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Saint Raphael had the best defense in the league last season while Chambery had second best. These teams are similar in quality and style. Neither of them play fast-pace handball and both focus on defense. The only other team that can be compared to them in those two categories is Dunkerque. Chambery played them at 46 and 49 last season, St Raphael at 50 and 47 and this season at the start. When it comes to teams that are relevant in game style, Chambery have Cesson at 52, Dunkerque 49, Ivry 54 i St Raphael 51 and 52 Aix home. However, those teams are not as good as the aforementioned 2 or 3. They have nothing but unders in test games, the only over was with Montpellier, who are not relevant in this story. The most relevant preseason game is with Zagreb at 49. St Raphael have 50 Dunkerque, 54 Nimes, 51 Chambery, 47 Cesson, 49 Ivry
away last season in rleevant games. Chambery have Montpellier at 47 at the start (not the most relevant opponents) while St Raphael have 46 with the relevant Dunkerque. Last season's h2h games were at 51, 55 and 55. The only problem here is the cup game of last season (55) and the championship game at 55. That championship game, hosted by today's visitors, fell apart when they had a 6 goal lead at HT. Chambery are much weaker offense-wise than back then. A lot of players left and I don't think they can keep up that efficiency today. Both teams want their first win in the championship and they know they can get it only through defense. This should not go over some 50 goals. Details

Montpellier seem great in the new season. They have: Leipzig +4, Esperance Tunis +8, Medvedi +15, La Rioja +5, Elverum +5 in preseason. All of those opponents possess good quality. They also have St Raphael +8, in the league Chambery +11, and Metalurg +10 in CL. In preseason, they lost to Kristianstad and Chambery but that isn't very important here. Much more important are wins over Medvedi, La Rioja and Elverum from the end of preseason. Last year away with relevant opponents from mid-table they have: +4 Toulouse, +5 Dunkerque, Aix +9, Nimes +13. H2h games with Nimes last season +13 and +7. When it comes to top three teams last season, Nimes have -3 Paris (after Paris opened badly and lost first half by 7 but won the second one by 10), -3 Nantes (-5 at HT) and Montpellier -13. There are also home defeats: Aixa (-4), Chamberya (-2), Toulousea (-5) i St Raphaela (-2). Since this is the Northern France derby match, Montpellier won't open like PSG. The rivalry is great and they will try and do this properly. I have no doubts they can control the match and record a new win easily. Their team is much better and form is good too. Details

Tatran now play a much tougher defense as a result of Goluza's influence. They also play a slower game, as the results prove: 51 with Wintherthur, 50 Borac, 41 St Peterburg and an over with AIx, who are a better team. hey also have 51 with Frydek, 48 Eger, 43 Sala in Sala. Also, they played Plzen at 45, Neva at 41 and some other irrelevant Czech teams. Also, they will be without top player Rabek who is important for offense and the team is tired after many preparation games. I do not expect them to play fast today.

Meshkov lost their three back players this summer and acquired good-quality substitutes but they will need time to get everything at the right level. Meshkov have 60 with Celje which is irrelevant because the Slovenians played fast-paced game, 50 with Cocks from Finland, 52 with Dinamo Bucharest who always play fast, 84 with St Raphael who are much better than Tatran, 40 with Ribnica and 57 with Constanta. All of those are preparation games. Meshkov's defense is similar to the one from last year and I think both teams will rely on defense here. They played at 55 last year but given all the changes, there should be a few goals less today. Details

I don't understand why this is a 50-50 game and the odds given by the bookmakers. The reason for that are probably the results of the previous round, but the whole championship has not been taken into consideration. Avanca have lost at Belenenses (slightly poorer performances away), but Belenenses played great in that game (and they have been in great form lately), at the limit of their abilities, and there is no way they let them win. Arsenal, on the other hand, defeated Horta whom I already wrote about, they are inconsistent and they can lose convincingly to anyone, so it is not a minus to today's bet.
Avanca are a much better team than Arsenal, they are worth more than the relegation zone, the proof for that is the fact that they secured their stay after 8 games, and won all of them. They have been great at home, they defeated Benfica and Braga, top teams in Portugal, so there is no reason why they wouldn't defeat Arsenal. Avanca have defeated all teams in the relegation zone at home, except Boa Hore which don't suit them (even though they defeated them away by 3 recently). I will only mention the win by 5 against Horta and Fafe, by 14 against Sao Mamede, because they are similar to Arsenal in quality. I will also mention away game (even though Avanca are much better at home), they defeated Gage by 2 and 6, Sao Mamede by 8 and Horta by 2.
Arsenal cannot compete with Avanca, they only have 11 players in rotation, and I am sure they will drop as the game advances. They lost every away game against stronger teams. Belenenses by 2, Maia by 3 (they are weaker than Avanca), double-digit defeats to Sporting, Braga, Benfica, Porto. The most relevant ones are the games against Aquas and Madeira whose quality is the same as Avanca's. Aquas at home by 4, away by 2, Madeira at home by 8, away by 10. Their head-to-heads are also in our favor, Avanca won here 29-23 in regular season, they had one away graw, but in December and that is not relevant here. The balanca of power was the most obvious in the first round of the relegation battle when Avanca demolished them by 23-34. The home team have secured their stay, but they will not give away wins, everything is in their favor today, and that is why I am going with the maximum bet here. Details

I was very surprised by the 1.44 at Braga (I expected the realistic 1.20-1.25) as well as the handicap at 2.5 and I simply have to use it. Braga are in excellent shape, they're on an 8-championship game winning run, and each next win is very important in the battle for the best placement before the playoffs, so their motive shouldn't be doubted. At home their record is 6-0-2, they lost to Sporting and Porto, and the five out of six wins came with a double-digit difference, plus the one of +6 over Fafeo. It's worth mentioning the +10 over Avanc who are quality-wise on the rank of Madeira.

Madeira's away record this season is 6-0-4, but no win came against a team similar to Braga. They lost with -3 to Maia, and then we have the three important away losses. Against Aquas, who are equal to them, they were at -5, against Benfica -7, Sporting -8. Both teams are in Braga's rank. Madeira do have the quality, but they're lacking for the leading four (Porto, Sporting, Braga, Benfica), and I will show that by comparing the results of this and last season (of course, the more important ones are Madeira's away matches in which they're a bit weaker than when they're at home).

This season Madeira has -3 at home against Poto (30-33) when Porto solved the game early and rested afterwards because that weekend they had an important game against Bregenza. The season before that in away games they have two defeats of -6 (29-23) and -8 (27-19). With Benfica this season at home they remained at -3 (27-30), and in away games they have the mentioned -7 (27-20). The season before that they have -10 (40-30) and -6 (29-23). They lost to Sporting this season in an away game with -8 (34-26), last season they won with 29-28. That's the only result which doesn't favor this bet, but when I mention that for Sporting last season Ruesga, Bozovic, Nikcevic, Kopco, Asanin, Zabic and co. didn't play, then it's clear that the game isn't relevant. In the end, this season they lost to Braga at home with -6 (30-36). In an away game last season -8 (35-27) and -3 (29-26).

It's clear that Madeira can't stand up to the best. Braga completed their roster, injured players returned and there's no doubt that they're the bigger favorites than the booking houses are trying to show. For me there's no doubt, Braga can win with at least +5 and I expect that to happen. Everything else would be a surprise. In the end I'll just mention that in head-to-heads Braga have seven wins at home in a row, out of which six are well over this very low handicap. The last one ended with 35-27, I think it's going to be similar today. Details