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This text will be published soon. Details

Keys played overall 26 matches on hardcourt and grass-court, so on faster surfaces. Of the 26 matches she played, she won 16, and she covered the 6.5 games margin only twice. Once against Krunic, who has clearly been on a downward trajectory in the past weeks (six back-to-back defeats with only one set won), and against Koukalova who appears lost in a majority of her matches. So the numbers are on our side. Keys is not a player who demolishes, and that's no secret. With the earlier mentioned numbers, she only won three matches by 6 games, the rest went below. She defeated Koukalova here by six in the first round, but Koukalova had two balls for a 5-1 lead in the second set. With that, Keys didn't use her break chances in two service games in the first set. Smitkova hasn't been in form for a while now and I don't intend to convince anyone to believe that. But she has been improving and is not losing convincingly. She covered this handicap on grass-court in all of her four defeats, against Hercog and Bencic on hardcourt before US Open, while she lost with this handicap only twice in the first half of the season. She covered this handicap in five of her defeats in the first half of the season.
These are numbers that can't be ignored and they reveal a lot. Keys is not a player that demolishes with her tennis, she wins, but not convincingly. She has had some oscillations in the first round here, and I don't see a reason why it wouldn't happen today again. Smitkova can win her games by serve, if a chance opens with return as well. It is not easy to cover this margin, especially when you're facing a player who has a great serve and strong strokes. The lack of pace doesn't suit Keys, that's no secret. With that, she will be under certain pressure here because she is put into a 'must-win' situation. Smitkova is probably aware that she has nothing to lose. She can play relaxed, and wait for a chance. But she definitely has enough quality to compete with Keys, and I repeat that Keys is not a player who will play at a top level from start to finish. Details

Siniakova didn't play since Bad Gastian, which was more than 40 days ago. She had to walk on crutches for three weeks with a right leg injury. She has displayed progress but not enough of it to be able to deal with top players in the world. She is not powerful enough and will have to work hard four each point, which will be more difficult after the ankle injury. Especially since she will face Radwanska, who has excellent technical skills. Siniakova came here to try and see how much she can do but that's it. She would not be able to cause Agnieszka too much problems even if fully fit. I wonder what she will do like today without rhythm and after the injury (three weeks on the crutches plus rehab). Details

Tig is currently a single spot short of the top ranking of his carrier. She is soon going to make it into Top 100, I'm sure of it. She sailed through the first qualifying round here to win by 6 games and I don't see any reason for her not to cover this margin today. Hibi beat Gallovits, the player who didn't have a match since Wimbledon and hasn't been herself after getting back to playing. Hibi won in three sets, dropped two games in the third set but Gallovits didn't use break points in Hibi's three separate service games. Hibi is not very good, she is struggling with serve, forcing drop shots on backhand, while her forehand isn't too great either. Tig is on a higher level, she made progress this season, which should be enough for a convincing win over this kind of an opponent. Details

Garcia lost both head-to-head matches to Kvitov but at the same time proved she can put up a good fight. The circumstances are on er side here. She beat Lisicki yesterday in a very good match. Her serve was finally good and her shots powerful enough. Kvitova, on the other hand, didn't have a good preparation for the match. She no longer trains as much and knows it will take her a while to find form. Until she does, we have to try and take advantage of the situation. She is 5-5 in Cincinnati, having recorded a single win in the past two years. Humility doesn't help her here (asthma) and she still hasn't recovered from mono entirely. Garcia stands a chance today and I think that all option have value. I think this will be a close match with a lot of games and three sets even. Details

The situation is very simple here and we will keep it short. Both Coco and Safarova often play sets/matches at big numbers, and their only head-to-head match was just like that. It was decided in two tiebreaks, and they both had great numbers behind both of their serves. Cincinnati is a very fast tournament, everyone pointed that out and I don't see why we wouldn't be watching another head-to-head match at high numbers of games. Coco dominated with her serve against Putintseva here, Safarova didn't give a single break chance last week until mid-way through the second set. We should also expect small number of chances on return on both sides of the net today and the over seems like the most logical choice. Details

This is a clash of two different worlds and that means we should be in for a close match. We have Coco on the one side with powerful shots and serves while on the other hand, there is the tough and consistent Putintseva. In a match in which we do not have two top players, one can expect a tough meeting. Coco records overs often, both in the first set and in total. She had two matches in three sets after Wimbledon and clearly still isn't at her best. Putintseva has been doing very well lately but she's prone to problems in these conditions lately. Giving the upper hand to either player here doesn't make much sense, especially because of their game styles. But we should expect a close and tough match, especially because of Coco, who can force anyone into a games over. Especially when she's playing some with Putintseva's style. Details

Hradecka finished yesterday's match against Puig at 20 games. But the match should have gone at much more games. Puig had 30-15 on her serve in the first set at 5-4, but Hradecka took a break. In the second set, Puig had 4-1 lead, 30-30 on return in the seventh game, 30-15 in the next game on her serve, two break point chances in the ninth game for the fifth game in that set, and 30-30 in the tenth game while Hradecka was serving for the match. So, Hradecka almost made that match even more suspenseful. When it comes to Hradecka, we can always expect suspenseful matches, and of 25 hardcourt matches, 14 of them went over this margin, 11 of which were played on three sets; so almost half of them. Maria, on the other hand, has even better over numbers on hardcourt this season. Of the 16 matches played, she has 10 overs above this margin, seven of which were played in three sets, again almost half. Maria knows how to play against hitters, she took Riske into three sets two weeks ago, even though she was the underdog. Hradecka is always prone to oscillations, and she has shown that here in part as well, and she played a match at 39(!) games against Kudryatseva last week. It will only take extended set here, because it is hard to expect that either player will impose her game style. Hradecka has the strength, Maria the ability, and she gave away only one break chance against Rodina yesterday. A match that is definitely leaning towards three sets, which is also a good option, and the margin is such that this can also pass in two tight sets. Details

Petkovic had said at the start of the season that she was confused with defeats, and that she wants to get out of the Australian tour alive and well. A lot of things didn't work in Petkovic's game at that time, but that was all forgotten with a few good results. I have been following Petkovic quite a lot from the start of the grass-court season, and I can't shake off the impression that something weird is happening with her again. She hasn't played very well, especially not on these two tournaments played on hardcourt. I watched her in Stanford, almost wrote a prediction on her against Barthel, and on two matches here in Toronto. Carina took a set from her, Barthel won the match, Abanda caused a lot of problems for her. All three of these players are aggressive, they took the initiative from Petkovic and that's when the problems start for the German player. Carina failed to keep up the pressure in the second and third sets, Abanda failed in the final efficiency, Barthel eventually won the match. The match with Barthel was marked by Petkovic's outbursts in the second set. So, when things are not going her way, she gets more and more frustrated. She defeated Watson in straight sets yesterday, but it was quite difficult. Realistically, she should have left Watson at two or three won games. Should have, but didn't, which tells us enough about the fact that she is not playing at a high level. Her results, which haven't been so great lately, are better than her game. Serena has something Carina, Barthel and Abanda all had - the strength of the serve and strokes. With that, Serena is, in all segments of the game, several levels above all those players. Petkovic lost the initiative against those three players, and I wonder what the match against Serena will look like. Serena had a slower start against Pennetta, and then left her at three games in the last two sets and in the end won by five. Petkovic simply can't win a set here today, and another thing is important for this match. Petkovic had a slow start in her last four matches, she struggled, couldn't find her game. Even if Serena has a slower start of the match, Petkovic will hardly create a bigger advantage, and once Serena catches her pace and takes the initiative away from Petkovic, she will have a great advantage. Details

Bencic has the survival gene, especially against aggressive players. In those cases, the strength of her tennis comes to the fore, her combinatorics, and her clever thinking and setting up on the court. But these are always tight matches where details decide the outcome and suspenseful matches can and should always be expected. Looking at this season, in comparison with the playing style same/similar to Lisicki's, Bencic went over this margin against Smitkova, Mattek, Konta, Konjuh, Lucic, Barthel, Georges, Mladenovic and all these matches were tense. That is no accident and it does say something. She played only one head-to-head match against Lisicki this year. Lisicki hit 27 aces, and Benic could/had to win the second set because she had 4-1 lead. So, even with such performance, Lisicki's match went on to 20 games, which is close to this margin. Lisicki won two matches here, defeated Venus with her strength, but she had some problems against Strycova. Especially in the rallies in which Lisicki is always having problems.
When it comes to Lisicki, it doesn't matter who her opponent is. You can always expect that she will play a dramatic match. Looking at this season, Lisicki played 36 matches, one wasn't finished, and of the other matches, 13 were played on three sets, eight were finished in two sets, but went over today's margin, and three matches finished at 20 or more games. So, of the 35 finished matches, 24 Lisicki's matches were played at around this number of games, and most of them went over. Both statistically and playing-wise, this margin has a solid footing, both on Bencic's and on Lisicki's side, and is definitely worth a certain stake. Details

The two tournaments from last week and this one partly showed how much players who haven't played with Wimbledon are struggling. It's understandable and expected and that I think will happen to Safarova today. Her last match was also at Wimbledon and since she's aggressive, I'm sure she will need time to find rhythm for sure. Gavrilova knows how to handle tennis that Safarova plays. She beat Kulichova, Riske, Sharapova, Ivanovic and Giorgi this season. She had made massive progress through hard work and patience. Gavrliova has no respect for anyone and I don't see why she would have any for Safarova today. She already played a match here and two before, which gives her the upper hand. Safarova's wins this season were all struggles. Gavrilova can get a set here and I'm sure at least one of them will end in a tie-breaks. That should be enough for this margin to go even in straight sets. Details

Gibbs doesn't have good results this year, but now she's at home, at US Open. Gibbs isn't the only American player who likes to play in front of the home audience. Here she scored three wins, which is a third of all her wins this year and that's no coincidence. On Australian Open she showed she can deal with Svitolina, she lost two tie-breaks, and in the second set had five set-points. Svitolina's problem is the aggressive Gibbs and that doesn't suit her. The handicap is set very high, and if you ask me that's not realistic, it's based on both of their results. But we have to take into consideration that Gibbs this year already troubled Svitolina, that she can stand up to her. Gibbs is in front of home audience and she will give more than her best. Besides, Svitolina covered this handicap only twice (5.5) and in the firs two matches of the new season. Gibbs can reach a set today, but the border is simply such that it will pass in a modest defeat in two sets. Details

Osaka eliminated Stosur here last year, and then Petković beat Osaka in the second round, but commented that we'll be hearing from Osaka. Petković wasn't wrong. Osaka has the best ranking of her career at the moment, and it's a question of when she gets to Top 150. She'll turn 18 in October, but her game is much better than her current ranking. Even though she's Japanese, her game style isn't. Her serve is good, as is her forehand, her footwork, and the game that approaches the net. She likes to dictate the rallies. True, she tends to oscillate in this phase of her career, but she's got a great chance to get a win today. She'll face Kimiko, a player with no serve, no strength, and Osaka will be able to play her game. She feels best there, and builds her advantage, which is especially obvious in the fast conditions of Stanford. Kimiko is still playing, but she's dragging herself a lot. She got five out of ten wins this season in the last two tournaments, but got 17 defeats. Kimiko still struggles with the injuries a lot. She forfeited in the quarterfinal at the last tournament because she had problems with her hip, thigh, pinky finger, and she said she felt pain all over her body. She couldn't keep it together, playing so many matches broke her, and then she cancelled Lexington. Things aren't much better here in Stanford either. With all those previous pains, she's struggling with her knee now, and the question is if there is one body part that Kimiko isn't feeling pain in. Osaka's got the motive, the game for this court, and she's got the game for Kimiko. Kimiko is in deep water, she managed to push her game on the Tour, but that won't work against Osaka. Details

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Errani had problems in all three sets and that's only continuing from last year from this tournament. Yesterday Kasatkina took a set from her, and she didn't play that well. She also doesn't own a serve to score easy points. She has to earn them through exchanges. She also isn't aggressive. True, when she played during the match a little bit more aggressive, Errani didn't stand a chance, and that will be the case today. Knapp played two matches yesterday. Physically she looks really good here. Even though I doubted that would be the case before the tournament. She turned Larsson in the second set, turned both sets against Hercog and in the end won twice in two sets. That's no small thing and indicated how confident Knapp is here. She needed time for some things to "click", and when she did that, there was a difference on the court. To turn Larsson and Hercog like that is not something anyone can do, especially when we're talking about two very good clay players.
When I line up all the pluses and minuses of this bet, then it has a value Besides, anything has its value against Errani on fast surfaces. Errani showed a lot of weaknesses, both on her serve and her hits. She could have outplayed her opponents in all three matches, and today that won't be the case. That's the minus in this bet, but that's part of the height of the stakes, because you never know what kind of a day will she have against the Italian. This year Knapp left a good impression on clay, she won the fast Nurnberg, took sets from Svitolina and Ktivota. Knapp is prone to oscillations, but this is a match which will depend on her edition. In Bad Gastein's fast conditions I still trust her more against the non-convincing Errani. Details

I followed Errani in Bad Gastein last year, just like this one. Her saying that it's easy to play here are not just empty phrases. The ball does really bounce in a tricky, if not strange way. It is also very fast and it's well known that Errani has problems in that case. She struggled with match openings last season and later lost to Rogers in semifinals. Things have no changed this season at all. Errani played two matches here and struggled in both. Kasatkina showed to have a bright future ahead. She is an all-round player with good segments, she did well in all of her matches here and tactically outplayed George, who beat her a week ago. Errani is no.1 seed but her game is not good. She's been complaiaing about the conditions here for two years. Kasatkica, I'm sure, can make this complicated. Errani doens't have Georges' power and Kasatkina can develop her game here. She can attack Errani's serve and shots. Zanevska did it very good and almost beat Errani in the third set. I think Kasatkina will not lack that final move like Zanevska. I'm sure Errani will keep on struggling and Kasatkina can beat her with a good performance. Details

We already said that ranking plays no part in Paszek's performance since she is capable of so much more. Her carrier so far confirmed it and she is announcing it as her goal. The start of the season was tough but she has enough matches to be trusted. In these kind of conditions when the shots are fast and aggressive game bears fruits, she can do a lot. Her motivation is going to be very high. Even if Knapp was totally fit this handicap would make no sense. Like this, it's even more valuable. Knapp has no matches since Wimbledon, she struggled here with her ankle and pulled out of Bucharest last week. Lack of rhythm is the worst thing for her now. Details

I saw Koukalova in her first round Bastad match last week. She kept on struggling, with a lot of the segments in her game failing her. That has been going on for a while now. Her second serve percentages are bad, she has bad tactics on the court, fails to take initiative and when does, often makes mistakes. That is a consequence of the pressure since dropping our of Top 100. She was a Top 20 player not that long ago. Koukalova has great potential but that cannot live off reputation. Momentum is on Friedsam's side . She has been doing well the past few weeks. The conditions here suit both players but these fast conditions strip Koukalova off of reaction time and cause even more problems. This tip is more against Koukalova but I also cannot ignore what Frisday did in the last tournaments. She has the game for these conditions and should be able to cover this handicap. The margin can do in three sets and as the match advances we can expect Koukalova to get worse since she lacks consistency. Details