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Krka won both head-to-heads three season ago, Cibona won both 2 seasons ago, Krka won both last season, and now it's time for Cibona.
All kidding aside, this is just a game of numbers. We will go for Cibona here for completely different reasons. Spahija is gone from the bench, which is never a bad option in this moment, as he didn't seem to know what he wanted and what his team was supposed to play. Realistically speaking, Strawberry is the best player of this team, and he's been a shadow of himself from last season. According to the information we have, the players responded positively to his sack, any departure of American players is out of the question, and these players seemed really motivated and in the game on the last few training sessions. The new man on the bench, Slaven Rimac, himself a player until recently, has great relations with the players but his role won't be so important here. Cibona have much more quality than Krka and this Krka managed to lose against Zadar. An injury to their first-team point guard puts them in a solid handicap and all Cibona have to do is play brutal defense on Edi Murič, which is something Marin Rozić is very capable of. Žižić will be hard to defend against and Strawberry will have a better game, and Blassingame too, I believe. Along with the standard contribution from Šarić, this should be enough for another win from Slovenia (the first one being against Olimpija). Details

This is an extremely important match, and the information we've received from Turkey tell us that if Trabzon were to lose again, the entire club management might resign. This includes sports director Nihat Mala, who came in from Izmir and was supposed to be one of the key people in elevating the team after they entered the elite. It is thanks to Mala that coach Hakan Demir arrived from Aliaga two weeks ago, as a man with in-depth knowledge of his former club and today's opponent. Demir immediately focused on defense, but the two games he led so far, vs Efes and Besiktas, cannot be a reference for what we will be seeing today. Firstly because they faced Efes after only a few training sessions, and secondly as they played Besiktas without Acik and Penney. They should be returning to the rotation, but it is clear a lot will depend on the approach, who imposes their defense, toughness... There will be no relaxing, this is an extremely important game. It is interesting to note that Aliaga have had 7 unders for today's margin in their 8 games so far, and an over last week where Karsiyaka scored 58 on them in the first half. Their preseason game with Karsiyaka ended with 134 points total. This week Aliaga got a new coach, one that led Selcuk in the second league last season, and went under 159.5 three times in the four games he had vs Trabzon. Therefore, there are many reasons why this should be a stronger bet. This time we will play it smarter than last week when I played under 160 and ended up with 142, losing in overtime. Now we are looking for a betting house that does not count overtime... Details

Dragic scored 12, 12, 10, and 9 points in the first four games of the Euroleague. But, the situation is quite different today. Unicaja's first scorer Toolson, who Dragic replaced as the shooting guard, is back. The first wing center Caner-Medley should also be back tonight, he's one of the leading offense options. Last week, when they won against Murcia, Dragic was left out of the first five, and played only 11 minutes. Since the two mentioned players are coming back, his minutes will be even fewer, so the 10.5 that are offered today are not realistic anymore. Details

Cesson had a very difficult list of fixtures at the start of the season and now they're facing the games where they have realistic chances to fight for points. One such game is their today's match against Dijon. Cesson have played 3 away games so far this season, all against teams better than Dijon - they beat Montpelier by 34-32, Nimes by 27-22 and Aix 25-25. Let us just say that this Nimes beat Dijon on their court. The difference in quality between the two teams is bigger than the odds would suggest, and the return of Suty and Čelica made Cesson even stronger. Dijon's game against an unmotivated PSG (28-30) seems to have fooled those who set the odds for this one. Details

I wish I could only realize the role of favorite Vardar has been given. Coach Cervar has been complaining about injuries all season long, and the fact is, they really struggle with injuries, but Cervar always had all of the players at his disposal for the Champion League games. Other than with Mirkulovski who underwent a surgery, and even he might be on the team today, Vardar struggle with back back court players. They are not top level players and tough Metalurg's defense made up of Jonovski and Markoski, will know how to take advantage of that. Stanic always did well on the goal in games like these. Vardar's wingers Dibirov and Brumen are top level, but wingers never win big games. If Atman - Mojsovksi - Vugrinec, even Mirkulovski, do their best, I really don't see how Vardar could win this. Details

Radnički have been doing well in the Eurocup but they are not the favorites here in my opinion. Bešiktaš have more quality - Perkins, Lofton, Iverson, Buckman, Ružić...they all have more value than Marinović, Lešić, Mlađan, Yarou. The turks have been on a par against Galatasaray and are coming here after 3 consecutive wins, their defense is better and Radnički will be in a lot of trouble if the offense doesn't start the way they want. And the Turkish coach said they would go for a low-scoring game. Details

Galatasaray have played 12 official games this season, and they only beat Efes in the first round and Aliaga in the Cup by more than 9 points. But this was at the start of the season when Jawai, Aldemir, Akyo and the rest were healthy and when they were looking as a powerful team. Now they have many problems and are struggling a lot, especially at home where they need the rotation of players with Turkish citizenship and have beaten Tofas and Besiktas by 7 and 5 points, respectively. I believe this Türk Telekom is as good as Tofas who had a 9-point lead at the start of the last quarter in an away game. Joke Vrankovic has got the support of the club management - the new American player Williams who got solid play time at Boston last season, he's had 10 days to work with the team and they can make Galatasaray's job very difficult. Shipp, Bogdanovic, Andric, Tunceru... these are all high quality players and they can threaten the Turkish champions at their home court. Details

Their last head to head match ended with a 25-25 score. Minden played the last two rounds against teams to some extent similar to Gummersbach with a 6-0 defense - the number of goals in those games was 51 and 48. Minden still didn't win, which makes this one of the most important games of the first part of the season. They are preparing and expecting a very fierce game. This is the first game for Gummersbach after the failure against Fuchse. They had some crisis meetings right away, coach assigned some penalty trainings, which means they'll be highly motivated and keen. This game is very important for them as well - the defeat would get them one step closer to the danger zone. Their defense is stronger than last season, and the offense is currently not the strong suit of either team. Details

This is not an ordinary game, and should not be seen as just another championship game. Karsiyaka are currently the better team, but a town derby will offer some uncertainty, and I am sure Aliaga can parry their opponent. I cannot say if they will win, but they will not lose decisively. Karsiyaka have had a tough game and a long journey from Russia, while Aliaga have spent the entire week preparing for this match. For them this is the third game at home in a row. They beat Galatasaray and played a solid game vs Fener, who are currently a world apart from everyone else. The arrival of a new American moved Aliaga, and they are looking better than at season's opening. They have not lost at home to Karsiyaka by more than the handicap is today in the last five seasons, and I am expecting something along those lines today as well... Details

Bilbao have not scored 80 points against anyone in the ACB league this season, and I doubt this will happen tonight either. Bruesa are playing excellent defense, they have limited their opponents to under 71 in their last two home games vs Cajasol and Joventut, and had 81 vs Barca last week, while dominating for three quarters of the match. This is a team that managed to concede less than 80 in all seven of their preseason games, and the progress if obvious in that segment. Their offensive arsenal is not very impressive, and their scores reflect that. Bilbao are also far from the team that played top level basketball in the previous seasons, and as this is a Basque duel, and Bilbao are still at 0 wins, I expect extra tension. In such a situation, I don't see anyone going over 80 points. Details

I doubt Nordsjaelland have much of a chance in a slow game, where the away team's defense would dominate led by their goalie Green, and defensive specialists Nielsen and Jakobson. As they are rather inferior physically, I expect them to speed up the game, and they went over the 52.2 margin even against the best defenses in the league, such as Kolding and Aalborg. This is a match where they can play a relaxed game, the next week is much more important for them. ON the other hand, BSV have lost their two main scorers, so I expect them to speed things up as well, with lots of transition and easy goals. Details

I spent a long time trying to find the reasons for such a high margin, which went even higher than the starting odds. If we count in all the games they played this season, the cup, European, league, and friendly games as well, Ankara have 13 unders and one over for the current margin. That one was vs Trabzon, the most offensive oriented team of the league, at least up to their coach getting replaced. Mersin have 7 unders and two overs, one against that very Trabzon, the other against the machine called Fenerbahce. If we take this even further, they played a cup game prior to the season, also in Mersin, which ended 80-74. They played in the preseason as well, 73-63. Mersin are at 1-3 and this is a very important game for them. Ankara are coming from an unfortunate defeat vs Novgorod, whom they were beating for three quarters and would have left at 60 points, were it not for a horrible final period (20-2 for the Russians). The important details for this match-up are the following: Mersin have Samardziski, with the strength, height and muscle to counter Golubovic, the Ankara center who is playing his career best at the moment. Ankara on the other hand, with Rasic, Valters and Tucker in their guard line, have a way to parry the offensive quality Mersin have in Barbour, Theodore and Henderson. Due to all that, I have to take this with a strong bet. Details

Fenerbahce's undefeated run will face a huge test tonight in a packed Pionir. Partizan have been powerful here for years regardless of who they're up against. And they have the best team here since Bo McCalebb took them to Final Four in Paris. Bogdanovic and Milosavljevic have matured as players as they're doing great in both directions, Fener's shooting guards will have lots of problems with them. Partizan can match Vidmar and Zoric with Gagic and Musli in the paint, and if Lauvergne shows what he knows against Bjelica and Kleiza, this should be a very close game that Partizan could even win. In any way, I think they have far better chances than this handicap would suggest. Details

Unicaja are being underestimated too much, and Bayern favored too much. The German team still have to prove themselves on the biggest scene. They earned their place in the elite with their name and with lobbying, but now they have to prove it on the court. An away game against the Greeks can't be compared to the one today, because Greeks can play with everyone on both 100 and 50 points, Olympiacos are a top team. A game against Siena that Bayern won at home, cannot be compared to this one, either, because the Italians are miserable in their defense, which shows from the defeat against Stelmet. I won't even mention the German league in the context of today's game. Unicaja are something different with Plaza on the bench. The Spaniards have top potential in the defense, starting with two point guards, Calloway and Granger, who can put the pressure on Delenay, and continuing with Dragic, Suarez, Vazquez, Stimac, and all the other amazing defensive players. Plaza isn't crazy to allow the team to rush against Bayern, he doesn't have a team that can win games with 90 points. They played 7 official games so far, and conceded over 80 points in none. I believe it won't happen tonight, either. It's time someone put the Germans down, because they don't deserve to be in the Euroleague. Details

Valencia are real monsters at home, only two teams have such transition after the defensive rebound - Real and Fenerbahce, and I daresay Real's defense is weaker than Valencia's and Fener's as Perasovic has more mobile players as power forwards and centers, unlike Real's Bourousis. Obradovic has that in Fener with Zoric and Vidmar as no.5 and Bjelica and Kleiza on no.4. This Valencia, lead by Doellman are really something, especially at home where they are so aggressive the opposition simply falls apart. In three official home games, they got 108 against Valladolid, 87 against Bruesa and 88 against Ulm. This Varese haven't shown too much in defense, not in the Euroleague qualifications (79 against Oldenburg) or later. Milano scored 84, they cracked under pressure against Olimpija and now they're facing a real team-drubbing machine. Details

Accambry and Kavticnik not playing is a huge blow for Montpellier, who have a wide team, but Grebille and Dolenec can't give what Accambray and Kavticnik used to bring. Besides, Dolenec will get a lot of minutes because the young Gutfreund is still not the top game level. I don't mention Omeyer here because Siffert is top notch on the goal, and Omeyer's absence isn't obvious. Ivry aren't as bad as the results are showing, and they took a huge burden off their back when they defeated Dijon. They have seven defeats so far, and they only lost once with more than 7 goals difference, 32-24 against Chambery. They've lost with more than 4 goals difference the three matches against Montpellier in the last season, but I think they'll give more than a solid resistance today. They've been saying that Simonet is Montpellier's key player, which is completely true, but since Diego is their former player, I believe coach Leandri will think of something to slow down the great Argentinian. Details

Noone can accept the fact that Lübbecke are considered as favorites, all credit to their results, a win against Löwen and other games. But I will go for the away team here. Göppingen beat Hamburg at their home in a great game, it didn't go too well against Kiel, but they weren't too far either. Göppingen have a team that can match Lübbecke in all positions, from pivot (Pevnov - Loke), center back (Kneule and Krause - Vuković) to back players (Rnic and Lobedank) where they are even better than the home team. Prost is doing great on the goal, him and Marinovic are a better option than Blazickio and young Semisch. In addition, Göppingen have won their last 3 head-to-heads and the teams are pretty much the same as last year. Details

The underestimation of the Turkish team continues, and I'm not sure they deserve it. Khimki are a brutal team on the paper, with Popovic, Koponen, Monja, Davis, Loncar, Gelebale... Nobody can tell me that the Turks are a lot worse with Dixon, Diebler, Lyons, Batista, Senturk. Coach Sarica has the backbone of the last season, and if there weren't bad referee decisions against Efes, they would come here undefeated. DIxon can put the pressure on Koponen, Popovic is far from his top shape, and if Batista can match Davis and Loncar, we'll see an equal game, so this handicap must be taken. Details

Tofes have been playing really fast basketball, spearheaded by the excellent American shooter Denmon and six of their seven official games so far have gone over this margin. The Hungarian coach says they prefer faster basketball, and they had games in the Hungarian league that went over 190 points so I don't believe they will relinquish their philosophy today. The reason I will go for this with a smaller stake is the inability to compare the quality of the Hungarians, that is, the Hungarian league, as Tofas are simply to far above its level. Details

Greece had a much stronger outer line than Israel, and the Dutch limited them to 10 goals in each half. I expect a strong defense by the Dutch once again today, as this is their forte and they must push their advantage. Israel will likely try a different approach, a much tougher and determined game than they gave in Belgium. This a key game of the qualifiers for Israel, losing to Belgium seriously disturbed their plans, and they will be in big trouble if they do not win today. Details