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The fate of Spaniards is in their own hands

In spite of losing, Italy's fate is in their hands, but Spain need to win to be sure, although Croatia beating Greece is just as good

Italy lost to Croatia, but the defeat brought them the quarter-finals. As paradoxical as it sounds, Greece’s defeat to Slovenia pushed the Italians in to the Europe’s top 8, so they did not sound very down stricken by their defeat.

- We started the game marvelously, with great pace and defense.  By the end of the second quarter we let them develop their tactics, but I think that the beginning of the second part of the match was crucial. We missed 3,4  shots but all in all it was a great match decided by nuances; lost ball, missed cert, foul on offense. I must say that the better team won- Pianigiani commented in Italian press.

Missing a certain point and a foul on the offense refers to Cusin. The Italians bounced back in the last quarter, thanks to brilliant Datome (13 points in the last quarter), to just -4 score (70-66), but Cusin missed a slam dunk, then fouled setting a screen and that spelled defeat for Italy.  

- We are among the top 8, which is like a dream come true. We are a single victory away from World Championship in Spain, but for that we need to be perfect for the full 40 minutes. We tend to blackout, and that has to go away by quarter-finals. Pianigiani said.

They have team Spain to worry about today. Defeat means that the Italians will be fourth, which leads them in to quarter finals against team Serbia, and in case they win they will be third and play Lithuania. But this Eurobasket is so unpredictable that everybody can beat anybody and the position from which a team goes to quarterfinals is almost unimportant.

- Team Spain needs to win or will be sent home, so they will give a 100%. They are very talented, especially on their attack, but their biggest asset is definitely Marc Gasol, the best center here, who can point, but also be the playmaker from a high post. - were the few words Piangiani said about Spain and Gasol who will certainly cause problems in the Italian lines.

It is clear that Cusin and Mielli will have a lot on their hands, and Piangiani could go for zone defense that he often used during the preparations. The Italians are in the next stage so he may decide to rest his best for a bit, not too much, since the Greeks coach is Italian and they know it. Also, everybody would profit from team Spain being sent home since they are in spite of everything the biggest favorites here.

Nobody expected Spain to be in such a position in the last round. Their mistakes against Slovenia and Greece put them in a position where they depend on Croatia to beat Greece, or in case of Greeks winning they will have to beat Italy.

Today’s match will be characteristic by many duels whose outcome will decide the winner. Belinelli, Gentile, Datome need an inch of open space to hurt their opponent and the same goes for Llullo, Rudy, Calderon. Since Spain’s defense is obviously stronger the main showdown will be between the offenses.

For keeping Datome, who is a mismatch for almost everybody on the tournament, I expect Mumbru, whom Orenga tends to field as a 4 although he usually plays a 3.

- I will play what the coach decides. We might have played better up to now, but there is a feeling of improvement, with each game, and the important thing is to show that tomorrow from minute one. We know our worth and our potential, but in order to realize that we need to pass an obstacle at a time -Mumbru said.

Coach Orenge has Lulls´ injury to worry about, nothing serious but enough to stop him from playing today, in a game where he will be sorely needed against Italy’s formidable outer line, against which team Spain will have to mount its traditional, tough defense.

- We must impose a tough defense from the start; we must not let them develop their gameplay. Their players are fast and mobile and we will have to move fast in order to guard everybody. -

Orenga is naturally aware of Italians height issue, but he claims they compensate for that:

- They contract in a box very quickly and it’s almost impossible to breach them, so we need a fast pass through Gasol who should create some opportunities for us. -

Coach is also aware that if Croatia beats Greece, his team is in quarter finals no matter the outcome of this match, but he shuns talking about it. 

- I’m honestly not interested. We need to beat Italy, no matter the other matches for the sake of the atmosphere in the team and of course for the sake of ranking.-

In case of Croatia and Spain both winning things could get really complicated, since then France will be the opponent in the quarterfinals. No matter their score in the last year it is hard to believe that Spain is looking forward to meeting the team which is their main competitor for the title in an elimination match. Calculated play is a danger here.

I do not believe in Italians putting up a fight. Even if they beat Spain, which is highly unlikely, the victory would not result in anything special. On the contrary, third place means taking on Lithuania, a tougher option than Serbia, while the fourth means quarter finals in two days’ time, then a day’s rest before the semifinals, and being third means they will have to play a match every day. Spain always stress the importance of this match, looking at Italy as „Belinelli+Datome“. Belinelli is playing well in Ljubljana, but not as efficiently as in Kopar. Against Slovenia 3/15 in game and 11 points, and Croatia 3/7 and 9 points. Spain have the best defense on the tournament, they play an aggressive game, and have several solutions for Belinelli. I think Ricky will guard him, and San Emeterio can take over, he is good in defense. This tip will pay of, firstly because Belinelli is expected not to play the whole match and secondly I repeat, I don t believe the Italians will put up a fight here.