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I think this will be a tough game, Trieste are now weaker offensively, they are playing without their best player, who scores 15.3 points on average and the best option here is the overall under. The first two play-off games finished at 128 and 143 points. Looking at the round of 16 games, I have a minor problem, because Trieste went up to high numbers in all three games against Treviglio. But Treviglio play much faster, they have the best offense in their division with Virtus Roma and leaders Bella, but they have also conceded the most points than all the teams that qualified for the play-off so I would take that with a grain of salt. Tortona played all five games against Mantova in the round of 16 under today's margin. Looking at Trieste's home results against the top teams in their division, they have 135 against Virtus Bologna, 133 Fortitude, 136 Mantova, 146 Ravenna, 136 Treviso and I think this is a goo dthing, since Trieste's best player is out, and it is obvious from their numbers that they are good defensively and they will focus on defense today. Details

I expect a tough game, I do not expect it to fall apart and the best option is once again the total under. One quarter like the one in Game 3 can happen. 52 points were scored in it and I would not want to gamble with which quarter that will be. Both playoff games and both h2h games of the season stayed at low numbers. The first playoff game finished at 120 points, the second one was at 142 points with 52 in the third quarter. Both h2h in regular season stayed well under this margin, the first one at 135 points, the second one at 123 points. Sassari's coach said that Trento play a dirty game and that they will respond accordingly today. I expect them to stay under this margin which didn't change compared to the second game. The stakes are high here. Sassari cannot slip, the defense will go full throttle and I don't see why not try with an under again. Details

I wrote the same pick two days ago, and nothing has changed since. I'm only more convinced that these are good teams. The first playoff one ended at 120 points, with a big fight for every point, and I expect that today. Both of their duels in the regular season ended far under this margin, 135 points and 123 points. THere were no easy open shots, no rushing, and I expect the same today. There were some minuses in the season, inconsistencies, but the stakes are huge here and nobody will relax. Compared to the first game, the margin moved only two points, and the game stayed 25 points under the margin, so I think there's enough room to atke this pick. Details

I'm sure this will be a tough game. I don't expect it to fall apart so the best option is total under. Both h2h games stayed well below this margin - the first one at 135 points, the second one at 123. Looking at comparable games Trento played home, we have 152 with Avellino in the last round, after insanely good shooting percentages in the first half. They went at 122 with Venezia, limited Brindisi at 48 points, Brescia at 59. There are some cons here - they played at higher numbers with some faster-paced teams like Reggiana and Milano. The greatest problem here is the 190 with Pistoia. They scored a lot with weaker teams but Sassari of this season is different. They win their games through defense. They had some offensive problems and stayed under against good defenses on a regular basis (142 and 137 with Avellino, 147 Pesaro, the 155 against Venezia is a problem, 137 against Capo d'Orlando, 137 Pistoia. Looking at away games in CL, we have 135 against Monaco, 134 against Le Mans, 147 against Nymburk, 136 against AEK. They have many more relevant unders away. The stakes are high, this is the first playoff game, motivation is at high level and I have no doubt that defensing ends will play the key roles here. Details

Canaries have by far the best defense in this competition and they regularly recorded unders against more defense-oriented teams. They limited PAOK to 54, they recorded an under in Greece, had unders with Lyon in QFs in both games, played at 144 with Avelino here, at 121 with Oostende, at 136 with Juventus, 120 with Strasbourg. Looking at the Spanish championship, they have 127 with Valencia, 139 with Real, 119 with Zaragoza, 130 Gran Canaria, 131 Barca. There is no reason to doubt their defense here. Venezia got past Avellino in two very tough Round of 16 games, they played Karsiyaka at 145 and 140 points. They got limited under this margin with teams that have better defensive ends. With Le Mans, Vantspils, Khimki and Rishon in both games. We'll go with the first half under to avoid any kind of nerve-wrecking finish. Canarias have a lot of offensive problems, they had 58 with Zaragoza, 54 with Lyon, 44 with Valencia. In this kind of meeting, I don't see this going over 70. Venezia will have a lot of offensive problems given the injuries, they won't rush into anything, Canarias will go hard against their back court. Venezia have a lot of relevant unders by half time, with Avellino, the previous ones in Champions League. They will now face the best defensive end, I don't see this over 70 points by half time. Total under is a rather good option as well. Details

I expect a tough game from start to finish here. The only option is a total under. Capo Orlando played with Reggiana at 121 points here, Venezia at 154, Trento at 134, Sassari at 137, Pistoia at 143, Milano at 136. That means that in relevant games they have an over only with Venezia by one point. They have an under with faster-paced Brescia, Caserta, Varese. They have overs with super fast Torino and Brindisi and bottom table Cremona at 155 points. Looking at the more relevant away games for Avelino, we have Venezia at 153 points, Reggiana at 156, Pistoia at 126, Sassari at 145. There are some downsides for this tip, especially Brescia. Torino and Brindisi aren't relevant. We have their meetings in Champions League where they stayed under with all the defensive-oriented teams like Canarias, Oostende, Strasbourg, Venezia. They have unders with Pesara, Varese and Cantu. I think there is some leeway at this margin. This is a very important game for both teams. I don't think they would fall apart, the playoffs are imporatnt for Capu and they will go full throttle in defense. The first h2h is not that importnat, the stakes were much lower, Avellino went 14-for-25 from the three point range, 19-for-27 from the two-point range. I don't see them at those numvers today. Capo have better rotation today, Avellino have the second center and won't go small as much. I don't see this going over this margin. Details

I expect a tough game from start to finish and the best option is total under. Looking at Pesaro's home games, we have a relevant under with Cremona at 136 points, Sassari at 147 points, Cantu at 151 points, fast-paced Torino at 131, Capo at 138 points, Pistoia at 126, fast-paced Trento at 151, Avellino at 115, Brescia at 139. They have overs with fast-paced teams like Reggiana and Brindisi. The meetings with Venezia and Varese are not good but I think both of those teams are better in offense than Caserta right now. Pesaro managed to stop some of the fastest teams in the league home like Torino, Vantu and Brescua. They are 9-for-4 in unders home at this margin this season. Caserta's defense lately cannot be ignored. They have the over with Torino but Caserta conceded just 13 in the last quarter. Before that, they limited Brescia (126 points in total), with Venezia at 119, Capo at 145, Trento at 132, Milano at 152, Pistoia at 141, Cremona at 154. They are 7-for-3 for unders in the last 10 games. There are some problems there - the game with Varese. But Sosa was still on the team back then. He is now gone and Caserta have clearly turned to defense. They are strong in the paint and I don't think there will be easy points here. Cantu might be a problem as well, but since Recalcati got on the bench, they got better in offense and 102 points were scored in the second half. That won't be the case today. They had an over in the first h2h but with 30 points and 11 assists by Sosa, who is the key offensive player. Pesara said this game in crucial in their bid to stay in the league and I don't see it over this margin.
Both team unders are a good option, as well as total first half under. Details

This game is important so I expect it to be tough, and I'd only pick Caserta's team under. Their offense got weaker a lot lately after Sosa left, and Bostic is questionable today, so I don't think they'll get higher numbers. Looking at their last defeats, they never went over, the closest they got was 79 against Cantu. This is really important for Torino, they're fighting for the playoff and their defense is definitely going to do their best. I had some doubts because Torino have the worst defense of the league, but I still think this margin was set too high. Torino allowed Pistoia 78 in the last round, 81 to Milano, 76 to Cantu. There are some minuses there, they allowed a lot of points against limited teams, Cremona, Brescia, but Caserta didn't go over in the last 15 games, staying at exactly 82 points twice, and at 77 points in their first duel against Torino when Sosa was still playing and hit 37 points. I don't see them going over 80 today. Details

This match is important for both teams because they're fighting for the second place, which means home floor advantage till the final, and that is a big deal in Italy. I expect this game to be tough, and I'm thinking it will end with the under total. Their first league duel finished at 158 points, but with 52 in the last quarter. The Champions League two went to 102 and 130 points, far under the margin today. Venezia went over this margin only twice in the last 15 games, when Torino fell apart and the game ended at 159 points, and on the road against Cremona when they played the worst defense this season. Looking at their home games this season, they went over against Torino and Cantu when those two fell apart, and against Orade in an irrelevant Champions League game, and Saratov who aren't relevant, and Milano who are far stronger than Avellino offensively. Avellino lost a lot lately, focusing on the championship alone now. They played badly lately, but they can definitely play the defense. They had 142 points with Sassari, 156 with Reggiana who are much faster, 148 with Milano who hit only 68 points. They went over against teh fast Brindisi who fell apart in the first ten minutes, with Brescia, and Torino who are playing the worst defense in the league and like to play fast. They stayed under against the tougher teams, twice against Sassari, Trent, Pesara, Pistoia who are always good defensively when they're playing at home. The only time they went over in the CL was against Cibona. All in all, Avellino's results don't really favor the under pick here, but because of how important the game is, of Venezia's results and Avellino's relevant games, both in the national championship and the Champions League, I think this won't end with high numbers. Details

I expect Crvena Zvezda to control the game and win this. I'm thinking about handicap for Zvezda most of all because they're better than Budućnost in every area, showing that in their three duels this season. Things are special today, and Zvezda are going to want to win this no matter what because of the Euroleague. They have to play Unics at home this week, and they're counting on the points there, and they're hoping that Brose might help by beating Darussafaka. If the Turks win in Germany, then Zvezda will play Darussafaka in the last round to decide the last quarterfinalist. So, a free weekend and a week of practice at home would mean a lot, not only because Jović would have time to recover, but they'd also get more rest. That's why I'm sure they won't let Budućnost have it easy today. Zvezda easily covered this handicap this season in their duels, at least 15 in their first playoff match, but completely controlling the game. Budućnost didn't have a chance against teams similar to Zvezda this season - Bayern, Unicaja, they lost everything convincingly, by 23 in the first duel here. Budućnost don't have Williams today, and he makes half their team offensively, so that's a huge handicap and I'm sure Zvezda will take max advantage of that in this situation.

A good pick could be team under for Budućnost because they didn't hit that much in any of their duels this season, only 75 against Unicaja. Zvezda are extremely strong defensively, Budućnost couldn't hit that when they had Williams, and they shouldn't be able to with only Gordić and Popović as point guard. Details

ABA league is priority for Zvezda, they knew that since the season began, and the coach Dejan Radonjić clearly said so when announcing the game. No way they're going to relax, they've got to win this to secure the Euroleague, and they won't even think about the quarterfinal. Zvezda are the best team defensively, with Lazić, Jović and Jenkins pressuring Williams, and without him, Budućnost are in trouble, as was obvious in the last game. Williams played the first half very well, was out in the second, and Budućnost hit only 21 points in the second 20 minutes. Zvezda covered this handicap in both their duels this season, and they covered this in home games against much stronger teams in the Euroleague, like Cedevita. Budućnost didn't do well against strong defensive teams, Unicaja, Bayern in Eurocup, and I think things are working on Zvezda's side here, and they will cover the handicap. Details

I expect Buducnost to win easily and to control this game. They need it to keep the hope even though they now need other teams to slip too. They have the visit to Zvezda left and they hope to take advantage of Zvezda's focus on Euroleague as well as the fact Zvezda are under no pressure. They lost to Partizan by 27 (17 by half time), to Zvezda by 31 (19 by half time). Against Cibona, who are also at the top, they lost by 19 (26 at half time), to Cedevita home by 14 at half time, 7 at FT. In the first H2H, Buducost had a 6-point lead by half time and controlled the game until the end. They trashed Karpos Sokoli in the last home game (25 by half time), they had a 9-goal difference with Partizan by half time, and 16 in Igokea game. The start to Mega Legs game was not good because Mega were not motivated and do not suit Buducnost. Before that, they had 13 by HF against Olimpija, 10 against Cobina, 8 against Morbar, Krka 17, Zadar 11. All season long, they didn't cover the first half handicap only against Mega Leks. They were close against Mornar. FMP are under no press and their top scoerer Covic is out.
Team over at Buducnost seems like a good option, FMP had attacks if 5 seconds in the last game and I think Buducnost might use that. Half time option is still a bit better. Details

Cibona will play their game, they will definitely rotate the roster since FEC is more important to them. That is why I'm inclined to believe in Cedevita's win. I even believe it could be a convincing one. We have the two h2h games this season - 20 in ABA league, 19 in the Croatian championship where Cedevita played without all of their foreigners and Marko Tomas. Cedevita are today only without Luka Babic. They are busting with confidence after trashing Jolly in Cup final. They beat them by 36 points and they beat this Cibona. I think the handicap is set too low given the circumstances. Cedevita have 9 wins in the last 10 games. They may not be doing brilliantly in ABA league away games but I think Cibona don't stand a chance today. They are on a 5-game losing run in ABA league, they are to face Stelmet on Wednesday while Cedevita have no reason to hold back. I expect their convincing win. They need to win all the remaining games and wait for Buducnost to slip. Buducnost still have the trip to Belgrade to meet Zvezda and Cedevita cannot afford to lose any games. Details

Limoges went over this margin only once in the whole season in home games, and it was against Gravelines who are a lot faster than this Strasbourg. Limoges is led by Dusko Vujosevic who is known by his teams playing defense, and that's seen on their results. With the run and gun Chalon at home they remained at 140 points, and for comparison's sake, in the first away match they were at 156 points, in an away game they left Le Mans at 71 points, the match went to 148 points. At the start of the season they had a few overs, and with the bottom-table nancy who allowed the most points in the whole championship. The minus is the match against Paris, and then Orleans, but it's been three months since those games. Lately Limoges didn't have a over against the ultra fast Chalon and Cholet, and Pau Orthez without Collet at the bench. From that match in October they only have the two overs against very fast teams. When they stumbled against defensively stronger teams, then it looks like that: Monaco 139, Paris 140, Canarias 120, Aris in the last match 123, Le Mans 144 (een though Collet wasn't there then). By looking at all of those latest matches, they have the minus with Le Mans in the last round where they recorded 92 points and allowed only 63, but I think that won't be the case today. Limoges have two wins less, and they want to make it to the playoffs a well, I don't think the match will fall apart, and they should win. The stakes are high and I will try to use the two defensively good teams. This is also an important game for the away team who are currently on the last, eighth place, leading to the playoffs. They lost to Aris with 19 points of difference, today they will try to be better than in that game, and this looks to me like a game in which they will fight for each point. Let's just mention that the first head-to-head remained at 139 points. Details

I will start with some things that might be less important, but they can affect the bet. Enisey have been at home for 11 days, they haven't traveled, they trained and played two games and won both of them, against Unics and Parma Perma. Demir had to travel to Siberia which is never simple, they are coming here after two unpleasant defeats, and the last one at home to Balikesir was especially painful, they conceded 87 in the regulation time, made 20 offensive rebounds, and Enisey are the best team in VTB in that segment, which is a big deal. They faced each other twice already this season, Enisey won the first head-to-head by 9, lost the second, but without the Americans on the team, so without two of their best players and in the situation when they already knew they advanced through the group.
Looking at Enisey's latest results, we come to the conclusion that they had Kuban on the ropes, but Hilliard missed two free throws, they conceded a three pointer in the last seconds, later they defeated Benfica, Unics and Parma. There are some games there that are not in favor of the handicap, at home against Donar, but they were at 3-0 then, in a good position. That is the biggest downside here, but we have the first game here, a big difference in form right now and I think we should use it.
Another thing is important here, and that is the schedule. It is important to win today by the biggest possible margin. There are no games in the VTB League over the weekend because of the All Star game, but Enisey have an important game against Kalev in the battle for VTB play-off the weekend before the game in Turkey. On the other side, Demir have no games that week because of the Turkish Cup, they will prepare solely for Enisey and the Russians need a good lead today ahead of that unpleasant away game. Hilliard is eligible for today's game so Enisey are complete.
Statistically speaking, Enisey covered this four times at home, failed to do so twice. Demir's record on this margin is 2-4 in Europe, but they lost to Rilski. In the Turkish championship they have a single away win the entire season, they covered the handicap only against Besiktas and Banvit of the more serious teams, and I think they will not be able to compete against the Russians today, for whom this competition is very important and they reached the Final Four last season. Details

This is a match which means a lot for both teams. Since MZT won esterday, now Krka and Zadar share the last place and whoever wins today will buy themselves some peace. Zadar are on a four-game losing run in ABA League, and in those last four gaes they recorded 75 points against Mega Leks, 65 against MZT, 80 against fast Cedevita, and 65 against Zvezda. Zadar don't have some special offensive power, that was seen in the last game on Friday where they recorded only 53 points against Sibenik. On the other hand, Krka didn't go over 73 points in ABA League in ten games in a row, and then came Cedevita in the last round. There they recorded 90, but Cedevita is no real measure. They're always fast, and Krka recorded 83 points against them in an away game in the first half of the season. Cedevita oscillate a lot, they came a day after an uncomfortable defeat in Split, and on Wednesday they already played against Alba. Krka aren't a team who score easily in away games, and since this game is a matter of life and death for Zadar because of the tough fixture, I think we'll see anything but a fast-paced game today. In the whole season at home, Zadar has only five overs on this margin, out of which one was against Cedevita, one against Zvezda which fell apart, one eagainst the very fast Mega. They also have an over against Igokea, and that's maybe the biggest minus here, and against Karpos Sokoli who fell apart in the second half. On the other side, Krka at the start of the season had some overs in away games, against fast-paced teams like Cedevita and Mega Leks, and in matches where they recorded a lot of points. After that Mega they had Mornar at 159 points (they recorded 73), and five unders in a row. Considering the importance of the game and the offensive inability of both teams, a total under seems like the best option. I don't expect the game to fall apart, and another fact that goes hand in hand with the bet is tradition. In Zadar in head-to-heads in the last four years there wasn't a single match over this margin. The first head-to-head remained at 159 points, but at the time Krka and Zadar both pushed hard, the relegation battle wasn't in sight. Today, the situation is completely different. Details