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I don't understand why the odds are so high for something that happens 70% of the season, but that applies to both sides. The overtimes aren't calculated into this bet, so without counting the goals from those, Ugra went over this margin in 5 of 19 matches, and Amur conceded over two goals in five of 17 matches. Yes, Ugra are high up on the league table right now, but it's an illusion to think they'll stay there, and even more so to think they've got the quality for it. They are the ones with the negative goal difference in this situation. They score two goals per match, and went to three only once in the last six, staying at the zero twice, and twice at one goal, so it's clear how they win their matches - with the defense. Another interesting statistic is that the home team shoot to the goal only 22 times per match, not enough, and less than their opponent today. Also, the guests are in the top 10 defenses this season, conceding two goals per match, and are also in the top five with their penalty kick (89%). Amur don't have offensive quality either, so they rely on their defense a lot, lead by the goalie Metsola who has the excellent 93.5% saves, one of the best in the league. Also, Ambur have a great defensive form, and didn't concede over two goals in the last six matches, including two when they had a shut out, and three where they left their opponent with a single goals scored. Both teams are playing defensively, and the odds are overblown for Ugra, because they're a team on the same level as Amur, and can deal with them. So, the under for the home team is a great pick because the odds defy statistics, and Ugra's game. They don't crush their opponents. Also, the home team's fourth scorer of the season is injured, Medvedev (4+2).