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I didn't think I'd bet on Sassari's under this season, but I won't miss this one today. Their crisis is more than obvious, with five consecutive defeats and a disastrous game. In 100 possessions, Sassari concede the most in the league, 115.4 points, and their offensive effect went from 112.4 to 104.9 points compared to the previous matches. That caused their rhythm to slow down, and they don't have 75.7 but 72.8 possessions per match. The number of assists went down as well, from 15.2 to 11.1. Sassari's individual game is to be blamed beside their rhythm, they don't play like a team.
Venezia came really motivated, they are eager to get the second place before the playoff, and a defeat isn't an option. They announced that the key for Sassari is to control the rhythm and play more slowly, and that's what they do great. They have a great rhythm, and the margin is three points bigger than their season average. I'm sure Venezia will leave Sassari under 80 points. Details

Trento won the first game 90-74 and showed that they're a better team. They are going after another win today because they want to keep the fourth position, and their recent form suggest that they will succeed in that. Orlando are under no imperative today, they are playing for their supporters, and I don't think they will manage to compete with Trento during the whole game. Trento lost only two of their last ten games, and in a game of high value, I believe they will continue the same way. Details

I'll bet on the same thing I did in the last round because this is the most important match of the season for both teams. I played an under for Trento against Roma, and didn't get it right because the unlucky Trento's 70% shots in the last period. Roma are the main culprit because of the turnovers, and they'll be more careful today. It's simple, this is the match of the season. Let's just check Roma's conceded points in the last 24 matches (82 58 77 72 71 63 56 56 65 71 80 72 66 63 74 72 82 54 66 67 60 66 84 75). It's obvious that this margin has no basis because the defense is everything to Roma. Curry and Stipčević are probably out today, and D'Ercole will get lots of minutes. He's a great defensive player. I don't see Bologna going over their season average which is a lot bigger than this margin. Details

It is true that Reggio have 12 back-to-back home wins, but in half of those they didn't cover this margin. Menetti is clearly sparing his players and he is not hiding that even though they want to win the second position. Cantu need to win, they're on a good series, Metta World Peace gave them a boost. They most definitely need a win for the play-off position. The win over Milan confirmed that they have the quality, and another important factor, besides Metta's arrival, is the fact that Gentile has started playing, and Abass' contribution from the bench is increasing. This should be a tough game with less points, considering Reggio's motivation and inability to break opponents, these 7.5 seem like a nice stock which Cantu should defend. Cantu won the first game 64-63. Details

Trento has the third best offense of the league, but it's hard to not to play this when we know that Roma in the last 24 matches 20 times didn't go over this margin (58, 77, 72, 71, 63, 56, 56, 65, 71, 80, 72, 66, 63, 74, 72, 82, 54, 66, 67, 60, 66, 84, 75, 84). When we take a better look, in the last nine they didn't concede more, and they approached the margin only once. Today they need to win if they want to get to the playoffs, and they're aware that defense is not the only way to reach that win. Trento should also win in order to reach fourth place, but they already achieved their goal and they don't have to rush into this one. In the first head-to-head it was 75-68 for Trento, and today I expect an equally tough match because the stakes for Roma are high. Details

Although both need it, coach pistoia said it all. Pesaro can still try to escape with the games they have ahead of them, Pistoia can't. They need to win any way they know if they want to continue the playoffs race. Their game style doesn't suit Pesaro, and they could especially have problems under the hoop. Pistoia raised their game in last rounds, and although I don't believe they will win as convincingly as they did in the first head-to-head (84-53), I believe in their win. Pesaro are in a crisis again and behind them have a 5-game losing run. Details

I was pleasantly surprised with the margin for this game, and I definitely will use it. In a game with huge stakes, I don't think it will look pretty. Avellino have to win to keep their chances for the playoff alive, and Caserta have only four rounds to get away from the bottom. Statistically, this match's under is very well based. Avellino play at 149 at home, and with coach Frates' arrival, the defense became even more important. Caserta play at 152 away, and that gives us an average that's 6-7 points under the margin. The reason is the first match that ended at 196, but Caserta were falling apart with 14 defeats in a row. They'll die for every ball here, and I definitely don't see a game over 150 points. Details

Both teams need to win, which automatically suggest a hard and firm match. Their first head-to-head ended up at 150 points and this margin is under the influence of their matches with faster teams. Venezia are a team who like to adapt to their opponent, and Cantu slowed down in the last three matches, so they ended up at 147, 134 and 156 points. Venezia are defensively very uncomfortable and it's hard to attack them. Cantu's offense depends on easy points, counter and semi-counter attacks, and Venezia won't allow that. Venezia are against teams such as Cantu under this margin; Brindisi 147 and 150, Avellino 150, Cremona 138, Roma 131. They only out-shot Bologna and the match went up to 167. Details

Caserta are definitely underestimated today, and they need it more than anyone. They're at the last place of the league table, a consequence of a disastrous start of the season and 14 defeats. A lot has changed after that, coach, half the team, and I'm convinced they'd be placed better than Varese if they had this lineup from the beginning of the season. They're in a series of two defeats, but they played well. They were losing to Milan -4, Trento -7, and beat Venezia +9. They've definitely got the quality, and this match is one of those they have to win to get close to Pesaro who lost yesterday. Varese only got three wins in 12 matches this year. They're the worst offense of the league, and will also play without Diawara who's their best scorer. These +5.5 definitely have value. Details

This match's importance suggests it's going to be rough. Orlando would secure staying if they win, and Brindisi point out they want the fifth place. Their defenses are among the better ones in the league, both concede 74 per game. What's even more important is Orlando's sterile offense who only score 70 per game, and play the slowest game in the league. Their first ended at 151, so this margin is influenced by that, but this match is a lot more important. Orlando play home games at 140, Brindisi away games at 154, but with teams who play good defense, those numbers are regularly lower. In the last four away games, they played 143 against Bologna, 147 against Venezia, 141 Milan, 150 Venezia. Details

Pesaro have a good series. It's not easy to defeat Reggiana and Roma, but Pesaro don't play defense, and that's crucial in this match. Sassari are the second best offense of the league, and score 87 points, Pesaro are the second worst defense. Pesaro's coach statement shows how much of a chance they have today: "Sassari are playing an interesting and fun basketball, but lately improved their defense, too. That's bad fo rus, it's not football where a weaker team can score thanks to a counter attack. In basketball, it's a rule that whoever's a stronger opponent, wins. We'll try to match them, but they showed how strong they are against Cantu, and there chances to win are too big." He said it all, basically. Sassari won the Cup and boosted their self-confidence, which is really important for their game. Sacchetti can rely on all his players today, and the win is an imperative if they want to keep the third place, or even skip Venezia at the second. Details

Both teams die for each point in trying to secure staying in the league. Today's match is really important for both, and Caserta are trying to catch up with -4 from the first match. It ended 68-64, and we should expect something similar today. Orlando are the worst offense of the league with 69.8 points per match, and Caserta aren't brilliant with their 74.8. Orlando are good defensively, conceding 74.3 per match, they're the oldest team of the league, have Basile who's 40, and Nicević who's 38, and those two can't run too much. They can play zone defense that helped them leave Avellino at 65 points in the last round. Their last four matches all ended at 140, 131, 130, and 135 points. Caserta limited their opponents to 65 points in the winning streak, and they were defeated in the last two when they conceded 87 and 81. It's obvious that Orlando don't have the capacity to score that much, and it's even more obvious they'll have to play a rough defense if they want to win today. The first match ended at 132 points, so this margin is far from being realistic. Details

Milano haven't been fantastic this season, but their quality really shows in the national championship, and I think only Sassari can be a threat for them now. A series of 14 wins in the championship tells enough, and they got over the disappointment for not winning the Cup thanks to a win against Nizhny in the Euroleague. Now, they will face a team right behind them, the only one that defeated them so far, at the beginning of the season when everybody were still warming up. They definitely want to get even, they're really motivated, which means Milano will go full force today. In normal circumstances, I wouldn't be writing this because Reggiana are a dangerous team, but they'll play withou ttheir best scorer Diener (12.4p/m) today, and their first center Cervi (7.8p/m, 6.8r/m). Their offense will be blunt without Diener, and there will be only Cinciarini, Kaukenas, and Della Valle. Cervi's absence is a big blow because Reggiana's game really depends on his and Cinciarini's pick game. Hackett, Brooks, and Moss can close off the backcourt three, Melli really improved in the defense and can limit Polonara, and Reggiana will have real problems under the hoop with Samuels. There's nobody to guard him, Lavrinovič is back after an injury and a five months long break, and Pini is feather light compared to Samuels. He's in top form, he scored 36 points in the Euroleague, and got voted an MVP of the round, so he'll be great today. Milano have 9-0 ratio at home, they didn't cover this handicap only once, and that time, it ended at exactly seven points difference. Details

The chaotic state of Orlando should be taken advantage of with this pick. To start with, they're the worst team of the league offensively, averaging 69.5 points per game. They're also among the oldest, and play at a very slow pace with fewer possessions. Lately they lost their backup point guard Cochran, and some of his time will to veteran Basile (40y) and slow their offense a bit more. Foward Burgess and his 9 points per game are also out of the team, and the biggest blow was the departure of best scorer Freeman, who averaged 15.3 points. No replacements were brought in, which means this reduced their rotation to 7 players, including 40-year-old Basile and 38-year-old Nicević. Avellino are clearly a favorite against such a dismantled team, but as Avellino are not exactly offensively focused, and their matches tend to have lower scores, I believe it would take nothing short of a miracle for Orlando to score more than 70. Their scores from their last five games were 57, 63, 63, 73, 67, and with the above mentioned three players missing they'll be lucky to reach 60. Avellino limited Milano, the best offense of the league, to 60 points in the Cup game. The first match of these two saw Avellino winning the away at Orlando 81-67. An alternative would be to take a handicap on Avellino, but everything points toward a slow match with a lower score, making an under seem like a better option. Details

The margin seems to be just right given the offense productivity and the results from the first two head-to-head games. But when taking a moment to analyze this a bit further, I find it to be a bit high. These two teams have the best defenses in the league. Venezia limit their opponent to 72.8 on average (league-best) while Brindisi allow the opponents only 74.5 points. Venezia's game end with an average of 153 points, but the last 10 finished at 142 to reveal how good the defense is at this point. Brindisi's games finish at 150 points but the last games with Pesara (194 points) and Trento (178) have a lot to do with those numbers. Both teams see this game as a perfect opportunity, they both have powerful rosters and both will go full throttle. Both coaches are experts at defending and I don't expect anything but a tough game today. Details

I have to admit I expected 1.10 on Reggiana, and the market offered 1.50, incredible. Also, I expected the handicap to be -12 or over. In the meantime, everyone reacted, so the odds are at about 1.35 now, which is still much more than I expected, and the -6 handicap is definitely too low, I expected it to be twice as bit.
Why that's the case, I don't know, but a big thanks to the bookmakers. Reggiana are the second team of the league with 28 points and 14-4 ratio, and they have five consecutive wins before this match. Pesaro are the last with only 8 points and 4-14 ratio. They didn't win at home since last November, and now have six defeats in a row. They lost by -1 against Venezia only because Venezia relaxed after having +20 in the third period. They lost by - 19 against Trent, -3 to Bologna, -20 to Cantu, -8 to Brindisi and -15 to Avellino. Reggiana celebrated in the last two away matches, and against much stronger opponents, Cremona (+1) and Brindisi (+23). They defeated Venezia by 9, Avellino by 6, Tretno by 9, all teams who defeated Pesaro. Even Pesaro's coach praised Reggiana, said they're playing better and more beautiful basketball than Milan. I don't know how he can stand up to the healthy Reggiana, Myles is still recovering, and Wright and Lorant are still fitting into the team. These -6 are like a gift for me. Details

I can't help but constantly think that Milano are just a shadow of the team from last season. They are on a 12-game winning run but the quality of the Italian league is not very good. Reggiana and Venezia are their only contenders, with Sassari sometimes doing brilliantly. As the preview says, this will be their toughest away game in the season. Venezia are the runner-ups and will try their absolute best to get only two points short of the top table opponents. They are among the best defenses in the league (73 points on average) and need to be good on the defensive end today in order to create the chance for a win. Milano record 85 on average, but the stats are blown up by their performances against poor defenses (Varese 105, Sassari 112 and Trento 102. When faced with good defenses, Milano are nowhere near as convincing (Cremona 68, Avellino 69, Reggiana 76, Roma 79, Pistoia 79). None of those matches is over this margin, while Venezia had overs only against fast-paced Varese (95) and Sassari (83 in regulation time). Stone, Goss, and Viggiano are very good guards at Venezia, and Nelson, Ortner and Ress proved they can deal with Samuelson and Melli in the final last season. The total under at 154 is a good choice as well. Details

Things are coming to their place in Caserta. The nightmare from the first part of the championship is slowly being forgotten, and that's thanks to coach Esposito. Even though half the team has been replaced, he built in them the defensive mentality they were expected to show since the season began, when they pointed out they're a defensive team. After 14 defeats, they lined up three wins, and conceded only 56.5 points per match in that period. Each match is really important for them to get away from the relegation one, so they'll bite today. This match is important to Bologna, too, who are trying to get to the playoff, so there won't be a lack of tension. They're a positive surprise, a team this young always comes with weaknesses. Theirs is the two-pointer shot, making them the worst in the league. With Caserta's rejuvenated defense, I don't see how they could go over their average, which is the margin set here. You should definitely take it considering the trend. Details

Cantu may be playing at home, but I refuse to believe they're such favorites against a team two spots above them in ranking and that Trento are underestimated so much. I'm not using that for a handicap however, I see the team total on points as an error. Cantu are not a defensive force, they allow opponents 77 on average, which drops to 72 at home where they do better. Trento on the other hand score 80 on average, which drops to 75 away. Trento won their first duel 83-75, showing what I expect today, a 155+ match as they like a fast paced match and Cantu often adjust to their opponents. Trento stayed under this margin only against the athletic and powerful Brindisi (74) and Avellino (72), and in the blowout against Reggiana (58). Cantu are not as strong physically, nor can they stop Mitchell and Pascol, I believe, who can be big problems for Cantu. Details

Although they're not ranked last, Pesaro are the weakest team in the championship in my opinion. Myles getting injured did not help either as they're now down to Ross and his 17.9 points. Changes had to be made, so they replaced the coach and brought two new players, who've been with the team less than a week, and I don't believe they can significantly change the pale performance of the team. Pesaro's is the worst offense in the league, averaging 70.1 points per game, while Brindisi score 76.1. The also have the third worst defense with 72.1 point conceded per game on average. They're also second worst in turnovers, with 16.3 per game, and when you match that with Brindisi's aggressive defending, the quality difference becomes obvious. Pesaro lose by 17 on average, and apart from the last away defeat at Milano, Brindisi won three away matches against Avellino, Pistoia and Cantu. By comparison, Pesaro lost against Avellino by 9, vs Cantu by 20 and with Pistoia they were at -31 in the end. Brindisi won their first match with Pesaro 92-56. Details