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Odense were aiming at one of the top 6 spots ahead of this season, Silkeborg would have been happy with anything that was not the bottom table spot. Silkeborg are now in spot 6, Odense in spot 8, two points short of Silkeborg, but that is not realistic. The injury-hit Odense couldn't cope without the top players in the first part of the season, but as soon as things got back to normal mid-November, results followed. Odense lost their two top players med-October, but they are now ready for a rematch since both of those are ready, just like captain Kristiensen, who's been out for months. The last test they had over the weekend was completed successfully (win over Nykobing). I expect Odense to win and since they lost by 6 goals in the first head-to-head game, won't be happy with any kind of a win today. Goal-difference might play the key role in the end in case both teams end the season with the same number of points. Details

If Randers have an kind of an edge here, it's the fact all their players were together during the break in the championship, none playing in their national teams. Midtjyland are a better team, both in concert and individually, in all positions from the perimeter to the goalkeeper, where Englert reigns supreme on Midtjyland's goal, while Lundsby and Vojčić are the problematic part of Randers on their goal. Midtjyland already beat Randers twice before this season, not by accident but by tactics and technical superiority. Midtjyland's coach, Helle Thomsen, is also Sweden's selector and knows very well the quality of two out of three of Randers' best players, left back Westberg and right back Wallen. The two of them were not part of the bronze team from the recent EC, as selector Thomsen judged there were better players in those positions, and was correct in her assessment. The second factor is that Randers struggle against Midtjyland's defense, not by accident since Midtjyland's main defender is Sabina Jacobsen, who is familiar with most Randers' players having played there herself for two seasons. Midtjyland defense will be somewhat shaken by missing Ida Alstad, but Thomsen has a selection of quality defenders, from Thorsgaard to right back Line Jorgensen, who can play quality defense. In closing, from the five matches against the big four this season, Randers only beat Viborg (31-28), while they lost against Esbjerg, Holstebro and twice against Midtjyland, all by at least 5 goals, and the margin on the handicap offered here is definitely worth considering. Details

The Cup quarterfinal game isn't taking place in the most fortunate moment for the defending champions Leipzig. I think the handicap at visitors is a good choice here. Leipzig has been forced to do without injured Diehl, Lederer, and Atladottir for a while now, and have lost their main organizer Lang, who got back from the EC with an injury. Back player Visser left for Viborg, leaving everything to Hunier and Kudlacz, which makes things in offense very complicated, as the Blomber game earlier this week proved. Leipzig were down 5-9 15 minutes into the game, the score was tied with five minutes on the clock, but Leipzig won 32-28 in the end. Oldenburg lost to Buxtehuder the same day after conceding a seven-meter shot after regulation time. After the bad first half, Oldenburg went on to almost get a point in a very tough away game. Geschke did great, having finished with 8 goals. The other two back players Wenzl and Muller did great as well.

Leipzig seem vulnerable, the four national team players seem tired after the EC and this is a great chance for Oldenburg to take advantage of that to secure an automatic spot in the Cup final. The handicap is available with several book makers. Details

In this ninth round match of the German league, we have a North Germany derby of fourth Buxtehuder and second ranked Oldenburg. Prior to the break, Buxtehuder suffered their first defeat this season, in away match against Bietigheim (26-29). Then they won two matches in the EHF Cup against VOC Amsterdam, but lost three very important players to injuries in the same period. First captain Isabell Klein broke a bone in her foot and will be out for months, Jana Podpolinski had a similar issue in her left foot and will be away for a month as well, and the last injury was Friederike Gubernatis. all three are perimeter players and combined they scored 65 goals, while Gubernatis was third best scorer on the team, after Jessica Oldenburg and Lona Fischer. To battle these issues, Buxtehuder reactivated their retied all time best scorer, 37-year old Stefanie Melbeck, after exactly two years since she retired. Having scored over 1000 goals for her team, she is very experienced, but it remains to be seen what shape she is in after two years without a competitive match. Adding to this is the fact Randy Bulau, middle back, once again suffered knee tendon issues this month, which already cost her the start of the season, and the long term injury list also includes Stefanie de Beer (right back/right winger) i Josephine Techert (left back).
Oldenburg are a pleasant surprise with six wins and a draw, and lost their first to defending champions Thuringer (27-32) before the break. Theirs is one of the most efficient perimeter lineups so far this season, with Caroline Muller, Julia Wenzl and Angie Geschke, and the latter two in the top 10 scorers of the league. Geschke is the third best with 60 goals, and was the second best and most efficient scorer for the national team in the past EC, playing as left winger. Goalie Tess Wester also left a great impression playing for the Dutch national team. The only problem for coach Krowicki prior to this match is the injured knee of Silja Svedsen, but it's only the amount of time that's in question, as she will be able to play. Oldenburg have a tuned in roster, with main players in great form, while Buxtehude have a disheveled perimeter lineup with only Jessica Oldenburg as the regular starter and only Stefanie Melbeck as a lefty, after a two year break. A great chance for Oldenburg, worth playing at least with this handicap. Details

Two best Danish team meet today - Midtjyland are the top Danish team conceding 20 goals per game, Holstebro the second best with 22. Defense-wise, both teams' goal keepers are best in Denmark. Holstebro's Solberg is the best one with 43% of saves, Englert is second best with 43.8%. Solberg was the best goal keeper in European Championship last month. Both played the key role in the match in the championship ending at 42 goals. When it comes to head-to-head games, one in the Danish Cup ended in 2013 ended as the only over, all other five meetings were unders. Holstebero are a team known for pushing fast transition and Midtyland are one of the best teams in that segment. They have defense specialists and Holstebro interestingly have short back players, who I expect to have problems facing tough Midtjylland's defense. This is a very important game, the Cup is a coveted trophy in Denmark and I expect both teams to try their best. Details

At the end of the European Championship I'll take the tried and true bet with Nora Mork. Mork and Loke are on the short list for the MVP of the championship and the final will probably decide the winner. Mork scored 5 against Sweden in the semifinal after just 42 minutes with 10 attempts. In the second stage match a against Spain she scored just 3 of 9, but that was in just 23 minutes and her worst performance here. Last year in Serbia she's shown she knows how to beat Spain's defense, scoring 8 of 11 attempts as the best player of the match. I noticed one more thing: goalkeeper Navarro has a height issue that she compensates with great footwork. She has a very good save average from 6m and wing positions, but struggles against high shots, where Mork is one of the best 9m shooters. Over 5.5 is worth this stake. Details

The primary reason I decided to play over on Martin on this margin that's been offered is definitely tied to the seven meter shots for Spain, and against Norway on this EC. The Spaniards won the most penalty shots convincingly, 39, which means 5.5 per game. Martin scored 24 out of 27. On the other hand, Norway got 5 penalty shots given per game. A deeper analysis of the last four duels between these two shows that Norway got 3, 6, 4, and 5 seven meter shots, and all those games were played on the big final tournaments of the EC, WC, and OG.
In total, Martin scored 42 goals on this EC, 6 per game. When it comes to four duels between Norway and Spain, Martin scored 5 against Norway on the WC 2011, didn't play on OG 2012 and WC 2013, and in the last game on the EC a week ago, she scored 6. Another detail worthy of attention is that Norway's goalie Silje Solberg conceded the most goals from the wing positions - 33, almost 5 per game. Details

Loke is a player with the best effect, the most minutes spend in game, a player who is going in both ways. Is that due to the fact that this could be her last big tournament we will see after the European Championship, but the numbers are on her side. An average of almost five goals per match, 4.83, 78% shot efficiency, physically very fit. Loke sees no reason for the team to save her for the finals, and matches against Poland (four goals) and Hungary (six goals) speak to her favor. The Swedes allowed to be outplayed last time by Montenegrian Jovanka Radicevic (Lazovic was suspended), so they will have to be careful with such mistakes. We can still find a margin for one goal less (3.5) which is worth one unit more. Details

Mork is definitely another player who deserves full attention on this championship. With 29 goals scored, together with Loke she shares the position of the best scorer with Norway after si matches, but her chances to pass the margin in tonight's match are maybe even bigger, considering she plays only the offense, and on average she has 8.3 shots at goal per match. The second important thing is that today they are playing against Swedes who are among the leading national teams with the number of penalty shots made, on average 4.5. In the last match against Montenegro there were eight of them Mork is one of the standard options for Norway's penalty shots, she was always the first option. Details

Poland conceded more goals than any other team in this group, cannot reach semifinals anymore, and will probably record another defeat today. When it comes to their defense, we have to note that they had great problems in dealing with right back players in all of their games. Marta Mangue from Spain scored 5 goals in the Spain game, they conceded 8 to Tomora and Planetu, didn't have solution for Bliznova in the Russia game (7 goals) and allowed Jorgesen of Denmark to score her championship-best 5 goals two days ago. Norway's right back Mork is only their best scorer with 15 goals. She's averaging 3.75 goals per game, which is under this margin, but she is also the Norweigan who takes more shots than anyone else (29 in total, almost 7.5 per game). She has the chance to use shortcomings of Polish defense, she's fast to dribble one-on-one, and knows how to play the Polish team, given her Champions League efficiency. She scored 12 goals combined in two matches for Larvik as they met Polish team Lublin. This is a margin worth this stake. Details

One gets the impression that Poland barely made it to the main stage and do not deserve to be here based on performance. They had good periods against the Russians, with Poland's two best offensive players Kudlacz and Wojtas taking advantage of Russians' biggest problem, the 'black holes' in their performance, which manifested here as just two goals in the last ten minutes. In their previous two matches Poland lost to Spain by -7 and to Hungary -6, while it could have been more as Hungary held a 10 goal lead midway through the match. Denmark are charging for victory, and are also traditionally a bad match-up for Poland as the Danes won all three previous matches, with the last one at the WC being the closest one, by just 4 goals. Poland now have a weaker team compared to that match, missing perimeter players and with changes on one wing, as well as goalies with few saves. This led selector Rasmussen to switch out his first goalie Gapska and bring in a new goalkeeper to the team prior to the second stage. With a serious attitude and full focus throughout the match, the way Scandinavians usually do, the realistic margin is two or three goals higher than the one set for this handicap. Details

Wojtas is the second best scorer on the Polish team, having taken the second greatest number of shots. She's averaging 5 goals and 9 shots per game, 10-for-15 from the nine-meter line. She scored 4 goals out of 11 shots (3-for-9 from the nine-meter line) as Poland played Denmark in 2013 WC for the bronze medal. She is nowhere near those kind of performances, and more importantly, Denmark are the opponent who don't let back players do well. They limited Norway to only five goals from this position despite losing. Finally, Wojtas is from Larvik, just like the Danish goal keeper Toft, which means Toft knows her very well and normally saves a lot of shots from the nine-meter line. Wojtas is averaging 4 goals per game at Larvik in Champions League, which is where this margin should be set. Details

Spain recorded 17 seven-meter throws in the last two games and that is a fact I can't ignore. When it comes to seven-meter throws, Carmen Martin plays the key role on the Spanish team. She took 13 of those and scored all 13 for a perfect efficiency. Martin adds goals from the wing position two, her record being 4-for-7 so far. When it comes to head-to-head meetings with Hungary, she didn't participate at last year's WC with an injury, but she scored 7 goals to become Spain's top scorer in the 2012 EC group stage game. The margin set at 6.5 goals is quite a good option with lower stake. Details

Granted, Norway did much better in the EC games against the same group rivals, but when it comes to their h2h match, the stats from this championship isn't too relevant. Both teams were reshuffled, Denmark might have underrated Romania a bit, but their typical Scandinavian persistence got them that one important point in the end. That draw can be all forgotten about if they beat Norway today. Denmark proved they have what it takes to beat Norway two times in the last two months. They recorded the first win mid-October (26-22) and the second one late November, just before this EC in Norway 24-21. Denmark'd defense and goal keepers were superior in both those games. Sandra Toft limited the opponents to only 8 goals in the first half of that second match, which is no coincidence. Toft is a player at the Norwegian champions Larvik and third of Norwegian team is from Larvik. Another thing is the fact Denmark have much more players to chose from at back positions. Norway's back players are much shorter. Middle back Kristiansen is having the best performances of her carrier, she's much better than Norway's Oftedal. The Danes have a much better quality bench too, which can settle the game in the end. I believe that Denmark have a better chance to win today. I believe that they won't lose by more than one goal and that's my betting choice for this game since it's widely-available. Details

Two players at Ukraine are capable of taking responsibility in offense - Nikolaenko and Borschenko. Ever since they lost Mangarova at right wing position, Borschenko plays a more prominent role as the left wing. She is given much more freedom in offense and gets much more passes from the back players. She scored a total of 9 goals in 17 attempts at this EC (2 games) after scoring 14 in total in two preparation period games against Slovakia. Also, she and Nikolayenko are the only players that do seven-meter throws at Ukranie. She will spend a lot of time in the game again, her average is 52 minutes per game. The bet is available with Betsson, Betsafe, Betcity as well. If it was more widely available, I would maybe go one unit higher. Details

One of the reason Russia lost to Spain was small number of their fast break goals. The had only two, compared to 10 out of 12 attempts in the Hungary match. Trefilov will insist on more fast breaks today, with Kuznetcova as one of the key players he's counting on. She's in the game almost the whole time - 60 minutes against Spain, 52 against Hungary, with a total of 9 goals out of 13 attempts and 4 out of 4 in fast breaks. Poland, on the other hand, conceded a lot of goals to opponents' wingers when they would run into fast breaks. Neither of the goal keepers did well, having recorded a total of only 7 saves (conceded 19 goals from all positions). The bet is available with Favorit and Betsson as well. Details

When it comes to Russia's games, we need to point out a few things that were visible in their first EC match. Fast transition, best counter-attacking in this competition, and the fact they scored five fast break goal in the opening game with Hungary, suggest that the Russian back players work very well with the pivot and the wings, who often find themselves taking shots at opponent's goal. That is why I'll opt for an over as they meet the Spanish warriors today. All of Trefilov's 16 players spend some time in the game, which means the team as a whole has enough power to keep the pace high throughout the game. Their defense is very tough, recording 8 two-minute suspensions in the Hungary game. Spain have a very good defense around which they build their game, but have players that can handle the faster transition too. Barbosa, who is capable of running into fast breaks, didn't play in their head-to-head meeting with Poland. She can also be very productive as a back player. When analyzing Russia and Spain's h2h games, we see that their last official meeting ended at 50 goals each, even though the first half pace suggested it might end closer to 55. 60 goals were scored in their last test game in 2013. If Russia manage to set their pace and control it, at least 2 or 3 over the margin are expected. Details

No matter how this will end, there's only one player in Romania's offense worth our attention - Neagu. Neagu will definitely be the center of Danish defense's attention, but she was the focus of Norway's defense too and that didn't stop her from scoring seven goals, with two missed seven-meter throws. She recorded a total of 17 shots in the Norway game. She scored a total of 19 goals in the last two preparation games with Germany (14 in one, 5 in the other). We should mention two last official head-to-head games with Denmark (EC 2010). Neagu first scored 8 in their group stage h2h, and then 6 in the game for the bronze medal. On top of that, Neagu is the top scorer at Buducnost in Champions League, averaging almost 7 goals per game. 5.5 we have here can't be missed on. Details

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Looking at the past matches and results f these teams, both in the preparation period and while Russia played qualifications for the EC, an over on this margin seems obvious. Hungary played four of their last five matches close to or over 60 goals, the only under was the last prep game against France, but France are synonymous with defense, with slow transition, quite opposite to the Russians. With Russians, both in clubs and the national team, the focus is on offense, and defense is quite sketchy, as proven by their last five preparation matches, where Russia never conceded less than 27 goals. If we take qualifications into view, Russia allowed an offensively 'dead' Macedonia to score 24 and 23 in both their qualification matches, and the issues they had vs Germany on defense are even worse. I expect the fans to add their pressure and affect not only the Russians but the home team's focus as well, for a match that should go over 55 goals overall. Details