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BLMA and Kosice are probably the two Euroleague teams who struggle most. French champions are averaging only a bit over 60 points (59 home) and clearly need to rely on defense heavily. They're quite a powerful team physically, play tough defense, but when it comes to the offensive end, lack ideas. Slovaks have even less ideas in offense, averaging 57.5 points and conceding around 70, which a consequence of bad performances against team like Dinamo Kursk and USK Prag. They lost to BLMA 50-66 in the first head-to-head, beat Galatasaray 59-50 last week, and played games at some 120 points against Wisla and offense-oriented Ekaterinburg before that. BLMA's games against Galatsaray ended at 102 and 107 points. Galatasaray's game is similar to Kosice's. We need to point out that this is an important game for both teams. BLMA are on a 3-5 record and cannot afford to lose to Kosice, who are 2-6 and still have the chance of getting through. Both teams are under pressure and we can expect a very nervous game. Details

Anwil are not at the level from the past few seasons, this is the weakest team they had in the last 10 years. The 6-9 record mid-season only goes to prove it, while their record home is 3-4. They score an average of 72 points home. They have been scoring more than 80 points only against very poor defenses the whole season, with the Turow game being the only exception. They meet Torun today in a regional derby match and a very important game in staying close to playoff spots. Anwil lost to Torun 70-96 in preseason and 74-85 in the opening round by settling the game very early on. I expect a much closer match today, with high intensity and charged, given the circumstances. Torun have improved the defense in the last 4 rounds and have been more in accordance with coach Rajkovic's philosophy. He's been in charge at Anwil up until this season. Details

Ten days ago Brose outplayed the Bavarians on home court. They stopped them at 63 points and confirmed their great shape once more. Brose played 13 matches in their hall this season and one of those was a defeat against Strasbourg. You could say it's hard to defeat a tough team like Bayern twice in a short period, but the Bavarians are in no better shape than they were 10 days ago. Micic and Benzing are still injured, an now they won't be able to count on Bo McCaleebb which is a great loss. Nihad Djenovic is questionable. He missed the last two matches, and Brce Taylor also seems to be out of the picture. Because of influence Jagla and Zipser didn't practice the last couple of times. Bayern aren't that good in away games. In the last nine such matches they won only twice, against the weak Braunschweig and Crailsheim. Individuals such as Bryant, Gave or Savanovic are not to be underestimated, but we've seen how much trouble they've had with Brose's aggressive defense, while offense-wise Bayern haven't been good for a long time. Because of all of line up problems, it's hard to expect them to be at a better level than they were. I don't see what could have changed in ten days in order for Bayern to be in a better shape than their last away match in Bamberg. Details

Kutno and Torun developed great rivalry back when they were second tiers and their head-to-head matches are always very important. Kutno's offense is clearly in decline, having went over the 74-points margin only once in regulation time in the last 9 rounds (against poor Tarnozbrzeg's defense). They scored 66 in the last round and home against offense-oriented Szczecin only 70 (66 against Anwil, 68 against Slupsk, 61 against Stelmet, 66 against Trefl...). They lost to Torun home 70-73 in preseason. This should be a close and tough game. Torun concede around this margin on average, but the last three rounds clearly displayed their defense progress. Tarnobrzeg scored only 61 against them, and Slupsk and Stelmet were limited under this margin. Torun conceded more than 80 to powerful offenses like Trefl, Turow, and Koszalin, which is not relevant for this game given Kutno's offense quality. Details

The injury struggles at Rincon are no better at this point compared to the last round. Sanchez (12.4 points on average) will need to undergo a surgery, Soulade (10 points+3 assists) is out as well, while key player Guillien didn't manage to recover from an injury (13.6 points+5.5 rebounds). Only the less important Okouo managed to recover from an injury, meaning coach Tome needs to go with a few 17-year-old again. He will have to do without his three best scorers and three players from the starting five. It's too big of a problem when facing the best team in the league. Palencia are complete, in fine form, and has the second defense of all second-tiers. They concede an average of only 62.5 points while Rincon score only 66 on average- Palemcia beat Coruna by 18 points, Huesca away by 15 and Burgos by 30. Rincon lost their last home game when the team was complete to poor-performing Clavi by 10 points. They finished 32 points short of Palencia in their first head-to-head match with Palencia, also complete. Details

Statistically, this margin is justified. Luwigsburg concede 78 on average in away matches, but the circumstances and opponent they're facing today are such that bare numbers can hardly be a justifucation for this margin. Trier are offensively the weakest team in the Bundesliga, scoring 70 points on average at home, who recently played a 140 point home game against Hagen, and who usually win exclusively due to their very good defense. They went over this margin only once or twice this entire season. Ludwigsburg had a crisis period at one point, but have been improving over the past two rounds, especially on defense. They limited Mitteldeutscher, a team similar to Trier in style only better, to 66 points in an away game, and then reduced Frankfurt at home to 75 in the round before this one.This is a very important match of two teams with the same score, just one victory above the relegation zone, and the intensity should match that. Details

Torun are getting better, but still aren't winning, which is what makes this game with Taronbrzeg very important. The opponents won't be able to count on two very important Polish players and will have a very short roster to deal with today. It will all come down to probably only 6 players, but since two Polish nationals need to be on the floor at each given moment, things will get very tricky. I didn't opt for the home team handicap win but home team over here. The main reason is the aforementioned ailing visitors, their defense problems and very limited roster. They concede more than 90 points on average, play your typical run'n'gun and won't be backing down from it today. Home team are averaging some 80 points home and visitors' style will suit them as teams they met that are similar to Tarnobrzeg proved scored 89 against Koszalin, 87 against Szczecin, 86 against Dabrowa, and 85 against Anwil). The visitors are not at the defense level of those teams, in fact, they are the poorest-performing defense in the league and going for Torun's over at this margin is a good choice. The total points over is a good option too. Details

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Turow didn't lose a single game in the national championship yet. They're easily winning with each round, and especially dominate the offense. They score 92.7 points per game, and play games with about 171 points total. In the last round, against defensively oriented Asseco, the game ended at 186 points, before that the away game against Koszalin ended at 167, against Slask at 168, and both Koszalin and Slask are better defensive teams than Szczecin who will be without their main center, Harris, today, who's the main man in the defense. So, everything will fall down to the back line. The duo Releford - Rosario will have their hands untied and the guests don't have a choice but to fasten things up, because they can't match Turow in the paint. Against teams similar to Szczecin, Turow played games either close to 180 (Dabrowa, Lublin), and even went to 180 against the defensively oriented Kutno. It's hard to see how the guests can stop Turow from developing their fast game here. The option is a handicap, too, but Turow showed a few times this season that they don't care about winning the games with 30-40 points difference. Szczecin played the last round against Polpharma at 181, at home against the defensively oriented Rosa at 169, against Torun 177, against Trefl 189, and even against Slupsk, they were close to 170. In this match, it's hard to expect some kind of drama. Turow are too strong to let this be an even match, and we should see a great looking basketball today. Details

Gottingen have lately been in good shape, but as their coach says, they can hardly keep this level of game; this is their third match in a week and at the end of the clash against Brose it was visible they're losing it, especially play El-Amin who couldn't breathe in the last quarter. Brose positioned a lot taller player against him, and Frankfurt might do the same and put the defense specialist Robertson who's actually at position three, but he can play number one if needed, especially in the defense Frankfurt's style can hardly suit Gottingen because they have a strong defense, and the away team are defensively very soft and depend on the offense. Frankfurt have five championship wins at home in a row, all convincing. They almost beat Alba in Berlin in the last round; by bringing play Cobbs they did the right job, and if today they manage to take El-Amin out, half of the job will be done. All in all, Frankfurt are a more complete team than Gottingen, in excellent shape, strong when at home, and more rested. Details

A lot of things are at stake here. Brose didn't lose at home this season, Alba didn't lose a single championship match. This is going to be a match with a play-off intensity. The main reason are the coaches. Both Trinchieri and Obradovic look for maximum approach, especially in clashes like this one. The derby is also a match in which two best defenses of the league are going to clash. Brose concedes 71.2 points on average (68.8 at home), and Alba allows for 70.9 at home, and 70.7 away. Last year in the championship they played with low numbers both ways (70-58, 73-69). Now Brose are a completely different team, with a new coach better in the defense than last year, while Obradovic's team rarely fails. Details

Huesca lined up five wins at home. it seems impressive, but they were far from brilliant in those matches. They were lucky to beat Palma, and were supposed to lose to Oviedo as they scored the winning points after regular time ran out, which the refs failed to register. They beat the terrible Clavijo in their last home match, so one might say their result is much better than their performance. Tonight they'll have a much tougher job at home, and I believe their series ends here. The bad news is they lost two very important players due to injuries this week, point guard Perez and shooting guard hart are out. The Brit is important due to the rotation, and Perez is one of the leaders of the team. This means their rotation will be on 6-7 players today. Huesca are one of the youngest teams in the league, with most players born in 1993 or later. They are talented, but they're facing what is probably the strongest 2nd league team. Palencia's roster is at full strength, they're very experienced and highly motivated, for two reasons. They need this and next round's victories to secure the Supercup of the second league, and they also want to end their unfortunate series of away losses. They lost against strong Navarra, Melilla and Valladolid in what were practically final moments. Palencia have the best defense in the league, their style does not suit the home team at all, and they should be especially dominant under the rim, as Huesca's main center, Troutman, is less than impressive lately after he recovered from an injury. Palencia are on the upswing, past weekend they beat the strong Burgos by 30 points. Details

It rarely happens that the odds on Oostende's win is this high. Limburg so far have shown to be a solid team, yet it's hard to put them into the same rank with the current champions. Oostende are in a 10-league win rows, their form is excellent, they won the last six matches in all competitions. The main difference between Limburg and Oostende is their defense. The away team can be a lot better, on average they score 67 points in the championship, and in away matches only 62.4. Limburg are practically a team of six Americans who play their fast basketball, but they're having a difficult times against harder teams. However, there are almost no such teams in Belgium. In the last round in Mons they remained at 60 points, in the first match against Oostende at 70. At the time today's away team were in worse shape, and still they managed to solve everything fast, having 20 points of advantage. Oostende has the width, I believe motivation won't be a problem, and in that case I expect them to continue their streak. The last couple of matches were missed by Limburg's main play Jesse Sanders. It's questionable whether he will be able to help today, and if he will, to what extent. Details

I have to be honest, when I yesterday saw the margin at 154.5 points, I expected the market to react, but it didn't, and on this margin it's better to play an under. There are many reasons for it. The main one is Rosa's game style. That club, under coach Kaminski, has progressed much in their defense. During the summer they brought a couple of defensive specialists and it's working well. On average they score 78 points, but concede only 68, at home 62.8. Even against one team such as Turow they managed to play a match with less than 140 points, with Slask below 150, and only in six home matches did they go over that against Polpharma, but that was crushing the weak opponent (102-60). Trefl's shape is growing and they seem better at the game. In away matches they play below 150 points. Out of six away matches only against the offensive Szczecin did they go over 150. Against clubs similar to Tosa, i.e. Slupsk, it was a match at 135 points, and against Assec at 142. Details

Nymburk's last night's win made way for this pick. The Czech defeated Sevilla and everything cleared up in C group. Oldenburg automatically lost chances to pass to the second round, so this match doesn't mean much for them. Neither does it to the guests from Rome. Virtus secured the first place already, so they can play relaxed. Besides, they have a derby against Milano this weekend, so I wouldn't be surprised if they relied on math. Oldenburg lost games than they won in the national championship lately, so their focus is on the Bundesleague right now. The Romans like to play faster, they're very potent offensively. They mostly went over 150 points in the Eurocup, 178 in Sevilla, 169 against Spirou, 166 against Sevilla at home, 163 against Nancy... Oldenburg won't mind that style. They played a game of 164 points in Italy, when the points mattered. After Jenkin's comeback, Oldenburg's offense got more strength, but they haven't been brilliant defensively lately. Details

This is basically a revue game. Okapi secured the first place, and Bakken are definitely the last. One of the option is definitely over points, but the margin is getting closer to 180 points, and the latest info say that Okapi decided not to use their only center and the best player John Tofi, which is an obvious sign they won't give their best in this game. Tofi is their tallest player with 203 cm, and without him, their rebounds will lose a lot. The Danes are much taller in the paint, and they should have a certain advantage there. No doubt Okapi are a better team and if this match had any importance, the context would have been completely different. This way, I think Bakken won't be embarrassed in Belgium. They're complete, have a new back, and in the first match against Okapi, when the Belgians were in a much better form and complete, they only lost by 9. Details

Frankfurt lost first head-to-head game, but that meeting has nothing to do with this one since German side had only 6 players to count on back then, 2 of which were from their youth ranks (7 were out with injuries). Boras struggled against such a decimated team a lot to win when one of their players scored a three pointer with 3 seconds on the clock. Swedish team lose even in their domestic league and the main difference between them and Frankfurt is defense performance. Frankfurt have a much better defense, they're on a 6-game winning run, and played their best game this season against Oldenburg to win by 20 points. The defense seems superior, but their attacking got better since a few important players got back and point guard Cobbs joined. This is a completely different game, Frankfurt are better and seem to be very motivated in Eurichallenge Cup, as their wins over Bakken and Okapi prove. Details

Last week in a Hagen - Telekom pick I that when Hagen, Telekom, Göttingen and Bayern play each other, it's worth playing the over regardless of the margin being around 170 points. The schedule pitted Hagen against another run'n'gun team today, Göttingen, and I think it'd be a shame to miss this bet, although the margin is above 170, as expected. Hagen is an open book, nobody in the Bundesliga plays the way they do with pure run'n'gun and many short possessions, with an average of 180 points total in their home matches. Göttingen are their closest copy, a team with no real center, and even Hagen's coach say they play a similar team. Due to the similar style of both teams, one can expect 10-15 more possessions than usual, which is REALLY a lot by European standards. It would make no sense to write this pick if one did not expect the match to go over the 180 point margin, which seems perfectly realistic in light of all of the above. Details

Frankfurt lead by coach Gordon Herbert have been a synonym for firm basketball for a few seasons, the defensive style, and that hasn't changed now. They score 73 points per game, conceded about as much, and despite all the injuries, they're decent. Right now, they have 5 wins in a row in all the competitions, and they conceded over 63 points only once, 72 against Braunschweig. They're playing against Oldenburg today, who showed what kind of defense they can play a few days ago. They left Spirou in Belgium at 62 points, scored 75. No doubt the guests have better offensive potential than the home team, but in the duels against defensively oriented teams, Oldenburg aren't playing nice basketball. Especially not when Frankfurt and Oldenburg face each other. In the last four seasons, they played eight times and the game never ended over 142 points, it went over 140 margin only once. In the last four duels, the points total was 134, 135, 128, and 123. In those matches, the coaches were Herbert and Machowski who are leading their teams today, as well. Details