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Telekom are on a 4-game winning run home and beat Bayern away early this season. It doesn't seem logical to expect the Bavarians to win easily but Telekom were good early in the season while Bayern had their focus on EL. Telekom got into a crisis in the meantime and haven't gotten over that yet. The 4 home wins are nice but the opponents were Crailsheim, Göttingen, Hagen and Tübingen, who are either bottom-table or in horrible form. When it comes to meeting with good opponents, Telekom did badly. They lost to Frankfurt by 30 recently and Oldenburg, Ulm, Giessen and Bremerhaven beat them by double-digits as well. Bayern have the best defense in the league and Telekom suit them perfectly. The home team allow around 92 on average and play game at 175 points. The Bavarians hit around 90 in the same period of time. The visitors are done with Europe and can focus on Bundesliga now entirely. Coach Pesic said that the game in Bonn is the most important one they will have so far in the season. That says it all. They want to defend spot 2, they are almost complete (Djedovic might play) and they beat Bayreuth by 23 last week to prove that they are done taking away games lightly. Telekom can win games against weak teams who allow them 100 or more points. However, they cannot stand up to top table teams. Details

Even though Alba are not as good as last year, I expect them to handle Hagen easily today. Alba have won only 4 out of the last 10 bundesliga games, the play-off is not in danger, but the 4th position is. They are currently 6th and they will not be able to hope for a home court advantage in the first round of play-off without a winning run. They already lost five home games and I think they will be motivated today, they cannot afford a slip up. Lowery and Akpinari have been out a while, but they found replacements for them. They also lost center Bottermann who did not play a relevant role. Hagen's absences are much more relevant, they lacks width so youngsters like Krume, Grof and Jasinski have been getting more and more playing time. Since center Covington has been out (for the rest of the season) they lost to Brse at home by 21, at Telekom by 25, and in the last round at home to Bremerhaven who were near the relegation zone then. Small forward Mann, who is in great form, will probably absent today as well. Covington's absence is crucial for them because they lacks physicality in the paint, I cannot see how they can guard Kikanovic and Loncar, and Alba's backcourt line Taylor-Cherry-Milosavljvic is capable of using opponents flaws in defense. Hagen are in such position that they will not reach the play-off, but they are nowhere near relegation either, their form has dropped lately, and they do not fare well in Berlin traditionally. It is unlikely they can compensate for the absences and this is an ideal chance for Alba to easily earn important points. Details

Brose are a level above any other German team this season, and Frankfurt is right behind them, regardless of only being the sixth right now. Skyliners are consistent. When they lose, it's mostly to the best teams, in thriller final moments. They always go all the way, they're great as a team, the key players have been together for a few seasons, and now they're picking the fruit of that. That's what Telekom's new coach Silvano Poropat said. He lead Bonn to two wins, beating Tubingen where they hit 102 points (allowing 99), and against the weakened Hagen where they hit 111 (allowing 86). Their opponents weren't really playing defense, and Telekom took advantage of that, but they don't look convincing defensively themselves. Frankfurt are the best team of the league defensively, everything is based on being firm and aggressive, and then they really use that in the offense. Frankfurt are complete, they're in a 12-home-game winning run in all the competitions combined, and Telekom lost the last five away matches, all over the margin set today. Frankfurt won by 23 in their first duel this season. There's a huge difference in defensive quality and stability here, Telekom don't really look serious this season and they can hardly be an even opponent here. The Skyliners would get to the fourth place if they win (and if Ludwigsburg lose in Bamberg as is expected), which is their main goal. Details

I was hoping that the margin won't go significantly over 170 points, and I think the 169.5 offered is worth the take. There's not much philosophy when Okapi and Liburg are playing. True, Okapi didn't go over the 170 margin many times in the season, but it's important to take into consideration the context and the opponents. Today's match is somewhat important, it's a fight for points which are being transferred into the second round. However, both clubs achieved their main goal when they secured direct playoffs, and they can play this last match of the first phase without pressure. They played together three times this season, and each time Okapi won, each time it was tense and each time they went over today's margin. In the first head-to-head Okapi won 109-101, so they played at 210 points with no overtime, in the second Okapi wok 93-89 (182), and in the third it was 99-99 (198) in regular time. So far they played seven head-to-heads, and only once the total was under today's margin. It's no surprise. They both prefer run-and-gun, they have short attacks and the number of shots often goes over 70. Both teams are complete, and in the last rounds they showed their offensive preferences. Details

Leuven are basically the only team in the league that is under no pressure, which allows them to try different thing and play casually. They have the worst defense in the league and allow an average of 93 points. They allowed Willebroek 88 in the last round home, before that 93 to Pepinster, 106 to Spirou, 100 to Antwerp and 93 to Oostenede. Mons failed to get in playoffs directly, which means they need to win this. They beat Liege 100-74 in the last home game and hit a lot of point in two previous games as well. They beat Leuven by 22 points and hit almost 100. Mons are good home and failed to get in Top 5 because of the poor away games. TO sum up, Mons are much better quality-wise, they are injury-free and very motivated. Leuven are ideal for their game style. The visitors are 0-9 away. I expect the home team to dominate like in the first h2h because Leuven cannot defend any opponents. As a result, the home team will win convincingly. Details

Breogan tonight won't be led by their main coach Lisardo Homez, but what I consider to be more important is the fact that the team from Lugo are finally complete, and the set offs on their win is in no way in co-ordinance with the objective strength of these teams. Prat raised their shape lately, however they're still a very young team who are based on the efficiency of two experienced backs, Forcada and Roso. When you stop them, what Breogan did in the first head-to-head, then they are in trouble. The Catalans lost the first head-to-head with more than 30 points of difference, and Breogan at the time had only eight players available, without important ones. Prat are the last at the table, they need to points to stay in the league, but the visiting team also need points. They are outside the playoffs zone which is one step away and they have no room for error. Lately they looked better in road games than at home. The first head-to-head showed that Prat don't have the physical strength to defend Rio's centers, and now they're also stronger in the paint for one Ortega and in the meantime they got other good players too, and if you ask me, they're much bigger favorites than the odds would suggest. I don't expect that today Breogan will win as convincingly as they did in the first clash, but that team are worth a lot more than their current score and position at the table would suggest. If they don't make it to the playoffs, that would mean disaster for them, and this is one of those matches in which they don't have the right to make a mistake. Details

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No need to describe rivalry between Oostende and Spirou. The biggest derby in Belgium, a match with a special charge where both teams play their best. These matches are mostly high in defensive intensity, as the first one this season that ended with Oostende's win, 59-55. Of course, Oostende's matches usually end with a much higher total number of points, but that's not hard considering the quality of the league, and the fact that most teams are weak defensively. Still, in the last home match against Limburg who are fast, they lost 67-69, and beat Lege 81-72 before that, meaning they stayed under today's margin a lot. No need to point out how much better Spirou are defensively than those teams. Actually, Spirou are the best team of the Belgian league defensively, next to Oostende. Both allow about 74 points per match. Spirou are really tough physically, and they depend on the Baron brothers offensively, without many other options, so I have no doubts that they'll be very intense defensively today, and tend to slow things down like they did in te first duel. Details

In this season Mons are showing two different faces. One is at home, and the other is for away matches. Because of that their record in the Belgium champion so far is 7-8, they're seventh, and only the first five will secure the playoffs. Those who remain under the line will have to struggle additionally in the 6th - 11th place playoffs because of which they shouldn't have trouble with motivation. Their fixture is not that good for the finish of the first phase of the championship, and such matches as today's against Pepinster is something they simply have to win. At home they lost only to strong Belgian clubs such as Oostende and Antwerp. Others, including in the FIBA Cup, they've won. They didn't lose for ages to Pepinster at home. In the last five seasons they always beat them with 24 or more points of difference. They lost the first head-to-head this season, and it was away. Mons were missing the important play Bosco, the opponents had center Williams who dominated the paint. Pepinster, after losing that player, lost the rhythm, they were on an 8-game losing run, they ended it with a minimum win in the last round against Willebroek. That same Willebroek Mons beat in the last league home match with +32. Pepinster are in a 1-6 record this season as for away games, they won on the side only against Willebroek. In Brussels they lost with -31, against Antwerp with -29, Liege at -15; they even lost to bottom-table team Leuven. They have the worst defense in the league which on average allows 97 points. Last weekend Mons almost beat Spirou in an away match, they have shown progress, they had a week to focus on today's match because the European adventure for this club is over, and now all the focus is on catching the 5th place. Details

Brose have been proving they are are one or two levels above other Bundesliga teams each next round. Euroleague doesn't affect their performances and they try to settle games in the first 10-15 minutes. Crailsheim are a team that is among the worst teams in the league. They lost to Gottingen home by 33 points last round. Brose lost to Voitoria badly in Spain this week but they are used to this rryhth,. I expect their will be focused due to that defeat. Trinchieri is that kind of a coach. They took a 63-24 lead by half time against Tubingen last round, 66-37 against Gottingen, 56-333 against Bremerhaven, 64-44 against Craseilheim in the first h2h. Details

Considering Okapi's latest performances, I hoped that the margin will be set under 170 points and that happened. Okapi are a run and gun ream who are at an average of around 165 points, however, lately they have played games at lower numbers and the reason is that their opponents were Belgian league's better defenses (Spirou, Oostende, Antwerp, Mons). Brussels are completely different, they are a team that plays away games best at a high pace, they won't mind outrunning which will be imposed by the team from Aalst. Brussels' average is near 170 points, in the last round they went over 170 against Leuven, and they went over today's margin against Mons, Oostende, Antwerp... In their first clash this season, Okapi defeated Brussels 105-88. Brussels's game style is the most similar to Limburg's with whom Okapi went over 180 three times this season. So today we again have a clash of teams who have similar offensive styles and that is why there is value for me in the match over for a medium stake. Details

Brose are a team that, under coach Trinchieri, focuses on great defense and aggressive playing, but there are several reasons why I think that defenses won't be in the fore today. Brose's focus is currently on Euroleague where they have been achieving great results. A few days ago they defeated Barca, they are quite spent, both physically and mentally. They soon have a new Euroleague game and they won't play at their best today. They are awaiting Tubingen, a run-and-gun team who have nothing to lose here and they won't give up on their game style, and it is hard to believe they will be able to keep up for a longer period. Brose recently played two games against teams similar to Tubingen. First they defeated Telekom 109-72, then Gottingen 113-92. Their home games are on average at 166 points, they score over 95 points. Tubingen this season are at an average of 186 points, they are at the top offensively and scoring wise, defensively at the very bottom. It's a team filled with Americans who play in the American style and Brose will know how to use that. It was similar in their first head-to-head this season, when the title defenders won 98-88, so they played a game at 186 points, and even Tubingen held on until the start of the final quarter. Details

The Cup is definitely a coveted competition in Belgium and is played in the traditional knock-out system with no final tournaments. Mons and Oostende will be very motivated today and as coach Gjergja said, this could be war. Games between these two teams normally are, especially those played in Mons. This season's champions game was an exception to this rule. Mons failed to stand up to their opponents in the right manner and got down pretty early on. That resulted in a more productive game. The stakes are much higher now. Mons are a defense-oriented team and the only way for them to stand up to Oostende are muscles and forcing opponents to lose rhythm. The visitors are much better in defense but defense-wise, they are the second best team in Belgium. Looking at meetings between these two clubs from the last few years, they rarely went over the 150-point margin. Only 4 times in the last 18 games, while neither of the last 4 cup games went over 143. In case of a tie, there will be no overtime tonight since points from both games get combined for the final score. Details

Giessen deserve respect for everything they've done. After earning a promotion from the second division, they are now close to getting into the playoffs. They are also on the longest winning run of the season - 4 wins. Still, they will probably not be able to keep the winning run going tonight given the opponents. Teams like Frankfurt don't suit them concept-wise, as their coach admitted. They do their best in fast-paced basketball, a they recorded most of their wins against opponents who allowed them to hit over 80 points. Frankfurt have the best defense in Budesliga. They might be the toughest team in Germany. The previous head-to-head in which the Skyliners had 20 rebounds more, dominated at center positions and stopped Giessen's backcourt completely says it all. Giesen got limited to only 55 points in that game. In the last 18 games, Frankfurt lost only three, all to top German teams (Brose, Alba, Ludwigsburg). Giessen is on a great run, but when you looek at those wins, the only easy one was over Telekom, who are not doing well. The ones over Bayreuth, MBC and Wurzburg were won by two points and mostly on account of a lot of luck. Frankfurt are complete and don't have European games. They beat Ulm (on a 6-game winning run) by some 20 points easily. I expect this game to be similar to that one. Frankfurt have not lost in Giessen since 2002 - in the last 10 visits. Details

Burgos and Palencia's matches are always special. They make a regional derby in Castile and Leon, and that always means a firm match of high intensity. That was what it was like in the first duel this season, when Palencia won 81-62, far under today's margin, even though Burgos fell apart and were losing by 15 in the first half already. They aren't likely to fall apart today. Burgos are home-oriented, and have the third best defense in the league, allowing under 70 points per game at home. They have an average offense, but are missing two important back players today (Huertas, Vilanova), so they'll hardly dare to try outrunning a rotation of 8 players. Palenciahave the best defense, allowing about 68 points, and under 67 when playing away. They're at the top offensively, but mostly kept their games against teams like Burgos at low numbers. For example, they played a match of 136 points against Melilla in the regular time, and stayed under this margin against Ourense, Lleida, Navarra, Caceres, and at 134 against the defensively-oriented Palma in the last round. Burgos played similar matches against similar teams. Their duel against Lleida ended 64-64 in the last round, 137 and 135 against Navarra, 143 against Caceres, 67-43 against Lleida in the first duel. They've played nine league matches against Palencia in the last three seasons, and only one of those ended over 147 points. It stayed under 140 six times. We should keep in mind that Burgos had the best offense of the second league in the last seasons, and played much faster than they do this season. Details

To be honest, I expected the odds for PAOK's win to be lower than this. Oldenburg beat Nanterre and Limoges in away matches, but the rhythm of those matches suited them, things were fast. Not today in Greece. The home team point out controlling the rhythm and the defense, and they should be able to do those things because Oldenburg aren't a firm team, with strong frontcourt players, except for Qvale, and if you take away their running and pressure the backs Duggins and Kramer, they're usually in trouble. PAOK's form rose, they've mostly been winning lately, with a 6-game winning run at home, losing one to Olympiacos in the overtime, and by 1 to Panathinaikos in an away match recently. Oldenburg are having a decent season, but they're better at home. Their score in the Bundesliga is 5-5, they lost convincingly to the humble Bayreuth on Saturday. All in all, I think the medium stake is worth betting with this margin for PAOK because I think they're definitely not the Germans' favorite pick, and they're in a decent form. Details

Olympiacos dominate at home with their defense, they limit their opponents at around 60 points, they score around 70. They play very slow basketball, they have imposed such rhythm against everyone so I believe the same will happen today against Brose. The German team play Euroleague games at an average of 150 points, Oly at home at 132. Brose are, under Trinchieri, a team that starts with strong defense, but dependent on their opponents, they are ready to accept faster pace, like they did against CSKA, Real... The Greeks are something completely different, the best European defense and it is, in my opinion, more realistic to expect another game at lower numbers, similar to what Brose played against Unicaja, Darussafaka and Maccabi. Oly conceded over 63 points at home only against Efes in an irrelevant game, but the German team aren't naive in the defense either. They conceded 72 points on average in the Euroleague, and we should point out that they conceded 100 and 85 against CSKA and MAccabi when points meant nothing to them, and they conceded over 80 against CSKA and Real. All in all, this is a clash between two defensively oriented coaches, two great aggressive defenses, athletically powerful teams. Brose already proved they can handle the best European teams, they were close to winning in Madrid and Moscow, so I don't expect them to fall apart today. Details

Frankfurt and Rosa belong among the teams that mostly rely on excellent defense and it is hard to expect a game at a high number of points here. Frankfurt concede 64 points on average in FIBA Cup, Rosa 75, with indication that Rosa were, in the first stage of the competition, in a group with three opponents who insisted on fast basketball. They recently played against Gaziantep at 130 points, conceded less than 70. Over the weekend, Rosa played at Torun, second best offense in the Polish championship, and they left them at 62, won convincingly. Recently they also defeated Stelmet, and they know that only a win today will keep them in competition for the next stage and they will have the right approach. Frankfurt won all 8 games in the FIBA Cup, and today they have a chance to secure the next round. Even though they won all the games, the German team won convincingly at home only against Sodertalje, when they Swedes came without their best players and with several sick players. They defeated Llei by 5, Krka by 2, Porto by 8. There is no doubt that they are the favorites against Rosa today, but I don't expect the Skyliners to 'ran over' the away team, that this will go towards 20 point advantage. The club from Radom is well led team, they rarely fall apart, they are tactically disciplined, there is a chance center Zajcev will join them today, but regardless of him, we can expect them to use zone defense a lot tonight, and that way try to annul the home team's advantage in the paint, which is what they did great against Stelmet. Details

Oviedo lost their best player and corer Swing during the week. By he was the best player of the second league and they can't make up for him just like that, in the offense he meant a heap to them. It's to expect that they will push the centers now and slow the game down somewhat. Prat has lately gotten into shape, they won three out of the last four matches, but they're still the team with the worst offense in the league with an average of less than 70 points. They have the worst shot percentage from the floor, and they rely on their defense the most. In the first head-to-head of these teams, Oviedo won 79-69, and in that match Swing scored 19 points. Tonight I don't expect Oviedo close to 80 points. In the last round they scored 60 against Huesca, a round before that against the run-and-gun Castello they played a match at 146 points, and before that, against Burgos at 141. Against teams similar to Prat they were in unders Lleido 74-72, Navarro 72-63). In the last round Prat completely slowed down the offensively strong Clavijo, leaving them at 59 points. Details

Rosa are always the favorites when they play at home. They're in a six-league game winning run, recently they beat Stelmet. Still, for a couple of reasons I don't think they will have it easy against Kutno. The first reason is due to Rosa's main center injury, their only real number five who is very important for opening the paint and the rebound game. That's the Ukrainian Zajcev who led the team in the last round against Trefl. Without him, the center will be Hajric who is a clear number four or Adamas who has been collecting crumbs the whole season. Kutno are, rebound-wise, the strongest team in the league, their best segment is the center where they have the solid Johnson and Fraser. The away team have been losing mostly, but they happened in the finals because of their weak offensive game. On average they allow and score around 67 points. Rosa have more offensive options, but it's hard to expect them to use that now. A match on low numbers is more probable. On Wednesday Rosa are opening the second round of the FIBA Europe Cup, a competition very important for them, and that's why that is also important for this pick. Details