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We have a good basis for an over here. They've played 5 times in last 3 years, 3 times going over in 3 sets. Kerber won the last two matches in 2 sets but both matches went over this margin. They're Top players so it's hard to expect either one to make a huge difference on the court as this rarely happens in these matches. In addition, Kerber is defending the Top 10 and the final from last season. Ciba will try to wash away the bitter taste after her recent performances and will also have an imperative. Coupled with the speed of the surface which is very fast in Tokyo, which is a guarantee for easy points, and the fact that one has a more defensive style (Kerber) while the other is more aggressive (Cibulkova), I don't see this match as a one-way street for either player. Details

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The situation is very simple here. They've played 3 matches so far, and all 3 have ended in three sets, which is a very distinct possibility for today. Both need a good result and both have their problems in their game, but both also have their advantages. Jovanovski has her aggression but struggles with consistency, while Ula has a problem with the level of her performance but is more consistent. Anyway I look at it, it's hard to give either one a significant advantage but there should be plenty of drama. Details

After everything that happened to Gajdosova (health problems, death of her mother) and following a few good ITF performances, she deserved to get here on a wild card. She hopes to use it well, and I believe she would, especially because I know what she was capable of when at her best. Keys is, on the other hand, unstable, she didn't prepare for US Open well, and Gajdosova should take advantage of it. The draw is unfavorable for Keys, that true, but the number of mistakes she records is too high to miss out on this. Gadosova can get her off her game, since Keys doesn't have the proper rhythm in her matches. I think things can get complicated here. Details

Ivanovic talked about consistency a few times this season, having to work on it. She really lacks it occasionally, as seen in oscillations on court. You could see it against Svitolina on Indian Wells this season, where Ivanovic struggled to win the tough match. She was a set behind, a break behind in the second set, was saving Svitolina's match serve twice in the third. Svitolina looks like an intruder in the Cincinnati final matches, she's the only one who's not a seed, the only one out of Top 15, but the fact we're seeing her here today means something. Her style doesn't suit the hitters, she eliminated Kvitova in two sets here. Ivanovic has the strength, she had it against Svitolina in Indian Wells, but she can't control it in duels like these, so a big number of errors happen. Svitolina knows how to punish that, any long rally went on her side on Indian Wells. Ivanovic is taking painkillers here. She's not fully ready, her problems are still here and nobody can guarantee, her included, that she'll be able to do her best today. This is where I see Svitolina's chance today, she loves playing against aggressive players more than against consistent players. She'll let Ivanovic take initiative for sure, but consistency will definitely break her rhythm. Svitolina showed a big progress this season, too, proved her quality and she can play a match with no pressure today, and I'm sure she'll complicate it. Just like she did on Indian Wells. Details

Two duels against these two opponents were played in three sets, and the one from the last tournament shows a lot, the one where they played three intense sets. We should think the same scenario will repeat today. Stephens is waking up, it seems that she made a good choice by replacing her coach, and I'm sure she'll continue to raise her form in front of her audience. Her opponent is defending the semifinal, her Top 10 status is hanging by a thread, and I'm sure she doesn't plan to let it go easily. We should definitely see more drama between these two opponents. Details

This is clear. Lisicki will win this match, she'll either defeat herself or defeat Errani. There's no other option. They played the last tournament, Lisicki won in two sets, created her own destiny from the beginning to the end. Errani has problems playing hardcourt this season, she always had, but her style is getting worse this year. Lisicki played a really good last match, got back after being behind in the second set, and played consistently. Add to that a much better serve and strength, a new win should come, and I'm sure a convincing one, too, because Lisicki isn't the one who knows how to stop when she starts crushing it with her tennis. Details

Venus and Kerber's last two head-to-head matches were very close, and the one today will most likely be the same. Venus is aggressive, with powerful shots and service. Kerber is just the opposite - she absorbs the power from the opponents' shots and uses it to develop her shots. Kerber is the favorite, according to the bookmakers (too great a favorite I think) which is why the margin is set like this today. Venus has to improve her game as the US Open approaches, while Kerber, on the other hand, definitely doesn't want to give her Top 10 membership up. This is a match between two super-quality opponents, and that should cause quite a lot of drama on the court. Details

Knapp and Garcia's styles suggest we are in for a tough and dramatic match. Hard court is not the favorite surface for either of them, but they have dangerous services. Focus is a problem for both, Garcia is currently in decline, while Knapp is in search of form the whole season. Three very tough three sets were played in their last match. A similar outcome today wouldn't be surprising, especially because of the aforementioned lack of focus. Details

Kuznetsova's health has been doubtful from the start of this tournament. But as it went on, it turned out she was in perfect order and she improved her performance, playing her best match in the semifinal. She's ready, and in this form she's above Nara, who hasn't had a single strong win on hard court this season. She has beaten players in poor form and players that don't have what it takes to play on this surface. She has beaten two unstable players - Keys and Mladenovic - while Dias should have beaten her had she not gotten injured. Errani, on the other hand, missed too many chances in the semifinal. Kuznetsova has left a better impression and hasn't lost a single set, while Nara almost lot 2 and played in the doubles, which can be an important thing today as she relies on her running and tough attitude. Kuznetsova is not a typical aggressive player, she can play calmly, play on both sides of the net and she has a better serve. Nara has reached her maximum here, even beyond that and Kuznetsova is simply superior to her. Details

This is a match where it's very difficult to give someone a huge advantage, as it should be pretty dramatic. Both Jovanovski and Cirstea are not having a good season, both are in poor form, regardless of Jovanovkski's final in Bak. Both have a better serve than the return, the surface is fast, both have strong strokes but both also have a problem with concentration and three sets are common in matches like this. Details

Even though somewhat milder conditions are expected for today, they're still very difficult for playing in. This has been the case this week and it was the same last year. It's almost impossible to maintain high level of concentration and I think that will be the case today. Voegele and Jovanovski have had a good season, the results speak for themselves. Voegele is looking for the first WTA final of her career and will surely not go down without a fight, while Jovanovski got the title here two years ago and she will want to get there again. It's a 50-50 match and it's hard to give someone the edge, which means we can expect a very tight match. Details

Espinosa's style of tennis does not agree with Barthel at all. The German is aggressive, Espinosa absorbs shots well, and this surface suits Espinoza better. Barthel struggled against this style of tennis in the first two rounds as well. Espinoza on the other hand beat all three aggressive opponent, she has the game for this surface, and for such an opponent as well. Goerges collapsed after a few fumbles, Barthel is not much better in that respect and I cannot picture Barthel performing on a high level consistently, it's just not her strong suit. This is at best a 50/50 clash, but I'd give Espinoza an edge after all we've seen here do here, and because of the surface, which means these odds don't match the situation at all. Details

Kanepi played her first match this month on July 2nd and 15 days later, she's playing her 12th match so fatigue has to take its toll. Larsson didn't know how to make use of it even though she was up by 5-2 in the third set and had two match points and she admitted that she alone let Kanepi get back into the match. Hogenkamp convincingly beat Schmiedlova here, regardless of the fact that she has struggled with her form lately (1 win in 6 matches). Hogenkamp has shown the same consistent level during her match, she was aggressive, concentrated and didn't have any huge downfalls in her performance, which cannot be said for Kanepi. The surface doesn't work to Kanepi's favor as the courts are getting dryer and dryer and the surface gets slower while the balls bounce higher and Kanepi struggles with that. Hogenkamp has had 25 wins on clay this season, she played 2 ITF finals and is coming here with the best ranking of her career after the first WTA wins this season and she has nothing to lose. Too many things speak against Kanepi for us not to bet here. Details

Goerges beat Torro convincingly in two sets but she didn't play well. Her body language was a bit better than against Voegele in the last match and did better than in Bad Gastein. But mistakes are still an integral part of her performance. Soler is a tricky player for clay, especially in conditions in Bastad in last few days. She beat Arvidsson after three sets yesterday, the first set went into tie-break. This is a tricky matchup for Goerges but I think it's time for her to wake up and I believe she will not go down without a fight today. On the other hand, Soler will have a thing or two to say today as well. This is a match that should end in three sets and it's hard to see one player having the advantage. Details

The odds on Min are dropping and there's a good reason for that. Last week, she played what was possibly the best tennis this season from her, she reached her first WTA semifinal and took a set against Petkovic who went on to win the tournament. Min has really shown her vast array of skills, she was good on her serve, return, she turned the ball from forehand to backhand well. Pavlyuchenkova has had one title this season but it was indoors, and all five matches ended in five sets, and she has had plenty of fluctuations this season. The conditions in Bastad are difficult, the surface is tricky, the wind is strong and there's a good chance of rain and the weather might make the organization difficult. These conditions hardly suit Pavlyuchenkova as she hasn't had an official match since Wimbledon and the question is how she reacts now against a player whose performance goes against hers. Coupled with Min's performance last week, her confidence and Pavlyuchenkova's fluctuatiing season and her general form, Min has a much better chance than the odds suggest and it's definitely worth going for her win. Details

The "normal" handicap for the match between Petkovic and Voegele was 5.5 and it is lower by one game today. I see no valid reasons for something like that, perhaps the bookies saw that Voegele got two consecutive wins and thought it meant something, but I personally don't feel that way. Svitolina was terrible and some of her mistakes cannot be described by words alone. Petkovic has won both of her matches in 2 sets, and even though her match against Cepelova was tight, it showed the quality of both players and Petkovic said that this win meant a lot. She has left a better impression but the most important thing for this is their previous match. At the moment when Petkovic took over the initiative (1st and 3rd set) Voegele could do nothing on her return and the result showed that. Passive approach cost Petkovic the second set and she said before this match that she has to be more aggressive and not stop for a single second. She's left a better impression and is a huge favorite today. Details

I watched Siniakova in the qualifiers yesterday and she can feel lucky to have reached the main draw. She lost a set against Bondarenko, allowed 16 break chances, lost his serve 9 times. Kolar had a one-break advantage on two occasions in the first set, three times in the second and had the serve to take the second set but she choked with her mistakes, although Siniakova didn't show too much either and she is facing a player that doesn't make mistakes like Kolar did. Siniakova is focused on her baseline performance and it often comes down to returning the ball and waiting for a mistake. That won't go well against Errani, all the more so as the Italian can hold the ball in play for as long as she wants, and she shows more aggressive on clay than before. The fact that she played Wimbledon finals just three days ago will not dissuade me from writing this pick. Errani reacted great just a few days after Wimbledon last season and the difference in quality here is huge, especially after Siniakova's match. Details

Watson participated in two tournaments ahead of Wimbledon. She failed in Birmingham, and reached semi final in Eastborne last week. She had two match points against Wozniak in Birmingham, and played the first two matches last week in three sets. That proves she lack focus, and that keeping one's game at a high level is tough nowadays. Tomljanovic is a good example of how important focus is. She is capable and ready for great things, she's almost in Top 50, but ups and downs in her game are her biggest problem. This is a clash of two players who find it difficult to keep their game at a high level throughout the match. Watson lost to Keys easily, Tomljanovic to Barthel on grass this season. But neither Watson nor Tomljanovic can play that kind of game - with that much aggression and with everything working outwell. They both have good services, try to be aggressive, and those kind of game styles can only result in a close match. They can go over this margin even in two sets, but I don't think either of them is capable of winning two sets easily, and they are most certainly prone to having ups and downs, which makes even three sets a pretty good choice. Details

Last year, these two players played their only H2H and Keys won both sets, one after tie-break. Watson had two chances to get back into the first set, which means it was a tight match and Keys says that should be the case today. Keys has beaten two passive players with ease but saw two tie-breaks in her match against Vesnina as we saw her lose only three times out of 5 chances. Vesnina plays an aggressive game but is poor on the return, and is similar to Watson in this respect. This surface suits Keys as her serve works well here, while Watson is also good on her serve and she has shown that here. Another important thing in comparison to the match played last year is Watson's health. She struggled with injuries last year while she is completely healthy, ready and filled with energy in front of home fans. This will be a two-way match, as that's what kind of players Keys and Watson are. This margin can go through in three tight sets, they went over last year and Keys announced another tight match. I believe her. Details