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Atletico continue to give completely opposite performances at home and in disinterested away games, where they are the most inefficient team of the league, while they average two per game in home games. So far they have shown to be a rewarding team to bet home team scores >1.5, and today the option of over on the game seems nice, as the charging Goias are coming to visit. Long past the imperative of results, the home team is focusing on the team world championship. They have some players missing, but that is mostly on the defense, which is a chance for the excellent Goias to extend their series of games where they've scored.
Goias have scored in every one of their last 20 games, they are in a heated battle to maintain their third spot, which they reached via a 8-1-0 series, and I believe they will score yet again today. Also, since they are playing an away game vs second ranked Gremi in the next round, they need to try and take all three points here, as the other contenders are very close indeed. We have no reason to doubt the many times proven offensive capabilities of Atletico in their home arena, especially since the offensive players on offer today include Luan, Alecsandro, Diego Tardelli, Fernandinho, and Jô, whose injury is not serious.
In the previous seasons Atletico played over in the home games at the end of the season, and should continue to do so today as well, especially as the opponent has something to say too. This makes the >2.25 option attractive, as it returns half the bet in case only two goals are scored. Details

A mere glance at the table would force you to give advantage to any other club over Nauitco - they are officially relegated after winning only 17 points in 32 rounds. They are currently on a 7-game-losing run - all those seven were handicap defeats, and they're in handicap today as well, being forced to do without a few players, five of which had their contracts ended. Among them are the three center backs, which should be visible in the their miserable defense that concedes ridiculous goals. The instability would be even greater because coach Mateotte decided to alter the formation - they are playing with a 3-5-2 formation that the defense line never played in. In fact, two out of the three center backs didn't play almost at all this season - they each played only two games.
Criciuma have to get the points here if they want to stay in the league. Nauitco haven't scored in three out of the four last games, which is good for the visiting team - their defense is the weakest part of the team. The offense usually does its part, which guarantees we'll at least get back what we put into this bet. Trying an option with a higher stake might be good as well. The season already finished for the home team and it's just getting to it's most important part for Cricuima. They already proved they can take advantage of their opponent's problems in the away games (Sao Paolo, Gremio...) They managed to score three goals against Cruizero in the last away game, which is why I believe they can beat Nautico, who will give the chance to their youngsters to prove whom they can count on next season. Criciuma scored as many goals away as Nauitco did in the 32 rounds. Finding the reasons for praising the second worst club in the league is not easy, but the difference in quality and motivation must be enough for the visiting team's win, or at least to get your stake back. Details

Another season to forget is behind Inter now, one for the management and the fans to call a failure. They ended the last one in 10th position, and will not even manage that this time. They are long out of the title run or at least one of the top four positions they hoped for, they did not do much in the cup either, and now need to watch out for the teams fighting for relegation. They will need another 2-4 points to confirm their first league status. What I cannot understand are the odds for this game, favoring Inter, who are plagued by absences and not doing much better on form either. They have not beaten anyone in five games, including the cup rematch. They are missing their entire last line and some who could be important substitutes in such a situation as well, not to mention forwards Leandro Damiao and Forlan.
One would expect Botafogo to drop from the excellent form they displayed since the start of the calendar year, but they managed to stabilize after a drop in the second half of September. As Goias caught up to them, every point is important in the race for Libertadores, and the slower schedule will come in handy as well, as they no longer need to play twice a week. Their only away defeats this season were vs teams from the upper part of the table or those (Bahia) who were in peak form at the time, a category that does not include the team Inter have today.
There is also no point in invoking the home ground advantage, as Inter have been playing on neutral ground all year long, with 5-6 thousand viewers to be expected at most. I expected the odds for +0.5 to be set on +0, and here we have a 1.90 that the injury plagued Inter will not achieve the biggest victory of the championship as they have so far beaten only teams from the bottom third of the table or those in worst crisis. Details

Had someone said at the start of 2013 that Flamengo will have an opportunity to win a title at the national level, that is, in the Carioca's local championship, even the most die-hard fans of the boys in black and red kits would laugh. The board didn't expect anything but to stay in the league in peace, but now they are in a position to win the Cup and qualify for the Libertadores. Having changed several coaches, only their last one managed to get a win. Jayme de Almeida took over the bench after Mano Menezes stepped away, probably afraid to become the first coach to get relegated with Flamengo. Goias haven't managed to translate their great form from the league onto the cup with Flamengo and they will try to fix that tonight because they can reach the Libertadores from the league as they hold the 4th spot after a run of 6 games, and this makes them less motivated for this game. Walter missed out on both games but today they will get two first-team players back.
Considering they've been playing 2 games in a week for the past 15 weeks, Flamengo's coach will rotate the squad that had a massive celebration when the got into the finals and this might result in fatigue and a potential point for Goias. Flamengo's players have already asked for their bonuses for the cup, and some even claim they won't be interested to try too hard against their rivals Botafogo as Goias are in the battle for Libertadores against them. All in all, Flamengo are not so much better than Goias that they could get 3/3 in 11 days, especially since points mean more to a more motivated and complete Goias. Details

Estoril are in the last position after three rounds, but still have the chance to get to the next round - they are now playing Freiburg and Liberec home, and Liberec is playing in Sevilla today. Estoril, who have a reputation of being good home, haven't won home for quite some time - longer than expected. In that period, they did well against Sevilla and Benfica, and almost won against Porto. The end of the negative streak might finally happen tonight - this game might have even caused the failure in the championship last round. The home team are blaming the referee for it as well - in their opinion, he failed to award them with two penalty kicks. Freiburg's situation is a bit better - they have one point more, but also have two away games against the rivals for the second position (it is expected that Sevilla will win the first position). They were the most pleasant surprise of Bundesliga last year, but managed to win only once so far this season (last weekend against Nurnberg, who are doing even worse). As they point out, Bundesliga is their priority, which is why they'll rest a few players today for the following game against Stuttgart. These two teams haven't been meeting a lot, which is making it harder when deciding on the bet. Motivation and approach often prove crucial in these kind of games. That, plus the home stadium, should give them Estoril some advantage. Besides, they are completely focused on this game because they don't play championship this weekend. Freiburg is, on the other hand, in a very difficult situation in Bundesliga, and they put the Euroean League on the back burner. Details

Olhanense and Arouca will play the first official match against each other today, and it's a typical example of a match said to be worth six points, because both teams face a real struggle to stay in. The main conditions for a tough game with a low number of shots are there, because both teams have a really weak offense potential, and the extra weight comes from the importance of won points. When you completely change the roster in the pre-season, you can't expect the team to play well together, and that they have that chemistry a team need, as is the case with Olhanense. The club management already started to look for a replacement for the coach Abel Xavier. Arouca only got points in the games where they didn't concede a goal so far, and there should be no doubts that they will be defensive today, as usual, and stalk from the counterattacks which haven't been impressive so far. Their attempts often come down to forced distance shots, and for example, they only had their first desperate shot by the end of the half-time against Porto in the last round.
Olhanense only scored four goals in the last the seven rounds, and it was never more than one per game. It's similar with Arouca who only scored five goals in seven rounds, and also not more than one per game. This match is really reminiscent of the recent game between Academico and Arouca, the one that ended with no goals. There shouldn't be more, if any, this afternoon either. Details

Atletico at home and away are two different teams as most of their points come from their home pitch where they are characterized by constant defensive efficiency and they deserve to be trusted here as they are in their best form since winning the Libertadores and their opponents are probably the weakest team to step on the "Horto" in the last month. There is a saying in Brazil - „Caiu no Horto, tá morto“ which best describes what treatment the Atletico's guests receive, and many punters have discarded the away team even before, since their relegation was practically cemented on Tuesday. They are still in the game, but playing on two fronts of an already tiring season will be very hard with such a narrow bench and a new black streak is probably just around the corner, as they have already conceded two goals in the dying moments against Nautico and they have less than 48 hours to recover from that. Fatigue and several absent players are the main and probably insurmountable problems they might have in tonight's game and the coach could rest a few players, aware that he might have better chances of getting a few points in the next round. Even without Ronaldinho, whose role was taken by Diego Tardelli, Atletico sent Santos home with 3 goals in their net, and are expecting this game better rested and with only 1 defeat in 14 rounds, and a run of overs at home that should be continued against a tired defense.The odds on home team are >1.5 and are around 1.6 so win + total over bet has a better value. Details

This is a match in which most people will at first glance bet on Atletico who deserved that with their excellent performance, but this duel on Dragao is a match where there are arguments for all three possibilities, as corny as that sounds. The great shape goes in favor of Los Colchoneros, and the home field in which Porto rarely loses and (too) high odds are making Porto an interesting bet, and those who will bet on a draw because of the importance of the match are also be right.
Porto don't look very good in recent matches and they will hardly dominate from the start to the end as it was last year against Malaga and PSG in home matches of Champions League while Simeone's Atletico is a tough nut to crack and a fighting team which kept their goal empty against Barcelona this season (Supercup) and Real this weekend. It is the win against Real where the possible trap is in betting on them because they might be drained after such a win over a big rival whom they haven't won against for 14 years. A big disadvantage for Atletico is the absence of top scorer DIego Costa who scored 8 out of 19 Atletico's goals.
A cautious approach and a tough match is to be expected as Porto usually play in the Champions League against strong opponents. PSG, Zenit, Shakhtar and Schalke came here during the past years, together with seven matches against strongest English teams, and all together only two of them ended 2-1 with all others below that score. In the last 26 home matches in the Champions League, Porto conceded more than one goal only once and Atletico conceded five in last 13 away matches so this evening's match points to 1-1 at most regarding the score. Details

Atletico Mineiro has delivered on these kind of bets so we should try it again now that they are complete and the opponent is a club who, alongside Nautico, has the worst defense in the league. Statistically, Atletico scored 17 goals in 9 matches on their home turf and this bet has passed in the last 10 out of 11 home games in all competitions and the cup as well as with Botafoga and Copa Libertadores. 10 days ago the same bet was won against Coritiba in the 26th minute. Coach Cuca still hasn't given up on the battle for the title and that's what he's using to keep his team motivated until the end of the season although they do not lack motivation, especially in matches on home turf and looking at the points, Vasco is a direct competitor because Atletico are four points away from the 18th place which is held by Vasco.
Vasco is in a crisis and they are going into this match with three consecutive losses in which they received more than one goal each time. This was the case on Wednesday when they hosted Vitorija who have turned the match to their advantage in the last 10 minutes by scoring two times. Replacing the uncertain goalkeeper Diogo Silva and the defense "helped" with both goals did not help either. With the first goal after a flipper in the penalty area, and with the second one because the goalkeeper could not have reacted better to a 25 meter shot. On Vascos home games there are 3.80 goals per match and they received 22 goals in 10 away games which is an average that covers this tip.
For a bet that has passed the last 10/11 in Atletico's home matches or, looking at a longer period, in the last 24 out of 27, 1.74 i more than an acceptable course. Details

Following a problematic preseason due to a series of poor defensive performances, Benfica have entered the new championship in a similar way, but they are starting to show glimpses of the playing style that brought them wins over respectable European teams in recent seasons, especially in home games. Over the last season alone, Celtic and Spartak fall at Benfica's statium in the CL, and Leverkusen, Bordeaux and Fenerbahce followed in the EL during springtime. All these teams are stronger than Anderlecht, who should be the right opponent for them to continue raising their form after improved performances against Sporting (in the second half) and Pacos, reminiscent of their recent seasons' dynamic and attacking play that brought them some good European achievements ever since Jorge Jesus took charge. Anderlecht are Group C underdogs with a rather young team that lacks experience at the European level, and playing away is not their strong suit. This summer, most of the important players have left the club, so it's small wonder they are already trailing six points behind Standard. They've displayed a respectable goalscoring ability in the championship, as well as some defensive errors. None of Anderlecht center backs are over 23 years of age. They lack the necessary European experience and I believe that they will not be able to stop the home side's forward line led by Cardozo and Lima, who jointly scored 63 goals last season. In a match where the home team is at least a class above the visitors, with both teams better on the attack and relatively weak in defense, the advantage of this bet is that Benfica can take care of the over on their own, if their defense starts playing well by some miracle. I do not doubt their win at all, so 1.5-1.55 on the Eagles seems like a good combo material, and anything above 2.10 on an over win is a value bet. Details

It is a well known fact that Porto is the dominating force in the Portuguese league, as evidenced by only one defeat in their last 103 league games. Their home record is one of the best in Europe because they have not been defeated at the Dragao since 2008. Last season their home record stood at 14-1-0, with a goal difference of 38:5. They opened their account for the new season in the same fashion, with a convincing 3-0 win over Maritimo, which could have been even better if Porto had converted a few more of the great number of chances they created. Paulo Fonseca has the complete team at his disposal today, unlike the visitors' coach, a debutant in the first division, who will have to do without four players. Two of those four are the starting centre backs, so he needs to find how to replace the experienced duo. Last season, albeit in this calendar year, Porto won 5-0 at home after dominating throughout the match, which resulted in over 20 shots on Gil's goal and having 75% of the ball. The guests didn't get a single shot on Helton's goal in both last season games. Porto were impressive during the preseason, as well in the first three official games. They scored 3 goals in each of those games, but they came a bit short in their last game. Tonight, they will surely do better and the worst case scenario is that we get our stake back because even Gil Vicente's starting eleven wouldn't leave the Dragao with less than a 2 goal loss. So this is a "win or void" situation we have here. Details

Atletico-MG keep dancing on the edge and putting in an extra effort only when someone gets dangerously close, as is the case now that they've dropped below the line that will separate four teams from the rest of the league this December. Therefore, a win is an imperative today, and the key factors should be the home turf and absent players in the visiting team. The bookmakers are aware of this and the home team win odds are down, but there is another option that is worth a shot and judging by Atletico's results even better than a home team win in this case. This alternative is to bet on them to score more than one goal, irrespective of the final outcome. It is one year today since they last won 1-0 at home, which is the only result that goes in favor of betting on a win compared to the said alternative, while they played 2-2 no less than three times just in the last five games. In any case, the "Roosters" typically score more than one goal at home, as they've managed to do this in 23 out of 26 home games since the end of the last year.

There is probably no team in Brazil with one player standing apart and above his teammates like Coritiba with Alex. He did not even travel for this away match, even though he is not injured. The club doesn't want to risk another injury for him, as he is more needed for the next match where the winning odds and imperative are greater than today. These teams are both good at home, which supports the prediction - and this is confirmed by their h2h - as the visitors always came back empty-handed in recent seasons. Other than Alex, several more players will be missing today in all lines, including defensive midfielder Junior Urso and the important defensive pair Leandro Almeida and Victor Ferraz. Because of this, the Coritiba defense will feature three players with only eight matches played in total between them.

In the last home game, Ronaldinho scored twice from free kicks, and he should have plenty of chances today since the referee for this match is Bezerra, who is ranked second by the number of fouls. The odds at 1.88 seem high, and they shouldn't be much higher than the ones for the home team win, while the only absent player for Atletico is Tardelli. Details