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Sonderjyske got out of the first round with the "good" -4 against Odense who played with eight players. In the second round Aarhus "froze" them at -15, and today they're playing against a team who are after the four best Danish teams and who showed best offense game at the start of the season. Slowly, but surely, the predictions that Sonderjyske don't have the quality are coming true and they'll probably spend a single season in this company. The draw is very limited, in the offense everything is advancing over only two players who played for best Danish clubs in the previous seasons, but they were usually at the bench. Madsen and Baunsgaard are to be dealt with by a good defense which Randers have. They have a good back line, bit width, right back Camilla Dalby returned after two seasons to her place of success, and with 16 goals in two matches she's among the leading scorers of the league. The realistic difference in the quality imposes us to pick a double digit win by Randers. Details

The Germans are setting off to defend their 2013 title today against Hungary in a qualifying game. This is the first match after the Canada WC, where Germany finished in spot 4 (only). That didn't make anyone happy since their goal was the final or third place. Two almost irreplaceable players decided to retire after that WC - goal keeper Angeler and forward Sasic. Two other defender Petter and Hennig are out with an injury today, as well as forward Marozsan. Even though the start of this qualifying cycle is being called the age of new and younger German team, the fact is only three of the them are to make a debut while the other 16 already played quite a few games. Most of them want to prove themselves after the WC and with the Olympics coming up next year. Expectations from the potetial 4 in offense are expected. Bremer and Petermann are expected to get more chance in offense alongside Mittag and Pop. Both of them were doing great in youth ranks. Bremer moved on to Lyon this summer after a great last season.

The difference in quality between them and Hungary is massive. For comparison's sake, Hungary recorded bad defeats against serious teams in the last two qualifying cycles. They lost to Norway twice in group stage (0-5, 0-6) and twice to France in WC 2015 qualifiers 4-0 and twice to Finland (the same final score).

Germany almost never met such a team in the past few years but they still plan to be very determined. They beat Romania 5-0, Spain 5-0, Switzerland 4-1, Turkey 10-0 in EC 2013 qualifiers home. In qualifiers for the 2015 WC, they beat Russia 9-0, Croatia 4-0, Slovenia 4-0, Slovakia 9-1, Ireland 2-0. Hungary played a goalless draw against Slovakia early last month in a test game while the have a 3-1 and 1-3 win and loss to Romania and a win over Slovenia 2-1. Since the difference in quality is at least two levels, I expect Germany to win 5-0 or 6-0 even if they hold back a bit.
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Both teams are very ambitious at the start of the new season. Celle want to make it into playoffs after struggling to avoid relegation for a few years. 8 of their players left but 4 new acquisitions promise a better quality game for the new season. Their opponents, the newly promoted Dortmund are much more ambitious and aiming for the top in the very first season. They signed some well-experienced German internationals, two Hungarian players and left back from Oldenburg that makes a completely new team compared to last season with 8 new players and without 11 that left this summer.

Home team's offense will be at a new dimension as their test games suggest. Celle first beat second-tier Kirchhof 34-23 late last month and then Oldenburg 37-36 in a dress rehearsal on September 4th. As for Dortmund, they will start the season with injury struggles. Most importantly, starting goal keeper Voltering and Burrekers, who was there last season, won't play today. That leaves them with a 21-year-old Hungarian goal keeper, who joined the team only three weeks ago, as the only option. Three other players are on the injury list. Dortmund played three test games, two against top division team Bad Wildungen (30-27,23-26), one against the second-tier HSG Bensheime (31-25) and one in the German Cup first round against lower-league team Birkenau (35-24). What coach Barna is not happy at all is their defense game and 24 goals they conceded to a team that is not Budesliga level. Given the lack of organization at Dortmund, who do have a great offense potential, but injury struggles as well (especially regarding goal keepers), and the better offense formation at Celle, I think the 50-goal margin is at least 2-3 goals short. Details

Less than 10 days ago, these two teams played a match at 59 goals on this same court in the Danish cup. It could have gone over 60. Why believe this match will end within the margin of 50-55 goals? It's simple. The defenses were non-existent in that match. Silkeborg were very efficient with 70%, and almost two thirds of the goals were scored by three players. Nykobing were about 60% efficient, which is great, but they had almost no defense. Those number can hardly repeat themselves today, especially because Silkeborg will be scanned better. That their offensive numbers aren't realistic are obvious from the Cup match before this one, they scored only 13 against Randers. That's just too little, and the realistic capacity of Silkeborg's offense are a medium between 22 and 25 goals.
The home team's goalie wasn't brilliant in that mentioned Cup match, but will definitely try her best to avoid that today, and she will contribute more defensively. The home team's coach, Agesen, has been talking lately about how his defense should be more compact and movable, which means they should give a good result today already. Details

For the first time this season Raelingen will play among the elite first league clubs. They didn't have time to reconstruct themselves too much - they brought two players with first league experience, right back O'Sullivan and Dahl Christensen from Oppsal, while they lost one of the best players, junior Marie Lystad who so far played as a pivot. In a check-up before the start of the season, as part of the third round of the Norway Cup, Raelingen lost to Stabaek (30-32).

Nordstrand didn't change much. They lost one of their best players, right wing Graesholt who went to Larvik, but they brought three young players, one right back Mathilde Rivas Toft (she will miss the start of the season due to an injury). They have Martine Wolf as the pivot. Nordstrand were pretty active during the past month, they have four wins and four defeats. In the last match at the start of this week, as part of the Norway Cup, they've beaten the home Fredrikstad 22-19.

I think Raelingen didn't even have time nor do they have the capability for the first league teams, and that we'll see this today. Let's just add that at the same time last year Nordstrand beat today's host as the part of the Norway Cup with 28-22. Details

Ideal teams and ideal moment to see a match close to 60 goals. Holstebro's offense was the second most efficient last season, they are going into the new season with the league's top scorer, left back Jetta Hansen, and the organization of plays is in hands of Laerke Moller who was one of the key players last season in the fast pace forced by Holstebro. They now have one of the best players in the world at the left wing, Norwegian Herrem, who has great offensive quality. In each of the eight pre-season games, Holstebro scored at least 27 goals. Viborg, on the other hand, changed almost their entire roster, unlike last season they are now full in all positions, except goalkeeper where, with national team member Poulsen, they have a young player from junior team as a substitution. They acquired fast organizer Line Uno, they have great potential in the offense and there was no lack of efficiency in the pre-season games, but defense was a big problem. In the last three games before the season, they conceded 29 goals against Arhus, 26 against Ringkobing, a team struggling with injuries, and 26 against second league team Bjeringbro in the Danish Cup. The head-to-head match tradition also goes in favor of this bet, and it says that there were 8 overs on this margin in the last 10 games. Details

At the start of the season, Sonderjyske, rookies in the Danish elite, are a mystery, since they haven't played a single pre-season game against a Danish team, and their pre-season results in the two weeks in Germany were oscillating. They won twice and lost twice to Fuchse Berlin, who are a mediocre Bundesliga team, they also lost to a team from the German Third league. Player-wise, they are a young team, we know that. Most of them don't have any top league experience and their bench is not as good. On the other side we have Odense who have this year have a team for the Top 5, starting with Brazilian Masson at the goal, through back players Adler, Haugsted and Jacobsen to Iversen, they are all national-team level players. Last week they demolished Ringkobing (34-26) in the Danish Cup. Unexpectedly major injury of their middle back, Nadia Offendal, during the match against Ringkobing, can partially ruin their plans at the start of the season and affect their quality against the best teams in Denmark, but that shouldn't be a problem in the match against a team who are one of the main favorites to return to the lower league after only one season in the top league. Odense have in their squad experienced Stine Svangard, who got solid amount of playtime in the last two season for Randers, and three seasons before that she was the main organizer and one of the best players in Sonderjyske. The realistic quality difference between these two teams is close to double digit number of goals, limitation on the middle back position at Odense might influence the goal difference and leave it in the margin from 5 to 8 goals. Details

Two wins (first over Leipzig 37-24 and last night over Podravka 25-19) saw Vardar secure a spot in the final, meaning this game will decide which team will battle it out for the 3rd spot. I think that the results against Vardar were the main reason for Podravka to become the favorite here, but game-wise, they do not deserve that. Vardar went full power in the Leipzig match with Lekic, Penezic, Damjanovic and other stars spending almost 60 minutes on the floor. Lekic and Sokac didn't play against Podravka at all, while Penezic played only the first half. Kastratovic and Pytlic changed a lot during the match. At one point the entire back line was made up of substitute players. Leipzig lost another important player Anne Muller in between the two season, after Sophie Roskie. But they acquired one of the top scorers in Bundesliga, left back Minevskaja, the second best scorer of last season and the most effieint player of the season before. Also, Mietzner from Thuringer joined but isn't here with an injury. Podravka, on the other hand, changed the entire back line. Tatari, Trifunovic, Zivkovic and Elez are no longer at the club. Frankovic, Milosevic, Krisnik and Dezic joined to step in for them. That is a taented back line but they need to spend much time together to be doing their best. Leipzig, on the other hand, have German national team back line consisting of Minevkaja, Saskia Lang and Anne Hubinger, and Kudlacz from Poland, together with goal keeper Schulke. I think they are therefore quite underestimated and we have to take advantage of that. Details

Viborg are opening the new season with an away game against Bjerringbro. It's a Danish Cup game (round of 16), which Vibrog will play with a reshuffled lineup. They have 9 new players and the new coach Heine. The back line is brand new since 9 players left the team. Only back player Skov, goal keeper Poulsen and right wing Lyksonborh and pivots Balle and Thomsen stayed. The Danish international Norgaard, who joined as a substitute for Fikserova is the biggest new star, alongside Bognar and Bohme. New potential middle back is Uno, a young player who had a great season in Arhus. Viborg played 6 test games and won all 6 (China 32-25, Muratpasa 28-26, Ajax Kopenhagen 31-23, Vendyssel 38-23, SK Arhus 36-29, Ringkobing 27-26).

Bjerringro finished as the fourth best team in the first division and has the ambition of finishing in the top three in order to get into playoff for the top division. Their team has not changed almost at all and there are also some more experienced players that played at Voborg and Silkerborg the previous season. Last year, they were the third most efficient offense of the second division.
Coach Heine talked about being happy with fast breaks and about how his team needs more time after their last match. Those are the two things that affected my decision to go with this tip (that there will finish at close to 60 goals). We have the result from the head-to-head from the very stage of the Cup, which Viborg won 36-24 last season. Details

The Russians and the Danes were the favorites before the tournament began, and then confirmed it by getting placed to the Final, but Hungary were right behind, and I think they'll get the 3rd place today.
The Hungarians played 17 matches since November 2014, and got 14 wins, one draw (Denmark 27-27), and two defeats, one from Denmark at this EC (30-33), and the other from Russia here, 24-33. They got beaten by better teams. The Russians did crush them, but they were an even opponent to Denmark, and it was losing focus and the lack of rotation that influenced their defeat. They have a great back line, and good results from the pre-season, but what's worth pointing out from this EC is the big difference in the number of balls lost offensively. The Hungarians had 50 till this match, and the Romanians 83, but also the turnovers, the Hungarians had 18 and the Romanians 8 total.
The semifinal was a gift from heaven for the Romanians. They already accepted that they won't be in top eight, and then the Spaniards beat the Germans in a sensational match, and Romania got to the main phase of the EC with only one win, then playing their best two matches, against Slovenia (35-24) and Sweden (28-21). Still, even the Romanian fans admit they're not really a generation that look promising.
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Both these teams basically ended the EC - they won their playoff matches for places 9-12 against Netherlands (Spain) and Norway (Germany). They got placed to top 10 teams and will get placed to the WC next year directly.
The Germans can be content with the 9th place, but there's also one big motive. They played Spain in the last round of the group phase of this competition. They only needed one point to be among the top eight teams. Spain seemed to lack interest, they had two defeats and didn't stand a chance to get to the main phase of the tournament. The Germans were leading for most of the time, but then the Spaniards woke up and ended up beating Germany 26-29. Because of that, the Romanians, who lost any hopes by that point, got to top eight instead of Germany. Either way, this is the Germans' chance to get even. They are the better team, and they earned to be in the top six teams, while the Spaniards weren't even expected to get to top 10 before the tournament began. Spain rely on a single player offensively, the right back Mbengue who is dominant physically, but can be shut down with a good defense. They don't force fast offenses, they rarely profit from fastbreaks, they lose a lot of balls offensively (21 in that duel against Germany, while the Germans lost only 10). The Germans have a better offense, their wings are more efficient, as well as the goalies, they make lot less mistakes in the offense, and they're also more motivated to win today. Details

The circumstances before the first match between these two at the beginning of the EC were different. Macedonia were technically and tactically ready for that one, they were well rested, and the coach used Ristovska as the right back, which surprised the Lithuanians, and was one of the key for Macedonian win. That match showed an evened out first half-time where each team scored one goal before conceding one. In the second, Macedonia used the big number of mistakes the Lithuanian offense made, and the goalies were more efficient, getting to +4 in the end.
Today, the two teams playing here are really tired, but considering the rotations and width, that's more evident in the Macedonian team. They already have a limited roster, and the back Stojanovska is out. She usually stars as the right back because there's no one better to take that position, but she rotates in all three back positions, and is a good player defensively. The Lithuanians are more motivated, and they have the left back Ivanauskaita. She's currently the third best scorer of the EC, and her average in the last matches will definitely keep her at that spot, maybe she even gets a better one. I expect the team that makes less mistakes will win, and that the difference will be 1-2 goals for whichever team wins. Details

This will be the sixth match in eight days for both teams, the rhythm is too hard, and its influence is especially visible in Macedonia's last two matches. The lack of good bench, rotation based on only nine players, complete burden on only three players in the offense, playing without the mobile forward, it all summed up in the EC finish. Portugal are more dominant physically, they have a bigger rotation, and they did fail result-wise here, but their generation is among the top ten European teams. They got to the semifinal and won the 4th place in EC 2013, cadet competition, and they beat Macedonia while getting ready for the EC 39-26. The starting team from that period remained almost the same for this EC, so in conditions like these, two matches away from the end of the EC, the least we can expect is that Portugal will win by 4-5 goals difference. Details

Serbia almost secured their position in the playoffs for spots 9 through 12 and don't have to win this. Lithuania have a chance for reaching that same playoff and need a win in this match but the outcome of the Macedonia and Croatia match will also play a role. Either way, Lithuania don't have a good defense. It falls apart after some 20 minutes, which resulted in Lithuania being the team that concede most goals here (134, some 34 on average). But Lithuania also scored 97 goals, which is more than some better teams. The concept o their game has not chanced in the last three years, as the resulted from qualifying games this year suggest. In the crucial qualifying match for this EC, the played a match at 60 goals against the Czech Republic, just like those from two years ago. When Croatia and Macedonia games here finished with more than 55 goals, I don't see a reason for this one against Serbia not to finish in the same manner. Serbia are much better here in offense than those two teams. Details

Romania partly made amends for the unsuccessful EC and the fact they didn't reach the round of 16 with a win over Sweden in the last group stage round. Sweden had nothing to play in that game since they ready secured the top spot in the group, which helped Romania win. Still, the great criticism the team had to deal with after two opening defeats bore fruit. They went on to display a much better-organized game and now need to keep on doing it to finish in at least spot 9. This rival is, when compared to their group stage opponent, the easiest one. Belarus showed they have neither power nor technical skills to stand up to better European teams for more than 30-35 minutes. They lost all three group stage games by 7 or more goals. Romania are better than all of their group stage opponents (Norway, Spain, Portugal). Belarus lost two test matches to Russia by 10 goals and the EC qualifier to Denmark by 13. This is a chance for this Romanian generation to show they are not done yet. Details

If we draw a comparison between these two teams, we can conclude that Macedonia improved their game significantly and grew more after three years this generation spent together. This year's EC confirmed it. Macedonia were in a group with better rivals, where they won a point against Russia, one of the favorites for a medal. The Russians didn't do their best obviously but still, Macedonia deserved that point. They were better individually and even got close to winning. The have the top scorer of this EC so far (Sara Ristova, 22 goals). Ristova can play at any position on the right and even take on the middle back position if necessary. The goal keepers are great as well (10 saves more than Serbian GKs) and their wings are too. They are 2-2 in test games this season but Macedonia won the first ones of the two. The last ones were played in Macedonia, first of which had all the quality of an official match with rosters that are mostly playing key roles here. Another problem for Serbia is definitely the absence of Zivkov, their main creative force. Right back Vukajlovic will step in, which will affect her efficiency, or Saronic, who is not good enough yet. The value here is at Macedonia definitely. Details

Before the European Championship started, this match was timed as a duel for the first place in the group. These two teams have the best background in the last two years. Sweden secured the first place of the group and have two points for the main round, regardless of how this and the other group match end. On the other hand, Romania got eliminated from the fight for the placement to the top eight European national teams despite being the current world cadet champion. So, both teams will use tactic variations, the Swedes don't have to play the defense aggressively, they can spare their roster for the main round which will be played in two days. From the Romanians' statements, they could change a lot of things today, and the players who weren't included that much so far could get their chance, since the team stars almost all failed so far. Details

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