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Kimmer was the best junior of the world, true, but many were who never left an impression at the ATP tour. There's a few factors pointing that Karen should dominate. First of all, Coppejans is primarily a clay player and that's his favorite court. Karen, on the other hand, loves indoors, but also has top serve in these conditions. He's an extremely talented player, and can definitely play the field, and also has a decent return. Kimmer does have certain aggression, but his hits aren't strong enough to match Karen, and his serve will be the one to create the difference because Karen should get lots of break-point chances. There's no doubt that more game will be played in the Belgian's serve-games. This is a strong statistic, Karen's got 7-1 covering this handicap in his wins, with two matches where he had exactly three games moer, and Coppejans never defended the picked handicap in his defeats (0-9), with one match that he lost evened out to the handicap. I think Karen is an obvious favorite here, and I think he can definitely cover this handicap, like he did in the first round against Zemlja. Details

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Kravchuk's been on a great rhythm late in the season and seems like he's in for a great week in Yokohama. He's a great server and it's tough to force him into dropping the serve. The Russian kept the good results going last week by reaching Kobe quarterfinals. He also recorded three convincing wins, the most important of which is the one against Ebden, a good challenger player. Taro Daniel, who went on to win the title, beat him in the end. Moriya, unlike his opponent, is not doing well at this level. He recorded an embarrassing defeat in Kobe to Jasik, as he won only one game. But that painted an accurate picture of his performances this season. Things will be much more difficult against Kravchuk. Hiroki is only 165 cm tall and his serve is easily tamed. He also has a strange personality and once things going down the hill, there is no comeback for him. The match against Jasika is just a final proof of his weakness. Kracvhuk has much better results and game, the surface here suits him and I think this is a pretty good bet. Details

Pouille turned the match around against Guez yesterday, but I think it's more important that he kept his serve in two sets. Especially because it was mostly a routine game, and his rival didn't stand a chance. Counting the fact that Stakhovsky was never mysterious, serve, and serve again. He comes towards the net occasionally, but in the tennis as aggressive as that, neither have much chance to turn things around, especially indoors. Rochete took him to a tie-break of the first set, Millot wasn't even close because of his humble serve. Pouille is much more dangerous in that regards. They can both play indoors, and have humble return potential. At least one tie-break sounds like a real possibility. I have to say that that's a default bet when it comes to Stakhovsky, even more so in the tournament final matches, when the draw is cleared out. For example, the beginning of the week offered a game margin that was only one game less, and Rochette was much worse compared to Pouille. This sounds like a great bet, worth taking with a medium stake. Details

In a clash between two quality servers, break points will be a rarity. Players who exploit quality serve indoor in a great way, and have a great net play. It is difficult to take make a break in such balance of power, especially if first serve percentages are high. But even if that is not the case, things won't change that much. Primarily, these are players with limited return qualities, and everything in this bet is based on that. It seems quite realistic that we will see at least one tiebreak in the match, which is likely and more than enough to go over the above mentioned margin. These two players had the best moments of their careers indoor, and it seems almost impossible to threaten them at return indoor, and a lot of factors have to come together for that to happen. Bemelmans' numbers indoor are imposing when it comes to the challenger level, while Kachanov earned all four of his ATP wins indoor. It is more than likely that they lack material to surprise, and we have ahead of us a classic clash of servers. The set margin seems missed by at least a game, and is definitely worth a medium stake. Details

Struvay has been underestimated once again in the battle for the trophy. Paolo Lorenzi is a better player, but it was proved that it doesn't have to mean much at 3000m altitude. After he defeated the only true server on his way to the finale (Ward), he used all advantages of Bogota's fast surface in the following matches. He earned, or was close to, double digit number of aces. In such tennis, the quality of rivals can hardly come to the fore, Eduardo doesn't give a lot of rhythm on return. In playing conditions like these, handicaps like this one do not work well. It is hard to defeat a classic serve-volley player by six games, or make a break against him at least three times in the match, without losing your own serve. In their previous three head-to-head matches, Struvay defeated Lorenzi twice. Even though they haven't faced each other in years, those wins were in conditions similar to today's. One in Bogota, in two tiebreaks and with absolute serve domination. The audience in Bogota will definitely cheer a lot, and there is still a chance that the trophy will stay in Colombia. Defeating a server like Struvay in these conditions by four games seems like a mission impossible, even for Lorenzi. Details

After he passed a test in the form of a serving clash against Ward, Struvay is quite underestimated today. No one can deny that Joao had good experiences in their head-to-head matches, but he is still a player who manages better at lower altitude where the pace is much slower. Trailing four games behind a server like the Colombian player is quite the challenge. In high Bogota, Eduardo's serve is great so far, and he seems mentally strong. Struvay won yesterday's match in straight sets, and his opponent had almost 90% of first serve points won. Even though there were some gifts that made the job easier for the Colombian, I can't shake the impression that it is very hard to make a break against him. Most of all, Souza is not known as a smasher. He defeated Garin here by three games and Pereira by four games, and they are players whose best quality isn't the serve. I think that the real handicap margin is missed by at least a game, and this definitely has value. Details

With a glance at the ranking, this seems like an easy job for Horacio, but only at first glance. Cristian's tennis level has been impressive in Bogota so far. Totally unexpectedly, he ousted Martin, a finalist from last week's Lima. After that, El Mihdawy was just a stop along the way. First challenger wins for Cristian, but the way he earned them makes us think how he managed to hide such tennis before now. Combining the two matches, he earned impressive numbers at his serve, the Colombian won almost 90% of first serve points. If we keep in mind just how much Zeballos struggled in the previous match against Rivera-Aranguiz at the return, the basis for the counter-handicap is clear. No one is disputing the fact that Horacio is the favorite. But a break in each set is a convincing win, but clearly not enough for Zeballos to go over the handicap. Cristian did a great job in the previous two matches, he dominated the serve, and the conditions for a clay-court tournament can hardly be faster than they are in Bogota this week. Having that in mind, he will have a hard time defeating a player with an extremely high percentage of points won at his serve by six games advantage. Details

At the start of the week Alexander created the biggest surprise of the tournament so far. He managed to knock out the first seed, Estrella. The Dominican was full of nice impressions before the Colobian adventure, he was talking about going after the Top 50 status this week. Ward didn't give him any chances, and he probably played one of the best matches in his career. For a player who has 12 titles on futures, you can't say he's not harmless, but up to this week Ward had only negative experiences on challengers. Obviously the time for change has come. The Brit served great during the whole match, he gave a couple of chances to a player who s better ranked, almost among Top 50. Estrella tried almost anything, but even when the slightest chance appeared, Ward would find the serve and put an end to it. Even though he is not known as a clay player, this and the 3000 m altitude serves him great, and his strong hits really come to shine. If Estrella didn't have a solution for Ward's hits, I doubt Struvay will be able to do anything about that either. So far Ward managed to beat players like Sijsling, Brown, and now Estrella. All of them are quite the better players than Struvay. The key moment seems to be the time Ward catches the rhythm, something Struvay is unfamiliar with. I expect the Brit to pass into Bogota's quarter-finals. Details