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The Netherlands and Italy met 4 times in the last year and the Dutch won all 4 meetings, 3 of which in straight sets. They won one of them 3-1 -this year in Grand Prix in a match Italy hosted in Bari. The best player at Italy was Dious (23 points) but she is not in Rio. I think Bonitta made a mistake by not taking her here because she can be unstoppable on a good day. It was obvious that Bonitta doesn't trust his team when he asked the 36-year-old settler Lo Bianco to join the team just a months before Rio. What she said after that match suggested that something was not right on the Italian team. They put up too poor performances here so far and haven't gotten a single set yet. They were expected to make progress against China but they played the second match even worse than the first one against Serbia. Overall, they are doing badly here and haven't done much better in test games before Rio. I'm sure they will not get better today against a team which does not suit them at all. Italy are far from good form and even if they had that, the Dutch would have still been favorites here.
Alongside the win from Bari, the Dutch beat Italy 3-0 in OG qualifier in May. It was a convincing win by 19 points. The Dutch won in European qualifiers semifinal in January in Turkey as well. Diouf scored team-high 17 points at Italy back then but the Dutch won by 12 points in total. And finally, the meeting at EC last season was dominated by the Dutch, who won by 20 points in total. They have so far beaten China in Rio (Italy lost to China in straight sets) and lost to the US in 5 sets. The Dutch left a great impression and displayed rapid progress since Guidetti took over. Italy, on the other hand, don't seem good at all. If the Dutch won 3 points against Italy in each of the previous 4 games, there is no reason anything should be different now. They're in great form, while Italy aren't.