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Melnikova got one WTA tournament win, thanks to her opponent retiring. She didn't leave a good impression in the ITF, either. On the other side is Siegemund who's playing the best tennis ever, winning 14 WTA matches this season alone, including Halep, A. Radwanska, Janković, Kuznetsova, Begu, and is a Top 40 herself. They've played each other twice last year on clay courts, once ITF and once WTA. Siegemund lost only three games per each duel, painting the difference between the two of them. I'd dare say that Siegemund is even better this season. When Melnikova loses, it's convincing. This is what it looked like since the season started: by 10, 4, 4, 7, 7, 5, 2, 9, 7, 8, 6, 9, 5 games difference. Following that order, she lost four to Vaidisova (11 matches this season) who's out of Top 400, four to Okuno who's not in the Top 250 (negative score this season), five to Rodina who's got 3/16 this season, two to Zhu (getting back to ITF lately says it all), six to Buyukakcay (the Turk did get the title later on, but that was her first match in a long time, and played at home, so she was nervous), and five games to Kania (7/12 this season). I didn't mention the bigger numbers, those were against Krystina Pliskova, Putintseva, Raina (an Indian player in India), Panova, Alexandrova, Marija, Krunić. None of those is better than Siegemund right now. Also, when the German was the favorite last year (1.20 and under), she won convincingly nine out of 12 matches. She lost a set only once, and two of the those three were played in the first clay tournament after the US Open. Everything is on Siegemund's side today - the home court, the type of court (it's slow and doesn't suit aggressive (but uncontrolled) tennis that Melnikova prefers), form, clay courts' results in the last two years, and Melnikova's results, as well. Details

Gerlach has problems with her serve. She won only 49% of points onthe first serve and 33% on the second against Witthoeft this year. Last year she had 46% at the first serve and 24% at the second against Beygelzimer. All these numbers clearly tell us that Gerlach has nothing to do on this level. This year Gerlach has only five matches and one long break She lost the last match with eight games of difference against a player who's not even among Top 600. This year in all of her three defeats she didn't win any games in at least one of the sets. Since I expect a similar, if not the same thing today, this margin is really too high. In the last three years Falconi beat Koukalova, Svitolina, Johansson, Larsson, Cirstea, Vecino, on clay. It's no measure for today's pick and the match itself, but it's a good show that Falconi has good wins at this surface. But let's focus on the level of her opponent today. Arango who is without ranking left her at one game this year, Arcangioli who was Top 300 left her at two games last ear. Zarazua who is Top 400 at one game. Toljan who was Top 500 at three games, Muresan (once a Top 500 player) at six games. But she beat Larsson with six games of difference, Cirstea with seven, Svitolina with five. Details

Tsurenko recorded straight wins only once this season. It was at Indian Wells, the tournament she likes a lot. Georges is the only reason she reached the second round. The German won a set and a break in the second set and ended up losing. Tsurenko will have it much tougher today. She lost both matches to the Swiss last season. Granted, Bascinsky later won both titles at those two tournaments but her form is now not much different.
The Ukrainian lost over this handicap in all five defeats on clay court this season. The Swiss, on the other hand, covered it in 11 our of 17 wins. She didn't cover it against Makarova and Petkovic in Madrid when she was tired after Rabat, against Babos, who is on great rhythm, against Kozlova, last year against Van Uytvanich at Roland Garros and against Maria in Marrakech when she won by 4 games.
The stats reveal a lot here. The momentum is what matters. Tsurenko has had a lot problems, both with injuries and game. That was obvious against Pavlyuchenkova last win (1 win in the last 8 matches) but also against Georges in the first part of the match. The Swiss is at a higher level compared to all the players. She managed to get a grip after a tough start and got her game up. Her opponent has been struggling all season long. Things weren't much different against Geroges here and won't be different against Bacsinsky either. Details

Lisicki covered this handicap only twice in 8 defeats on clay court last season. Once she lot by 3 games exactly. Looking at the last 5 years, that record is 5-1-16, which means she didn't cover the handicap 16 times. Gavrilova is 8-2-2 in her wins of this and last season, and 9-2-3 the last five years. Given the conditions in Rome and watching Kasatkin and Pliskova match yesterday, I was pretty sure I was going to go with this tip. Kasatkina is Gavrilova's level, Karlolina is one level above Lisicki. Karlolina struggled a lot against the tough Kasatkina and I don't see any reason for Lisicki not to struggle like that as well. The German is talking about confidence but she simply has none. Seven straight games she lost to Suarez says all about it. She will have it even tougher here. Gavrilova did great in Madrid and lost to Chirico, who is better. But the manner in which she won the first three matches was really impressive. She did everything Lisicki struggles with. Expecting the German to do anything here is really not normal. The German was never great on clay court and she never went past the second round in 4 seasons in Rome. She has only 4 games in the previous match against Gavrilova this season. Granted, that was early in the season but that says something as well. Things will be even more difficult for her on clay court. The German didn't do much since the start of the season. She is still struggling and making a lot of mistakes. She struggles with every segment of the game and the confidence she is talking about simple doesn't exist. Details

Pliskova tricked me last week. I thought too much of Safarova's results at the beginning of the season, but she improved drastically in a span of weeks. At least judging by that match. But Karolina actually showed her weaknesses in that match in Stuttgart, but also later in controlled conditions of the fast indoors clay. She just doesn't know how to move, and I was shocked that she went all the way here in Prague last year. But when I saw that she won four matches in three sets, and played 22 games against Wickmayer, it was all crystal clear. She played Voegele five times, lost both clay ones, although that was a long time ago. But, Voegele took Karolina far over this margin when indoors, and took a set from her on the grass in Doha last year when Karolina was on a roll, they played a match with 22 games. That's all from the last three seasons. Karolina played over 24 matches this year, ending 15 of them over this margin. Last year, Karolina played ten clay matches (tournaments), and eight went over the margin, six of which in three sets. Voegele played 27 matches this season, going over this margin 15 times. She went over twice against Kucova, once against Dodin, both players similar to her opponent today. Now she'll face Karolina on clay, in her first match on the outdoor red clay, while Voegele played one tournament and four matches like these since last week. With those circumstances and their duels so far, the results Karolina got last year, I think she definitely won't have a walk in the park here. Details

Wickmayer played 21 matches this year, 15 of those over this margin. She played a long set in one of the matches, and there's one match with this exact margin. Taking those two into consideration as well (it could've easily gone over), we reach a number of 81% matches over this margin that Wickmayer played this season. Last year, she took all four matches here over this margin (three in three sets, 22 games against Karolina Pliskova in the semis). She doesn't really care about her opponents' styles, and that includes Giorgi today. The Italian played 20 matches this year, and surprisingly, only went over this margin seven times. Her last six matches were all in straight sets, so we'll assume that that run has to end sooner or later. The Italian is the tricky one when it comes to the numbers here, but her style is known. Considering that neither Wickmayer nor Girogi are able to keep their focus throughout the entire match, this seems pretty evened out, like it was when they faced each other last year in the Prague first round. That match went to three sets, but considering the conditions in Prague - cold weather, surprisingly fast balls, we should expect them to go over this margin in straight sets even. Details

I simply cannot accept the fact that Muguruza is set as such favorite here. She pointed out that clay here is like carpet, that it is very fast and in accordance with that, we will have a lot of 'tight' results. Babos convincingly defeated Lisicki in the first match here. She used that match as good adaptation, and she could have felt the strength of serve and strokes. Something she did not have in matches before facing Muguruza in Doha. She has it now, and she has a great rhythm lately, in each of her last two defeats she won a set, lost tightly to Tsurenko in straight sets. Muguruza is prone to inconsistencies in her performances, and that is why today I will bet on over of games, and not on counter-handicap on Babos. It wouldn't surprise if Muguruza players one of 'those' matches, because she had them this season. But even if she plays a good match, Babos has shown that she is capable of achieveing big things this season, and in such circumstances, with one match already played here, under these conditions, she cannot be such an underdog. Details

Karolina played indoor on hardcourt in Switzerland this past weekend. If today's match was being played on outdoor clay, there is 99% chance I wouldn't be writing this prediction. But since it is being played indoor, on very fast clay, then not even last weekend is stopping me to bet on this. The first reason for this bet is her opponent. Safarova played 4 matches this year, lost all four without winning a set. And in the last three occasions, against stronger opponents, she convincingly lost all matches. Safarova is not at the right level, not even close, she is at around 50% of her abilities. With such performance, and I don't see what could have changed in those few weeks, she cannot compete against any of the stronger players. Karolina is definitely a strong player. She dropped a win against Golubic this weekend, but she also won two matches on Sunday which returned her confidence. Of the last five matches she won, she didn't cover the handicap only once, against Konte. At the two Australian tournament she covered it twice. Safarova is currently not playing serious tennis. That may sound rough, but it's the truth. I am not giving her a lot of chances against Karolina. One set might be tight, but not because of Safarova's performance, but because of KArolina's, but in the long-term, she should win convincingly. Details

Yesterday Schmiedlova "payed" in margins of today's odds against Wozniak. If you ask me, completely non-understandable and unjustified. Schmiedlova beat Wozniak, a player who after all trouble still comes back to true tennis and who this season didn't get off of hardcourt (except for two national team matches). She won in three sets, but she showed a lot of problems, and her opponent didn't serve well. She says she's tired now, and today she's up against a player who has huge potential and strength in her tennis. Abanda's impression wasn't bad even yesterday, and against Cibulkova who came here in top shape. That's why I expect this to be a far more even match than the odds suggest. Schmiedlova lost whenever she could this season, and the bad things from those matches can't be improved overnight and with one win against Wozniak. Besides, she herself said she is in a crisis. Abanda can win in such circumstances. She has it in her tennis, this is the first match of the day and the Canadian will surely try to go until the very end. Details

I do not understand why the odds at this handicap margin move like this. They were introduced as expected, then got up and then started dropping again. I think they will go back to where they were at start. It seems like they were done according to who Cibulkova is and Parmentier's ranking. If so, that is a big mistake. The Slovak had some problems and ups and down in her three matches here. She was 1-4 down in the third set in the first round and struggled with Kulichkova in the second set. Realistically, both could have gotten a set. Parmentier is the only semifinalist who has not yet dropped a single set. That really says it all. No only has she not lost a set, she has not even lost a single service game in 2 out of 3 matches. Her footwork is great, her reading of the game as well. Also, the serve is good, as is the return. Her shots have depth and power and it seems like she has two solutions for every situation on the court at any given moment. Cibulkova won't have it easy today. She failed to stay at a high level throughout the match here and Parmentier is capable of punishing her for that since she's been very consistent. I daresay she stands a chance of winning here. The handicap is a great way for us to be safe. Details

Babos played 6 indoor matches last year, five of them went over today's margin. And in four matches she played at least one tiebreak. This year she played 4 indoor matches, all four went over this margin, and in three she played at least one tiebreak. The Hungarian's performance in these conditions is well known, she focuses on the serve, on the return only if an opportunity comes, and she often plays matches at high number of games. Golubic has shown progress this season, but she also often played matches at high number of games. Her numbers, however, should be looked at differently, because of the quality of her opponents. But she went over against Gibbs, Bertens, Voegele indoor, Suarez Navarro. In the first set against Kania here she showed some problems on return, but she also served well. With such approach, and her performance throughout the season, we should expect a suspensful match today. Babos, in my opinion, does not deserve to be such favorite. And that is why we have such margin today. Yesterday she pointed out she is fatigued, which was felt later in the match and Golubic will have a chance today. Between the counter handicap on the Swiss and over of overall games, I choose the latter. The numbers are clear, I expect at least one set in tiebreak here, and in such scenario, this bet is a good choice. Details

By watching Serena here in the second round, I said the player who comes up against her in the third round is going to be done for. When I saw she was playing against Diyas, I was convinced in this prediction. When I saw they were playing last year at Indian Wells, also in the third round, there was no doubt. Last year Serena left Diyas at two games won at Indian Wells. She earned almost double more points (56-31), she won 62% of points at the return (28 out of 45), and she had 14 points lost at the serve. Diyas had two direct points in that match. Serena wasn't at her best, and she still convincingly won. Today is a similar story to last year. Serena lost a set to McHale here, even though she could have convincingly won in two sets. Diyas, compared to last year, didn't get better in her game. For the first time this year she tied wins here, but that was due to luck with the draw. Last year Serena went to the end in Miami. She played six matches up to the title, and in four of them she won inside this prediction (she went over only with the unpredictable Lisicki and Halep). Looking at this season alone (wins), out of 12 matches, Serena has seven unders and five overs. She went over against Giorgi in the first match at Wells, against McHale here at the opening. The only "odd one out" was Putintseva, and only in the first set. Out of top names this year she stayed under against Azarenka, and we can add Keys here. Last year here Diyas lost to Bellis who took the serve from her seven times. Diyas managed to catch three games, and then that same Bellis in the third round was left at only two games against Serena. This is a conclusion which is definitely worth for today's pick. Details

Petkovic - 15 games, Watson - 15 games, Niculescu - 15 games, Nara - 15 games, Bertens - 18 games. These are the matches Pereira lost this season on hardcourt. She will lose today as well (Ivanovic's win can be seen as a safe bet), there is no doubt about that. The set margin does not make much sense in my opinion. OK, statistically speaking, Ivanovic does not have good results on this margin, but the context of the match and the opponent are crucial here. We cannot put Top hardcourt players in the same basket with Pereira. That is why Ivanovic has bad stats on this margin, but I repeat, the context of the match is crucial. Pereira has shown this season that she cannot achieve anything outside clay court. Her serve is weak, inefficient and Ivanovic will get a lot of chances there. I would dare to say in almost every service game. Pereira lacks strength in her strokes, and she cannot compensate for that with footwork. Everything here depends on Ivanovic. This season she covered this margin against Gavrilova, Sevastova, Patterson, against Gasparyan and Kozlova convincingly won a set. She lost to aggressive players (twice to Pliskova, Keys, Broady), and two players who have a 'flair' in their performance (Vinci, Strycova). Pereira does not have anything mntioned above and she cannot be compared to hose opponents. Ivanovic needs a convincing win here, both result and performance-wise. She could not have asked for a better draw at the start of the tournament. Details

Doi won the title in San Antonio last week but her game was really not good. The only thing she's better at is ranking. She has 6 defeats and two finals this year but she beat Top 100 players only three times. Pironkova and Hssieh are barely Top 10 players. McHale has 4 head-to-head wins over Doi. The Japanese covered this handicap in the first two matches but that was 6 and 4 years ago. Last year she lost by 5 and this year by 6. Doi didn't cover this handicap in 13 out of the last 14 WTA defeats. She has not covered this handicap once this season and lost by 6, 4, 3, 6, 10, 4 and 7 games. McHale found rhythm after opening the season badly She covered this handicap in 12 out of the last 15 matches. She covered it in each of her 7 wins (won by 6, 5, 4, 5, 8, 5 and 7 games). She never lost in the first round here in the last four years. She has wins over Cirstea by 4 points, over Jie Zheng by 6, over Kontaveit by 9 and Voskoboeva by 5, which means she managed to cover this margin in all 4 wins. Details

Hats off to Agnieszka Radwanska for getting the second place, and Kerber for winning Australian Open, but in the long run, the only one being worthy of comparison to Serena is Azarenka. The ranking doesn't show that this is the clash of two best world's players, but that will change. Azarenka took a set from Serena in their last three matches, she's got two wins before that, a set won at the US Open in the big final, another tight match in Brisbane. They've faced each other eight times in the last three years, and Serena got only one convincing win, and two defeats. Azarenka missed some key gears (Madrid last year, US Open three years ago) to get a few more wins. Their score could've been a lot different in the last three years.
I'd say Azarenka finally has everything clicked this year. True, she can play even better, but she's got the results. Serena struggled against three tough players here. Against Halep the least, but Putintseva had two set serves, Agnieszka had chances in two first sets. The match against the Polish shows Serena's problems. The problem with Agnieszka is that she doesn't have the strength, the depth of her hits, and she depends on the game on the other side of the match too much. If Azarenka was in her shows, I believe she'd win in straight sets.
The Belarus lost two sets here, against two aggressive players, but she never seemed like she could lose those matches. She reacted great against Stosur as well, and especially against Karolina Pliskova in the third set of the semis.
If this match was played in different circumstances, I wouldn't be writing this pick. There's a huge respect towards Serena and the way she got her wins against Azarenka, and also the way Azarenka was missing her chances. But I didn't expect these odds here. The court works for Azarenka here, the bounce and the speed of the court. In these conditions, she can show Serena's weaknesses. Putintseva and Agnieszka did it, and Azarenka's got more wild cards up her sleeve. Serena tends to have her ups and downs, amplitudes in her game, as was obvious in her last three matches against Azarenka, but also against Putintseva and Agnieszka here. The Belarus is even stronger, she took a set three times last year, and this season her tennis is even a level better. Details

I almost wrote a pick for Kvitova and Kovinic in the second round, but I gave up on it. I was actually on a good track. The value for a similar pick is smaller today, but still worth it. Kvitova was two points away from losing to Kovinic. If the Montenegrin won the point at 00-30, she'd have three match-points and I'm almost sure we'd be seeing her here today. Kvitova got away with it, but once again, showed her weaknesses at the beginning of the season. She lacks rhythm, makes too many errors, has problems with her serve. She's not consistent, and that's really old news. She had a set and a break against Brengle, and lost the match. She had a set advantage here, and had to save herself against Kovinic here. She lost to Gavrilova, Niculescu, Halep. Ostapenko - Kvitova had a set advantage and then only three games for the rest of the match. The former three are all tough, stable, and that doesn't work for Kvitova. The Czech goes up and down all the time. These conditions aren't working for her, either. She has to work for every point, and she can't do it. Larsson improved, and I'd dare say she can not only give Kvitova a hard time, but maybe also beat her. Everything those players did to Kvitova, Larsson can do. The Swede has a low center of balance, she attacks the ball early on, makes few errors, and is tough. That means Kvitova will have a hard time. Since Kvitova can't be consistent throughout the entire match, it's up to Larsson to take at least one set. She did it in the last two tournaments, even though she was beaten in the end, so I don't see why she couldn't do it against Kvitova. Details

Anything but Putintseva's win would be a massive surprise in my opinion. Peng's playing her first singles match since Roland Garros last year. She only played three doubles matches since, and the last one was at the Australian Open. Just the fact that she didn't play in Shenzen where she got invited, and she played Australian Open singles, speaks plenty of her form. Also, she pulled out of the last three tournaments because of the hand rupture, and I think she's just coming here to Indian Wells to try it out. Expecting her to force anything in the first singles match is ludicrous. Also, Putintseva's got everything that doesn't suit her. She's almost in the Top 50, which would be the best ranking of her career, she's motivated, she's got rhythm this year. Most importantly, Putintseva is very tough on the court, her balance center is low, and she hits the ball fast. None of this works for Peng. She'll have to work hard to get points, and I don't think she's ready for that. Also, after everything she's been through, her physical readiness is questionable, too. She's probably quite tired after her first match in ten months, and I don't think she can do anything but lose convincingly here. Details

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Bencic played two tie-breaks against Crawford and Sharapova this season. She went over this margin against Lucic, Makarova, Pavlyuchenkova. Wins against Babos and Riska stand out, but Bencic served great. That's more important than the return in that match because Vandeweghe's serve is stronger and more efficient than those in Babos and Riska. The American showed the force of her serve in the first round here. She allowed break chances in one serve game, won 88% first serve, and lost only one second serve point. She struggled with the return, though, and got her first break chances when Flipkens had a set serve. Bencic showed against those aforementioned players that she serves well, and used their bad return, the same problem Vandeweghe struggles with. We can expect at least one tie-break here, like they did in Miami three years ago (Vandeweghe won 6-3 7-6). Coco had the surreal 96% first serve points then, and lost only one serve. She got her chances on the return more often, but we have to keep in mind how much better Bencic got in that regard since. She left Riska and Babos with only one break chance in the entire match. Details