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Zenit have been improving with each week, they are going after the top position in the group, they haven't played over the weekend and they are coming here rested. At their last two away games they defeated Bayern, Murcia and Enisey, and Buducnost lost by 11 to Murcia (lost the second half by 17 points), and lost by 24 against Bayern and Unicaja. Those were games in ideal circumstances, while they were complete and still had a chance in the group. Today they don't stand a chance in the group, last weekend they lost at MZT by conceding 96, and today they will be without their tall starters James and Savovic. That means they are down to Subotic and Nikolic in the paint. With that, over the weekend they will face Zvezda in the ABA League and Zouros will spare players important for that game, he also announce he will use some youngsters. In these circumstances, I really cannot see what Buducnost can play against the Russians who are getting better and better. Details

If this was in one of the previous seasons, with Pešić on Bayern's bench and Unicaja in their Euroleague form, Unicaja having 79.5 margin might have made sense. Not like this.
Bayern are better defensively now, Đorđević brought much more aggressiveness, and Redding as two and Lučić as three benefits them and they're using it. They reduced this same Unicaja in Malaga at 62 points, after allowing 22 in the first period, they didn't allow over 14 in the next three.
Bayern allowed 80 or more points in four of 16 official games this season, twice to Zenit, which is irrelevant here, and once in their debacle against Bamberg, again irrelevant, and once home to Murcia, which is totally irrelevant because it happened after they were up by 20 in three periods, and then they relaxed, allowing Murcia 31 in the last period.
Unicaja are coming after hitting 95 against Barcelona, 93 against Budućnost, 85 against Bilbao, and 93 against Zenit. That's why this margin. All irrelevant, and here's why - they played overtime against Barcelona, without it it was 78 (7 in the last minute). Budućnost don't stand a chance and are just doing the job in the group, Bilbao aren't that great defensively so the match fell apart, and with Zenit they were just hitting it. And all four were home matches. In the last three road games, Unicaja hit 79 against Joventut, 75 against Murcia, and 73 against Canarias, so those numbers are more of a measure. Before that, they played road games against the defensively oriented Real and Fuenlabrada, and Budućnost, who can't match anyone in this group, so those matches aren't relevant for this matchup. Details

Brose deserved much more than these 2-6 they currently have and that is why they are underestimated, and Zalgiris are given the favorites status. In my opinion, this is at least an even game, but I do expect the Germans to win. I will try to go for Zalgiris under 80 points, because I think they are not a team for high numbers, and at the same time we have Brose who are much better defensively in away games, somewhat slower at home. In away games, they concede 81 to Baskonia, 72 to Darussafaka, 78 to Barcelona and 67 to Fenerbahce.
Zalgiris went over 80 at three of eight games, the last three, before that they were under for five straight games (one at 80). There are reasons for those three games, but I won't even try to explain the 87 against Galatasaray because the Turks have the worst defense in Euroleague. At CSKA they went to high numbers because the Russians always take games to high possession, and 86-92 at Barcelona could be the only statistical downside to this bet, but those that follow basketball know that Zalgiris play great at Barcelona for years now, they even won games and they were always at a high number of points. Even when Barca had Pascual on the bench.
Their head-to-head here last season ended 75-73 for the Lithuanians, and in Germany they were limited to 63. The lineups are similar, the Germans have basically an identical team, except Wanamaker left (but that weakened their offense, not defense). Because of all of this, it is more than realistic to expect the Lithuanians under 80. Details

I was choosing between the handicap at Granca and over 94 but I+ll go with the handicap because it sometimes happened that they won in handicap but wouldn't go near 100 points. Things are pretty clear on the Spanish team this season. Out of 10 wins in official games, just two weren't by over 15 points. The first one was in Supercup against Laboral in Vitotia and the second one was the win over Obradorio in Santiago. They won that 90-87 after making up for the 19-point deficit from half time. The last 8 games finished as follows: Barcelona 20, Cedevita 25, Novgorod 26, Fuenlabrada 51, Murcia 19, Lietkabelis 19, Real Betis 20, MZT 23. When Granca win, it's convincing. That is how they game are. The bench can keep the difference up and they do not decline. Now, they are motivated because of the last two defeats and they want to secure the top spot. They beat the Russians away and I don't see a reason for that not to happen again. On the other hand, Novgorod rely on shooting, they are offense-oriented but without proper defense. I saw them in Zagreb against Cedevita. Strebkov scored 20 in the first half and they were 15 points up. He hit 1 point in the second half and they lost by 15. When it comes to rebounding, they cannot stand up to Spaniards, who will take the easy points away from them. They lost by 23 to UNICS after winning the last quarter by 7, to Lokomotiv by 27 away, Zenit away by 13. Details

Astana have the most inefficient offense of the league beside the league rookie Perm, averaging at 72. That would've been even lower if not for games against CSKA (76-92) and Saratov (83-78) which are irrelevant for this. In two matches against the playoff rivals, Astana had 66-64 against Riga, 67-84 against Kalev. They also lost a home game to UNICS, 68-84. They rarely went over 80 in the preseason, too, only against the offensively oriented Lithuanians Nevezis, Juventus and Prienai, while they stayed under in all three games in the last pre-season tournament (Ventspils 80, Surgut 76, Parma 65). The defense became the main key to their game since the Greek coach took the lead.
Now they have to host the good Yenisey who allowed 72 and 66 in the away games against Khimki and Lokomotiv, who are better than they were last year, who count on the playoffs, who rested their players in Europe this week so they'd be ready for this match, and who are very motivated. They allowed over 80 in the VTB league to CSKA, UNICS, and Novgorod (99-93), but none of those matches are relevant for this. Last year when Astana were run Details

Buducnost played Bayern at 44-68 and Unicaja at 62-86 in the previous two home games. This is a do or die game for them. They are 0-4 and only a win today would leave them in the race. They in ABA league to bottom-table Karpos and hit just 71 point. There were a lot of problems in their offense. The coach got sacked after that. Zouros, a Greek coach took over and dedicated his first press conference to the importance of defense.
He will not be there today - his assistant will. He said that the goal of this game is to limit the Spaniard to as little points as possible. They stand no chance in any attempt to outrun Campazza, Baron and others.
On the other hand, Murcia have big problems and they are expected to respond today. They allowed Barcelona 99 points and are now to play for the next round. I'm pretty sure their defense will be better today. In two previous Eurocup games, they beat Unicaja on account of defense and limited Zenit to 74 points. Given the circumstances, I don't think this will finish at 160 points. Details

In the VTB League Lokomotiv played against Jenisej at 134 points, Khimki at 138, Parma in blowout at 147 and Novgorod, who can't be defended, at 159 points (93-66). In Eurocup they were at 137 against Valencia, 137 against superfast Ulm, 136 against Olimpia and 169 against Hapoel in a game where they didn't stand a chance. If we would sum that up and remove the unimportant matches for this pick (with Novgorod and Hapoel, and the blowout in the league rookies Parma who were also below the margin), then all other of Lokomotiv's games are under 140 points.
Today we'll go looking for under 153. The record in the league and the club situation suggest they will be fully focused, the coach has been sacked, the players are aware of the difficulty of the situation. Offensively they are a lot more modest than last season when they had Randolph and Delaney. Two head-to-heads last season with Minsk were at 130 and 135 points.
Minsk are a similar team like they were last season, with the same coach. I'd even say their defense is somewhat better. They have a number of unimportant matches for this pick, like Pradubice, Siauliaij, Saratov. In four matches of the Champions League qualifications they played against Israeli at 138 and 136, Bulgarians at 138 and 130. In the first round against Zenit they ended at 129 points, while the two against Kalev and Riga, defensively modest teams, ended at 77-77. They fell apart against UNICS and that's not important.
Currently Lokomotiv are not capable of winning this with a huge difference, and even if they win, it's more likely going to be 80-60 than 95-75. Considering all of the circumstances, the match under seems like a good option. Details

PAO and Maccabi played twice this summer, one at 146, the second at 168 points. The first one was in Athens, in the tournament with Barcelona and CSKA, which used as a farewell party for Diamantidis and PAO were still in their best suit. That wasn't the case in Moscow and the Israeli offense had a more prominent role. Both teams changed coaches in the meantime. The Greeks continued in the same direction, but Maccabi made changes because their defense wasn't working. Their defense is a big part of their game now, and it looks like Hadar reduced Goudelock's authority, so he's not that wild in the offense anymore. Maccabi have three games that are completely irrelevant for this match, Milano, Galatasaray and Real, and they had 148 against Barcelona in the last one, and under 140 in the league against Ashod.
PAO went over only against Bamberg out of five Euroleague games, but Bamberg reach high numbers no matter who they play against at home, and the Greeks had four under the margin, the last one against Efes, 70-70.
With these circumstances, I don't think it's realistic to expect a match that will end over 160 points. Details

It is hard to decide here which option on the Spaniards to chose, but I think that is a sweet concern, since I don't give the Macedonians any chance. They lost the alst quarter and overtime 37-13 at Novgorod, Gran Canaria demolished the Russians 106-68, 15 at halftime. MZT was losing three quarters by 20 points at Lietkabelis, made a miraculous comeback, and then lost in the last second. Gran Canaria defeated the Lithuanians by 19, it was 35-14 already after the first quarter. MZT lost at home and conceded 89 to Cedevita, who came in a big crisis after releasing the Americans. and Granca defeated Cedevita 101-76, they were up by 15 at halftime.
A few days ago, MZT were losing to Olimpija by 15 five minutes before the end, and still made a comeback, but Olimpija are known for 'choking' this season, they lost four away ABA league games by one point. With everything mentioned, MZT are currently missing three important players, there is a chance some of them will be back, definitely not all 3.
MZT lost to Cibona at home, who lost by 30 to Canarias, and Gran Canaria, even though they lost to them at the start of the season, are a better team than Canarias. Buducnost are currently at 8-0 in the ABA league, but they lost to Unicaja at home by 20. Gran Canaria are currently a top 5 team in the ACB League, MZT are at the bottom of the ABA League and the difference in quality, performance, playing style is like you are playing a game at the first level or at the 4th level. Granca are not only several levels better, they are coming here with a run of winning five games by 19 or more points. Details

CSKA played a bad game last weekend at Saratov, where De Colo wasn't playing because he needed rest and Teodosic shot 1/15 three pointers. They got out of that, and then played much better at Piraeus, easily defeated Olympiacos even with Teodosic's 2/10 three pointers and De Colo's 5/16 two pointers. It is hard to believe that such two players can shoot below any level again, even more so because today they are going back to their real home, small arena where they train, and where they still haven't played this season, because they played all three VTB games away. I expect CSKA in their true form, and as such they defeated Zenit here 113-77 last season.
Zenit are coming here without two starters, Karasev and Timma, and while they can get Karasev's points from Toolson, they do not have a real substitute for Timma. The Latvian brings a lot for them in defense, rebounds and offense and they cannot compensate for that. With all this, their frontcourt line can hardly handle home team's, even if Mbakwe plays. They also have a long trip to Malaga to play against Unicaja on Wednesday, so I don't expect much from Zenit here. Details

The Serbians had over 50 goals in the last seven games, since Perić is defensively oriented. Both qualifier matches against Hungary for the WC went over. Perić is gone now, and his replacement Cvetković is more offensively oriented. He talks about modern handball, easy goals, speeding the game - and those are not just empty words. The Serbian team results when Cvetković was leading them were Sweden 29-37, Macedonia 32-28, Poland 23-35, Germany 35-35, Saudi Arabia 38-29, Norway 27-26, Brazil 30-32, Denmark 36-37 and Egypt 30-22. Cvetković had dangerous shooters then, Vujin, Ilić, Vučković... he's got even faster Zelenović, Šešeum and Nenadić today, and they can definitely do as he wants them to do. Also, the Serbians played a live game of the EC in Poland at the beginning of the year, 29-28, and missed a seven-meter shot for the tie. That was Perić and Biegler, both defensively oriented coaches. Today, it's Cvetković vs Dušebajev. The Polish coach is anything but defensively oriented, just look at their Olympic results. Even if they did focus on the defense, they don't have the players for it.
The final note, the Serbians want to practice their teamplay, they don't really care about the result, and are only focused on playing Belarus in Niš this weekend. That's what they're focused on, and they'll just play what Cvetković wants them to play here, so that's going to be an interesting match. There are a few other arguments working in favor of this duel, the Polish are a great team, they have Kielce's backcourt, the Serbs don't have a great goalie, or powerful defensive players like they used to, etc., etc. Details

Magdeburg's coach Weigert wants his players to fight and be passionate the same way they were against Kiel. Considering that they're drowning in the league and that this is quite a derby of Eastern Germany, I have no doubt his players will respond. In a friendly head-to-head against Fuchse, also here, they lost 23-21. Last season they were leading 20-11 in the 44th minute, it ended as a draw 24-24. They lost to Kiel 22-21, they showed some reaction after the Minen debacle. Here they have 21-21 against Leipzig, they have two against Lowen at 49 and 51 goals, they have an away game against Flensburg at 51 goals. Last season they played here against Flensburg at 23-23, against Fuchse 24-24, Lowen 23-24. There's a lot of grit and top defenses here. The teams are practically the same as last season.
Fuchse are arriving after 30-30 against Flensburg where they surprised a lot by playing seven to six. I'm not sure if they are going to force it today as well, but because of that I'll go with a middle bet, not with the maximum. Fuchse have behind them 45 goals against Erlangen, 46 and 47 against Chambery, 52 against Coburg, 46 at home against Kiel. They have great goalkeepers and top defense. Details

Bayern's defense this season has nothing to do with their defense from previous seasons. Djordjevic has definitely gotten it to the next level. Bayern allowed over 81 points in just one out of seven official games. They conceded 84 to Murcia with 17-31 for Murcia in the last quarter when everything was already settled. Fast paced Zenit got limited to 80 in Russia, Alba to 58, Oldenburg at 69 away...
Unicaja mostly recorded overs but they were well under in the two games against Zaragoza home and the last one against Canarias away. Those two are much more important than their games with Buducnost, Granca, Real and Fuenlabrada. Buducnost play at ABA League and cannot keep up with the ACB league team so Unicaja trashed them. Granca play bery fast, thye came to Malaga during crisis and Unicaja scored 52 in the second half. Granca's coach said that his team cannot recover after a bad start. Against Fuenlabrada, who have one of the worst defensive ends in Spain, They hit 98 points (17-for-25 from the three points range, which cannot happen again this season). They had Nedovic back then, just like against Granca. They do not have him here. He is their best offensive end player. The game with Real has nothing to do with this so there is no point in even mentioning it.
Unicaja cannot get this game productive with the players they have. I'm sure Bayern can limit them to under 80. Details