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Just to clear something up right from the start, I don't expect Buducnost to openly 'tank' this game because Jovovic is simply not that kind of coach, but I definitely take into consideration the fact that ABA League has the priority over Eurocup for them. Since I mentioned the ABA League, Buducnost have a home derby against Cedevita ahead of them, a game that is much more important for them because they want to reach the Euroleague, which they desire for years now, through the regional competition. Last season in the Eurocup, Buducnost also played games at a higher numbers of points, eight out of ten went over this margin. The squads may have changed, but the point is the same. Buducnost don't try too hard in the defense in Eurocup games. As far as Banvit are concerned, whoever read the competition preview doesn't need any additional arguments. The team is quite offensively oriented and they have a lot of points. Fortson and Slaughter are 'killers' in the backcourt, Simmons isn't far behind them, Johnson and Moerman on the wings are also offensively oriented, and center Vidmar diligently collects rebounds around the basket and scores. This margin is too low for this season's Banvit and we should use that while the season is 'young'. Besides, Banvit have more quality, and it is logical to expect the better team to impose their own pace. In this case, very fast basketball. Details

Gravelines won by 22 goals in the Cup around 15 days ago. Both teams played with basically the same teams and I don't see what could have changed in this short period of time. I think nothing changed and that the first few two rounds only confirmed that Gravelines have the team for the top 5-6 while Reims are set to struggle to reach playoffs or even to have to fight to avoid relegation if they don't improve in defense. Granted, they had a very unfavorable schedule since they met two playoff contenders. Strasbourg beat them by 19 and Pau Orthez by 9 points away. Gravelines are among those playoff contenders. They first beat Nancy by 6 goals and then Rouen by 22 home. Rouen are close to Reims in style. The visitors will have to look for their first win somewhere else because Gravelines should win this by a double-digit point difference. Details

Finished. Details

A duel between the first (Darussafaka) and the second (Gaziantep) defense of last year's regular season. Why are we saying that even though the teams went through a lot of changes over the Summer? Because the same coaches stayed on both benches. Mahmuti in Darussafaka, Zdovc in Gaziantep. Both coaches are more defensively oriented, and they put their teams together in accordance with that. Zdovc managed to keep the excellent defender Calloway, and he will be leading the attacks as well. They have a great offensive player, Rautins, but the rest of the team is more useful defensively than offensively. Gaziantep are also much older, their ideal five are over 150 years old together, and I don't expect those 30-something-year-olds to run like crazy. Darussafaka acquired tall and heavy players over the Summer. Their tall players look impressively, and when you have Dagli, Slaughter, Erden, Savas... in the team, there isn't much transition there. And it's not like Harangody and Bjelica are very fast. In the end, their job is to score from the floor (Redding, Markoisvili, Preldzic, Arslan, Gordon), they are not the classic scorers. These two teams faced each other at the start of the pre-season. Gaziantep won 76-72, but we shouldn't take that match into consideration because the teams were not complete. I don't see them as relevant, but it is significant that their two head-to-head matches last season ended under this margin- The first at 110, the second at 141 points. Both teams oscillated result-wise during the pre-season, there were some overs and unders on this margin, but the main arguments here (slower pace, defensively oriented coaches, good defenses) are pulling towards the under. Details

Dijon were defensively oriented last season, too, but Borg couldn't get his players to show their best defensively, and that cost them the playoff. Borg is now removed, and Legname has been brought from the second league Hyeres. He insists on discipline and defensive game, so no wonder he brought Julien from Hyeres with him, to play the point guard position, the most delicate one. He trusts him to no end, and he'll know how to lead the game under his guidance. Dijon played nine matches in the pre-season (seven friendly, two Cup), and stayed under this margin seven times. Twice over, but that was against the fast Chalon (151) and Roanne (150). Orleans' coach is defensively oriented as well. He couldn't make his team completely follow his instructions when he just took them over in February, either, but he managed to get everything to his taste this summer. They left all of their opponents under 70 in the pre-season, except for Havre (83) and Chalon (79). In five of ten duels (eight pre-season, two Cup), they were under this margin, and here's why those five overs happened - they scored 91 against the offensively weak Cholet, and it went to 153, 88 to Rouen and it went to 156, and they conceded 79 against over-prone Chalon (went to 156), they scored 91 against the second-league team Angers in the Cup (went to 151). Only the match against Havre doesn't fit in (lost 83-86), but that was the very beginning of the pre-season. Considering both coaches' philosophy, I think this match will more likely gravitate towards 145 than 155+ points. Details

Kunter made Le Mans into a defensive force. They were among the top five defenses of the league last season (74.6 points conceded per game), and even though they lost their main defensive player Kahudi, Gelabale is pretty much just as good. Le Mans showed they prefer defense over offense in the pre-season. They conceded over 75 only against Limoges, at the very beginning of the pre-season, and in the last five duels (four friendly, one Cup), again, only Limoges scored over 68. They've got 6 unders in 8 matches on this margin in the pre-season, and Cholet was a bit over this margin (76-73). Paris changed their coach and a good part of the team, as did Le Mans, but Rigaudeau showed in the pre-season that his team won't be rushing. They played eight matches, Cup included, and went over in only two - they scored 85 against the Belgian Willebroek who aren't afraid to run, and another team prone to over, Rouen. These two teams played a friendly match a month ago, it ended at 134 points, and I don't see what changed in the meantime that would make this match lean towards 150. Paris have Rich now, but he himself won't make it happen. Le Mans have Gelabale. Details

If the situation on these teams was like last season, this margin would definitely make sense. But, in the current situation it does not. Sibenik lost Vrkic, Samadan, Misic, and Marcius, while Vukicevic can't play with a back injury. Only Basic, Petani and center Krajina possess good quality, while the others are just inexperienced youngsters. Sibenik simply doesn't have the team capable of finishing with a lot of points. Alkar also lost a lot during the summer. Top scorer Vitali, the legendary Slako Modric and Peraica left. Glavinic, Sipic and Tesija joined but just like at Sibenik, Alkar do not have offense quality. Alkar don't run much under Vuskovic, with Glavinic and Juer Boban being the only players capable of hitting shots. Both teams knows they lost quality compared to last season and wins in these kind of games will mean a lot in the battle to avoid bottom table spots. On top of everything, this is a local derby match, which is another argument for a tough game. Details

The had to decide whether to go with the handicap or the team over at France. The latter is good as well but I decided on the handicap after all. Russia lost to this France 93-55 in a test game. That was in France, another one of blow-out wins for the French. Apart from wanting to win the gold here, they also want to entertain their fans in a way. They are trying to record as big a win as possible in each game. They beat Serbia in the preparation period by 13 (Serbia were without Teodosić, Erceg, Milosavljević), Russia by 38, Ukraine by 33 and 32, Georgia by 42 and Germany by 24. Only Belgium gave them trouble but that team does not suit them since it's good at preventing the French from rebounding. France beat Finland by 16 at the championship but the opponent hit some shots and things got complicated. They beat Bosnia 27 but could have won by 40 points if necessary. The Poland game was a struggle but Poland are better than Russia. Waczynski had unbelievable shooting in that game and Poland, just like Belgium to an extent, can grab a lot of rebounds. Russia cannot and that is something that will give France a chance for transition and counter attacks. That is what they crushed Russia through in the test game. Russia lost the test games to all the better opponents easily (Greece won by 15, Serbia by 34 and 19, France by 38). Also, the are 0-3 and things seem to be headed down hilll for Russia, which France should be able to take advantage of. Details

The yesterday's handicap for France against Finland seemed low to me, I took it, and it didn't pass. The French had +16, then even +14, but they couldn't go over. Firstly because there are Finnish players who can score fine, and the Scandinavians were carried on the cheers of 3500 fans. They felt like they were home. France lost to Finland in the first pre-season match, and then came back home to work their frustration on Serbia (who were without Teodosić, Erceg, and Milosavljević), and beat them by 13. Then they also beat Russia by 30. There's a sea of difference in quality between BiH and Serbia, and even Russia as they are look better than Duško Ivanović's team. Bosnia don't have a Koponen, Salin or Wilson in their lines to make life bitter for the French, and the home team say they will perform. If the Bosnians aren't sure what that means, they can ask the Ukrainians. I'm not even bothered if the main links of the French get some rest because they've got to width to be able to afford it. The French beat their rivals in home matches this summer by 30+ points regularly (Russia 38, Ukraine 33 and 32, Georgia 42). Only Germany stayed under 30 (+24). At the same time, Bosnia were losing to the stronger teams convincingly - Croatia 12 and 18, Greece 18 and 39, even to Russia by 30. They don't have the width and I expect them to spare their best for tomorrow's duel against Israel, which is far more important to them. Details

Even since taking over at Israel in 2014 Edelstein's been trying to impose his style, which is based on fast pace, counter-attacks, transition and fast flow against zone defense. We saw all of that yesterday in the dress rehearsal against Croatia when they managed to hit 41 point in the first half against the good Croatian defense. All things considered, it was not a bad performance for Israel, even though they struggled against the zone in the second half. Israel went over this margin in the last 3 games, which is not a coincidence. Russia have been through a lot during this preparation period and their performances on the defensive end did nothing to impress me. When things are going good in offense, they do not pay the defense too much attention. Israel are not top defense and since I expect this to be a rather productive game, this option that Israel will record the team over seems to be the best. Russia conceded 72 goals in 8 our of 13 friendly matches. They stayed under this margin against Estonia in the first game, against Venezuela, who are not capable of scoring 70 goals against anyone, against Bosnia, who are bad in offense, against Georgia, whom then they were very motivated against because of the relations between those two countries and against Italy who are...well, Italy...I think Mekel will have a lot of room in transition, Dawson and Casspi love fast pace, the tall players are quite fast as well. I think the margin is too low for Israel's game style. The two friendly matches they played last summer are important as well since the teams were quite similar. Israel won the first game 87-72, lost the second one 82-75. Details

Tall players are the biggest strength of both teams here. That should result in slower pace and a lot of ball in the post either for Gortat and Karnowski on the one or Kikanovic and Stipanovic on the other side. In other words, fast pace in not expected today which means the teams could rely on their key players - the centers. That is no surprise because the back court is not good, especially Bosnia's. They are constantly talking about aggressiveness fierceness, pride and honor. And Bosnia will do their best today not to concede too many points. Offense-wise, they are very limited even though their final test games scores don't suggest that. But Bosnia played three good defenses (the Czechs, Israel and Estonia) and Croatia, who had a brilliant shooting night and the defense didn't play. This Bosnia is capable of 65, 70 points max in a serious game. Poland depend on Gortat too much and that is precisely why they will not rush into anything today. In that case they lose his efficiency and I'm not sure the guards and forwards are good enough to beat this opponent. Poland did have all kinds of results in est games but in the final three before the EC they displayed discipline and limited the opponents to 65 (Iceland), 52 (Belgium) and 58 (Lebanon). I expect their defense to be at that level today in defense, with the offensive end struggling to score each point. Details

I had this very same tip when these two teams met in group stage. The margin was set at 132.5 points then and they stopped at 132, but Coulibaly scored a three pointer at the buzzer. This is a game for the seventh spot and the margin is significantly higher. I personally do not understand why. Granted, this is in theory not a particularity important game but that doesn't change the fact we have to teams with bad offensive ends here. Mali are averaging 61.7 points per game (second worst) while Gabon score 64.5. Both are at field goal efficiency of around 36%. Mali had surprisingly high 36 percent in that h2h game but I don't think that will happen again today. Gabon had shooting efficiency of 31 percent. They combined 56 turnovers and that makes it very difficult to expect a lot of points. More so because both teams will have some 50 shots from the floor, which should result in some 60 points with the expected efficiency of 35 percent. Details

The margin is slightly increasing, which only confirms that I'm (probably) on the right track. Cameroon are a run'n'gun team who had two overs at this competition (Egypt and Gabon), an under with Mali who are often in the under, and a game against Algeria at 144 points, but the importance of the match slightly hindered the teams. The Cape Verde statistics are not in favor of this pick, but I watched them and I know what I'm talking about. They play fast, look for transition and they are solid in 3 pointers. They scored 47 and 50 points by the halftime against Algeria and Ivory Coast respectively, but they stopped later when they had a big lead. They stayed at 139 and 144 against Zimbabve and Gabon, with 14-13 in the last quarter (Zimbabve) and 26-38 in the second half against Gabon. This is their farewell from the tournament, their coach has mentioned the problem of motivation, but in my opinion, that primarily refers to the defense. This is, for me, a match for over 150 points, not under 140. Details

I think this margin is still too low considering these teams' game styles. The Philippines' defense is very porous, the coach Baldwin says the results aren't his priority, but to try to make some things work in their game. They played at 170 points against Estonia yesterday, 151 against the super slow Netherlands, and they concede 89.5 points per match. Their offense started working against Estonia, and that only adds to this pick. Iceland force faster game, transition and shorter offenses, and will definitely like playing an opponent like this one, because the offensive players will finally get a chance to work their thing, after staying under 70 against Estonia. But, the Estonian and the Dutch defenses are a different world compared to the Philippines. The Icelanders like to shoot a lot of three-pointers, and that's normal for the Philippines. Even though the Icelanders stayed under this margin in all four pre-season matches, their opponent makes me take this bet. I think the over for the match is worth a medium stake. Even if Stefansson doesn't play for Iceland. Details

I don't want to sound like a smartass, but if the bookmakers invested a bit more effort, they'd know why Ivory Coast lost the first round to Capo Verde convincingly. It seems the bookmakers thought that was only a bad day or whatever, judging by the odds they set. But in reality, Ivory Coast came to this competition with their second line-up because their best one are on a strike for not being paid for playing the Afrobasket in 2013. Only Diabate is here, and he can't do everything himself. Zimbabwe lost the first round by 20, just like Ivory Coast, but they matched Algeria well, and didn't deserve to be beaten like that. They fell apart to the opponents' zone, and lost strength by the end. The Ivory Coast can't play that well, their biggest strength (point guard and a bit of the center position) is also where the Zimbabweans are the strongest. Considering all of this, this is an evened out match in the worst case scenario, but I would even suggest that Zimbabwe are the favorite here. Details

The margin is low, but so is the offensive power of these two teams. Gabon scored 49 points with 34% of shots from the floor in the first round. Mali scored 58, but with 28.6% of shots from the floor. I wouldn't say that was because of their opponents, these two teams simply lack offensive quality. Mali have become a real defensive machine under Lautie. In the qualifications for the Afrobasket they played against Senegal twice - 65-43 and 50-47. Their results in the preparations for this competition were: Ivory Coast - Mali 42-62, Ivory Coast - Mali 76-62, Algeria - Mali 63-57, Algeria - Mali 60-66, Senegal - Mali 61-52, Mali - Cape Verde (in Senegal) win by 32, result unknown. So, all of their matches were, more or less, at a lower number of points, and they played the same way against Cameroon in the first round. In the AB qualifications, Gabon played against Central African Republic 79-75, but with 65-65 in the regular time, 65-51 and 72-56 against Chad and one over against Central African Republic (75-64). They displayed numerous offensive flaws in the first round game against Egypt, and Mali are, I would dare to say, even better defensively. Since winning this match means avoiding Tunisia in the Round of 16, the importance of the game also comes into consideration and this one shouldn't go over.
The limit is quite spread out, so the stakes should be modified a bit for a margin below 130.5. Details

The betting houses opened yesterday with the 4.20 odds on Cape Verde. The odds are now much, much lower, but I still see value in their win. That is, the set handicap is not too high, in my humble opinion. You could have read in the preview about the problems Ivory Coast is having, I will just sum it up here. Pretty much the entire first team is boycotting the African Championship because the premiums for 2013 haven't been paid out, coach had to make a whole new selection of players from the national league in the middle of preparation period. It is questionable what that will look like, Cape Verde would be a tough obstacle for Ivory Coast even if they were complete. Their national team is serious, very good for Africa, and they proved that two years ago by winning the 6th position. All in all, this should be an easier win by Cape Verde than the bookies suggest. Details

The Montenegrins fooled me two days ago, but, of course, there's no confirmation that they calculated to set up Sweden in the semi-final in order to avoid Hungary, but I can't stop feeling like that's exactly what happened. Jovovic was furious at his players because of the way they played, maybe that was a show for the public, maybe the players did it behind his back. Irrelevant, these two teams now have ahead of them the game of the Championship. The winning team goes into the finale, which is less important, they also secure a spot in the Division A. This is a clash of two best defenses, Sweden limited their opponents at 55.2 points on average, and they never conceded more than 65 points, which is what Belarus scored against them. With 87 points conceded against Finland, Montenegro still have the second best defense at the Championship and they concede on 61 points on average. During the preparation period, they had five out of seven unders on this margin, three out of six at this tournament, and they went over it in the blowouts against Kosovo, Georgia and in the last game against Finland. Sweden went under in all three preparation games (Austria 75-51, 72-44, Denmark 63-57), and in two out of six at the Championship, and they went over against fast Slovakia with 85 points scored, Moldova at 137 with 96 scored points, Albania with 97 and Belarus with 82 points scored. There won't be a blowout today, and I don't expect some crazy offensive numbers either. This is an important game and this should be a match dominated by these teams' strong suit - defense. Details

My assumption was that the bookies will go with a 125-point margin at this game. I could be wrong, but I think this margin is way off. The Portuguese coach said they have to limit the opponents at 50-55 goals in order to be able to hope for a win. That is pretty much what I ad in mind. This Portuguese team is not capable of being extra productive. The highest number of points they scored is 67 (against Luxembourg). They scored 57 against the offense-oriented Georgia and have 4 big unders at this margin and one over (Luxembourg). Romania have 5 overs in 6 games but their only under is with another under-recording team - the Netherlands, who scored 80 poins against them. Romania struggled with scoring against good defenses (54 to the Dutch, 64 to Finland). I expect the same to happen here. I also hope that Portugal will not be very productive in offense. I think the bookies are way off with this margin. Details

I simply can't agree with this margin and the fact that it even grew from the initial one. Firstly, Montenegro have, with Sweden, the best defense of this championship and they allow only 55.8 points per game, and they still haven't conceded over 62. During the preparation period, they had six out seven unders on this sum, only their friendly game against Slovenia went to 150. Finland played at 'million points' against Luxembourg yesterday, but that scenario won't happen again today. Firstly, Finnish selector Mirolybov said multiple times that the basis of their game is also good and aggressive defense. They mix together different kinds of defenses, and they are equally good at all of them. They are at 62.7 conceded points on average and that's with the 83 against Luxembourg. Yes, they have three overs in four games at this margin, but let's see against whom - weak Romania against who they scored 89, Austria to whom they scored 85, with 22 conceded in the last quarter, and Luxembourg. The only serious game, the one against Netherlands at the start, they played at 122 points. Furthermore, even though it is not known against whom from the second group they will be playing in the semi-final, Sweden is almost definitely first there, and the Hungarians will probably be second. Based on what they showed, the home team is an easier draw, so today's match carries certain significance. I see a chess match between two great experts. All in all, too many arguments against a game at 150 or more points. Details