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This is a game that will decide the top position in the group. In case Canarias win, they would secure the top spot because they already have one win more than their competition, and their runner-up are Strasbourg who defeated them at the Canary Islands after overtime. Top position is important in this competition because it secures direct advancement to the quarter-finals so the stakes are high. This is a duel between two teams that are at the top defensively, Strasbourg are at an average of 66.7 conceded points, and at home at only 60.6, Canarias, on the other hand, are at 65.8 conceded points and I don't see why the margin is this high today. Their first head-to-head was at 120 points in regulation time, they did not go over it in overtime either and I think we will watch a similar game today. Strasbourg have an over with Juventus and Mornar, but in a game where they scored 86 and 93 points, they decided the winner by halftime, but I am sure that won't be the case today. They also have unders at halftime against Oostende (70, end 131), Avellino (56, end 127), Cibona (70, end131), Mega Leks (54, end 127) and we have the head-to-head where they scored only 53 points by halftime, Oostende (67, end 138), Avellino (70, end 141) and the first game in Lithuania when Collet still wasn't on their bench and that game is not relevant here.
On the other side, Canarias have overs in the first half against Cibona and Mornar, but the winners there were evident beforehand and they didn't even play defense the entire game. With Avellino at halftime (71, end 151), Oostende (76, end 128). They also have an over at Cibona and against Juventus in Lithuania, but everything was decided by halftime there. They played all derbies at low numbers, they will not rush today either, they showed in the last championship game against Andorra that they can play good defense, they limited them to 72 points, and there are more games in the Spanish championship that are in favor of this. This is a crucial game for the top position, we have two top defensive teams and I think we should bet on this.
With this bet we lose the possible free throw end and that is why I decided on the halftime, and not the end of the game, even though that is another good option, as is Strasbourg's team under. Details

Hapoel are hosting Bnei in the Israeli Cup QFs today. The game will be played in at their arena and that is why they'll do their best. The game from three days ago when these opponents beat them by 20 away will be another motivation. In Jerusalem, they never lost by less than 10 points. Hapoel beat them at the start of the season by 20 points and I think this last game is a result of a very bad approach at Hapoel. Their coach and players now say just one thing - that will go full throttle into this because they cannot lose. I believe they will show their power here. The visitors are without forward Mashour who is averaging 14,5 points and 9 rebounds and who is the key player on the team. There is no point in saying how weakened they will be without him. I believe Hapoel will make a step forward today. They are a team for big things. Only Valencia got points in this arena this season. Ulm and Kuban lost here. In European terms, Bnei are a rather mediocre team. Nanterre and Minsk beat them easily and Hapoel should be able to do even better and cover this handicap. Details

I was surprised by this margin on this game and I think that we should definitely use this. I already wrote about Oostende's great form, they are playing much better than at the start of the season, and even back then they did not concede this much points, and the only two official games in which they conceded over this margin were at the Belgian championship against fast leuven at the start of the season, 81 point, and against fast Antwerp when they won 90-85 at home. They never conceded over this margin in the Champions League, and in the group we have several teams that are fast and offensively powerful, primarily Avelino and Canarias, whom they limited to 72 and 62 points respectively. There are some other unpleasant teams like Mega Leks who scored 76 against them at home with a horrible second half, Cibona 70 and fast Mornar 74. In the last 9 games they did not concede this much points, Mega Leks and Leuven scored the most, 76 points. Their first head-to-head finished 59-69 for Juventus, but Oostende were in bad form back then, they played without important Gillet and still conceded ten points under the margin. Let's look at Juventus' numbers. In the Champions League they have 2 overs on this margin, against Strasbourg, who were a different team under Dettman at the start of the season, and they scored against them only 61 at the last round in Strasbourg. They went over against Cibona who came to Lithuania with their B team and that game is not relevant here. They scored 79 at Mega Leks, but Oostende's defense cannot compare to Mega Leks'. The Belgian team will put pressure on Juventus' backcourt line that will not get much chance to play, and another bonus to the bet is the fact that important center Cepukaitis is still struggling with injury, he was brought back too early, and Bickauskasa, who gives them pace, is also questionable. This is an important game for advancement to the next round, Oostende have only one win less, Juventus suffered four back-to-back defeats. True, in two defeats in the Lithuanian championship hey have overs on this margin, but Rytas and Nevezis play very fast, and Oostende will not rush anything. They will play good defense, and Juventus do not have the offensive power to score 80 points here. Details

Cibona are complete again, and this is like a practice for the game against Cedevita on Sunday for them. I expected a handicap to be a bit bigger, so I I think is definitely a margin worth taking. Cibona have their best players after resting Žižić, Rozić, Joksimović and Marinelli on Tuesday against Juventus, so they didn't go to Lithuania. This is an important match for Cibona because they want to be in the top of the league. THe match against Jolly is definitely a bi game, and Cibona shouldn't have any problems. They played against Škrljev without Žižić and were up by 15 points in the road game. I won't list the national league examples, but Cibona covered this handicap in the ABA league three times so far, against Mornar, Karpoš and FMP, and they should all be better than Jolly. Jolly crushed Škrljevo in the road game, but lost convincingly to Zagreb, which is a plus for this pick. True, they crushed Zadar at home, but that was the worst period for Zadar, they were tired and realized they couldn't get points, so they used the substitutes. They played worse in the road games so far, and a plus for this pick is definitely that Cibona are playing Cedevita on Sunday, so they will want to solve everything in the first half today. Details

The Lithuanians got only one win this season, two weeks ago against Nevezis in the national league. They lost all their other games, and far below today's margin. They hit 78 against Dzukia at home, 44 Ventspils, 67 Kalev, 45 Zalgiris, 59 Pien, 79 Juventus, 60 Vyatautas, 67 Neptunas, 74 Rytas, 72 Tsmok Minsk in the first round. They went over against Nevezis, but hit 74 against Apoel Nicosia in the second round at home. They had 66 against Lietkabelis in the last home match. They obviously struggle offensively, and I think this margin is too high. Pardubice left even Nymburk at 81, only Kolin went over this margin in a game they won 83-96, so I think they'll leave the Lithuanians under this high margin today. Pardubice have 1-1 score here, the Lithuanians 0-2, and this match is very important for the Czech in order to pass the group, which is a plus for this pick. Details

I don't want to underestimate Zadar but I don't think they will trash Split today. Coach Matulovic said he hopes to give a chance to his younger players today, if the result allows it. The team from Zadar has three wins in the Croatian championship, they beat Kvarner by 5, Sibenik home by 4 and Zagreb by 7 away in the last round. They played their last game on Saturday against Krka and have used up a lot of energy. Vladovic and Marinkovic played for 40 minutes, Ramljak won't play today, Vranes is questionable as well. That means that, if we don't count the youngsters, Zadar have 6 players. Split, on the other hand, have Filipovic, who could wear Vladovic our. I don't think Vladovic will play as much as he did in previous games. Split have three players under the rim, all three capable of dealing with Marinkovic. Kedzo is in fine form, Najev can replace him and Split also have Kanaet who can play good defense. Split beat Cedevita in the first round away and Alkar in the second home. They lost the last game to Sibenik after falling apart in the third quarter. They allowed two 3s in two minutes and the 19-point difference isn't realistic. This is good also because of the fact that if Zadar take the lead that would allow them to hold back in the end, especially if their young players get in the game. Split should cover this handicap. Details

Cibona went to Skrljevo with almost top team. Only Ante Zizic who is having some injury problems, won't play. Rozic, Joksimovic, Sakic and JOhnson will be there to play a few minutes and settled the game. Skrljevo are not Cibona's level and I think the visitors will settle this by half time. I was thinking about this bet before I knew which players will be there for Cibona. What I know now only makes it even better. I expect the top lineup to settle the game by half time and this margin seems very acceptable. An extra plus to this bet is the fact Skrljevo were down by 14 points at half time to Jolly here. They were 11 points down in the Cup ti Zagreb here. They covered the handicap in the first round with Zagreb and with Zabok in the last round . Cibona are, however, much much better than all of those teams. One more thing, Marin Rozic gave an interview this week and said they have no training sessions, so it could become normal for them to play Croatian championship games. Details

Cedevita's top team will play this game for a simple reason - they lost the first round unexpectedly to Split, there are a lot of injured players on both A and B teams and they decided to use this game as a practice session for the Eurocup game which is coming up on Wednesday. Hermes should struggle to avoid relegation. Cibona's B team already beat them by 18 points in the first round after taking an 18-point lead by half time. Head coach Mrsic will be there today and he doesn't allow holding back. I would be surprised if Hermes managed to finish the first half by a deficit of under 20 points. They will struggle with Cedevita's defense greatly, which should allow visitors a lot of easy points. Cedevita's centers will make the difference. ALl things considered, this should be a one-sided win. I was deciding between total handicap but I think the first half handicap is better. Some players from B team could play the second half and I don't want to risk anything. Details

So far Zvezda settled all the games this season by half time. In ABA League, only Zadar went over this margin against Zvezda (35 points). Zvezda allowed 30 to MZT, 32 to Cedevita, 31 to Mega Leks in the last round. They allowed just 31 to Darussafaka in Euroleague and those are all of their official games this season. Krka beat the feeble Karops Sokoli, FMP beat them in Novo Mesto and Buducnost trashed them in Podgorica in the last round when they took a 17-point lead by half time. I don't think they will have any problems with krka who struggle on the offensve end. Krka hit 62 against Buducnost, 6 against FMP home and Zvezda have better defense than both of those. They will want to settle this as early on as possible since they have Euroleague in three days. Coach Raonic will rest key players is possible and in order to do that, this needs to be settled early. Details

There is a big difference in quality. Cibona's record is 3-1, Karpos Sokoli's 0-4. Cibona look very powerful, mostly because of Zizic and Sakic who dominate the start of the ABA League. They will take the biggest load today again, and on the other side they have a team who won't be able to stand up to them. Labovic, Knezevic and Zekovic are a few levels below, and here everything should be clear from the start. I expect Cibona to start out strong, something like they did against Mornar at home when by the half-time they were at +11. They crushed Igokea in the first round by half-time with +15. Still, this bet becomes even better with Karpos Sokoli's results who covered this margin only against Partizan at home. All other matches were far at half-time, and I expect Cibona to deal with things by half-time as well. Coach ulaomerovic didn't use the first five in the matches of the Croatian League during the week. Zizic, Rozic, Joksimovic and Sakic were at the side, and only Johnson played, and he played well, especially in the last match against Gorica. He himself announced that he would like to get ready some more. I expect the well-rested and stronger Cibona to solve the match by half-time today. A good option is also the total handicap, but due to them possibly relaxing a bit in the second half, I think this one is better. Details

Sibenik were built for great things this season. They acquired a lot of players and want the top spots in the league and in the Cup. This game will decide who is to play at the final tournaments. Not getting there would be a big failure for Sibenik. A lot of money has been invested in this team and they should finish in one of the top spots, maybe even threaten Zadar. They have done very well in preseason and are now to face Zabok, who beat Alkar with more struggle than expected in the first round. Alkar are main candidates for relegation. I think the difference in quality here is bigger than the bookies suggest. Sibenik will win this easily. They are complete today and they played the first round without two important players. Zabok are good but these teams' rosters cannot be compared. I expect Sibenik to cover this easily. Details