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If this was a clay court match last season, not necessarily at RG, I maybe wouldn't go with this tip but given the circumstances, I need to go with this margin. Serena took the title in Rome. She didn't play her top game but she played Kuznetsova at 12 games and Begu at 17. Last year she was at 15 in the first match after Wimbledon with Bonaventura, with Errani at 16 at RG, with Suarez at 16 earlier that season, Bregle at 13, Lim 15 the year before at RG, Errani at 15 in Rome, Zhang 16, Suarez 17 in Madrid, Bencic 15, three years ago at RG Tatishvili at 13, Vinci at 16, Errani at 13. Why am I mentioning just some names and not all of them? Because of her opponent. Pereira might be most similar to Errani in style. To talk about Keys, McHale, Friesdam, Sharapova, Kuznetsova and some more aggressive players doesn't make much sense. The Brazilian is not her level. She is not at the level of most players we mentioned before but the style matters here. Pereira has not met someone's of Serena's level on clay court so far. Not even close. Knapp beat her in a match at 17 games, Kanepi 18, Rodina 18, Cirstea 20 (the second set finished 7-5), Riske 18, Puig 15, Hantuchova 17, Rogowska 16 (Pereira had the role of the favorite), Oprandi 17 (as an underdog). Babos had 6-0 in one set (the odds at the Hungarian were over 3,50). Martic beat her in straight sets as an underdog (4,20 at Martic). Serena trashes players like the Brazilian as a rule while Periera loses to players who are not even close to Serena. Serena's straight sets win would be a good choice here too (Serena is 58.14 in such matches on clay court over the last 5 years even though she lost 5 sets here last season, while Perrera is 8-15).
Serena failed to get the US Open title and the same happened at AO. She talked about the focus she has on RG when arriving in Rome. Her motivation is enourmous here and she wants win more GSs than anyone else. Pereira was not where she was last season and Serena couldn't have asked for better draw. If Serena embarrasses herself against Periera everything she talked about ahead of RG will be in vain...