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Estudiantes as they are now have nothing to do to what they were last season, and that's how we should see it. English, Gabriel, Kirksay, and Granger leaving changed the team, and they don't have the offensive force they had the last season. Just look at the fact that they didn't score over 80 points against anyone in the 9 rounds. They scored the most against the worst team of the league, Valladolid, 80-66. Today, they're hosting Canarias who have a reputation of an offensive and fast team, but they can also play a great defense. We've seen it last week against Real who scored 85 against them, mostly in the last 2-3 minutes. In 9 games, they conceded more in five, and less in four. They conceded more against Real, Barcelona, Joventut, Unicaja, and Fuenlabrada, all of them offensively stronger than Estudiantes. Today, Canarias have a good chance of winning the game, and I'm convinced they have a defense that can leave Estudiantes under 81.5. Details

Apart from Selcuk, Olin are the worst defense in the league and the team that play games with the most points. They play a fast game with lots of transitions and 3-pointers. Tofas showed that they can handle that. They've already played this season, also in Edirne, and Tofas won by 91-71 while the last period ended with 21-5. Even with a modest 26-point period, the game still had 162 points. Today's game also seems more like a game for 170 than 160 points and I intend to go for this with an appropriate stake. Olin have gone over 170 in the last 5, Tofas do not such a good stat but it's important they have the players that can cover that. Details

No team in France plays as fast as Nimes, that could be compared to what PSG are doing. Running throughout the entire 60 minutes and they go over 55 goals on a barely average shooting day. Today, they're facing an interesting team whose training sessions are managed by Noka Serdarušić which means a big emphasis on transition. Even though they aren't great in offense, with slightly aging Vasilakis and Stojanović, but they have the quality to see off their rivals. Today I'm expecting a game similar to the one they won against Selestat 31-30. Aix can keep up with the faster but with the slower pace as well, that 's the quality of their team. They played and against Dunkerque, who have the best defense in the league, and they lost the game 25-27 but with 30 goals in the second half. Their opponents today don't have such defense and it will be interesting to see how this turns out, I believe it will be a high-scoring affair. Details

Under Štombergas, Žalgiris have different ideas and concepts than under the defensively minded Greek Zouros that was their coach in the first part of the season. But even this Žalgiris can play superb defense, and how couldn't they with Javtokas in the line-up and even with Lavrinovič. The defense suffers the most when Šaras plays as his flamboyant style results in many lost balls and he is poor in defense. However, he doesn't get much playing time and this is a game that will go down to the wire. Their first head-to-head ended 72-61 with 27-27 in the first quarter which means there were 79 points in the next 3 periods. This Žalgiris played a 155-point game against Strasbourg last week with a last-moment 3-pointer. If we can rely on something it's Efes's defense when they're motivated. And this will be the case today after their debacle against Bamberg last week when they conceded 53 points in the second half. The importance of today's game is huge. Žalgiris and Bamberg have 3 wins, Efes and Armani have 4. If Efes were to lose this one and have 0-2 against Bamberg while the Germans are playing against Žalgiris at home while Efes are hosting the Real Madrid machine... A defeat here would endanger Efes's Top 16 position and this would be a real debacle in the easiest Euroleague group. Therefore, I expect maximum aggression in every attack in every possession. Head on from the start as there is no room for compromise. In Gordon, Efese have a man to guard Dentmo, Vasileiadis will get Pocius, Erden will have huge clashes in the paint with Javtokas and Lavrinovič and I can't really see this one turning into a basketball rhapsody. Details

Since Borac have consolidated, with Jani Čop taking over the bench and Ratko Nikolic becoming their pivot, Borac have been playing much better, but also much smarter. This team, with veterans such as Nikolić, Trivundža or Obradović, has neither the stamina nor strength to chase their opponents. Of their last four games, three were below today's margin of 52.5, given by several bookmakers. They beat Nexe 31-27 a few days ago, and Nexe are known as a team that plays fast. However, as that game was only two days ago, that is an added bonus for this bet. On the other side we have Babić's Meškov, who played two 40-goal games vs German Füchse, and a 53-goal game last week vs Vardar, a much faster and better team than Borac. Of their last 6 in the SEHA league, Meškov have 4 unders and two games at precisely 53 goals. I think today's match could be very similar to the one we saw between Borac and Zagreb, so a 50ish-goal game. I have no doubt that Borac will be looking to slow down the tempo of the game, while Meškov on the other hand don't even have players who would run around... Details

Chances of Chalon advancing to the next stage are hanging by a thread. Apart from having to win both tonight and then vs Cedevita in Zagreb in the last round game, they probably also need a +10 victory tonight, due to the first game lag (77-67). It is therefore easy to understand why they are commenting that they are already thinking of the Limoges game in the national championship. Bilbao are in a different situation. They want to advance to the second stage and are still holding their fate in their own hands, and should they win here, their next game is vs Oldenburg at home. Last week in Belgium their defense failed, but they managed to limit Estudiantes to 55 points after that. As they lost Bertans, an important part of their offense, they will be relying heavily on that defense today as well. They've demonstrated they can stop Chalon in the first game, all they need to do today is confirm that. I am convinced they will put up a quality performance on defense, not allowing their rival to reach 80 points. Details

Zadar's defense is not really reliable this season. They've concede 90+ against Cibona and Budućnos, 79 and 80 against defensive teams like Krka and Partizan and now they're facing what I think is the best team in the league. Zvezda have such offense that they often scored over 80 against the strong teams in the Euroleague and I don't see how they could go under 80 today. Without Ivanov Zadar's defense is even more shaky and they have no players to guard Marjanović and Katić, let alone Schilb or Jenkins. Zvezda's defense will get them lots of easy points and I believe they will be closer to 90 than 80. This margin is widely available. Details

Bruesa have been losing a lot of uncertain final moments of the games this season, against Canarias, at home against Obradoir and Joventut, against Barcelona... But, they're game is consistent, and their defense has a great quality. This season, they're conceding a lot less than last year, and only conceded more than 77,5 points twice. One in the debacle against Valencia, and in the penalty final moments of the game against Barcelona. Today, they're going to meet a team who are at the same level, who they can play with, and where they'll try to impose themselves with the defense. Manresa scored over 77,5 only once in the last six rounds, last week against Estudiantes (80-80). They had huge problems in their recent home games, were left at 64 against Laboral, and only 75 against the worst team of the league, Valladolid. Details

Aliaga aren't as bad as the ratio 1-7 tells. They lost their last two games in the last seconds, against the teams who are currently taking the play-off positions, Kolejliler and Usak. That same Usak knocked out Telekom in the away game yesterday, and Aliaga were leading with 10 points difference after the first period. The only time they won was against Galatasaray, which isn't a coincidence, etiher, because Dagli, Maroisvili and Gordon were playing then. They stabilized their defense, and conceded 70 points in the last two matches. Olin are the worst defense of the league at the same time, so if Aliaga puts a pressure on Washington, and they have to because that's the way to the win, they're definitely not without their chances here. Quite the opposite, they're a favorites in my opinion... Details

I'm convinced that the difference between these two teams isn't as big as the 1.25 odds would suggest for Lemgo. It makes no sense at all in my book, and it's mostly that big because of Lemgo's 35-35 against Hamburg. If they played again today, it would be +10 for HSV, I'd bet my life on it, but it's a different story about HSV. Lemgo and Balingen played in a way that the last minute decided in the last five games, while Lemgo are weaker in quality, but not the results. It's an extremely important game for the guests, far more than for Lemgo, and if the right back Hafner was ready, which he isn't and won't be playing, I'd go with a far bigger stake. Balingen can match Lemgo on many positions, they're better with the middle back and pivot, for example, wings aren't weaker than those in Lemgo's lines, and now the only big difference is in the right back where Lemgo have Hermann, and Balingen have to do with what they have. Either way, I expect a competitive Balingen, in an opened match, until the end. Details

Real got pretty burned last season against Canarias, losing at home, and saving the game here after the -10 in the last period. I'm convinced they'll show who's the boss from the first moment on the court today, just like they did in almost all the games this season. I'll try my luck with the half-time handicap. Real are at 8-0 in the ACB league, and five out of those eight, they were leading convincingly at the half-time, with a lot more than today's handicap (6,5). Their numbers are even more impressive in the Euroleague, also 8-0, but there they had more than 6 at the half-time in 7 games, and the only one where they didn't was against Bamberg, where they had 5 points difference. Euroleague games are a good indicator of the right approach, and because of their experience with Canarias, that's the kind of approach I expect today, since Real are even better this season, and Canarias are a bit worse, and with their series of four defeats in the last five rounds, this shot has to be taken. The bet is widely available, and during the day, Pinnacle will come out with the analyses for the half-times and the quarters... Details

In the 8 matches between the two, guests celebrated only once, Cedevita last season. That won't happen again. Buducnost gambled all of their chances in the Eurocup, and they're focused only to ABA league. They've assembled a team that had only one goal at the beginning of the season - Final Four. They have quality, that's beyond a doubt. Their shape is questionable at the moment, with 6 defeats in the last 7 games. It should be noted that they only lost in the overtime against the strong Njizni, at home on Wednesday. Cedevita are preoccupied with Europe, and lost an important rotation player when they lost Delas, so they'll have big problems in Moraca today, in my opinion. Vitkovac brings advantage on the position of the wing center, Buducnost have pretty tall players who can match Nurkic and Bilan, and the backcourt of the Podgorica team is full of hard working players who can play top defense, and it's not an accident they defeated Crvena Zvezda here, what's probably the best team of the ABA league. They defeated Cibona easily as well. and probably the only defeat they had on their own court was against Olimpija, and thanks to an impossible three-pointer by Vladovic. I'm convinced they can put a pressure on Cedevita on all positions, and the points will be left in Montenegro. Details

Siroki were left without an important offense option when they lost Barac, you could see it in Zadar where they were left under 70 points. They've lost seven times in the last 9 rounds, and in those 9, scored twice over 70, and that's significant, 73 against Mega Vizura who are the fastest team, and against Cedevita, 85-76. Today's match on Pecara won't have anything to do with those two matches, and it's easily possible that Siroki will be left under the offered 75.5. This game is very important, for both of the teams. Siroki are having a negative strike, MZT are coming with a new coach. Last season, it was 72-71 for MZT here, Gecevski scored in the last second, while in Skoplje, MZT won 63-59. The margin seems a bit too high considering the situation, Ladbrokes (not counting overtime) still hold it on 150,5, many knocked them down to 146,5, and they can even go to 147 (PSK) or 148,5 (germania). I think that has to be played... Details

This is a very important game for both teams. Pao are in a tricky situation as they have to think about securing the second phase at all and not about being the top of the group that was the aim before this season. If Zvezda lose and Laboral beat Rytas in Vitoria, the Serbian team will be without any chances. What Pao have shown so far is very disappointing and this especially refers to the first halves when they lost by some 15 points against Rytas at home, or in Vitoria when they allowed 55 and were losing by 11, and Belgrade as they allowed 48 and were down by 16. I expect them to be at a top level today from the first minute and in these circumstances they are one of the best defensive teams in Europe. Before the first game, we had a tip for under 153 points for a strong stake (7/10) that failed because of Schilb's 3-pointer that took the game into over-time, but the regular time ended in 148 points. Today we will have the same tip but with a slightly lower margin (150.5). The Greeks can and will push Zvezda as they did in the second half of the first game when the allowed only 26 points. The key is to prevent Blažič, Nelson and Jenkins from running, while Gist can guard Schilb and if they know how to do it, they've don 70 % of their job. It is a situation in which you can't relax and when you put the pressure on Zvezda and you take this away from them they become a sub-par team. Statistically speaking, this is not a good tip - Pao have 3 unders without over-time, Zvezda only 2, but these are completely different circumstances and I will adapt to them. Details

Mors have been dealing with quite a few issues this season, one of the major ones being their offense game, which depends on the 18-year old Ellebaeack, who played for Denmark at the Junior World Champions last season. Middle back Karlsson and right backs Soby and Meinby are doing well below expectations. Team's productivity dropped significantly when the key people from the last season, Mork, Koser, and Baling, left. They will be able to stand against Skanderbrog today since they have the top level goalkeeper Pedersen and they can put together a good defense. But, the visiting team won't have their first choice middle back, and very important Vaever, their left wing and best scorer, which will cause problems in their offense. I expect a tough game filled with tension. Each and every point is important for Mors in the battle to stay in the league, and every point is important for the visiting team in the battle for the play off. Skanderborg won their first head to head game 26-23 after 16-12 at half time. I expect the game today to end at around 50 scored goals, which is why I really like these 53,5. Details

When the EuroLeague draw was announced and we learned that CSKA, Barcelona, and Fenerbahce will play in group A, a lot was expected from their head to head games. Those were supposed to be the best basketball games in Europe, but they fell short of expectations. All games were settled long before the end, they were all mostly easy wins dominated by only one team. CSKA lost easily both in Barcelona and Istanbul, Fenerbahce conceded 35 points in Barcelona in the first quarter, while they beat both of those teams home. It's high time we finally saw a good game and I'm convinced that Obradovic prepared his players for this game and that it will be a tie till the end. Messina is trying a lot of different things in CSKA this season, Teodosic's role is quite insignificant, but he was the key man in the last week's game in Ukraine - he made the difference. Krstic is miles away from the player we say in Eurobasket and last season, one of the reasons for that being the fact Messina is giving Hines and Kaun a lot of time on the court, probably for the sake of better defense, which as a result causes worse offense, even though Hines is proving to be good in offensive rebound. Either way, this CSKA is not very convincing, they struggled home both against Budivelnik and against Nanterre, and I expect struggle against Fenerbahce as well. The Turks may not have the muscle and toughness that CSKA have, but they have a lot in Bogdanovic, McCalebb, Kleiza, Bjelica that CSKA don't have in Jackson, Pargo, Hrjap. Either way, I give Fenerbahce a lot more trust than this handicap. Details

Apart from their power of lobbying, the Germans have so far not impressed me with anything. We have very high odds on the European champions due to Euroleauge's fine for Begić and Pritezis, but Begić and Printezis are not crucial players in the match-up with Bayern. The most important players are Law, Mantzaris and Sloukas. This is the duo that will slow down Delaney and Đedović as they did against Arroyo in the last round and when these two Bayern's players are blocked, they become an average team. One should not forget that they don't have a single larger scalp this season, having played some tragic Euroleague games last month, against the decimated Galatasaray, home against Stelmet and last week against Siena. The Greeks are at a constant level and I wouldn't bet that their motivation is any smaller than Bayern's. The game is not as important as it is to Bayern but, the game in Malaga was more important to Unicaja and the Greeks still won. I'm pretty sure they will win today, too. Details

Galatasaray will be in big trouble tonight. Other than practically having secured their advancement into the next stage, and Unicaja coming much more motivated, the biggest news on the Turkish side is Bonsu not playing, after becoming their main power in the recent weeks, even more important than Arroyo. With him absent and four more players injured, they could once again be scoring very low results, so I am not surprised by their last two Euroleague games, in which they scored 54 points. They scored 57 with Bonsu vs Unicaja in Malaga. Perhaps they will not stay at only 50ish tonight, but I just don't see them scoring 75. Simply put, this team has no real center, no real guard, and once you deny Arroyo his perimeter shots, he is practically stopped. Plaza has Calloway and Granger to put pressure on Arroyo, and the Spaniards simply must go for the win here. They need to win two of the three remaining matches, and as they are meeting Bayern in Malaga and going to play Siena in Italy, this might be their best shot. Details

This will be a game dominated by defense, muscles and lots of physical contacts. This is the way these teams are built. They won't risk much in offense as both teams are strong from the counters, Melsunger with Sellin and Allendorf, Löwen with Groetzki and Gensheimer and every mistake will be costly. Their head-to-heads have been under 50 lately, as was the case in pre-season and I see no reason why it shouldn't be the case today. Details

There are several reasons why I chose Fener to crush this game apart. First, they conceded over 90 points against Banvit and Barca and they suffered heavy defeats so I don't have any doubts Obradović will want to see his players react, all the more so as they have important away games at CSKA and Galatasaray next week. The other reason is Selcuk and his defense that no one can rely on. They lost by 22 points against Galata at home, and by 22 against Banvit, conceding 91 and 100 points, respectively. I think they are in for something similar tonight. Details