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Tofas could be better in the rest of the season than they were in the first part because they are not pressured with the EuroChallenge matches - that was a big burden on their thin roster. After two weeks of break, they defeated Telekom in the away game, and controlled the game beginning to end. They're very good on their own court, they won 6 out of 7 matches, including the one against Fenerbahce. Banvit are a thorn in their side, they lost 10 matches against them in a row, and Banvit won 77-76 here last season. At the moment, Banvit are worse in away than home games, 1-6 in the Eurocup away games says something. True, they have 6-1 in Beko League in the away games, but that's not the same as playing away against Usak, Olin, Aliaga... or Tofas. Banvit defeated Galaga and Efes in away matches, but both were dealing with big problems at the time, and I'm not sure they'd manage to do it if Efes were in their previous shape, or if Galata didn't have that many injured players. Tofas have Elon and Balazic in the frontcourt who can match Banvit. They also have a great wing Cetin who can play in any club in Turkey, and a lot will be depending on the back Denmon. If he has his day, and Buker and Stipcevic match Rowland to some degree, then Tofas will keep their head in this game for a while. So I take this handicap... Details

Laboral are currently a tragedy in every sense of the word, while Efes continue to get better. New coach Angleou obviously knows what he wants, he is talking about defense non stop, and about slower tempo. The win against Milan, who destroyed Fenerbahce last night, after Planinic scored a three pointer across the entire court gave the team a huge boost of confidence. The atmosphere at the practice the next day was great, the club decided to celebrate Planinic's achievement a bit - he was given a big cake with the number three written on it. That win meant a lot and that was very clear against Galatasaray. They were ahead from the start till the end and won easily, even without Erden and Hopson, who will miss the game today as well. It would be easier to replace Hopson, because Vasileiadis can play as much as necessary, regardless of how the other foreigners are doing, unlike in the Beko League, where more Turkish players have to be in the game. Bhelica, Gonlun, and Savanovic can deal with Laboral's back court, and Lucas, Planinic (scored 10 points against Galtasaray) Vasileiadis, and Balbay can slow Hurtel and the team from Vitoria, who are not playing defense, down. Efes definitely stand a chance, a much bigger one than the odds suggest. They have lost all chance in Top 16 against Barcelona, lost home in the last moments against Malaga, beat Milano and played a tied first half time against Panathinaikos, but couldn't keep up in the other half. Laboral lost 3 out of the last 4 games, they are struggling against tough defenses a lot - it was very obvious in the two games against the great Greek teams, who didn't have to try that hard to get their points in Vitoria. They are now facing a Greek coach with the same basketball philosophy... Details

We are all used to Pedoulakis's PAO to win games through defense and rarely through offense. The games against Olympiacos in which they scored some 60 points are the best evidence., and if you look at their four games in the Euroleague Top 16, where their form has significantly improved in comparison to the first part of the season, you can see that they scored 72 at Fener, 78 against Efes at home, 72 at Laboral, and 73 against Milan at home. Barca's defense is nowhere near any of the mentioned four teams and their opponents know that very well. In five games in last year's quarter-finals, PAO scored 53, 60, 65, 66 and 64 against Barcelona. They improved their offense a bit as Fotsis, Mavrokefalides and Pappas arrived, but these were not the players for 15 points per game, so PAO continued playing their way. I think that this should be another tough game as such a derby cannot result in a beauty of a game. Barcelona was really well prepared for the away games in Istanbul and Piraeus, as the beat Fener and Oly through great defense and Pascual's good tactics. They will prepare for Panathinaikos even more easily due to their sterile offense and I'm pretty sure Pascual will limit the Greeks to under 72.5 points. Details

Real wiped the floor with the Israeli team in the last year's quarter-finals and got to Final Four with 3-0. The two games in Madrid were won by 24 and 12 points, and the one in Israel was also by 12 points. Not a lot has changed in Madrid since except they added Borousis and play with more ease. On the other hand, a lot has changed in Tel Aviv as they brought Ingles, Sofoklis, Rice and got Blu back. They became a better team, as reflected in their 12-2 in Euroleague so far, and 4-0 in Top 16. They have a run of 15 wins, 7 in Euroleague. Blatt changed some things in comparison to last season, such as switching Smith to power forward, which is where Caner-Medley used to play, albeit rather poorly. Blu and Ingles as forward and this Maccabi seems a lot better and Smith's form has also been improved. A lot of things tell me they could put up a better resistance against Real than many expect and I will try to take this huge handicap. Sofoklis is hard to defend against for all teams in Europe, Maccabi make the difference with him on the court, Smith as power forward will not be an easy match-up for Mirotić and Reyes. Ingles's form is a problem but he is too good player not to start playing well in a certain moment, Hickman can score 15-20 against anyone. Honestly, this is a very intriguing game and I believe Maccabi shouldn't lose by more than 10 points. Real were crushed in Moscow, then beat Unicaja with ease, but Llull will not get a 6/6 for three points in the first half again. The shot stopped in the second, Rudy Fernandez has been poor in the past few games, Mirotić is in a slight decline. Thus, there are several arguments for this bet. Details

After Fener beat Panathinaikos, coach Obradović pointed out defense as the cause, and sent a message that they need top level defense for the rest of the season. Mersin is not a benchmark of any kind, but after allowing 22 in the first quarter, they closed ranks and allowed only 41 more in the other 30 minutes of the game. They allowed Panathinaikos 28 in the first part, and then eased up in the second, allowing 22 in each. Defense will be crucial once again today, in my opinion, and with Hacket arriving, Milan have put together a team that can cover each other in any position. Banchi had that in Siena, and now in Milan he has the "real Siena", so to speak. Numbers are the best indicator of the rise in the quality of their defense: in the Top 16 they allowed 73 vs Panathinaikos, 51 at home vs Olympiacos, 76 at home vs Laboral and 61 away vs Efes. Three of those four, besides the unreliable Laboral, went way below 154.5 points. The only time in the last 10 games Milan went over that margin was vs Laboral, and in the Euroleague Laboral is also the only time they went over 150 points. The figures are different for Fener, with more overs, but they also have a different group and different style of opponents. The importance of this game is huge, as this is practically a clash of direct competitors for the 4th spot, and this has to influence the rhythm and tempo of the game. Milan do not have the system and fluidity of PAO with Diamantidis or Oly with Spanoulis, and I'm pointing this out because Fener have been playing vs Greeks in the last few weeks. On offense Milano are currently relying on individual performances, but their defense is improving all the time, and I think Fener can handle that. In any case, this is in my opinion a match on under 150 points. Possible free throw ending, so a smaller bet. Details

Had they been more concentrated and had Smtih played more for the team, Cedevite could have beaten the Turks last week. Today they have a chance for a rerun, and the injury of Besiktas's center Buckman additionally increases their chances. Those who understand Besiktas's roster will understand that this increases Cedevita's chances significantly as coach Kandemir has no real alternative for Buckman. Even with 21 points from Buckman, they barely beat Selcuk in the league last weekend and Selcuk are a team from relegation zone. Repeša has far more options and has to find a good defense for Lofton, and slow Perkins down a bit to do the job. They have been great at European away games as they beat Zaragoza, played a level game at Oldenburg, Bilbao, crushed Chalon and these are all team at leas on the same level as Besiktas. And that's when the Turks are complete and not significantly weakened like today. Details

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Dijon have an impressive 9-0 score at home in their league but their motivation in Europe is obviously not at the same level as they've lost 2 out of 4 and are hosting the better Turkish team with 0-2. The question of EuroChallenge ambition has been hanging about for a while, and coach Borg does not bother with today's game too much as he announced many rotations. On the other hand, Gaziantep's director has said they are talking about the organization of the Final Four after their win against Triumf. The motivation is unquestionable and the quality too. Zdovc is doing a great job and considering the many foreigners they have, it's no wonder they're doing even better in Europed as only three foreign players can play at the same time in Turkey. If they managed to beat Samar and Triumf away I see no reason for them not to beat Dijon who lost against that very same Triumf at home. Zdovc definitely has the squad that is capable of taking the points in France and the momentum and their form demand this bet to be taken. Details

Apart from the last game against Aliaga Petkim, the last-placed team in the league and the one with arguably the worst defense, Turk Telekom have earned all their win through hard defensive work. This defensive work has become even more important as Ertugrul Erdogan got on the bench and this Telekom should be expected in the second part of the season. Tofaš are a team with huge away problems but considering they've had a two-week break, they have prepared well for this match which is very important for the play-offs. They're direct rivals, Tofaš have won the first match and will have a hard time winning the upcoming games against Banvit, Fener, and Galata and I'm sure they'll go for this one head on. I expect a tense game and judging by both teams, I doubt it will go over 160 points. The margin is widely available and I'll go for SportingBet due to potential overtime. Details

There is absolutely no reason why Estudiantes should be favorites in this match. It's not the home court because they won 2 out of 8 matches in Madrid. Bruesa are an example of a team play, of how to make a good team from a humble line-up, and that's why Sito Alonso deserves a huge credit. Today, they have a chance to charge for everything they played well, and go to the King's Cup with a win. They have the quality to defeat Estudiantes, a good game, too, and the first striker Robinson is coming back. Their defense is among the best ones in the league, right next to Real and Valencia, and I'm convinced they'll know how to deal with the Students. Alonso has two great point-guards, so he has the advantage there, but Robinson is a special story. They're a bit weaker in the paint, but Doblas did a top notch job so far. They'll be completely motivated today, and I believe they'll win. Details

Gaziantep's wins in Europe lately proved they're a much better team than they seemed to be in the first part of the season. Zdovc turned everything upside down, ordered the team to focus on defense, and Ermis' signing is just the final touch. He managed to get their game to the next level, and I think they're the better team today. I think the game will be tied, and there's no reason to believe the home team will win with less difficulty, even though Usak did play well against teams at their level. But, Ermis can handle Warren, Bremer is there as well, there are a lot of options with Lorbek, White, Borovnjak, and Stevic. Usak, on the other hand, don't have that many options, and the defense is currently not at Gazintep's level either. Details

Five defeats in last eight games have mobilized the European champions and the black run somehow coincided with Petway's injury. He is coming back today, and even though it's not realistic to expect him to make the difference, I believe the Greek team are better than Kutxa. The Spaniards have defensive problems, they're not consistent in their game, and they had to save the win against Zaragoza last week, despite leading by 23-7. In comparison to that game, Hanga will certainly not play, San Emeterio probably as well, and these two are very important in defense. As things have been critical with them in the team, the situation is all the more dangerous now. They're two forwards which leaves them only with Nocioni whom the Greeks can block with constant rotations and he will not be able to handle it on his own. With recent additions, Bartzokas's team is really deep and they can attack Kutxa any way they want, and they will surely take the points if they play a bit more solid defense. And I have no doubts Spanoulis will finally play a good game. Details

Bayern did miserably against Real away, they should have lost against Partizan, and they would have if only Partizan had a bit more focus in the last quarter. Bayern didn't stand a chance in the first head to head game against Galatasaray away, and those were the toughest moments for Galatasaray this season. The great defender Hairston joined Galatasaray since then. I'm deliberately not mentioning their first part head to head game in Munich, it had no importance, Galatasaray played without Arroy... The situation is, however, much different today. Galatasaray lost to Kuban home, then played a tied game with virtually no centers against Real away, which is why I don't see the reason for Bayern to be put in the role of favorite that much. I expect the game to be tied at least, but I also believe that Ataman will get points in Germany. The line up he prepared for today can definitely stand up to Bayern in every aspect, starting with Mensah in the paint, forwards Hariston and Akyola, power forwards Erceg and Macvan, and defenders Arroy, Guler, and Arslan. Details

Partizan and Maccabi played a lot of head to head games the last few seasons. Blatt is still Maccabi's coach, Vjosevic is still leading Partizan, who are constantly playing the games at 120-130 points. Last week they played Bayern, a completely offense oriented team with ridiculous defense. 136 points were scored, 120 points in Zadar. Partizan ended at 127 points against Barcelona away, they went over only against Fenerbahche. Maccabi are very powerful in defense, I think the game will end at around 140 points scored, which is why I think this margin is good. Partizan can't keep up with it, but at the same time, their defense can hold Maccabi back a bit. They lost 70-66 the last time they played here. Details

Olimpija lost 4 of their last 5 games, lost with -25 vs Zvezda, and have to play without Vidović today. If Gailius, a very important cog in their machine, also doesn't appear, I don't see how they can win this game. Banvit have finally had some time to rest, haven't played in the league and have had ample time to fully prepare for this away game after the Hapoel debacle. Their away score in the Eurocup is a cause for concern (1-5), which is the reason why I'm sure they will play their best today. They are way above Olimpija in terms of quality, starting from Rowland who should dominate the game as Olimpija have a very poor point guard position, all the way up to Davis in the paint, who is also hard to parry. However, there is more, Itoudis also has Simmons, Mejia, and Marković, and quality simply must come up on top. Details

Both teams are at 0-2 and today's game will probably mean a farewell to hopes of advancing for the losing team. This is why I expect a tougher game. Karšiyaka are not the same team that started this season, Lyons was kicked off the team because of his clashes with the coach, they have a shallow rotation and Cantu experts have prepared for their guards and perimeter shooting. Of the five away games Karšiyaka have played so far in the Eurocup, most points were scored in Jerusalem, 154 vs Hapoel. I'm not counting several overtime periods vs Igokea after it ended 74-74. Cantu have mostly had overs at home, but after allowing Ulm to score 106 last week I doubt they will play such defense again soon. After all, Karšiyaka are not Ulm and can hardly follow a fast pace as their three foreigners have been playing over 35 minutes on average. Another very important factor to consider for under is Cantu's point guard Ragland, a great player who can play defense on Dixon, the alpha and omega of the Turkish team. It often happens that Karšiyaka remain at 60-ish points when their opponents limit Dixon, which might easily happen here as well. Details

Valenica lost against Kazan last week, and it was pretty much expected considering Doellman's injury. He got back against Manresa, scored 18 and will play today. They played a very poor game at Manresa, far below their standard this season and they still won it by 12 points. Perasović said they have to do better, that they missed the rhythm in offense and that they didn't get the points that they usually do. They are stronger at home than away, they crush their opponents here and I expect them to be in the right rhythm once again. Considering there are only 6 rounds and that they lost against the Russians, they have to go out in full force today as an eventual defeat would land them into trouble and they would be forced to win in Poland, which is something no one wants to face. Considering that Stelmet have 0-2 and are coming here without important player Zamajski and perhaps without Dragičević, their two pillars this season, I think their chances are minimal. Out of 6 European games in their arena, 5 were over this handicap - Ulm 9, Varese 15, Asvel 22, Paris 21, Oostende 25. Stelmet with Zamojski, but without Dragičević, was down by 8 against Oostende last week, I think Valencia will solve many of their problems by half-time today. Details

Zaragoza have had several games this season in which they had to show character and which they couldn't afford to lose. They crushed Estudiantes in Madid by some 30 points, they beat the Unicaja in Malaga, they beat Gravelines by 13 points, they played a tight game against another Euroleague team - Laboral in Vitoria last weekend. If we add their very close game against Real, then you can see they are a very good team. Today, they're facing another game with no margin for error as they have to beat Rytas after their two defeats against Cedevita and Besiktas, in order for them to stay in the competition to go through. They will have to dominate Rytas through their game in the paint as Sanikidze, Jones, Šermadini, Henk Norel, and Rudež are too much for the Lithuanian front court to handle. At the same, I expect Tabu, Llompart, Stefansson and Rol to do a good job against Cook, Seibutis and Gečevičius, which should be enough for a win. I've never been a fan of Aco Petrović and I think he's very overrated as a coach, and I'd describe their win against Cedevita as Cedevita defeating itself after gambling away a 14-point lead. The points will stay in Aragon today... Details

I don't like the fact that the Turks are underestimated so severely. Gaziantep have a 5-10 score in the Beko League but that's the legacy of Aziz Beikr, the coach who started this season. With Zdovc, the situation is completely different. In my opinion, this team absolutely has the quality for play-offs in Turkey and the arrival of Baris Ermis got them a very good player who immediately imposed himself as the first point guard. Zdovc has redesigned the team, now they're playing strong defense and have the width to handle everyone. When they were without Baris, and while Zdovc was still organizing his team, they lost by 10 points against Galatasaray, they matched Fener, Besiktas at home and Karsiyaka away, and these are the best teams in Turkey. Triumph are not any better than those teams, if at all. Another important thing, the Beko Leagu is currently on a break and Gaziantep won their last game against Venstpils by 11 points despite their 3/21 three-point efficiency, which is not something that is very likely to be repeated. Zdovc has had the time to prepare for this away game. They beat Samara in the first part of the season, before Samar lost their players and now Gaziantep are better than ever. This could and should be a very tight game which makes this handicap very attractive. Details

Real are the best team of the ACB league in every statistical segment this season, including defense. Their opponents average only 69.5. Everything Bruesa have achieved so far was based on tough defense and balanced offense, based on Jason Robinson, their forward who will almost certainly be absent today due to an injury. Without him Bruesa cannot score 75 vs Real, they would struggle to hit that score even with Robinson on the roster. Real have played 7 away games in the ACB league, and only alencia (75), Canarias (74) and Murcia (81), meaning three offense-focused teams, managed to score over 73.5 points vs Real, while the defensive Gran Canaria, Zaragoza, Joventut and Cajasol all stayed under. I expect Bruesa to go under 70 as well today. Details