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Chicago and Indiana are ranked at the 7th and 8th place, with 38-40. Miami are under the line with 37-40, Charlotte right behind with 36-42. Whoever loses this game can kiss goodbye their chance for the playoff. Charlotte have to play Boston still, and will travel to Milwaukee and Atlanta. All three teams are fighting for something. Miami will have to face Toronto and Washington on the road, the two are fighting for the third place, and then they have Cleveland and Washington at home. So, it's hard to tell who's got the tougher schedule, Charlotte or Miami.
This is basically a playoff match in a regular season, and we'll go under 207 points. They played four duels this season so far, one in the pre-season ended at 184, the only one in Charlote at 173. I have to explain the 208 one - Miami were bursting with confidence after beating Cleveland two times in three days, and one quarter had 68 points (none of the other 11 periods in their three duels went over 59, one had 59 in that same game, and nothing else over 51). Miami's first scorer was Waiters with 24 points, but he's out today. Miami and Charlotte played the playoff last season, the first two in Miami at 220, then all the other five under 200. Three in Charlote 176, 174, 187. Miami had 25 unders in the road games this season, one exactly at 207 and 12 overs, Of those 13 that weren't under, most of them were irrelevant, like against Houston, Lakers, Washington, Brooklyn, Sacramento, two against Boston who are the first team of the East, when they allowed 120. The only big one that stands out and is hard to explain was the one against the best defense of the league, 221 against Utah. But that's one of 38. The main thing here is that Miami aren't as talented offensively as most of the league, and they've got no Waiters today, and Charlotte's defense were great when guarding Dragić (22p, 6/13; 5p 2/11; 14p, 4/12) and Whiteside (20p, 8/11; 8p, 4/7; 10p, 4/7), Miami's key players. The margin is this high because Charlotte have a bunch of crazy numbers at home, but with a detailed analysis, it's easy to point out the games against Phoenix, Cleveland, Denver, Golden State, Sacramento, some blowout games, a bunch of them irrelevant for today. So, those 19 unders and 20 overs don't really look that bad. Their home game against Miami went at 173, and comparing that with similar quality, there's Detroit at 201 and 164, Indiana 222 and 188, both blowouts, Atlanta 195 and 196 (the most relevant opponent), Toronto 191 and 224, Memphis 195, Portland 192, Dallas 184... For me, this game will end under 200 points and it should be picked. Details

Four straight defeats have set off all kinds of alarms in Brescia and lowered the expectations. They cannot complaicete this game. We want to be aggressive against Vaserta and we need good approach. That's what their coach said.
They conceded 68 to Venezia and 77 to Sassari in Cup finals and limited Sassari to 48 earlier. One of the key defenders Moss is back and they will do well defense-wise.
The main reason for this pick is Caserta. They were a team with 78 points on average with Sosa and without Sosa, their average is 67. Sosa scored 28 in the first one.
Last week they got limited to 58 against Venezia and Bostic, who is very important, won't play today.
The last 8 away games are: 71, Trento 66, Pistoia 64, Reggio 76, Sassari 77 (lost 18), Brindisi 72 (izgubili 28), Torino 77, Venezia 70. Out of all those numbers Sosa (19,3p, 5,9a, 32 minutes ) didn't play only against Capo. That means they were weak away even with him. Details

Goppingen sailed through the group and apart from the first round when they saved 0-6 against Granollers, did very convincingly. They beat Porto 31-27 away and the odds are this high here only because they don't need anything while Porto do. For Porto to go through, they need a 15-goal difference and some other results to suit them. That is nearly impossible to happen.
Goppingen were always strong home and they want to win here. They are basically complete, in fine form, much better than in the first half of the season and this is a sure win for me. Porto lost the key game to Granollers by 11, they lost to Midtjylland by 3 and Goppingen beat both of those easily. Details

CSKA are playing a relevant game and that is a guarantee they will give their 100%, and when they do, there aren't many teams in VTB who could stand a chance. True, even a defeat by 15 points will bring them the top position, but Itoudis will not lose less here, I am 100% sure of that. They have a clear situation in Euroleague and they do not have to rest their players, they played their last game on Friday and made a lot of rotations and easily defeated UNICS, so I expect them to give their best here. The situation is different for Khimki, they need to win by over 16 for the top position, and that is unreal. They suffered the same amount of defeats as Zenit, and they are fighting for the second position. They will face Zenit in 10 days, and considering the defeat at St. Petersburg, even if they defeat CSKA today, they will still have to defeat Zenit. With all that, before Zenit they will face Novgorod on Sunday. All of this is important because I am not sure Ivanovic will force Sved in these conditions today. Sved with 30 points here is no guarantee they will win, he was out in the first head-to-head and they easily lost. My expectations are over around 10 points of difference, whether Sved plays or not. If the information comes out that he is out, we just need to increase the stake.
Khimki's frontcourt line is bad, CSKA will dominate rebounds, their defenses are very different, and Khimki can only dream of CSKA's chemistry.
These odds on CSKA are the result of Khimki's wins at UNICS and Loko. UNICS are on a ten game losing run in Euroleague and 7 of the last 9 in the VTB League, Loko had 4-5 lead in the end, but then Sved played like Kobe Bryant. He scored around 60 points combined in both games. Details

UNICS lost 10 straight games in the Euroleague, 7 of the last 9 in the VTB league. Their form is horrible, there are clearly some problems within the team (Clark situation), they added another person to the coaching staff, and that is always debatable.
They are currently in the fifth position, they can reach a Top 4 position and home court advantage if they create big sensations in the remaining games, and since it is much better to be fifth than sixth, because they avoid CSKA (important for the hunt for Euroleague), then UNICS have more interest to lose here than win. Saratov are chasing after their last train to play-off. Statements from the club say that the team is fited up, the impression is they believe they will win. They have been bad away this season, but the team has been changed a lot in the last couple of months, they have the quality, and if UNICS offer them a chance, Saratov are capable of taking it.
Let's just say that UNICS acquired center Klimenko, who is not playing much, from Saratov... Details

BSV have quality defense, with which they defeated Kiel 24-21, but at the same time they lack width in offense and they like playing longer attacks. Their strong home games during the season looked as follows: Skjern 53, Aalborg 49, Barca 50, Kiel 53, Flensburg 44. At Wisla they played at 53, at home there was a 33-24 blowout.
Szeged played at 46 goals at Meshkov the other day, before that 54 at Lowen, 52 at Kielce, 48 at Meshkov, 50 at kristianstad, 50 at Zagreb, while 56 at Celje and 57 at Vardar (at home 44 against them) are not minuses in my opinion because of the way those two teams play, especially at home. In the situation when every goal counts, when the home team have thin backfield line, and solid defense, and the away team are strong, this is not a game for over 55 goals. Details

Coburg recently lost at home to Lemgo, and that was the same Lemgo Goppingen beat at home last round. If you ask me, the 1.55 at Goppingen is definitely worth taking, they're underestimated a bit too much.
Their away games look terrible, but this Goppingen are a lot better than in the first part of the season, with two away wins they have against Minden and Stuttgart, the only fail against Lemgo in which they were leading. The other away defeats are against Magdeburg, Fuchse, Flensburg, Lown, Kiel, Melsungen, Hannover, Leipzig, so nothing unexpected.
Coburg at home beat Balingen and Bergischer, and the derby against Erlangen. The first head-to-head was +4 for Goppingen with -2 at half-time and without Kenuel.
The handicap is at 1.5 from nine wins in the league, Goppingen won eight over that, only one goal of difference was at home against Leipzig. Coburg lost 18 games, out of which 17 with over one goal of difference.
If we take a look at Goppingen's matches against five teams who are in the relegation zone: Coburg, Bergischer, Stuttgart, Lemgo and Balingen, then we see the reason to take it: -6 wins, one draw and the defeat in Lemgo with one point of difference. Out of that, away games: Minden 32-25 and Stuttgart 35-29. Details

Barcelona are currently with no confidence, and when they play a top game, Llull happens at the last second. The lack of confidence is seen in the offense. Rice is out of everything, defensively they're showing good things, but I think they can lay confidence in that. Here we'll go for a half-time under at 77.5.
They played two head-to-heads so far, the league one at 70 points (Joventut 39-31), the Catalonian league finals, which is an introduction to the start of the season, 59 points (Barca 36-23).
In the last 11 league games Barca have four overs and seven unders. The overs are explainable: beating Zs by Zaragoza, Manresa and Obradorio 51-34, 55-41, 55-40 and the away game against Real. So, nothing is a minus for today's pick, these three teams are in the relegation zone.
In Euroleague in the last 12 games they have 10 unders, the overs were Milano and the home falling apart against Basconia. Again, nothing important for today. Under Diego Ocampo, Joventut have improved in the defense. And the numerous head-to-heads from previous seasons were at small numbers.
Joventut stood up to Unicaja, Valencia, they played at home against Real, so the assumption is that they won't fall apart here, which suggests the rise of quota for Barca. Joventut have been in a half-time under in the last five home league games (Estudiantes 75, Murcia 62, Andorra 70, Real 75, Zaragoza 76). Out of the last 11 in the league they have two overs, the away games against Fuenlabrada and Gran Canaria, totally unimportant for today. The last week it was 67 against Unicaja.
And for the end, as a little plus, I'll add that Bartzokas left Faverani out of the team, which is a plus for the defense becaue with him in the game, the defense never made it (the second quarter against Dacka a few days ago 9-32, the remaining three at 24, 30 and 28 points). Details

In the last 13 games (Europe and 888liga), GOG have 10 overs (one at 57, two at 56, one out of the three was a big fight for playoffs with Ribe and the 29-27 in not the problem, the other one at 57 was against Fuchse, where they rested the right back and weakened the offense). Looking at just home games and the league, in the last 8 they have 7 overs and 56 against Ribe, which was already explained. Last round they are 32-28 away against Sonderjyske in the very important playoff game. They secured the playoffs and since Skaderborg beat Tonder, they are under no pressure now too.
Skadnerborg are not that convincing when it comes to overs but they are under no pressure and have 60, 61 and 60 goals in the visits to Arhus, Skjern and Holstebro (3 out of 4 away games after the winter break). I don't see this staying under 60 goals, given their game style (similar to GOG's, their coach will take over at GOG next summer. Details

Efes want a response after the horror against Brose. They went 18-for-45 from for two, 6-for-26 from the three point range and 14-for-22 in free throws. That was their worst offensive performance of the season which will not happen today, for more than one reason. First of all, that wasn't real Efes, second of all, Brose's defense cannot be compared to Demir's and third, Efes will be motivated. They need this win because they are in a race for the top spot with Fener.
The first h2h finished with a 24-point difference, last season 25 and 30. Demir are in horrible form with 7 straight defeats, one of which was in overtime to second to last Balik home. They have the defeat by 24 to Banivt, by 19 to Galta, by 22 to Darussafaka. Efes are better than all those teams at the moment and I think Perasovic's team will prove that here. Details

A very important game is being played today in Zaragoza. These teams are fighting to stay in the league, Obradorio are 6-16, CAI 7-15. Today, we will try with an under because this is not a game for 160 points. Obradorio won the first h2h 80-63 (37-31 at HT).
Obradorio have been one of the most defense-oriented teams in the league for years while Fernandez was there. Given the injuries, the importance of the game and the the fact they play in Zaragoza, this margin makes no sense. It's set according to Zaragoza's last games but the visit in Fuenlabrada, the home game against Baskonia, the visit to Valencia and the home team against crazy Betis have nothing to do with Obradorio.
The last 6 h2h games were well under this margin. Zaragoza changed the coach just before this game and the new coach talked only about defense and limiting opponents to a smaller number of points. Also, one of their key offense-end players is injured today and might not play.
Even lead by the old coach, they have 7 unders and 4 overs at 161,5 margin home, just like Obradorio away. Those 4 overs for Obradorio were all in games that fell apart (Real, Barca, fast-paced Baskonia and Andorra). None of those games is relevant today. Zaragoza won't be fast and the game won't fall apart.
Zaragoza had 4 home overs against Baskonia, Andorra, Betis and Murcia. All of those have an explanation and have nothing to do with today's game. Details

Noorteliiga are, with 0-14 record, the last-placed team in the league, and it consists mostly of boys from 16 to 19 years of age, with the exception of one player who is 21. In their 14 defeats they have over -400 points difference. They faced Parnu three times, twice in the Cup, 70-110 at home, 101-65 away. The one in the league was played at Parnu and finished 101-55. They played their only 2 games in February at Valga and Rapla, lost by 55 and 26. Parnu won at Valga by 10 and 11, and Rapla by 15. Noorteliiga lost their last away game by 32 at Tarvas, whom Parnu defeat by 11 and 23. Parnu are fighting for the third position, they are coming here after a good game against rivals Rapla (64-49). They will be an insurmountable obstacle for the home team. In the only league game, two foreigners scored 41 point for Parnu, Okereafor and Volkus. They are no longer here and that may be a minus for them, but they acquired Bubalo, who fit in great and has 16,6 pts and 8,3 rebounds in 10 games. All of this suggests that the result here cannot be under around 30 point difference. This parlay is also available at bet365 at the same margin. Details