
    Bookmaker:
     
    Benfica are a favorite in this match, and to justify that role, they even put this match in front of the cup semifinals against Porto where Jorge Jesus went without six of the starting eleven players. Jorge Jesus is learning from his own mistakes, and the fact that he's Benfica's longest lasting coach since the 50s of the last century proves it. He's aware that a second blunder in a row (after Porto in the cup) could raise some old quarrels, but that's not that likely right now. Unlike Braga, Benfica are consistent with their games and results, and have a roster so wide that even their substitute players can form a team equal to how Braga are today.
    Braga had a great defense in the last seasons, but that changed last year. Even though they have 12 matches without a defeat at home in a row, those matches were mostly against clubs from the bottom of the league table or the second league clubs. Defense will be struck not only by the offense today, but also their own problems because they're missing nine players for today's match, including five defenders and one defensive midfielder. Center forward Eder has been injured for a long time now, and Rafa and Alan's absences are especially problematic because they're some of the club's best players.
    Even though the Quarry isn't an easy pitch for Benfica, today's situation works in their favor, and they're rightfully favored more than in the previous seasons, and this season's Braga aren't what they used to be, confirmed with their league table position. Add to that all the absences, and the odds, regardless of going down, are still worth playing because they weren't over 2,00 last year, either, when Benfica routinely out played them, like they should today. Details
  • Football 

    Portugal 1 Olhanense - Belenenses

  • Handicap +0,25 tip: 1
    09.03.2014. 17:00
    Result: 0:0
    Tipster Absolution
    Odds: 1.70
    Stake: 5/10
    Profit: +1.75
    Published: 09.03. 11:16
    Bookmaker:
     
    Even though often times a home pitch doesn't mean the home team's a favorite in the duel between the clubs of same quality in Portugal, I'd say this is an exception, and it shows in their results. In a duel of two teams equally bad, I don't see why the odds are set to equal, and in some bookmakers, Belenenses are even a slight favorite. The table shows these two are the worst guests of the league, and their schedule makes the points from today more important for Olhanense because they only have three home matches after this, and against the clubs that they can hardly defeat. Olhanense got decent 7 points since the Italian started coaching them in four home matches, and besides that effect of the points, Galderisi psyched the players psychologically. He said he found them with their heads down, and now they believe in survival and breathe like a team, which wasn't easy to create from a legion of strangers that the Italian management brought this summer and this winter. Belenenses have the same ratio for matches at home and away as Olhanense do, and that shows that they only got three points in away matches, which means they haven't won away in 10 months, and that's what's supposed to happen to break this bet. You can't win if you don't score, and they haven't scored in away matches since September, or 735 minutes in the league. Besides the home pitch, the home team also have experience on their side because Belenses came here from the second league this season, and they haven't changed their roster much, so they started the season with players too inexperienced for this level, and they also had bad luck with their coach who had to leave because of a sickness, so the team were left with his assistant. Olhanense are made from the legion members, but they're far more experienced players who went through stuff in the Italian Serie A and B, and I don't see them defeated today. Even a tie makes this bet half a win. Details
  • Football 

    Portugal 1 Braga - Nacional Madeira

  • Total goals 2,25 tip: Over
    08.03.2014. 21:15
    Result: 2:1
    Tipster Absolution
    Odds: 1.74
    Stake: 4/10
    Profit: +2.96
    Published: 08.03. 11:45
    Bookmaker:
     
    Even though my first idea was Nacional +1 (1,7-1,8) which is still good, but this game has another interesting options and that is this total number of goals. Braga's poor defense cost them the CL last season and the same reason has put their EL place in danger this season as they are 7 points behind their opponents for today. Due to poor results, Jesualdo Ferreira was replaced by less-renowned Jorge Paixão but Braga continued their practice from last season in the first game under the new coach as they gifted Porto the win. This was the first game without a win and the fourth game in which they conceded two goals. Three out of those four games were played away and they have to win today for several reasons. Their offensive capabilities were never in doubt, especially at home where they have a run of 8-2-0 and a goal difference of 22-12 in 11 games. Nacional have not been defeated in 13 rounds, even though they had away games at Porto and Sporting in this period. Apart from being undefeated, they have scored 14 goals in 9 games played in 2014 and their last game against Braga is encouraging as the scored 9 goals in three games played in 2013. Braga have to go for the win because of their standing and situation in the club and they won't certainly do that with defense that has conceded 12 goals in last 7 games, 3 of which came at home against Aves (3-1), Gil Vicente (4-1) and Arouca (2-2) so their shaky defense will give Nacional's fast-paced forwards many space, as was the case last year when they scored 3 goals in 3 minutes. Nacional prepared for this game without 3 of their defenders who were on national team duty. There have not been under 2 goals in their last 11 games and this is a guarantee to get half the stake back, even though one should expect the trend from their last 5 games (1-2, 1-2, 3-2, 1-3, 3-0) to continue. Details
  • Football 

    Portugal 1 Rio Ave - Academica (POR)

  • Handicap -0,5 tip: 2
    07.03.2014. 21:00
    Result: 0:0
    Tipster Absolution
    Odds: 1.90
    Stake: 4/10
    Profit: +3.6
    Published: 07.03. 11:13
    Bookmaker:
     
    Rio Ave are sailing through another season, but they won't be able to do as well as last year when they held position six in the end. But, they managed to make up for that in the Cup competitions this season, which can therefore already be marked as successful - 26 points are considered enough.
    Academica went over that point margin in the last round, having won after a few bad games. That game was the first one in which Sergio Conceicao was back on the team following a 20-day suspension. That defeat was rough on the visiting team and will serve as additional motivation in a game much similar to two games we already saw this season. Both games were lacking any kind of risk and the goal can be scored only if someone makes a mistake - which happened twice. Academicas' player scored an own goal 10 minutes before the times was up in the first game, and the recent game was settled when goal keeper Ricardo made a mistake. I doubt the tough visiting team's defense will give the win away from the third time straight. Academica proved they are doing better than the results suggest by winning 3-0 against Arouca, who have been doing good lately as well. Arouca had four consecutive draws before that game against better teams.
    Rio Ave got worse in the championship because of all the strain extra games entailed. They won only 2 points in five rounds, and the home games seem to be a particularly big problem. They won only twice this season, against the newly promoted Belenenses and against Setubal early in the season.
    Efficiency is neither team's characteristic, both are struggling with offense, but the visiting team lost only once in the last seven rounds, (conceded only one goal in the last 6), which is why they're the favorite for the win. On the other hand, Rio Ave won only one out of the last 9 games, having recorded two wins in the last five months against the two weakest teams in the league. I don't see them even close to the 50% of chances for the win that the book makers suggested. Details
  • Football 

    Portugal Cup Penafiel - Benfica

  • Total goals 3.0 tip: Under
    05.02.2014. 20:00
    Result: 0:1
    Tipster Absolution
    Odds: 1.91
    Stake: 4/10
    Profit: +3.64
    Published: 05.02. 11:14
    Bookmaker:
     
    Benfica are quite expectedly huge favorite here as the opponents are from the second division but it's very hard to find an indicator that this will be an easy game, regardless of the difference in quality. Benfica have changed their approach this season and they aren't as dominant as they used to be in recent seasons, especially at home. Regardless of the venue, when they get the lead they slow down and they've scored more than two goals in only one out of last 8 games and their defense has become more stable in those 8 games with the change on goal as they have only conceded 1 goal in these 8 games. Tonight, they have an additional reason to save their energy due to upcoming derby against Sporting in four days. Bad weather in Northern Portugal still goes on and it was visible on Saturday how it makes things difficult as Benfica couldn't get two goals at their muddy pitch even with two penalties. Tonight they will face strong wind and an equally poor pitch, with mud and sporadic puddles. Penafiel have an average of 1.6 goals in their games in second division thanks to their great defense ( the best in the 2nd division) and their barren attack that has scored only 29 goals in 28 rounds. Tonight, they're playing their 41st game this season, their 10th in the last month and I believe they would have a problem scoring against Benfica even if they were better rested, while the poor conditions will definitely be reflected in the scoreline, as manager Miguel Leal said himself. Benfica have 11 clean sheets in 12 away games in the Cup since 2008 and I expect the same tonight, but I don't think they will score more than 1-2 goals. As a safety measure, I will take under 3.0 which means void in case of 3 goals. Details
  • Football 

    Portugal 1 Vitoria-Guimaraes - Nacional Madeira

  • Handicap -0,5 tip: 2
    03.02.2014. 21:00
    Result: 1:2
    Tipster Absolution
    Odds: 1.85
    Stake: 4/10
    Profit: +3.4
    Min. odds: 1.60
    Published: 03.02. 11:47
    Bookmaker:
     
    The bookmakers favor the hosts here far too much. Nacional seem like a better and more cohesive team which should "on paper" be annulled by the home pitch advantage, which is something that cannot actually be regarded as a major advantage in Portugal as witnessed by the results from the games of the mid-table clubs. If we disregard the top clubs, the visitors remain undefeated in 2/3 of the games. Nacional have no need to risk too much and they are more dangerous in transition than Guimarães which should take more risks as the hosts. If they do that, the chances of Nacional being undefeated here are bigger than the odds would suggest, and the return of Abdoulaye Ba to Porto also speaks in favor of this. Apart from him, Rui Vitoria has lost a potential replacement for him - Freireo, who went to Nacional and it is very probable that midfielder Moreno will take his place in defense which has been proven as a bad solution this season. Guimarães have rarely won at their stadiu this season and they haven't beaten an opponent of Nacional's strength so far. In last 7 games in all competitions they have a 1-1-5 score. At the start of the season,they beat the weak Olhanense, Maritimo who had a run of 5 defeats and Academica who lost a player in 34th minute. On the other hand, Nacional have rarely lost in last few months. Since October, the only teams that have beaten them are Benfica and now they have run of 8 league games without a defeat and in away games, they have a defeat in Esotril in the first round and later against Benfica, while they took points against Porto and Sporting, which can be done tonight, all the more so as both teams would be happy with a point. Details
  • Football 

    Portugal 1 Arouca - Sporting Lisabon

  • Total goals 2.5 tip: Under
    18.01.2014. 21:15
    Result: 1:2
    Tipster Absolution
    Odds: 1.87
    Stake: 4/10
    Profit: -4
    Published: 18.01. 11:20
    Bookmaker:
     
    When learning about this game, my first thought was that Sporting will win. The 1,50 odds don't seem like a big single material, but we need more arguments for the handicap away. The bad weather which soaked the pitches in Portugal these days won't agree with the favorite. Porto's game had to be suspended due to bad weather three days ago, and similar forecast is expected today as well. Those kind of conditions, as a rule, work in favor of the technically inferior opponent, which could, in addition to home team's fierceness, cause problems for Sporting's offense. It didn't do well away against Estoril last round. It was Sporting's third consecutive goalless draw. That streak was ended this week against Maritimo in the League Cup. Both team's line ups were reshuffled.
    Sporting haven't conceded a goal for 8 games, they conceded only to Porto and Braga, while Rui Patricio's goal remained intact in the other five games. I expect the same to happen today, and it's also quite unlikely that Sporting will sail through Arouca. Arouca's coach said his team will play fiercely today, very well organized in defense and praying on the opponent's mistakes. Sporting's defense, however, hasn't made any mistakes for around 750 minutes. The odds for under are still quite high at Marathon (1,7 with most other book makers). Choosing this under is good because it can turn out well even in case of a surprising outcome. Details
  • Football 

    Portugal 1 Olhanense - Benfica

  • Handicap +1.5 tip: 2
    15.12.2013. 19:15
    Result: 2:3
    Tipster Absolution
    Odds: 1.76
    Stake: 5/10
    Profit: -5
    Min. odds: 1.65
    Published: 15.12. 11:16
    Bookmaker:
     
    Olhanense proved in the last rounds that they really are the worst team of the league, and thus an obvious candidate for the relegation. They barely saved themselves this spring, and they replaced the entire roster this summer. Recently they replaced the coach (quite unnecessary), which only makes things worse. Already humble team was left without the captain Rui Duarte's, and the left back Jander's services, and tonight they're also without his substitute, Seric. Lucas Souza's absence is also worth nothing because coach kicked him out of the team. They didn't even score one goal in the last home games, and the same could be expected tonight, since Benfica are able to score at least one more than Academica and Rio Ave (who they convincingly defeated in the last away games), especially when they're coming after the blunder in the previous round.
    Benfica are better than Olhanense for at least two goals difference, even with all their flaws, and even if they don't play their best, so I see that coming tonight. There's no more room for mistakes, and the wide roster will replace E. Perez and Cardoz's absences. Despite Cardoz's injury, they scored 10 times in the last four games, and two of those were in the Champions League. Benfica are the guest team on paper here, but they're actually on the neutral pitch where the fans will support them, and that's another advantage besides the better pitch than the one in Olhao.
    A candidate for the title will try to improve the impression and get the points, they're the biggest favorites of the round, and I think it's more likely that the Eagles will score three than Olhanense one goal. Details
  • Football 

    Portugal 1 Sporting Lisabon - Belenenses

  • Handicap -1,25 tip: 1
    14.12.2013. 21:15
    Result: 3:0
    Tipster Absolution
    Odds: 1.91
    Stake: 4/10
    Profit: +3.64
    Min. odds: 1.80
    Published: 14.12. 11:21
    Bookmaker:
     
    Bookmakers set the odds for today's Sagres League games pretty weird, where Sporting are unreasonably set as favorites against Belenense, and Braga against Setubal. Only a glance at the league table suggests that Sporting are more of a favorite, and based on everything they showed this season, it would be sensational if Belenenses left Jose Alvalade undefeated. Sporting earned the top position, where they haven't been for almost nine years, and it's a result of the best start of the league in the last 18 years. The renaissance begun after the presidential elections, and Leonardo Jardim made it happen on the pitch, where the rejuvenated team played great, and didn't lose points to the "small" ones, unlike in the previous seasons. One of the "small" ones is the today's opponent, Belenenses, who, despite winning the title in 1946, ages ago, came back to the First League this summer, and surprisingly took points from Benfica and Porto. Those results will be hard to repeat given the humble team, but the games they played, especially the offense, in the last five rounds are the true image of this team - they only scored once, and because of Porto's stopper's mistake, and that was Porto's worst game of the season. Guests really are limited offensively, where their main weapon is free kicks. Their defense isn't that good, either, so I don't see how they can stand up to Sporting's offense, the most effective one in the league, and they score three goals per home game. Sporting's advantage against the opponents is that they don't play in Europe, and they should keep the leader status safe in this round, especially because they were so convincing against the team from the bottom of the league table. They already played and convincingly defeated four out of five worst teams, and I expect the fifth one today. The odds would be 1,15 for Porto and Benfica, and Sporing showed a lot, lot more than the competitors, so they deserve our complete trust. Details
  • Football 

    Portugal 1 Vitoria-Guimaraes - Belenenses

  • Total goals 2.5 tip: Under
    07.12.2013. 19:00
    Result: 0:0
    Tipster Absolution
    Odds: 1.73
    Stake: 4/10
    Profit: +2.92
    Published: 07.12. 11:19
    Bookmaker:
     
    Guimarães and Belenenses have 1,91 goals per game, that is, 2,00, which suggests an under, and they don't really stray from that average even when you take a look at Guimarães' home games, and Belenenses' away games. A bet for a small number of goals is suggested even when you take a look at their last games, regardless of the competition, so we can see Guimarães have 6/7 unders, and guests 9/10, and only four goals in the last five games. Both spring matches ended with an under, too, when they were playing in the Cup's semifinals. That's it about the statistics, and when you think about what the game might look like, we can expect guests to be closed off, which will create troubles for Guimarães, regardless of them being a stronger opponent, but their offense didn't prove to be their strong side in November, and they only scored once in six games. They fixed the statistics against Estorilo on Monday, but we won't be seeing a "matchup" like that tonight, when they're in the offensive role, and the opponent in the defensive one, waiting for counterattacks. Guimarães score less than a goal per game in the home games, and Belenenses even less in the away games, so there's not even a trace of possibility of either of them shooting much today, so it all leads to the eight consecutive under of the guests in the championship. Details
  • Football 

    Portugal 1 Benfica - Arouca

  • Handicap -1.5 tip: 1
    06.12.2013. 21:15
    Result: 2:2
    Tipster Absolution
    Odds: 1.63
    Stake: 4/10
    Profit: -4
    Min. odds: 1.57
    Published: 06.12. 11:21
    Bookmaker:
     
    After a nerve wrecking end of the last season, and less than convincing start to the new one, Benfica are finally winning and currently share the first position with Sporting following the string of five championship wins. They are two points ahead of Porto and still have to play three teams from the bottom part of the championship table till the end of the year, which is why we can expect them to at least stay two points ahead until their head to head game. They are a great favorite for the win against the humble Arouca, despite missing Matic and Cardozo. The fans are certainly happy because they are now able to win even when they're not playing good, which happened against Braga and in some previous games. Arouca are an opponent against which Cardozo's absence won't be as significant because Lima is finally back in form. Rodrigo and Lima will lead their defense today, and I don't think that visiting team's slow defense can do anything about them. They are both faster than Cardozo and their mobility will create space for the other offense players.
    This is Arouca's first time among the best teams, and they've been holding up quite well until the fifth round, and then lost the last seven games. In best case scenario, they will be fighting not to be relegated, coach's position is already not safe. It's hard to expect he can survive getting only 2 out of the possible 21, or even 24 points. Their game relies on attempts from the distance and set pieces, but even that will be difficult tonight - they first need to gain possession for it.
    Just to compare, Porto played one of the two worst games of the season against Arouca and won by 2 goals away, which will be no problem for Benfica home. The odds of around 1,60 are quite good, given the difference between the teams, and the fact that it's under 1,45 in most betting houses. Details
  • Football 

    Portugal 1 Braga - Olhanense

  • Handicap -1.5 tip: 1
    29.11.2013. 21:15
    Result: 4:1
    Tipster Absolution
    Odds: 1.99
    Stake: 4/10
    Profit: +3.96
    Published: 29.11. 11:28
    Bookmaker:
     
    In terms of standings, going for a -1.5 handicap is not the best solution for teams only 2 points apart but the standings can be deceiving as is the case here where the difference in quality is much higher and I believe Braga will prove this against tonight. Braga's drop in standings is a result of a poor run of games that will probably end tonight, and it should have ended last Saturday against Benfica when they earned more than a minimal draw, but Benfica's keeper and the woodwork got in the way of Braga getting the lead twice. Olhanense barely avoided relegation last season and were on the verge of bankruptcy, but the situation is not much better this season in which they are facing a tough battle for survival as they are one of the weakest and the least efficient teams in the league. And this already weak team was additionally handicapped by the absence of their best players - club captain Rui Duarte and full-back Jander. Instead of giving their youth players a chance they decided to import a few players, and the Italians brought in many players of dubious quality and motivation. They've only scored 5 times in the last 10 round and their lackluster form was reflected in the last game when they were trailing from 18th minute and got their only serious chance in the last minute. The difference between Braga and Olhanense is best reflected in a recent cup game than the current standing. Braga won that away game by 3-1 and Olhanense were forced to chase the results after the first minute and they only got 1 shot on goal. I don't expect them to be any more dangerous tonight and Braga might finally make up for all bad luck from previous games. An alternative would be Braga winning without conceding a goal. Details
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Statistics
The Betprepare tipsters have a two-year experience of giving tips on regional betting website Dvoznak.com (the predecessor of Betprepare.com). You can see their overall stats and individual stats for each tipster here. *The number of complete or partial voids is shown in the brackets next to the number of winning tips
Last 50
Success rate: 26 (1) / 50
Stake / Return: 248 / 225.85 (-22.15)
ROI: -8.9%
Overall
Success rate: 6353 (255) / 11008
Stake / Return: 53584 / 57466.92 (3882.92)
ROI: + 7.2%
By months
Month Tips Succ. Profit ROI%
2021/11 1 1 4.50 + 90.0
2021/10 1 1 3.10 + 62.0
2021/09 1 1 2.55 + 51.0
2021/08 1 1 4.10 + 82.0
2021/05 3 1 -5.10 -25.5
2021/04 1 0 -5.00 -100.0
2021/03 4 1 -10.95 -54.8
2021/02 4 2 -1.35 -6.8
2021/01 8 6 (1) 7.70 + 21.4
2020/12 4 4 15.95 + 79.8
2020/11 10 3 -23.20 -46.4
2020/10 23 10 -25.85 -23.1
2020/09 27 17 (1) 12.00 + 8.9
2020/08 16 12 (1) 20.31 + 27.4
2020/07 15 8 -2.05 -2.9
2020/06 22 11 (1) -11.70 -11.5
2020/05 3 3 10.57 + 66.1
2020/03 5 4 (1) 5.80 + 23.2
2020/02 18 11 21.90 + 24.9
2020/01 22 10 -12.95 -12.6
2019/12 29 19 31.18 + 23.6
2019/11 52 28 (1) -2.49 -1.1
2019/10 53 32 20.50 + 8.0
2019/09 35 18 -14.00 -8.1
2019/08 21 15 26.30 + 26.0
2019/07 23 12 -6.00 -5.4
2019/06 32 18 (2) -6.71 -4.4
2019/05 40 22 (2) -7.02 -3.6
2019/04 30 17 (1) 1.03 + 0.7
2019/03 36 16 (2) -44.22 -25.0
2019/02 32 18 (1) 0.65 + 0.4
2019/01 40 17 (1) -49.38 -25.2
2018/12 71 49 (3) 70.74 + 20.6
2018/11 81 45 (1) 8.90 + 2.2
2018/10 64 37 (3) 6.30 + 2.0
2018/09 45 28 (3) 18.05 + 8.1
2018/08 35 20 (3) -10.40 -5.9
2018/07 17 12 21.88 + 29.2
2018/06 31 21 36.95 + 23.5
2018/05 42 24 9.79 + 4.7
2018/04 44 25 2.45 + 1.1
2018/03 31 15 -16.35 -10.2
2018/02 40 22 (2) -6.20 -3.1
2018/01 31 20 29.95 + 18.7
2017/12 40 20 -18.35 -7.8
2017/11 47 29 (2) 22.86 + 9.1
2017/10 52 31 19.05 + 6.9
2017/09 91 55 (1) 29.90 + 6.1
2017/08 54 26 (1) -27.75 -9.1
2017/07 107 63 22.79 + 3.6
2017/06 49 34 (2) 66.58 + 21.7
2017/05 51 28 -14.95 -4.6
2017/04 56 34 (2) 45.40 + 11.4
2017/03 64 43 (2) 77.40 + 18.6
2017/02 47 30 (1) 45.95 + 14.7
2017/01 50 32 (1) 62.55 + 16.0
2016/12 45 24 (1) -3.80 -1.2
2016/11 65 41 (1) 91.65 + 20.6
2016/10 93 63 (1) 111.65 + 22.8
2016/09 82 45 -6.60 -1.6
2016/08 75 51 (1) 91.00 + 23.3
2016/07 74 48 81.34 + 20.5
2016/06 84 47 26.45 + 5.9
2016/05 124 70 (1) 19.00 + 2.8
2016/04 157 84 (4) -32.17 -3.6
2016/03 177 112 (4) 138.70 + 13.6
2016/02 178 103 (3) 133.15 + 13.9
2016/01 199 110 (3) 28.38 + 2.8
2015/12 183 109 (2) 107.21 + 11.3
2015/11 309 168 (4) 38.35 + 2.5
2015/10 305 193 (4) 281.13 + 18.6
2015/09 189 107 (4) 48.56 + 5.3
2015/08 133 75 (2) 31.03 + 4.8
2015/07 210 118 (7) 47.78 + 4.7
2015/06 149 88 (3) 86.40 + 12.3
2015/05 241 115 (8) -150.52 -13.1
2015/04 274 156 (10) 58.57 + 4.4
2015/03 298 171 (10) 83.10 + 5.7
2015/02 313 195 (11) 230.50 + 15.5
2015/01 328 194 (6) 216.65 + 13.8
2014/12 231 128 (1) 46.01 + 4.2
2014/11 330 195 (8) 183.56 + 12.0
2014/10 318 171 (6) 20.89 + 1.4
2014/09 285 154 (9) 13.34 + 1.0
2014/08 201 106 (7) -30.06 -3.4
2014/07 222 118 (3) -8.40 -0.8
2014/06 219 126 (2) 118.05 + 12.2
2014/05 318 177 (6) 92.28 + 6.4
2014/04 299 167 (7) 66.55 + 5.0
2014/03 355 223 (6) 292.57 + 18.2
2014/02 329 175 (7) 18.56 + 1.3
2014/01 330 206 (12) 246.30 + 16.6
2013/12 286 169 (8) 143.15 + 11.1
2013/11 333 195 (13) 109.72 + 7.4
2013/10 444 248 (12) 125.82 + 6.5
2013/09 268 164 (14) 161.46 + 14.3

Tipsters

Tipster Tips Succ. Profit ROI%
Marko 713 440 (7) 462.87 + 12.9
Bacos 614 380 (6) 461.24 + 16.1
Pedja16 1407 796 (23) 404.96 + 5.6
Ino 423 251 (3) 269.30 + 11.6
Goran 716 417 (8) 267.72 + 7.5
Legolas17 452 272 (6) 246.94 + 11.4
Doublem 246 155 (14) 150.65 + 12.8
Green 153 91 (1) 109.49 + 14.3
Spužva 277 165 (9) 109.14 + 8.3
Seeker 544 301 (25) 62.77 + 2.4
Hans 115 71 (2) 60.24 + 9.9
Blaf 122 78 (5) 60.03 + 9.2
Agger 103 60 (3) 27.05 + 5.3
Chamakh 21 14 21.87 + 21.2
Hrvi 58 35 (3) 21.50 + 7.0
Viking 26 17 16.20 + 10.5
Tim 10 7 13.24 + 28.2
HR 236 134 (7) -6.95 -0.6
Tomo 107 59 (2) -7.98 -1.4
Matko 65 33 (3) -12.07 -4.2
Makas 86 46 (1) -17.05 -3.9
Tipster Tips Succ. Profit ROI%
Blaf 2 2 7.60 + 76.0
Inactive tipsters +
Tipster Tips Succ. Profit ROI%
Kaziyski 493 276 230.27 + 10.1
Richardson 342 199 (4) 134.87 + 7.6
Nucky 243 139 (8) 101.41 + 8.7
Al Pacino 200 115 (1) 98.43 + 10.3
Toni 197 110 (6) 62.26 + 7.1
Kapetan 67 41 58.20 + 14.2
Medo 189 106 (2) 48.69 + 5.9
Dompa 80 48 (4) 32.62 + 9.8
Ivan 119 72 (15) 19.33 + 3.7
Nik24 29 19 (1) 15.55 + 9.4
Aco 5 3 11.21 + 40.0
Slaven 9 5 4.27 + 13.3
Jean 2 1 1.80 + 20.0
Lovac 254 133 (9) -1.58 -0.1
Davor 20 10 (1) -5.09 -6.6
Marin 3 1 -8.48 -53.0
King 7 2 -10.68 -42.7
Neco 29 15 (1) -15.77 -10.5
Klara 19 9 -18.25 -16.6
Rosca 12 5 (2) -22.63 -39.0
Hitman 12 2 -30.20 -65.7
Iguodala 18 4 (1) -50.62 -58.9
Hrvoje 113 55 (6) -62.71 -12.4

By sport

Sport Tips Succ. Profit ROI%
Football Football 1660 931 (81) 204.93 + 2.7
Basketball Basketball 3528 2029 (39) 1238.85 + 6.9
Handball Handball 2270 1360 (35) 1213.25 + 10.5
Ice hockey Ice hockey 457 263 (16) 117.89 + 6.1
Water polo Water polo 75 44 39.60 + 10.5
Volleyball Volleyball 1011 574 (1) 579.02 + 12.3
Tennis Tennis 1680 954 (74) 335.15 + 4.2
Futsal Futsal 115 72 (2) 67.59 + 11.2
American football American football 103 63 (4) 43.69 + 9.3
Baseball Baseball 6 1 (1) -19.00 -82.6
Sport Tips Succ. Profit ROI%
Football Football 2 2 7.60 + 76.0

Top 15 competitions

League Tips Succ. Profit ROI%
Handball: Norway 1 Norway 1 97 65 134.00 + 26.7
Football: Friendly Club Friendly Club 72 52 114.12 + 30.8
Basketball: Euroleague Euroleague 335 190 (6) 99.71 + 5.7
Handball: Germany 1 Germany 1 211 126 (6) 94.37 + 8.7
Volleyball: France 1 France 1 91 57 92.30 + 20.9
Handball: France 1 France 1 130 76 (1) 91.95 + 13.9
Basketball: Belgium 1 Belgium 1 78 50 85.92 + 21.5
Basketball: Greece 1 Greece 1 123 75 (2) 84.50 + 13.1
Basketball: France 2 France 2 76 50 (1) 79.93 + 21.5
Basketball: Spain 1 Spain 1 253 144 73.12 + 5.5
Handball: Croatia 1 Croatia 1 27 21 72.78 + 49.5
Handball: Denmark 1 Denmark 1 98 61 (1) 71.97 + 13.9
Basketball: NBA NBA 167 99 (4) 70.38 + 8.7
Handball: Germany 1 Germany 1 73 47 70.37 + 20.0
Handball: Austria 1 Austria 1 40 29 70.02 + 33.0
Football: Netherlands 1 Netherlands 1 67 42 (3) 58.76 + 19.1
Basketball: Croatia 1 Croatia 1 96 59 (1) 56.75 + 11.5
Basketball: Poland 1 Poland 1 83 52 54.12 + 13.2
Ice hockey: Austria 1 Austria 1 50 34 (3) 52.67 + 24.7
Volleyball: Germany 1 Germany 1 24 18 52.01 + 42.6
League Tips Succ. Profit ROI%
Football: WC Qualification Europe WC Qualification Europe 1 1 4.50 + 90.0
Football: Netherlands Cup Netherlands Cup 1 1 3.10 + 62.0

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