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Latina recorded only one win in nine games, and I'm betting on them? I have a very good reason for that - the absent players at Citta di Castello. They will have to do without their first choice opposite Van Walle and starting receiver Fromm, who are on their nation team campaigns. The two of them are by far the best players on this team, they score 32 points on average and making up for that will be quite difficult. Young Sartoretti, born in 1995, who won two points so far will be in the position of opposite. Carminati or Masari will replace Fromm. They've won 16 points so far combined. It's therefore clear that Citta will struggle in offense. Latina, are on the other hand, doing better and better, they did well against Perugia away in the last round, they got through in the Challenge Cup, and they see this game as a great chance for a win. The team are made up of great players, but the results are not in accordance with it. Now that Starovic joined, they seem much better, and I believe they will be able to take advantage of the big problems Citta Di Castello are faced with. Details

Cantu have already missed two chances to secure the top spot in the group. They've lost both away games, but it was easy to tell they were not fully committed to those matches. They're not going to miss that chance today, so that means no easy going attitude or playing for the crowd. They're all healthy and in good shape, which they confirmed by beating Varese. The same cannot be said for Cibona as the departure of Žižić and Planinić's suspension left a gaping hole under the rim. Kuridža and young Arapović will have a hard time vs Leunen and Cousin, as well as Jones and Uter. Things are not going great in the club with the pay running late, so their motive is doubtful as well. Rimac stated younger players will get their shot as well, and I believe Aradori, Ragland and Jenkins will have no mercy for Cibona. They have a big derby with Milan coming up this weekend, and a decisive win would be a great run up for that game. Details

Things are clear as day here. Pesaro have 8 consecutive defeats, minor injury problems with Pecile and Anosike without any real replacements. They are one of the youngest teams in the league and you can see the inexperience. On the other hand, Milano are coming into this game after a huge win against Brose in which they secured their Top 16 spot and are now focusing on the league. Gentile and Banchi clearly stated they have to get a run of wins and do better in away games. They've already said that their upcoming games are imperative and Montegranaro was crushed afterwards. In this case, the margin set for the handicap is too low and with a right approach Milano should be able to cover it without too many problems. Details

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It is very clear in which direction this game should be headed. Roma have no chance to go through, they are playing their fourth game in 8 days, they have 5 defeats in this competition and they have 1 win in 4 home games. The league is now their main imperative and coach Dalmonte clearly said that he will not ask his players to go with full force and that fatigue was visible against Pesaro last weekend. On the other hand, Zaragoza are highly motivated as a win would not only see them through but would secure them the top spot in their group. In their last 6 games, they have 5 wins and a defeat against Barcelona, they have no injury problems except a minor one with Stefansson but even he should play. They've been playing great defense lately and they conceded 65, 50 and 60 in their last three Eurocup games. Taking everything into consideration, the given handicap is too low. Details

I wrote about Pistoia's under against Siena in the last round's prediction. It ended with 155 with only 65 points in the second half-time, and that's the real image of what the game looks like when Pistoia are playing. Siena stuffed them in the first half-time, and Varese are far above them so it's difficult to expect the same scenario. They admit it in Pistoia, and they know that they can't win the game offensively, so they point out that the opponent can't go over 70 points if they want to have a chance to win. Their team is full of physically strong Americans who can play an aggressive defense (55-75 Milano, 65-60 Cremona, 56-67 Reggiana). After the first three rounds, they were deeply under in every game (except against Pesaro - 158). Varese are the most uncomfortable surprise of the championship, but nothing is lost yet because they keep the good seventh position. They had a row of seven defeats, and a win against Pesaro was necessary. Frates realized where they were losing their games, in the defense. He only talked about defense before this game, and announced a better game in that segment of the game. For the first time, he said it's more important than the offense, and we should expect a better performance today. Since Pistoia are one of the worst teams offensively, their job might be easier, which finally makes the set margin too high. Details

They announced that they'll shoot for the top this season in Avellino, but what they showed so far doesn't confirm those statements. 4-4 ratio, an initial defeat by the last Pesaro, losing games against teams from the top (Varese, Cantu, Sassari) confirm that they don't have the quality to stand up against the best ones. Four wins weren't convincing, they had a lot of troubles, and the main reason is a very bad defense. Today, Avellino will probably be without Dean, a very important back, and also Dragovic, so they lose rotation possibilities under the hoop. Siena are coming to face them, and they've been killing the opponents who played weaker defenses with their rhythm. They're extremely strong physically, Hackett, Green, and Carter are a huge danger overall, and now that they have Nelson back under the basket, they've also gained height. Defense is their strong side, and they can defeat anyone with it, because Hackett always finds a solution in the offense. They're coming here after an important win against Stelmet, and if they want to keep up with Brindisi, they have to go full force in today's match. Details

The situation on the table clearly shows the difference between Vibo and Trentino. Vibo are currently the tenth-placed team with 2 wins against Verona and Ravenna who cannot be compared to Trentino. On the other hand, Trentino are the third-placed team and it is clear they have to win as they want to keep up with the leadin duo. Out of 10 games, including the national championship and the Champions League, they have nine wins and only 1 defeat against Macerata. They've lost only a single set in their last four away games and are playing great, spearheaded by Sokolov and the young forces - Lanza, Ferreira, Sole. Vibo don't have the quality, Gavotto is not the "bomber", Ogurčak and Randazoo haven't lived up to their expectations so far and they will have a hard time dealing with Sokolov and the rest. Trentino have covered this spread in their four away games so far. Had the bookmakers not reacted to set handicap I would have gone with this bet, but since I consider this margin to be too low as well, I believe Trentino will cover it for the fifth time. Details

Siena are now the second-best defense in the league with 71,4 points. Pistoia score 75 on average, but this is not a realistic description as they scored a lot in the first 3 rounds as most of the other teams were still disorganized. Today they are facing a tough one, 40 minutes against Siena's aggressive defense, much like the one employed by Reggiana and Milano and they scored 56 and 55 against them. They scored 65 against Cremona, the team with one of the worse defenses in the league, while I won't bother commenting the 79 against Pesara in regular time as they are the absolute worst defense in the league. Siena can't seem to find their offensive solutions lately, they are often around some 70 points and when Hacckett does not have a great day, they usually struggle. They have no real point guard that can organize a good attack and Hacckett spends much time on this position. Since they have an important European game against Stelmet coming up in three days, I don't believe Crespi will force him today. Siena will try to win this through defense and since Pistoia only have 4 players that can go beyond 10 points, and they can match Siena in physical game, I don't see this going over 150 Details

Caserta obviously have a crisis of results, they're in a row of five defeats, but they had real chances for winning in four games. Everythings starts with the defense with them, and that's all they talked about before today's game, and were mentioning clever game in the offense. It all leads to conclusion that today, we'll be seeing war with positions, like many times so far in Caserta's games. They never conceded over 81 points so far, and their matches ended with 149, 177 (overtime), 158, 135, 131, 146, 134 points. Even tough Montegranaro love faster basketball, coach Recalcati announced that they shouldn't rely on runs against Caserta today, because it might be lethal for them. This game means a lot for Caserta, and I believe they'll calm it down and try to win using defense. Details

Cantu and Siena are playing a great derby today and this alone is a reason enough for high intensity game. The home team are facing tough task against the second best defense in the league that concedes only 68,3 points on average. Siena's great defensive potential must come to fruition today. On the other hand, Cantue are very strong in offense but they have shown that they adapt to the style of their opponents. They usually play tough games with less points against defensively stronger teams. Their defense is improving, and apart from their "crazy" game against Cremona, they limit their opponents to 75 points. Their head-to-heads from last year show what type of game we will see as they all ended at 139, 121, 153. Taking all this into consideration, the margin is definitely too high. Details

Milano are playing a game less than 48 hours after their heavy defeat against Efes in the Euroleague. They were trying to catch the break until the last quarter which certainly tired them out and the huge comeback certainly drained them mentally. Today's game is a another tough game as Reggio Emilia are coming ,the best defense in the league. Their games are very slow and hard and usually stay at 140-145. Milano have improved their defense lately, their average is 76,5 points and since Reggina has the second worst offense of the league, I don't see this game going over 150 points. Details

This is a match between two worst offense teams, Reggiana scoring 69,8 per game, and Pistoia 71,8 per game. Add to that the fact that Reggiana are the second best defense of the league with 70,4 conceded points per game, it's easy to conclude that a game with a low number of points is expected. Reggiana are not as powerful offensively as they were last year, despite them brining the ex-NBA player, White. It takes some time for them to get to a higher level as a team, but defense is their trademark. They conceded over 80 points only in the away game against Varese in the first round, and they conceded really, really low numbers at home, 59 twice, and 63 once. Now they're hosting Pistoia, who are bad in the offense. Even though they have five Americans, it doesn't look good in the offense, and everything relies on the defense. That's how they won their last game (65-60). Their coach is aware of that, and he asked the players to show max aggressiveness and engagement in the defense. With all that's been said, we shouldn't be seeing deluxe basketball today. Under points are a logical choice. Details

After a surprise victory over Avellino, Pesaro lined up four losses (Caserta -9, Cantu -15, Siena -25, Montegranaro -5). Coach Dell'Agnello has a very small roster, playing with practically only two substitutes, and has to send juniors to play when it gets rough. His statement that they cannot train normally due to lack of players speaks of the gravity of the situation. Such a schedule is difficult even in normal circumstances, and today won't be normal, as the away team are Sassari, with their ultra fast-paced basketball. Pesaro are weak on defense, and Sassari are extremely potent on offense, confirmed by games in which they scored over 100 points. Coach Sachetti points out that this is an important game as they suffered two away losses so far, and he is aware of the importance of such games. Sassari easily won their last two games, and today they have a great chance to continue the streak. One thing is certain: when Sassari win, they win decisively, making this handicap a great option. Details

Modena could have had 4-0 by this time, but they're coming into this game with 1-3. They came to the very end in a tough Perugia court, but the end-game was lacking. They had Piacenza on their knees and missed three match-balls and they spilled a 2-0 set lead against Citta de Castello. They have to get something back and Vibo at home is an ideal chance for that. They have shown to be much better at home while they seem to struggle in away games and it doesn't look too good. Modena have more individual quality and good solutions on all positions. Their attackers are looking good so far and I believe they will finally atone their defeats so far and get all 3 points. Details

It is a bit strange to see rising odds for a team with 27 consecutive defeats in Europe. Cibona are at the bottom of the table and it will be very hard for them to make up for their defeats so far. They had their chances against Le Mans and Oostende, they didn't use them and now they're facing their toughest opponent, Cantu. The Italians are in great form, Aradori is back after a short injury break, but his absence wasn't felt due to their wide roster. Cantu's point guard Ragland is having a great season, he has an average of 17 points, 2,8 rebounds and 5 assists in the Eurocup, and Blassingame is not a player to guard him. Aradori and Jenkins are great shooters have great penetration and will wreak havoc on Cibona's defense. With Leunen and Cusin in the paint they will try to stop Šarić and Žižić, and they will be very tricky in offense as Leunen is a great shooter and Cusin has an advantage over Žižić with his 2,11 m. All in all, Cibona haven't shown they can play a serious 40-minute game and Cantu are a team that will punish any mistake they make. Details

Roma have been playing exceptionally tough games this season, and the numbers confirm it. They ended four out of five games in the championship with the under, and two with 130 points. They played 144 points against Gravelines in Europe, 164 against Dexia, but the Belgians' defense cannot be compared to the Germans'. The last game was against Zaragoza who like a faster game, and it ended with 142. Coach Dalmonte kept mentioning the exhausting rhythm of the games throughout the whole season, and he's aware they can't accomplish anything with their run. They have good shooting guards in the team, and they've been using them so far. They're talking about Roma's good defense in Bonn, but they're boasting that they're also getting better in that segment. In the games against teams similar to Roma (Gravelines and Alba), they were well under this margin. The importance of this game, the statistical data, and all the talks about the defense in both teams make this couple a very good choice for the under points, but the margin is a few points too high. Details

Today is the perfect opportunity for Latina to win a set - they didn't do it in the last two games. The Challenge Cup win against Chemes was their first one this season and it gave them a boost of confidence. Michailovic proved he's in fine form so far, he rested against Chemes, and Torres turned out to be a great replacement for him. Fragkos proved to be their first choice receiver. Gitto and Verhees are good quality blockers, and international libero Rossini bring security to defense. Vibo didn't show much so far, and they had problems against Verona despite winning. Receiver Cisolla and libero Farina are back on the team, but I still don't see them as the favorites for the win. A tied match is expected - at least four tied sets, which should mean that they'll go over this margin. Details

Cremona and Sassari are teams that are currently in completely different moods. While Sassari are performing at a high level and are scoring 90 + points with ease (over 100 on 2 occasions), Cremona haven't won a single game. They lost against Siena by 15 points, against Bologna by 5, against Brindisi by 22 points.They have been having problems with injuries and they lost their first point guard Chase. He was replaced by Woodside, and they brought in Tripkovic to cover this hole. Apart from Rich and Woodside they don't have too many player that could carry the game and that is Cremona's biggest problem. Sassari grind their opponents with their pace, they have a fast transition, all of them can score a 3-pointer and it is very difficult to defend against them. After their first defeat, they got 2 wins by a points difference of 13 and 15 points, respectively, and 2 in Eurocup by 19 and 15 points and a defeat against Bilbao in overtime. The Diener brothers are unstoppable, Marques and Caleb Green have adapted quickly and so has the versatile shooting guard Thomas. They have center Johnson who is doing the "dirty work" in the paint. All things considered, Sassari should extend their winning run. Details