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Playing against Macedon in these qualifiers has become somewhat of a standard, but the quality gap between them and other teams is extremely wide. The Brits must go for the win here if they want to keep a paper chance of getting the top spot. In Macedon the British team won by +25, witht he lead going even over 30, only for them to relax later in the game. In Lithuania the Macedonians lost by -42, and in Belgium -28. The Brits are a bit above the Belgian team in quality, somewhat stronger in the paint, and Macedon will find it hard to parry them there. The Macedon team concede an average of 95,3 points in these qualifiers. Britain scored 78 on them in an away match, and one can expect the home team to be even more efficient as the away team practically have no defense to speak of. In the first game Britain had 64 shots from the field, 23 assists, and none of the players spent more than 24 minutes on the court. Details

Macedonia are by far the weakest team in Group B, Lithuania the best one. There shouldn't be any uncertainty when it comes to score today, which should result in a less nervous game. Macedonia suffered a heavy defeat in Lithuania in the first round. They lost by 42 points and they allowed 108. It was a run'n'gun game on both ends as Lithuania had 70 field goal attempts and 36 free-throws while Macedonia had 73 shots. Not only did they lose all 3 games by at least 25 goals, they allow an average of 93.3 points per game, the highest average in this competition. And as much as Macedonia are the weakest team in defense, Lithuania are definitely the best. The score an average of 88.7 points, 9 more than the second-placed Ukraine. On Sunday, Lithuanian scored 81 points against the defensively oriented Brits and played a 142-point game. Against a defensively sound Latvia, they played a 150-point game, 144 against Belgium, and all these teams are so far ahead of Macedonia which has a non-existent defense as they have allowed 108, 78 and 94 points in the three rounds so far. Details

Estonia have shown very little in the first two rounds of qualifications. The only team weaker than them are Luxembourg. They scored 58 points in the first round against Italy and 56 in the second against Latvia. Their score is 0-2 and the game against Portugal is their last chance to stay in the competition for Eurobasket. Considering their attacking problems, one can expect them to rely on defense. The Portuguese are not on a very high attacking level but 54 points in the last round was enough to beat the Italians. Portugal are not renowned for their physical power but they play a very aggressive game and they use the zone defense a lot. They lost in the preparation games agaisnt Slovenia by 49-56 and 53-64. They beat Macedonia by 52-47 and they played two games against Luxembourg in their typical style (46-70, 65-51). In terms of style, Portugal are similar to Germany and Estonia lost against them by 50-57 earlier this month. Details

The Lithuanian coach didn't say Belgium are a tricky opponent without a good reason. Strong Lithuania struggled in Belgium on Wednesday. The home team were in the game for a long time but one could see they lacked experience to keep up with the stronger opponents. They lost the match against the Brits in the last period in the first round, but they left a good impression in both games and they said they were happy and confident. Apart from two solid performances, they beat the Italians in a friendly by 76-51 and the Ukrainians by 81-76. The Macedonians, on the other hand, first suffered a major defeat against the Lithuanians by -42 points and then at home against the British by -25. They have huge ups and downs in their performances and they rely on their American player Givens, who cannot carry the whole team. The problem is that the British play a similar game like the Belgians, which means lots of aggression in defense which gives them easy points in offense. The Macedonians haven't shown too many improvements since last qualifications despite the effort from Givens. Details

Speaking of today's game, Alba's coach Saša Obradović said he'd prefer the chief referee tonight to be Robert Lottermoser, one of the best German referees. A slightly unusual statement, but logical given that the criterioon referees used in the first game was anything but fair. Anyone who saw that game could see that the Berlin team were called for a foul on any contact, which gave Bayern 50 free throws, as opposed to 22 by Alba. Realistically speaking, it's impossible to win a game in which the opponent gets 28 more free throws. Had the figure been lower, I'm convinced that Alba would be in the game to the end. We can expect the refs to do better today. They can hardly maintain the same criteria in Berlin, which should allow Alba to play a more aggressive defense. Bayern played four away game in this playoff, and dominated only one (Ludwigsburg). The last one they decisively lost in Oldenburg, and it's common knowledge how hard it is to beat Alba in Berlin (2 defeats all season long). 13 000 are fans expected to cheer for Alba in the O2 World arena, where Bayern already got hurt bad once this season, although back then they had Nihad Đedović for whom the season is now over. Details

Poland are looking for a win against relaxed Montenegro who have already secured their place at the EC. Poland haven't and they have to go for the win today and in the last round in the Czech Republic. If the hosts were to win today, they would need just a win in the last round and they wouldn't have to go for goal difference. Poland definitely have the quality. They lost in Montenegro by 21-25 last year but they will face a much weaker squad today. The Montenegrins have cadet tournament coming up in Macedonia. Considering they have already qualified for the EC, they have decided to give their youth a chance to get some experience ahead of such an important competition. So the European champions will feature seven players from their cadet team (age group '96 and younger). Among the first-squad players not included are keeper Barjaktarević, defender Anđela Bulatović, first choice right wing Jovanka Radičević and their mover and shaker and the best young player in the world, according to EHF, Milena Knežević. Their right win Radmila Petrović and defenders Suzana Lazović and Sara Vukčević are also out. So, the only experienced players to lead this youthful team are Katarina Bulatović and Majda Mehmedović in the first line-up and Biljana Pavičević and Andrea Klikovac, who usually don't play a major role. Details

The Lithuanians showed what their greatest strength is in the preparations for the qualifications. It's definitely their offense. They basically play run and gun basketball, they have really fast players, even the centers run the counter attacks easily. That's how they scored 86 points against Sweden, 95 and 81 against China, and 82 against the very defensively oriented Latvia. Today, they're playing against the Macedonians whose quality isn't on that level. They're a very humble national team that completely depends on the naturalized players Givens and Paris, but only one of them can play in the official matches. Even with both Americans in the team, they lost against the really weak Portugal in the preparations, to Bulgaria with 12 points difference and then 31 points difference, while they conceded 79 and 83 points. The imbalance between the naturalized and national players is pretty big, Lithuania are better in every segment and the guests can hardly keep up, if at all, with the home team's fast rhythm here. Details

Even before the final series started, it was expected that the home court will play a big role. Turow took advantage of the fact they were ahead of Stelmet in the season, won both home games and now have a 2-0 lead. They were dominant in the first game, but Stelmet played much better in the second, and lost only in the final moments, with on three pointer by Turow tipping the balance in their favor. The title holders played solid defense, and I expect them to be even tougher today, with the stakes being as high as they are. Should Stelmet lose, a 3-0 lead would make the title practically lost. Not only that, the Euroleague would also be gone, which would be an even bigger blow. The Stelmet bench did almost nothing in the first two matches, and they have a lot of room for improvement there. The teams are pretty even in quality, and home court usually tips the balance in such cases. While Turow have lots of room there to recover should they lose, Stelmet are playing what is the most important game of the season for them, and one can expect them to perform adequately. I expected the handicap to be even higher, so this is definitely worth playing as it is now. If you wish to avoid the handicap, a clean win by the home team also gives solid odds. Details

Trefl didn't make the best use of absence of Stelmet's main center Dragičević and they lost their fifth decisive game and failed to reach the grand finale. Now they have the series to take the third spot against Rosa. The game is best out of three and the home team have a much better situation ahead of today's game. The visitors are without their best player and their only center Kirka Archibeque (13.7 points + 8.6 rebounds in the season). Without him, Rosa had a run of 6 defeats in a row, and he came back to help them reach the semi-finals. Trefl are much stronger in the paint. Their trio Leonczyk-Majstorović-Nicholson seems dominant against Rosa's centers who are down to two names, but besides Archibeque, they don't even have a real center in their roster. Apart from him, Jezske and Radke are out of action, who are no so important, but in these circumstances, they could use them. Trefl have clearly stated they will want to get the bronze medal and they would give their best. They surely have more quality than Rosa who will have to rely on their perimeter shot, while Trefl are expected to dominate the rebounds, they have a better bench and defense. Details

Stelmet lost the center Vladimir Dragicevic mid-game last Thursday, their best scorer and player (14 points+5.3 jumps in season), after which, the team's playing fell apart. Without him, they're left with pick games, which Trefl used and completely closed off the opponent's offensive options with an aggressive defense on the backcourt. Stelmet can hardly repeat numbers so bad like in the last match, and Dragicevic was suspended because of the unsportsmanlike conduct, and definitely won't play today. Stelmet complained, and the disciplinary committee will make their decision 2 hours after the match starts at latest, but it would be a big surprise if the original decision was changed, because Polish league players have been suspended for far less this season. Dragicevic scored 18 points and had 6 jumps in the third match of this series, he scored 16 in the first, and his team celebrated in both. Trefl showed they can deal with Stelmet's offense, and their only chance is to play the right way defensively. Today's match is the deciding one, and we can expect a pretty feisty match. Details

The stats show what kind of series this has been. Neither of the 4 games so far has seen over 133 points, Oldenburg have not gone over 69 points in 40 minutes and Telekom have gone only once but when they were at home (72). In last two games, the regular time ended with the identical score of 63-63 and the game was won by the respective home team. The offensive players are struggling a lot, both teams torment each other with great offense and the attacks often end with unreasonable shots and forced individual action. Telekom's coach said they are forcing Oldenburg to play the game they are not used to, they are not allowing them to get into their offensive rhythm and this will be the goal for today. They are playing the fifth decisive game and one can expect the same level of defensive intensity. The margin set for today is 20 points higher than the total number of points in regular time of last two games so it's definitely worth taking. Details

113 points were scored in game 1 of the series, 162 in game 2. Neither of those are realistic, I think, when it comes to Liege and Okapi, but the margin set here is too high, in my opinion. There are a few reasons for that, most important one is the fact this is an extremely important match that will decide which team gets through to semi final. Liege has the second best defense in the league, they concede 70 points on average, and the defense is doing particularly good home. For example, they met Okapi 6 times this year, three times home where they won 68-62, 73-58, and 65-48. Okapi are much more efficient home than they are away. They went over this margin away only against one of the worst performing clubs in the league Willebroek, and 149 points were scored in the game against the defense-oriented Spirou. The problem for Okapi is, Liege are very aggressive, they dominate the key, and shouldn't struggle 5-on-5. They already proved they can stop Okapi's top player Raivi. Besides, Okapi concede an average of 71,4 points away, with their games ending with 146 points scored. Games against teams such as Willebroek and Brussels are, of course, included in the stats, and help things look better. Details

First two games were a close call. Helios won in Ljubljana, Olimpija won in Domzale. The crucial game is taking place at Stozice today. It is a game that will, in a way, decide both clubs' season. The stakes are as high as they get, we can expect a very fierce and aggressive game as a result. The home team are under more pressure. Helios have done a lot by now. Even if they don't reach the final, they'll be able to say that the season was very good because they got very close to Krka and Olimpija, their financial problems in spite. The Ljubljana-based team would definitely be affected more by the defeat. The injuries are their problem currently - Gaulius and Salin won't be able to help today, Brodnik and Vladovic probably either. Their team will consist of only 7 seniors, and that is a chance for the visiting team. Sagadin has a lot more players to choose from, he's been using all 12 of them, which can be a great advantage in series such as this one, when games take place every two days. Helios were just as good as the opponent in the last two games, with a bit more luck, they could have been in the final by now. The teams are much closer quality-wise than the margin suggest, I think, and I don't expect Olimpija to win by 10 or more points. Details

It may sound a bit odd, but Alba got their wins against Ulm mostly through offense. Their fast offensive style suits Alba who have had an average of about 70 shots per game this season and have been taking advantage of Ulm's softer approach. The fact is that they flopped in offense on Thursday. They stayed under 80 points, but one gets the impression that was more of an exception than a rule. In five out of six H2H this season, Alba has scored 86 points or more, and have gotten 86 or more in all away games. I think it's impossible to see Logan have another 1/12 field goal and Hammond and Jagla getting 1/9. Radošević has completely recovered and can be expected in a much better form than a few days ago. Ulm are practically without a real center and a very short line-up, which Alba should be able to make us of. Details

It may seem like I'm pushing this bet, but Helios's win in Ljubljana has completely changed the balance of power in this series. If Helios had nothing to lose in the first game, they certainly have something today. This is a huge chance for them to reach the finals after many years and they will surely be under pressure. Coach Zmago Sagadin cannot use reverse psychology and say Olimpija are the favorites now. I doubt that Helios will have a good shooting day like on Tuesday when they scored 9 three-pointers in the first period. Union will have to respond with a much stronger defensive performance as they were really weak a few days ago All in all, a lot is at stake today. A defeat would mean elimination for Olimpija while a defeat for Helios would put them in Ljubljana for the tie-breaker which will be much more difficult than in the first game. I expect a much tighter game and defensive domination, that is, a performance that is always present in games between these two clubs, with the exception of last game. Details

The margin may seem low at first but there are more reasons I see this match going under 140 points. One of them is the problems Union have had with injuries. One of their top scorers Galius is out for the season and judging by the latest information from the media, their important shooter Sasu Salin is also out, and he was the top scorer in the last game in which Olimpija beat Helios by 92-52. It's hard to expect such a convincing performance from Olimpija once again. Vladović and Brodnik are doubtful, which leaves coach Pipan with only 7 fully ready players. I don't think the home team will make this into a run'n'gun game. Helios are not naive. Zmago Sagadin knows how to handle Olimpija. He has already beaten them once this season and they lost in the Cup semi-finals by 57-59. Domžale are one of the best defensive teams in the league, the atmosphere is tight and the defensive intensity should be at the top level. Details

Spirou have their faith in their own hands ahead of the last round. If they manage to beat Liege, they will most definitely finish the regular season in the second position, which means they will get straight through to play off semi final. The most important thing for Spirou is their form improved just when it was supposed to. They won three consecutive games, and lost only to Oostende in the last six rounds - after two over times. It's important to note that Spirou now have nine equally good players at their disposal. The are now in for an important game against Liege, who have been doing quite good, but whose form diminished lately. Spirou won their first head to head game this season by 27 points, but Liege won the second one in Charleroi. Spirou won their last head to head game which took place mid-April. It seems like Liege has been struggling in every game lately. They have done games since April, and won only three. They won the last two against really bad teams (Willebroek and Pepinster), and not convincingly. Spirou are one of the best home teams in the league. Details

A match between Antwerp and Brussels isn't one of those that don't decide anything in the last round, and considering both club's style of playing, we can expect a great looking basketball. All three matches this season were full of points. 166 in the first, 178 in the second, and 158 in the third, in the beginning of April. In each of those, the Giants easily won. Still, we have to point out that Brussels' form got much better lately. Not defensively, they said they'll do that more the next season. In the last 10 rounds, they score 83.8 points per match, and concede 90.9. It means, they played matches with 174.7 points total. In the last seven rounds, they didn't go under the set margin. Antwerp are a better team defensively for sure, but this match doesn't mean anything for them. They can't go neither up nor down from the sixth place, and a few days before the playoffs, I doubt their defensive intensity will be the best possible. They're a team who play fast, are strong in transitions and against the meeker opponents, such as Brussels, they definitely can easily develop their style. Details

Whoever saw this quarterfinals series matches so far could have seen high tensions and a real basketball war. I expect the same today. It's the fourth match, extremely important. Slupsk know they have to win if they want to stay in, while Trefl will want to avoid the fifth match because the psychological advantage would be on the opponent's side in it. Slupsk showed on Wednesday how to win. The key is a tough and aggressive defense. They limited their opponent to 56 points and played a match with 125 points total. Nothing surprising considering the fact that Slupsk had their last eight wins where they left their opponents at 68 points or less. This becomes especially prominent in home matches, where they have 145 points per match. Trefl have 151.7 points per away match, but the stakes are huge today, both sides will be nervous, and I don't think we should expect a great looking basketball, but the fight for every ball, just like so far. Details

Here we have a match between a team with no particular motive and the away team who care great deal. While Willebroek will almost certainly end the season as bottom ranked, but will not get relegated as nobody is, Spirou are hunting for 2nd spot, and are currently a step away. They have one less victory than Mons, but a better score in mutual games. This means they'll wait for Mons to fumble and try to win both of the remaining games. The second spot is important as it brings direct entry to the semifinal. The home team scored six losses in a row, which coincides with an injury to their point guard, Luke Loucks, a player they just have no substitute for. They registered their newly arrived point guard Devin Gibson one day after the deadline, so he cannot play the Belgian league this season. They last faced Spirou end of March, when Spirou easily won by some 20 points. Willebroeks best players were swingman Dieter Souveryns with 22 points, and Loucks with 8 points and 6 assists. Most likely neither of them will be on court today, Loucks is certainly out, while Souveryns is unlikely to make it to the roster due to a foot injury. The away team have been in great form lately, losing only to Oostende in their last five rounds, after two overtimes. They recently beat the strong Mons team in an away game, and trampled all over Brussels with +30 on Sunday. One could see Spirou were motivated, both on offense and defense. Details