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The sure win I went for last week didn't work as I underestimated Kuhn's comeback and his importance to the team. He basically beat Fuchse single-handedly. Without him, they lost home to Bergischer and made everything complicated. A win in Berlin would make the last round irrelevant. A defeat would mean they have to win in Lemgo, who are first below the line. That would be like a final in which the winner stays in the league and the loser gets relegated. Everyone wants to avoid that. Gummer had some great home games, Magedburg and Hannover have wins, Fuchse draw, and wins in almost all the games they had to win, apart from Bergischer in the aforementioned game. Goppingen are under no pressure and in fine form but they are without quite a few players. Granted, they played without them in the last few games as well but Sesum played all of those. Goppingen won 4 out of 16 away games and even though those 4 were against bottom-table teams and relevant for today, things are different now. They are under no pressure here and this is a good tip. Difference in motivation can do a lot as we saw last week in many games - Goppingen vs Flensburg, Gummer's first half in Berlin, Stuttgart's win in Minden, Kiel's failure against Lowen, Lemgo's win over Wetzlar. Details

We often saw some really fast-paced games at these tournaments in the previous years but, as a rule, at least one German team was in those games. There are no Germans here, no Kielce, no PSG and that makes it all better for this tip. The Balkan-Spanish handball school we will see here is much different than the German or Scandinavian ones.
Granted, both of these teams can play fast and playing fast is what they want after their defense gets the ball but everything needs to be put into perspective. Flensburg are faster than both home and Vardar managed to play great defense and Sterbik did great to keep them under control. It was 26-24 in the end, the second leg is not important as it fell apart in the end. Barcelona has 4 unders with Kiel, two with Veszprem, which is relevant. There are many results on both sides which aren't. This is just one game on neutral grounds and those are the circumstances we didn't have this season. What is crucial here is tactics. Barca's offense can be controlled through top-level defense and Vardar has the defense and the goal keeper who are top level. On the other hand, Barca's physically powerful defense is their strong suit. Together with a great goal keeper, we have everything we need for this tip.
I expect this to be very close and that teams will get around 23-24 goals respectfully. Details

Even though Repeša is one of the biggest coaching frauds in Europe, we'll bet not on him but on his team. Who ever saw the first two in Milano and the third one in Trento and who knows basketball will quickly understand why. Milano seemed horrible away. I was especially impressed by lack of will in some of their players. When you have such body language and such approach, the defeats are inevitable. Faced with 0-2 they came to Trento where they already won by 20 earlier in the season. Milano were different from the start. They played a physical game (21-11 first Q) and when they do that, the rivals struggle to get points. Not many teams can put up with that. Trento cannot do that. Milan broke them through defense. When you play a game starting with defense, the offense is not a problem either. It ended at 87-66, which alongside the 92-74 from the first part of the season, makes me take this tip. Everything else that happened in the season is irrelevant. I'm only sorry Dragic is not there (more than Simon) because they would have even more muscle with him on. But the game from the third game against Trento who are with 7 players should see Milano win this easily. Details

It was difficult to choose between all the under options, overall, half-time or some version of the team under at halftime (Valencia 38.5 too high). Because of the 'king' Pinnacle, and elsewhere available halftime, we will go with halftime overall. So 73.5... Their first head-to-head in the series was at 41-26, Barca demolished the second one by halftime, and they went over with 49-32. Their head-to-head in the championship 35-29 here, one point over, and we have an important game from the Copa del Rey final, played at Vitoria, and Barca had 38-29 lead. There are a lot of facts that Valencia are critical in elimination games, especially at home where they lost the Eurocup final and the Euroleague ticket (halftime with Unicaja 33-30) and we have 44-22 from the previous series, third game against Hapoel at home, which is not a minus for me, because of the Israeli (the first game of the series 36-35 at halftime in Valencia). The third home game against Khimki was at 39-34 at halftime. We also have the last round against Murcia where they ruined their position (27-26). Barca are defensively good, but they are struggling offensively. This game is a chance to save the season for both teams, and in my opinion the halftime will be under 70 points. Barca have 10 out of 15 Euroleague away games under 73.5 and two at 74... Details

The Estonian team made it through the final, Kalev are in the 2-0 lead. Rapla beat Tartu Rock in semis 3-1. Tartu were in the final since 2033, cities of Taru and Talinn were in the finals 91 times in 92 seasons. It happened only once that neither of those two cities were in the finals. Rapla ended that and now enjoy the final series.
The fact Kalev lost to Tartu for spot 3 in the Baltic league says they are not total underdogs. Kalev won over Tartu away. In the last round of regular season, Kalev beat Tartu 71-69 before the playoffs.
The margin is set at 149,5 today. THe first two final games finished at 124-147. Kalev had 143 and 144 home against defense-oriented Parnu, 143 away.
Rapla had 130, 128, 146 and 154 against Tartu in semis.
Rapla and Kalev played a lot of h2h games this season. Two final games, as I said 147 and 124. Two in regular season 82-66 for Rapla and 80-77 for Kalev. Both were played at Rapla's arena. The last quarter of the second finished at 34-27. That first win was the first round of the season when Kalev were without problems and much better offensively. Two important guards are no longer on the team. Also, we have the cup game which Kalev won 82-55.
I don't see any reason for the margin to be set this high. Rapla won't give up, they are pretty modest on the offensive end and this could be tough again. Details

The handicap is a bit lower today (17,5) than before the game in Moscow (around 25), probably because of the fact this is played away, even though I don't know what that means. First of all, CSKA are a machine and it's not that important where they play. Second of all, Astana's games are not attended by a lot of people. CSKA want to get this over with and I think they will win by at least 20. Since their less talented players will most likely play the final part of the game, the first half handicap is a better choice (9,5). The point difference in the first game was 24 by half time, 13 in the second one.
Astana have -18 against Khimki, -19 against Zenit, -23 against Lokomotiv, -10 against CSKA and -19 against UNICS home. The point difference here should be 15 by half time. Details

I'll go with the handicap at Olympiacos. They won the first one by 15 points and did better in Istanbul after the defeat in the second one. That convinced me they're a level above Efes. They were down by 17 in the third quarter of the second game and everyone wrote them off but they managed to get the shot for overtime. In the 4th game, faced with knock out, they were down by 13 in the second quarter and ended up winning by 13. On top of that, they were up by 7 with 5 minutes to go. Efes didn't beat them, Oly lost the game. That only makes me more convinced about this game. Their defense controlled Efes' three point shooting, Efes struggle with offense, they have no good players in this series, apart for Dunston and Granger. Oly dominated 90 percent of the series through defense. Today will be no different and I expect them to win this easily. Efes struggled with away games in Euroleague (7-10). Eight of those 10 defeats were by over 6,5 points. Oly are 12- home, 11 of those 12 were by over 6,5. Details

The margin is at 153,5 and may be a few points too high. Two out of four head-to-head games went over but those two were blowouts. The one here finished at 77-69, the last one in Piraeus at 73-71. An even better option is Efes at under 77,5. I really don't see them going over that. They were under in all 4 h2h games. They won the last one 73-71 with a lot of luck and lack of caution by the Greeks, who do a good job stopping Brown. Efes' guards aren't a major factor here, only Dunston is in the paint. Brown and Thomas basically don't exist due to their inability to play defenses like these and the fact Perasovic cannot play without Honeycutt.
The Greeks are still convinced they will go through and I'm convinced as well (the win at 2,15 is a good choice as well). The team under comes from that and the fact it's smartest to play at Oly's top segment - defense.
I don't talk much about numbers from 30 games of regular season because that is basically irrelevant now. The most important is the impression from the h2h games and this series. It says Efes have to work hard for every point. Details

I'm going with the same tip at BSV. They will not slip this time. Last weekend they were without three players and still had a 2-3-point lead in the second half. They beat Holstebro before this and are to decide on their own faith. Damgaard and Oris Nilesen are back, the important defense player Jensen is on the team. They are now the team that beat Kiel away and played close games with Veszprem and Flensburg. Holstebro beat Mors by 7 here, BSV had the lead for about 90 percent of the game against Hostebro on Wednesday and ended up winning. They will win this too. Mors have -7 Holstebro and -7 Ribe in playoffs, apart from that surprise agianst BSV. Earlier in the season, they have -11 Skjern, +3 BSV (BSV had a 3-goal lead and attack 49 minutes into the game, their approach was not right because of CL), Holstebro -1, Aalborg -10 in the league, Kolding -5, Aalborg in the Cup-7... I expect 4-5 for the defending champions here. Details

The Argentines play nearly as many games as the NBA teams. Regular season is coming to an end, Hispano are in a great race with Boca Juniors to stay in the league. They are currently in the penultimate spot in the Southern Division, two wins ahead of Boca but with a bad h2h record. There are 8 games left, including this one. They will not face Boca again. La Union Formosa are in the other division and are one of the rare teams with nothing to fight for. They cannot reach the playoffs, cannot get relegated. During the season, the important player Jose Vargas left the team and they didn't acquire anyone instead, probably because they know nothing can change anyway. Their results lately are in accordance with that too. They lost 10 straight away games and have 2-16 in the last 18 away games. They lost to Hispano home by 10, back when Vargas was still on the team. Hispano hired a new coach since. Capelli had his debut on the 23rd of February. They lost in over time but in March, they won 5 straight games (including the one of April 1st). Among those wins is the one over top table San Lorenzi. They managed to get ahead of Boca and acquired two players from this league who have fought to avoid relegation before (Zilli, Ferreyra). Before that, they acquired O'Bannon (former Zvezda, Rethymno, Rishon LeZion, Lukoilu, Haifa player). This team is now better than it used to be when it beat La Union by 10 away. Capelli wanted progress in defense, which he got. Other than handicap, a good option here is team under at visitors (La Union went over 76 once in the last 6 away games (77 in the 102-77 defeat). La Union cannot wait for the season to end, Hispano are fighting for survival here and cannot afford a slip, especially since Boca won 2 out of last 3 and are now breathing down their necks. Details

I expect an efficient game, even more than their first one (90-75). That's how Brose are playing at home, and Galatasaray can keep it up. This is the last round, nobody wants to get injured, they'll be playing for the audience, and 161.5 looks like a good deal.
Brose went over in 10 of 14 home games, Galata in 5 of 14 on the road, but what matters is that they went over against Maccabi and Milano, and those games can be compared to this one, next to their duel in Istanbul when Brose hit 90. The Turks lost a home game to Baskonia last week, 103-80, and then beat Usak on the road 95-88. No doubt that they can keep up with Brose, especially in a carefree game like this one. Details

Chicago and Indiana are ranked at the 7th and 8th place, with 38-40. Miami are under the line with 37-40, Charlotte right behind with 36-42. Whoever loses this game can kiss goodbye their chance for the playoff. Charlotte have to play Boston still, and will travel to Milwaukee and Atlanta. All three teams are fighting for something. Miami will have to face Toronto and Washington on the road, the two are fighting for the third place, and then they have Cleveland and Washington at home. So, it's hard to tell who's got the tougher schedule, Charlotte or Miami.
This is basically a playoff match in a regular season, and we'll go under 207 points. They played four duels this season so far, one in the pre-season ended at 184, the only one in Charlote at 173. I have to explain the 208 one - Miami were bursting with confidence after beating Cleveland two times in three days, and one quarter had 68 points (none of the other 11 periods in their three duels went over 59, one had 59 in that same game, and nothing else over 51). Miami's first scorer was Waiters with 24 points, but he's out today. Miami and Charlotte played the playoff last season, the first two in Miami at 220, then all the other five under 200. Three in Charlote 176, 174, 187. Miami had 25 unders in the road games this season, one exactly at 207 and 12 overs, Of those 13 that weren't under, most of them were irrelevant, like against Houston, Lakers, Washington, Brooklyn, Sacramento, two against Boston who are the first team of the East, when they allowed 120. The only big one that stands out and is hard to explain was the one against the best defense of the league, 221 against Utah. But that's one of 38. The main thing here is that Miami aren't as talented offensively as most of the league, and they've got no Waiters today, and Charlotte's defense were great when guarding Dragić (22p, 6/13; 5p 2/11; 14p, 4/12) and Whiteside (20p, 8/11; 8p, 4/7; 10p, 4/7), Miami's key players. The margin is this high because Charlotte have a bunch of crazy numbers at home, but with a detailed analysis, it's easy to point out the games against Phoenix, Cleveland, Denver, Golden State, Sacramento, some blowout games, a bunch of them irrelevant for today. So, those 19 unders and 20 overs don't really look that bad. Their home game against Miami went at 173, and comparing that with similar quality, there's Detroit at 201 and 164, Indiana 222 and 188, both blowouts, Atlanta 195 and 196 (the most relevant opponent), Toronto 191 and 224, Memphis 195, Portland 192, Dallas 184... For me, this game will end under 200 points and it should be picked. Details

Four straight defeats have set off all kinds of alarms in Brescia and lowered the expectations. They cannot complaicete this game. We want to be aggressive against Vaserta and we need good approach. That's what their coach said.
They conceded 68 to Venezia and 77 to Sassari in Cup finals and limited Sassari to 48 earlier. One of the key defenders Moss is back and they will do well defense-wise.
The main reason for this pick is Caserta. They were a team with 78 points on average with Sosa and without Sosa, their average is 67. Sosa scored 28 in the first one.
Last week they got limited to 58 against Venezia and Bostic, who is very important, won't play today.
The last 8 away games are: 71, Trento 66, Pistoia 64, Reggio 76, Sassari 77 (lost 18), Brindisi 72 (izgubili 28), Torino 77, Venezia 70. Out of all those numbers Sosa (19,3p, 5,9a, 32 minutes ) didn't play only against Capo. That means they were weak away even with him. Details