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Aris had a pretty slow start to the season, mostly due to all the injury struggles. They lost Sanikidze right away, Kavvadas and Buckner got injured soon after and then important players like Jenkins and Jankovic. Their form is much better now, the subs for those injured players fit in well on the team and things are overall much better. They are on a 6-game winning run looking at the Greek championship. They are on a 6-game winning run overall. They had a +17 lead after 20 minutes over Lefkadas, +16 over Kolossos home, +16 over Kyrmis home and last round +22 over Apollon away. They had a 13-point lead over Ironi on Tuesday on Tuesday.
Lavrio are 3-8. They beat Lefkadas by 1 away but against better teams, they have not done too well away. They lost to AEK by 40 (-25 at half time). They were at -7 against Rehtymno, at -14 against Promitheas, -10 even against feeble Koroivos. Aris' defense is among the best ones in the league. Lavrio are quite modest offense wise and I expect the visitors to struggle quite a lot on the offensive end. Aris are 7-4 which is not what they expected so far. They are, however, making a progress. The form now and at the start of the season cannot be compared. The team from Thessaloniki have opened the last few rounds brilliantly and I expect something similar today. Details

The meeting between Bayreuth and Brose this season is not just a local Oberfranken derby match. It's a derby at league level as these teams are in spot 4 and 2 in the table. Bayreuth are 6-1 home, they play a great offense but also a very good defense. They have 7 unders and 7 overs at this margin and have gone over this margin only against Ulm and Alba, that is, against very fast teams with top defenses in the league. Brose are a completely different kind of a team, they have 10 unders and 5 overs and are under 150 on average away. No one in Bundesliga has such a powerful defense (thy allow 66 on average) and I don't think Bayreuth will be at their usual offensive numbers today.
This is a local derby match in which tensions are high, the games in Bayreuth are tough. Since Trinchieri took over at Brose, they won 85-53 and 69-50 in Bayreuth. They met once this season, at end of preseason when Brose won 84-53 in Bayreith. The visitors are the favorites again but Bayreuth have improved form in the meantime. The 12-2 record says it all and I don't expect them to fall apart like in preseason. Brose got limited to under 150 with run-and-gun teams Ulm and Telekom. And interestingly, this is a meeting between teams with the least possessions in Bundesliga. That means they won't rush into anything. Details

Usak had a turbulent season so far, and that means bad results. They only have 2-6 score in the FIBA Champions League, and they were crushed by Neptunas last week, falling apart in the second period already. They lost to ASVEL convincingly the round before that, and their only convincing win was against the stumbling Varese at home when they also fell apart in the second period. So, those two games marked with second periods pumped up their statistics (scored 88 and 87 points). Neither of the rest went over 74 in the regular time, and that was their score against Ventspils at home. They also hit 65 against Neptunas at home, and 60 to Oldenburg.
PAOK didn't have a great season so far either, but they have been consistent defensively in the Champions League. They are one of the best teams in that regard because they only allow about 66 points, not counting the overtimes. They allowed 65 against Rose away, 70 against Varese, 68 against Neptunas and 67 against Oldenburg. They didn't allow over 71 in any of the home games in regular time. They left Usaka at 52 at home (PAOK won the home one 91-68 in the preseason).
It should be pointed out that Usak fired two important players recently - the point guard Lyons whose average was 14.8 points and 6.9 assists in the CL, and the center Monroe (13.4 points with 8 rebounds). True, they've got Harrison and Auguste in their roster, who weren't playing their first duel against PAOK, but McKissic is not ready by any stretch, and losing their main point guard and a decent center, paired with their unconvincing form are definitely not the best start for the duel against the tough Greeks. I doubt Usak will push their rhythm here, I don't see PAOK as an outsider, and if the guests don't win, they will give a very hard time to the hosts' offense, like they did to the teams even better than Usak. Details

In the second round of the Belgian championship, Oostende lost to today's opponents Leuven in an away game with -9. They were leading at half-time and at the beginning of the final quarter they had +7, and then they came to a complete stop in the last quarter and lost that period with 16-32. and surprisingly, the Bears won. In the first round Oostende lost to Mons with 66-79 at home, and before that they lost at home in the Supercup to Antwerp, and in the pre-season they also mostly lost. The reason for the weaker pre-season and the start of the championship could be explained by the lack of four national team players during the whole summer, all important players, and a couple of also key ones who were plagued by injuries, like Gillet. The Belgian champions needed some time to get together. Gjergja also brought some new faces (Mwema) and the Champions League began...
For today's prediction the important fact is that they're together, in the right shape, and now they look like they did last season. In the Champions League they beat Avellin, Canarias, they tightly lost to Mega and then on Wednesday they beat Cibona. In Belgium, after being defeated by Leuven, they beat the strong Brussels at home with 17 points of difference (by half-time it was +15), Liege with 28 (21), Okapi with 23 (16), and they only had a hard time reaching points at home against Antwerp (+5). However, the Giants are extremely competitive this season, I daresay next to Oostende. In the last two rounds Willebroek, Oostende won in an away games with 22 points of difference (half-time +22), last Satuday they beat Mons in an away game with +10 (+9).
The win over Mons best paints the picture of their better shape they are now than they were at the start of the season, and definitely the motivational element of a revenge will be present today. Leuven solidily started out the championship, in the first four rounds they recorded three wins. But, realistically, the Bears don't have a bigger quality compared to last season when they ended at the very bottom, they don't have the width, and as the rounds go by, their shape is on the fall. They're on a six-game losing run, in the last three they lost with more than 15 points of difference, as much as they lost at home to Liege, in an away game against Okapi they fell with -18, they lost to Limburg in the last round also with -18 (Limburg were on a seven-league game losing run). In away games their record is 0-5. Last season, by the end of first half, they were losing in Oostende with 13 points of difference. Tonight, as the worst case scenario, I expect something similar. Oostende said they remember well the defeat in Leuven, their shape then and now can't be compared, and that they won't head light-headed into the game. Details

Yves Defraigne has been at Mons for a long time now and club phylospohy isn't changing. They rely on tough defense and aggressve game. That may be more obvious than ever this season. Mons have the best defense int eh league after the first quarter of the season. They allow 71 point on average but also have the worst offensive end, which hits around 75 on average. Those numbers are even lower home. Oostende are better offensively, there is no doubt about it (average around 81) but we all know what Belgian league is like. Most teams play fast without real defense. Oostende have the second best defense (allow around 74) and that is important here, just like the fact they played Mons at 145 points in the first round, hitting just 66. Mons were mostly under 150 back then and even Limited Limburg to 57 points. They barely went over 140 with Antwerp, at 134 with Brussels, at 134 with Spirou.
Oostende finished with Spirou at 143 in the greatest derby of the Belgian league and went over this margin in most other games. Given the game style of their opponents, that is no surprise or that important for this game because they play much differently than most Belgian teams. They got limited to under this margin twice with fast-paced Telekom in FIBA Europe. Oostende play Champions League and base everything on defense. They recently played Mega at 146 points, Canarias at 128, Juventus at 128, Strasbourg at 138, Mornar at 146. They were limited to under 150 this season against all more serious defense oriented teams. The Belgian champions are a bit better than before. They lost some important shooters last season and didn't replace them with players of same quality. They recently acquired Mwema who won't get much in offense but will contribute defensively and athletically. Details

AEK's coach, Jure Zdovc, was very angry after the win over PAOK at Saturday, he knew they did not play well, but they won their sixth game in the Greek championship, they won points at an unpleasant away game. They were good defensively, as they mostly are this season. Only Besiktas went over today's margin against them, in the FIBA Champions League the concede 63.3 points on average, they play games at 145 points. Ludwigsburg are also defensively oriented under coach John Patrick, and they play tough games at low number of points against stronger teams. For example, in the Champions League, they lost to Stelmet 70-72, at home to Partizan 64-65, to Brose in pre-season 63-82, at the championship at home 48-60 and in Frankfurt 63-65. These are relevant games for today's game against AEK, we can also add that on Sunday they did not go over 73 points against defensively modest Alba. They will have the most difficult offensive task of the season today against AEK, I doubt Zdovc will give up on his tactics and that the Germans can dictate the pace here. Details

PAOK have had quite a few ups and downs so far in the season but they mostly played less productive games with tougher teams. They beat Aris 66-62 (33-32 at half time), played 59-52 with Usak home (23-25). It was tough with Roso in Champions League as well - 65-65 in regulation time (33-30 at half time). Among the teams that are defense-oriented are Lavrio whom they beat 73-63 (37-38) and maybe ASVEL (31-67, 31-35). The only exception is the Panathinaikos game in the first official meeting of the season in Cup quarterfinals.
AEK play very tough defense this season. They conceded around 58 points in the Greek championship and hit over 80 vzt realistically, they have not been met with a defense this good. In FIBA League, they trashed almost all opponents, limiting them to under 60 except for Besiktas, who are much better than most Greek teams when it comes to defense, even PAOK.
PAOK and AEK played 5 games last season and stayed low in 3 of them. Zdovc came to Athens mid-season and has now had the entire summer to get the team organized. AEK are great defense-wise and PAOK mostly got limited to low numbers this season with similar teams. I expect something like that today as well. There are more good options here, the best one is team under at the home team because AEK never hold back. They do not decline in the second half, on the contrary. Details

- In the last games we showed some cracks in defense and we have to patch them up now. We cannot count on same offensive production against strong Frankfurt, like we did in previous games. It is always important to play good defense in away games, that will be our focus - said Bayreuth's coach Raould Korner. His team conceded a lot in the last two rounds, but Alba have put all of their focus in defense this season, they play very fast, they demolished Giessen already in the first half, so the game fell apart. Bayreuth, on average, concede 74 points, they conceded a lot over today's margin against Ulm (81) in the 1st round when they lost in overtime, and it is known that Ulm have the best offense in Bundesliga with an average of over 90 points.
Today they have an away game in Frankfurt which means big battle and it is hard to expect the offense to dominate. After horrible Braunschweig, Frankfurt are the weakest offensive team in Bundesliga, their average is at 67.5. They played 11 official games this season and thy went over this margin only against Bremerhaven and Alba, and against Ulm over 70. All three of these teams are offensively oriented, not very convincing defensively, they play very fast basketball. Frankfurt were limited to 61 point over the week at the FIBA Champions League against Helios, last weekend at home against Rasta also at 61, before that against Wurzburg at 64, at home against Ludwigsburg at 65... Bayreuth are definitely stronger and defensively better than Rasta and Wurzburg, they already showed that this season, they are on a six game winning run, it would not be surprising if they continue that run, and in case they do not, Frankfurt definitely won't have an easy job in offense, in pre-season the Skyliners lost to Bayreuth at home 61-75 (30-34), last year when they had a much better team they were limited to 75 against Bayreuth (29 at halftime). In my opinion, the best option here is Frankfurt's under at halftime, because in all games this season, they went over 36 in the first 20 minutes only once (at Wurzburg), they were mostly under 30, or just a bit over that. Details

This is a clash between the best offense in the Polish league and the best defense. The preseason already showed that the home team could struggle with defense today. Their roster is made of Americans with dubious quality who have so far not done much and bad Poles. It's no wonder they are on a 2-0 record. Tarno have not gone over 67 points in the championship so far. (they hit that much against Stelmet when the game fell apart). They hit 51 against Turow in a game that also fell apart, 60 against Stal, 60 against Rosa last weekend away but Rosa are not on last season's level. The home team hit 60,5 points on average and they are now to face Torun, who allow just 64 on average (61,5 away). Torun have a much smaller budget but the team is well-organized, especially the defensive end. They have no defeats, they limited Trefle to under 60 points last weekend and have done the same thing against Dabrowa Gornicza away. They trashed Rosa and limited them to 64 points away. Only Stal managed to get 70 points but that was in the first round. They will have point guard Wisniewski today. I don't think their approach will change. We can expect a tough and aggressive game which Tarnobrzeg cannot handle. Other than the team under, the visitors' win with a handicap is a good option as well. I think Tarnobrzeg will not go over 70 either way. Tarnobrzeg first half under is also a good option but total under seems better since they hit more points in the first 20 minutes than in the second half so far. Torun limited the opponents well under the margin even though some games fell apart. Details