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Even before the first round of the Eurochallenge Cup started, the coach of Dutch Leiden stated that his team's main goal is to win home games, and it's pretty clear why. Leiden have performed rather poorly outside their home arena so far this season. Apart from the severe beating they took vs Cholet, they also lost to some rather average Dutch teams (Matrixx, Nijmegen, Den Helder). They are a very young team (about 23 years old on average) and it is clear that they are missing experience, especially in Europe. Kataja, on the other hand, are a home team that on their home court beat Cholet much more decisively than the score 76-70 suggests, and then clearly underestimated the Bakken Bears in Denmark and lost in a run 'n' gun match. This means they will not be short on motive today. Looking at their roster, the Finns are much better than the Dutch team, with much more experience. Rannikko played only 12 minutes vs Bakken due to ankle problems, but the home team say he will surely play today. Leiden are seriously struggling on offense, and Kataja are a team with great offensive, and their fast style of play will definitely not suit the away team. Details

I'm under the impression that the odds for this game were decided watching the total effect of these two clubs in the current championship, but the fac that CSKA are a different team than they were before the national team break was not taken into consideration. I expected the odds to be 1,45 or 1,50 for the Moscow's team win, because CSKA completed the player roster during the break. They were without their main players for the most of the season, team leader Radulov, and other 4-5 main players. Now, they're complete, and it shows on the ice. They defeated Omsk on Wednesday, and the uncomfortable Barys on Friday after that. They looked especially impressive in the defense because leaving Barys, who were in a shooting mood, with zero goals is not a simple task. Avtomobilist are better defensively then in the offense as well, but it's obvious that the 10 days break broke their rhythm. Defeats in Prague and Bratislava are the best indicators of that. Details

The departure of their dominant center John Bryant to Bayern has only made Ulm's game faster and forced them to base their game on fast transition and perimeter shots. The team is organized so that anyone but the centers can score a 3-pointer and represents a threat from outside. They have got 3 wins in the Eurocup so far and now they are not under much pressure. This weekend, they scored over 100 points and imposed their rhythm against Ludwigsburg that are renowned as a defensively-oriented team. Before that, they played a game with over 160 points and went over this margin against the defensive specialists from Ljubljana. Against Paris, they were left at 78 points but that was a far more convincing team than Varese. The Italian team conceded 105 against Sassari this weekend, and before that 98 against Valencia and 85 against Asvel at home. It is obvious their form and defense are not doing well and they are nowhere near the level from last season. Their type of game should be good for Ulm who could go over 80 points with their usual game. Details

Judging from their concept, there are few teams in the Polish league that fit Kotwica less than Asseco. The home team have one of the best defenses of the league, limiting their opponents to only 65 points on average, while the away team are scoring 70 on average. If Kotwica did not have a great shooting day in the last championship game, the figures would be much lower. The match vs Slask was just an exception, confirming the rule that Kotwica are having huge problems with offense this season. They lost a cup game vs Rosa on Sunday, by 50-106. Their biggest issue is organizing the game, and Asseco are known as a team that plays a very aggressive and tough defense. The away team also lack a strong center line that would take advantage of the absence of a classical center among the home team. Asseco faced Kotwice twice in the preseason, and scored a decisive victory both times (83-70, 67-49), even while they could not count on their best player A.J. Walton. Details

With this pick the context is much more important than bare figures. For example, Bayreuth lost their last four games and mostly played matches above the said margin, but their opponents were mostly top teams of the league (Bayern, Oldenburg, Brose, Ulm), against whom they could not keep up the same intensity on defense throughout the 40 minutes. Due to the losing streak, the home team are predicting a fierce game. Their opponent is Würzburg, in a local, so called Franken derby. These are always extremely aggressive games, and today should not be any different, considering the situation. Würzburg are in an even tougher situation. They have so far managed to score only one victory and coach Schröder is close to departure, but the players have said that they will do whatever they can on the court to avoid that. Würzburg have been playing much better defense in the last three rounds than at season's opening, managing to limit the run-and-gun Bremerhaven to only 63 points in the last round game. It is clear that the away team only stand a chance if they manage to put up a solid defense. On the other hand, the only two wins for the home team so far were those in which they limited their opponents to 67 and 49 points, in home games as well. Bayreuth and Würzburg played a 140 point game in the preseason. Details

Ukraine beat a pretty weak Romania, with some style, but today they are facing a much tougher opposition. The Ukranian coach Nazarov, the coach of Donbass - a team well-renowned for their defensive approach, said that he expects a real battle on ice and a really tough game. It is not surprising since the Poles lead by the Russian expert Zaharkin who's put together a compact and sensible team. They conceded their first and only goal in the regular time against the Hungarian hosts in the 59th minute and from boxplay. When comparing the last few games of Ukraine and Poland, the Ukrainians are missing several important forwards, exactly those players who scored in that game. Defense has been the best part of the Polish national team, their keepers are solid, they are well-organized and Ukraine are also playing strong hockey under Nazarov. Details

Betting on margins such as these would certainly not be worth it if they difference in quality between the teams weren't so huge. Ukraine beat Romania by 8-1 in their last WC Division I group B, and Romania will feature only 5 players from that squad, that is, their team will consists of mostly U21 players as they decided to take this tournament in Hungary as a preparation for their upcoming U20 World Cup. The coach said they've never used such a young senior team. Ukraine are coming with the same 14 players from the WC. Their selector is the coach of Donbass, Andrej Nazarov, who invited 10 players from the KHL and 8 of them play for Donbass. All Romanian players play in their domestic league and it is several steps below the Ukrainian league. The shot ratio at the WC was 55-13 in Ukraine's favor and we can expect something like that today. The Romanians are coming with a slightly reinforced junior team and a convincing win be the Ukrainians should not be in question. Details

Tartu Rock haven't entered the season in a really convincing manner. They've won only 2 of their first fie games in the Baltic League (lost against Zvaigzdes, Tonybet, and Juventus). According to the Estonian media, one could see that they are not really functioning well together. They rely on individual creations by point guard Simpson and center Lukovic and this could be a problem against the well-organized Latvian team. An additional problem are the numerous injuries. The two players from the starting line-up (Peciukevičius i Toome) and another two important players from the bench (Dorbek, Krissa) haven't been playing for a while and are in question for today's match. Ventspils, on the other hand, have no such problems. This is a well-organized team and they haven't made many changes during the summer. Coach Stelmahers has organized them well and they are doing particularly well in the defense. They've already faced Tartu in the pre-season and they won by 71-64. Ventspils definitely have more quality than the Estonians that have already lost to weaker teams this season. In my opinion, the odds for Ventspils do not take the home team's injury problems into consideration. Details

Telekom showed on Wednesday how good their offense can be. They played +200 points game against the tough Zaragoza. They conceded over 100, but still managed to win. Bonn team work better in a faster game, and that's old news. They scored 86 points in the away game in Oldenburg in the previous round. They have 180 points per game at home. Of course, Alba's defense is not on Hagen or Rasta's level, but the Berliners did break a little. Against Mitteldeutscher, and then against Virtus this week, they played a game where their defense was not the one from the beginning of the season. Telekom will be motivated by wanting to make up for the defeat against Alba in the Eurocup recently, where the home team couldn't score almost anything, and the game ended with +150 points. Telekom's shape is getting better, with five consecutive wins, and I expect that they'll pose a faster rhythm in front of their fans. Details

Polpharma didn't manage to leave the opponents under 80 points in the first three rounds, and before this game, they stated that their goal is to play a lot better defense. The home team's problems are injuries. Hicks didn't train with them since Wednesday (foot), and the substitute point guard Ovidijus Varanauskas has some thigh issues. It's similar with the young wing Kacper Radwanski (knee). All three of them are questionable for this game. Gdynia guests are known for their defensive game. They played against the weakest defense of the league in the last round, and that ended with 156 points, but Asseco didn't concede over 70 points in none of the first three rounds (70, 64, 65). They'll hardly be trying to outrun Polpharma because they played two games against them in the pre-season, and lost both (58-77, 66-74). Details

Tarnobrzeg have never beaten Turow, and judging by everything, this won't be the case today. The home team had a poor start of the season, their defense is as weak as it was last year, that is, the weakest in the Polish league. Their game comes down to individual performance of few Americans who take things easy. They have lost all 3 games so far and conceded +82 points in all of them. The were defeated by Slask some 10 days ago by 15 points, and by Prokom by 16 points last weekend. And Slask and Asseco are nowhere near Turrow's level. In addition, Tarnobrzeg have many injury problems. Allen started this season unprepared and their best shooter Simon is also under question, while their 215-cm center Przybyszewski injured his ligaments and now they will have to use 2-meter tall players as centers. Turow are the strongest in the paint with Kulig, Dylewicz, Žigeranović...They have a wide bench, they are better in all positions, especially in defense. The only questionable thing here is Turow's motivation, but considering they lost in the last few seconds against Anwil, and considering their loss in the VTB league against Nymburk, I don't think they'll lack any motivation. Details

Stelmet are the reigning champions, but this year's team is radically different from the one last year. The players are not organized the right way and this has left the biggest mark in the defense. In this respect, it is clear the will need more time to organize things. They conceded 101 and 94 against Bayern and Unicaja, respectively. Those games are not a real measure for today's match, as their opponents are not as strong, but Stelmet's game against Trefl ended in number of points conceded over this margin. They allowed 81 points in their last round. Slupsk are a well-organized team and the entire team player the whole game in full force, their shooting guards are solid and prefer faster pace. They are a home-oriented and highly motivated team. In four games they played against Stelmet last year, they were left under 80 points only on one occasion. Details

As the home coach said, Ugra are waiting for their injured players to return. They are currently missing six important players, including 3 crucial defensemen and this was apparent lately. They got four defeats in a row and conceded a total of 19 goals. They conceded a total of 13 in last 2 games, 7 against Sibir and 6 against the offensively poor Neftekhimik. Coach Shepelev is complaining about the fatigue of his team and they are forced to play with 3 lines. One should also mention the pretty poor form of both their goalies. Mikhail Biryukov was subbed in the game before last after conceding his seventh goal only to be subbed on Saturday after four packs whizzed by him. Alexei Kuznetsov didn't exactly have a fine day at the office after him, and his form is not too good. Alexei Kuznetsov did not make a name for himself later on. Ugra concedes 3 goals on average this season (3,70 in last 10 rounds). On the other hand, Ufa score 3,60 goals on average. This is an offensively-minded team that has some problems with absent defenders, but all their crucial forwards are in solid form. They played a game in their style and scored 4 against Avtomobilist and conceded 7. In the last 15 days, the scored 4 against SKA, 8 against Severstal, 3 against Lokomotiv, 3 against Lev, 5 against Dinamo Riga...And all these teams have a much better defense than Ugra, and the 2,5 goals margin on Marathon seems like a solid option. Details

I wrote a tip for a Alba's under against Zaragoza a few days ago, but the situation is completely different today. Alba's opponent for today are Mitteldeutscher, a team with pretty poor defense so far, a team much weaker than Alba and one can hardly expect them to match their opponents who are in great form. The away team are simply too soft and don't have the physical strength in the paint. Ulm almost scored 100 points against them in the last round, and they concede 84 points on average. Tübingen, Bundesliga's worst attacking team, almost scored 80 points against them. But the momentum is even more important than the numbers themselves. Albe entered this season rather well. They beat Zaragoza and this gave them the psychological motivation. They are very inspired at home and went over this margin against a much stronger Ludwigsburg's defense earlier this month. Logan is in great form, Redding is also doing well. I think they will have no problem organizing their game as Mitteldeutscher haven't shown much of anything that would stop the attacks of the Berlin team. Details

Under coach Obradovic, Alba are putting the emphasis on defense which they clearly proved in the several first matches of the season. They haven't conceded more than 67 points in any of the official matches yet. Offensively, they are not at that level. The efficient matches against Ludwigsburg and Telekom are not the real indicator because those were matches already resolved in the first 15 minutes or so. It is hard to expect something like that today against Zaragoza. Last week in Eurocup the Spanish team left Dexia with 56 points and on weekend they allowed 66 points to Canarias in the national championship. They have a wide selection of players who can play the entire 40 minutes on high level. So far Alba played several matches in the season against the defensively stronger teams and they would always end up below this limit. Against Artland 66, Würzburg 75 and in preseason they scored 63 against Karsiyaka and 68 against Besiktas... I expect that the home team will have a difficult task today. With the team under of the home team, the total under of points is also an option. Details

The 144,5 points margin is pretty low, but Anwil and Asseco are typical defensively oriented teams who continued with their performances from last season. The home team allowed 61 points against Slask away, and that was an offensive team they were up against. Asecco changed their entire squad during the summer, they haven't got too many options up front, but their coach is Slovenian David Dedek who will use the same recipe he used in Start last season. This will not be attractive basketball. They allowed 65 against Koszalin in the first round. Anwil beat Asseco in the pre-season 74-60. You could already see then that the defense will be their dominant style of play, even though it was a preparation game. Details

So far Bayreuth showed that they're an excellent home team and they didn't dwell too much on their conclusive loss against Bayern in the previous round. Bavarians were clearly a better team and Bayreuth players were pacing themselves a little. That won't be the case today. They're playing against Oldenburg , who traditionally don't do well in Bayreuth's arena. They've won only one match there in the last three years and that was in the final second three years ago. We shouldn't put too much emphasis on that, of course, but the fact is that Bayreuth coach Predrag Kunic won the championship title with Oldenburg and he knows that team well. He beat today's opponent in April and he had a much weaker team back then. Oldenburg is so far undefeated in the championship, but last weekend at home against Trier they showed a lot of weaknesses and they played very poor defense on Wednesday against Sassari. Bayreuth should have the upper hand at paint. Former Oldenburg player Burrell is a dominant figure under the hoop, they're a typical home team and I think they might have a chance to win this match. Details

Kotwica caused a lot of trouble in the first round for the reigning champions from Zielona Gora but it is evident that Stelmet is not near the level from the last season. The team from Kolobrzeg used that fact in an excellent way but lost in the extra time. However, I think they will have a lot more problems against Slupsk today. The away team are very aggressive in play, they have excellent defensive players on guard positions and they are also physically dominant in the paint. The team is well consolidated under coach Urlep. In the preseason Slupsk won against Kotwica 90-49. Of course, that match is not a valid indicator but already then it was visible how many problems Kotwica have with almost constant pressure of the opponent. The away team have two excellent solutions for each position, they can keep the intensity in the defense throughout the match and I see that as the main reason for their win this evening with around ten points difference. Details

There's not much to say here. They should make use of Novokuznetsk's current situation. The main goalie and best player Nika Hovien's injury weakened them additionally so on Thursday they didn't manage to surprise Barys who were definitely playing at a lower level than usual. That was their 14th defeat in a row. Today, in my opinion, they're up for an even tougher job, despite the fact that Omsk are low in the table, and that they've won in two out of the last 13th matches. Since they've fired goalie Lassila and brought two experienced ones (Mazin-Garon), things have took a turn for the better. Coach Milos Riha needed more time, but he managed to arrange the defense. That was visible in the last four rounds. Against the strong Sibir two days ago they had to score a victory, but there was no realization. Defensively, they seemed stable. The new goalies obviously brought some sense of security in the back lines, and the offense is still one of the better ones in the East. Regarding the bad opening of the season, Omsk can't allow themselves to waste any other points in meetings like these. They have a better quality, they need the points, and I expect them to be highly motivated. Details

Novokuzneck are in a series of 13 consecutive defeats and it is hard to find a single reason why that run should not continue. They have the weakest offense in the league and score only 1.67 goals per game and they have one of the worst defenses in the Eastern conference.Today they will be additionally weakened. They lost their beast player, goalie Nika Hovinen, due to concussion and they can thank him for those few points they have won. So far he has had a 92.4% save efficiency. That is why against the Barys they will start with either Nikita Loszkin (4.44 goals against per game and 87.5 save efficiency) or Illya Sorokin (5.16 goals against per game and 87.2% save efficiency). These are two young and inexperienced goalies with a very few games in KHL. Sorokin played their last game after Hovinen got injured and in 25 shots he faced he conceded 5 goals and had only 80% save efficiency. The visiting team have by far the best offense in the Eastern conference and they score over 4 goals per game. They are at the very top of the conference and so far they lost on the road only in Zagreb. Their style of play does not suit the home team, they are a better team in all departments and are especially better now when the home team has goalie problems. Details