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Maccabi knocked out the Russian St. Petersburg by playing 23-25 in Russia, and then at home 28-23. Then against the Hungarian Tatabanya they were equals for 50 minutes, they lost 27-24. So, this is not a weak team, they have a beginning and an end, a few good defenders, a great coach, and I expect they will make the Danes' life worse to a point.
We'll go after Kolding under 28.5 because Kolding have been a lot more defense-oriented lately, but that's not the handball from the start of the season. Ortega noticed that it's not going to work to go the Spanish way, so he turned to defense who have been Kolding's trademark for years, with veterans like Hvidt, Jorgensen, Viudes; Stenmalm and Bjornshauge fit in well too. The offense lasts longer and automatically those are less efficient games. Last one in Denmark against the fast Holstebro 23-24, before than with Magdeburg 23-23, at two Cup games they recorded 23 and 24. Not comparable, but in two against Ademar in the EHF playoffs they went to 27 in Spain and 25 at home. In the last 10 games, Kolding went over 28 in a single one, 29-29 against Mors who play the entire match almost entirely without a goalkeeper, with the seventh player.
In away games in the last nine they were under 28.5, and in the last six they have five under 25.5, where some teams like Skandeborg and Sonderjsyke (recorded 25) can fit into the same sentence with Maccabi.
Today the first right defender Igropulo is questionable, Antonio Garcia is out, so those circumstances also favor this bet. Details

The Turks are playing the Cup play-off, top 8 teams, in Ankara. The pairs were determined by putting all teams in the same box, no seeds, so we have a clash between 1st Fener and second-placed Efes already in the quarter-final. And also a clash between Yesil and Karsiyaka. Yesil are currently 8th in the league with 8-10 record, while Karsiyaka are 7th with 10-8. Their head-to-head was played at Karsiyaka and ended 80-58, with 35-20 at halftime. Yesil were without their top scorer Ledo, but with Mahalbasic and Ulubay. The first one went to Spain, the second one to Darussafaka and Ledo has recovered.
Yesil are lead by Trifunovic and they are a more defensively oriented team in an otherwise offensively oriented Turkish league with a lot of Americans. We will go for the 77.5 under at halftime. Yesil have gone under that in the last 13 league games, and the latest were well under that: Fener 62, Trabzon 67, Gaziantep 72, Banvit 74, Tofas 76, Best Balik 68 etc. Karsiyaka are on a three game losing run, by 10 to Frankfurt in the Champions League play-off, and two painful defeats in the league, at home to Gaziantep and at Trabzon, their direct rivals in the play-off battle. Coach Markovic's position is insecure, and according to the news from Turkey, he will be sacked if they lose today. They are under pressure, they are expected to win and there is no dilemma that they will push hard. And they can do that under Markovic.
Their numbers are not as strong as Yesil's 13, but they do have a certain sample: Trabzon 62, Tofas 72, Best Balk 75, Demir 73, Yesil 55, Usak 77, TED Ankara 65, Trabzon 68...
You might have guessed what I am going for, these are all games against teams from the bottom of the league table. Karsiyaka recorded overs against Fener, Galata, Darussafaka, Besiktas and Efes, which are all top teams. Those halftimes gravitated toward 90, the others not at all. Considering the circumstances, I believe today's game will be under 78 points. Details

Fuenlabrada are horrible on the road (0-3 Eurocup, 3-6 ABA League). I think this is a sure win for Granca but this is a knock-out game and I expect visitors to put up a fight at least to some extent. They are under no pressure, unlike the home team.
The big difference between these teams is defense quality. When dedicated and motivated, Granca are a top-level team. I'll try to go with Fuenlabrada at under 37,5 in the first half. Grance didn't allow that many to Real, Baskonia, Valencia, Cedevita. They allowed Fuenlabrada 30 in the first game. Last week, Granca allowed 28 to Lokomotiv in the first half and then 15, 7, 16 in the next three. They went on to allow 71 to Unicaja (31 by HT).
Fuenlabrada had their last road game against Unicaja and hit 35 by HT. The last European game was against Lokomotiv (32), before that Murcia (31). Those are the two in Top 16. Before that, they had Bilbao at 37, and productive games against Khimki, Rytas and Alba. We have all the circumstances for a tough game today. Details

In the game of the 16th round between Gaziantep and Yesil, we'll go for an under of the away team in the first half. The reasons are Gaziantep's excellent shape, Yesil's problems and the importance of the game in the fight for the playoffs. Gaziantep are ninth with a 6-9 record, Yesil are eighth with 7-8. Gaziantep would be two wins behind if they lose, and their record in head-to-heads would be 0-2.
The home team led by the defensively oriented coach Stefanos Dedas, tied three wins in the league, and out of 14 home games this season they allowed over 37.5 only three times, out of which none of the games are relevant for today. Fener recorded 48, but that has nothing to do with today, and twice they allowed 38 points in European matches. They were losing to Peja 38-35, and then they won with 18 goals of difference in the end (they allowed 28 in the second half). They were leading against Mures with 51-38, and by the end they pulverized them with 100-79. A few days ago against Chalon it was 57-37.
What's more important to mention is that out of eight league games they allowed the aforementioned only to Fener. Karsiyaka remained at 35, Galatasaray at 37, Banvit at 26, Efes at 35, Istanbul in the last round at 26.
The first head-to-head against Yesil has no importance. It was in the first round, Gazitenp didn't form their team properly yet, and Yesil at the time recorded 50 points by the trio Ledo - Ulubay - Mahalbasic. Now none of them are present. Ledo is injured, Mahalbasic is in Sevilla, and Ulabaya (wing player, 12.9 points on average, 35 minutes in game) was stolen by Darusafaka.
Yesil are in a negative run. They lost six out of last eight games, and in those eight they recorded 33 against Efes, 20 against Karsiyaka, 36 at home against Darusafaka, 31 in an away game against Galatasaray, 50 against Demir at home, 32 in an away game against bottom-table Best Balik, 36 at home against Tofas, and in the last round in an away game 37 against Banvit (Ulubay was playing).
Considering the opposite state of form and shape in these two teams, the roster problems of the away team and the importance of the game, a solid option is an under of the away team. Details

Hats off to what Saudi Arabia did against Croatia and Belarus but Germany is simply at a different level. I expect them to trash their opponents today. They have no mercy, play perfect defense, have two top goal keepers and there is no holding back on that team. They won the first half against Chile 17-6, and had an 18-8 lead against Arabia in Doha at World Championship (36-19). The Saudis are not the same team but their key players are the same. That's not even important though, because they cannot be compared to Germany. They are without left handed players at right back, they have no one over 190 cm tall and I really don't know how they will score today.
Germany had 11 against Chile at half time, 5 against Hungary, 6 and 8 against Austria and Romania in test games respectfully. I don't expect anything under 9-10 here. Details

Minden are one of the most defense-oriented teams in the league (score 25,2 points on average per game, and play at 53 goals on average). On top of that, this is a local derby match in which Lemgo is very motivated because of the defeat in the first head-to-head match. That is why we don't expect many goals here. The first finished at 27-26 (half time at 14-10). Minden's last two home games were against Wetzlar 25-27 (12-13) and Gummersbach 26-23 (10-12). When it comes to teams fighting to stay in the league, they have a big over in Sttutgart, who might not be relevant because Stuttgart have not played a good defense in the last few weeks. Also, they don't know how to push the 7th player. Lemgo mostly use that in the second halves when they see their chances dropping. That happened against Bergischer where they had a 13-8 lead at half time. Minden played Coburg home at 23-20, 12-7, Lemgo home with Coburg at 32-22, 15-10. Minden played Bergischer away 25-27, 12-14. Minden played Balingen away 23-23, 12-12. Lemgo lost to Belingen home 23-20 (10-10). They have 29-28 against Bergischer away recently with 8-13 at half time. All those numbers, circumstances, game style, the fact this is a derby match and the importance of the game suggest this will not be very productive. I'll try and go with the 27,5 at half time because Lemgo could use the 7th player in the second half and I don't want the game to develop like the one against Berischer, who are much faster than Minden. Details

Statistically, there is no base for this tip but Coburg will play this after 42 against Magdeburg and 35 against Flensburg. Fuchse can be compared with those teams and it's realistic to expect Fuchse at over 30 goals. In the first h2h, Fuchse scored 29 when they played without top scorer Nenadic. He is there now and Petkovic, the new coach, is on the bench. He is asking for a faster pace and is known as an offensive-oriented coach. Coburg is without the key defensive figure, they struggle with injuries and I don't see a way for them to do anything serious here. If Fuchse managed to go over 30 with much better teams like Melsungen and Goppingen here, they will manage to do that today. Details

The last five first halves Kiel played: Flensburg away 17-13, Leipzig home 18-12, Melsungen away 18-10, Wisla home 15-9, Magdeburg home 17-8. The visits to Coburg (17-11), Minden (18-12), Bergiscger (18-12), Erlangen (13-11) are relevant for this game. As you can see, Kiel created a big lead by half time in those games and the same will happen today since they are extremely motivated. It might seem odd but Kiel have not been at the Cup finals for 3 years and they have waited for this a long time. They will trash their opponents by half time. Friesenheim struggle in the second league and are no longer that team which knocked out Gummersbach and Bietigheim. Their both right backs are now out, they have a lot of problems with the team and stand no chance here. Kiel's defense will not give them anything at the beginning - maybe in the second half. Details

The first head-to-head was 33-31 for Midtjylland. They allow 27.2 on average, 27.6 at home. In all nine home games (seven in the league, one in the Cup, one in EHF) they allowed over 25.5.
Ribe are on an average of 26.2. From seven away games, in five they recorded over 25.5. It was under in a fiasco against Mors (16-22) at the start of the season, and in the last match against the best defense of the league, BSV (24-22) where, if we're to believe their coach, they missed a lot of chances and can only blame themselves for the defeat. Those matches have nothing to do with what we will see today; Midtjylland are an offensive team, Ribe are offensivelly a lot better than they were last season, they have backs who can stand up to the home defense, and I expect them over 25 here. Details