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James Harden's performances have been a bit like Allen Iverson's but not in a positive way, with all due respect to the legendary 76ers player. It's clear that Matthews is stirring up a lot of trouble for him as witnessed in 35% field goal for the Beard and 11/41 for three-points. Why go for an over then? All things aside, the Rockets cannot win this one without a good performance from their best player who is likely produce another one of his vintage performances. In addition, even though he couldn't hit the wide side of a barn, he went over this margin in 3 out of 4 games (27,18,37,28), albeit with a massive ball consumption (28,19,35,21) and he took 31 free throws and scored 27. I find it hard to believe that the best offensive player in the league will have a terrible efficiency for the fifth game in a row and there can be no better motivation than the tie-breaker. Details

To be honest, I expected Tony Parker (21,12,19,10) to dominate this series but it hasn't happened so far. At the start, he was unstoppable for Jose Calderon in the first half but then coach Carlisle put Shawn Marion on him who managed to keep the Frenchman away from the basket and forced him into jump shots. Parker's left ankle injury from the last game could be an additional problem as he lost his agility. Even though the Spurs say he is officially doubtful for tonight, I have no doubt he will play, but Popovich will not force him unless he sees that he can get a good results from him up front. The Mavs attack Parker as much as they can as Pop is aware of that so the point guard might not be the primary focus of their game today. Except an under for total number of points, it's good to go for under 6 assists (6,3,6,3). Details

I will go against the flow here, but there's good reason for that. This is the decisive game for the Rockets, defeat is not an option so I think James Harden will get a lot of balls. True, he did play two very poor games in which he got a total of 45 points with a disastrous 14/46 field goal but I think he is one of the best attackers in the league and it's hard to see him missing like that throughout the whole series. In the last game, the Rockets didn't have offensive rhythm as they kept pushing the ball to the post to Howard and that caused Parson's production to suffer so I expect coach McHale to attack the Blazers' defense through Harden and his main asset (apart from 3-pointers) is winning a lot of free throws and assists. Matthews has won the first two battles against the Beard but I don't think he will win the third. Details

I'm doing a bet I played a few days ago once again, so there is no need to explain much. Jonas Valanciunas is practically the only real center in this series, which he amply uses on both sides of the court. In the first game it took him 35 minutes to score 17 points and get 18 rebounds, 13 of which on defense, and in the second one he got 15 points in the same period on court, plus another 14 rebounds, 5 of which on offense. His domination in the paint is not so surprising since the Nets are playing with a small starting five (Pierce as number 4), and their centers are not huge guys like Dwight Howard for instance. Of course, luck will be a factor here, but judging from what we've seen so far, the Raptors center should get a lot of rebounds once again. Details

DeAndre Jordan has made excellent progress in all segments of the game and the fact that his rebound tally was in double digits in all but o out of 84 games is amazing, and that's counting the game against the Blazers which he ended after only one minute (he wanted to continue his run of games played). If we're gonna split hairs, he went over this margin 69 times. On average, he got 13.6 rebounds and he got 14 in the first game against the Warriors. He stayed at only 9 in the second game but that was only because he played 30 minutes due to blowout. Tonight, the Clippers will have a hard time winning the game and I'm sure Jordan will keep on making the best out of Bogut's absence to make this a winning bet. Details

Roy Hibbert was expected to dominate this series, especially after his performances in the playoff last year when he had All-Star figures (20+10), but that did not happen now. In fact, he's as weak as he's been for the past few months. To explain the reason for this bet, I will start with his terrible attacking efficiency. The Pacers tried to solve that by resting him but that didn't yield the effect they wanted. His poor form continued in the playoffs and he only got 8 points and 8 rebounds in 30 minutes of the first game (4/9), while he scored six points and got 4 rebounds after 6 minutes less in the second game an. Since Antić kept him out of the pain in the first game, Vogel tried to hide Hibb next to Millsap but that didn't give the desired effect and he spent the best part of the game on the bench. Since I don't think much has changed in two days, I don't expect to see him inspired today, especially not in terms of rebounds. Apart from the match-up, the stats also speak in favor of this bet as he has gone over this margin in only 4 games since January 1st (38 games), and not once in last 11 games. Details

The first game proved what was clear even before the series started: LaMarcus Aldridge will "wipe the floor" with Terrence Jones. In the 45 minutes he spent on court he scored 46 points with 17/31 shooting from the field, and got 18 rebounds, of which seven on offense. The talk of double-teaming don't worry me much, nor does Omar Asik's enthusiasm (of course he will speak up after he got 12 minutes in the first game and guarding LMA guarantees more time on the court). Whomever the Rockets put on Aldridge, he will have a classic mismatch, so I'm convinced he will dominate the entire series. Of course, he will hardly manage to repeat the performance he had on Sunday, and might have a bad game, but the point is this hinges more on him than on the Rockets, as they still failed to find a solution for him in the first game although his regular season performance against them was 28 (10/27), 27 (11/26), 31 (12/22) and 21 points (9/19). Details

As hard a time as the Rockets will have guarding Aldridge, the Blazers will have it equally tough guarding Howard, but that is not the only reason for this pick. Terry Stotts does not shy from using the "hack at Howard" tactic to disturb the Rockets' pace, which partially paid off in the first game, as Howard made 9 of his 17 free throw attempts. He ended the game with 27 points and 9/21 shooting from the field, and he pointed out himself in the preview that he'd like to get more attempts and that the Rockets should play inside out. The margin is pretty high, but I think it goes along with the tendency towards 210-220 point games in this series. Besides, Howard usually went over it during the regular season. Details

Unfortunately for the Bobcats, Big Al's injury ruined what little chance they had of making life complicated for the defending champions, but it might bring s some joy. As Jefferson can no longer carry the team, I expect Kemba Walker to take the lead. On Sunday he scored 20 points on Heat with modest 6/15 shooting including 3/6 for three points, and I expect at least the same tonight as Jefferson is injured and Henderson won't be able to do anything against Wade. Details

Jonas Valanciuas is basically the only proper center in this series. KG is in that position because of his age, Blatche too, while Plumlee simply doesn't spend enough time in the game. The Lithuanian is always around the basket, and his possibilities in rebound are more than good. In the first game, he recorded 17 points and 18 rebounds, 13 of which defensive. I expect him to be just as dominant in that aspect for the rest of the series. There's also the possibility that the majority of balls bounce away from him, but given what we saw in the first game and throughout the season, I think Val will get possession almost always following missed shots by the Nets. Details

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Given the situation, I really think this doesn't need much explanation. The Suns probably cannot afford to lose till the end of the season, maybe one defeat only would do, and today's game is particularly important. Because, the Pelicans are definitively an easier opponent than the Spurs, Mavs, and Grizzlies, the team they meet afterwards. If they win tonight, they can basically kiss the play off goodbye - winning the remaining three games will be tough, not to mention that two of those three teams are their direct rivals for the remaining two positions. The Suns came to New Orleans doing great, having won 8 out of the last 10 games. On the other hand, the Pelicans are on a five-game losing run (each game was lost by at least 4 points; 12,2 on average). Besides, their top player Anthony Davis might not play, and even if he does, he won't be even close to his best performances. Even with him doing his best, the Suns beat the Palicans by 12, 7, and 6 points this season. A few more players who participated in those games won't be there tonight, and there's Davis with his problems. The visiting team will, on the other hand, be more motivated than ever, which makes me pretty certain about their win. Details

According to the latest information, it seems the Clippers will be without their quartet Griffin (24,0 p/g), Crawford (18,6), Granger (8,2), Reddick (15,7), who are "worth" at least 45-50 points. The Clippers will try to get the second spot but two weeks before the play-offs the health of their players is more important, especially for Griffin and Crawford (both officially doubtful), so i don't think they will be forced until they are 100% ready. Since Collison will have a hard time emulating his great game from Minneapolis, I think Chris Paul will take a bigger load in the attack and he's been in pretty solid form. He scored 31 in Dallas (9/18), 30 in Houston (10/16), 22 against the Wolves (6/16) and he spent at least 38 minutes in all of those games. Details

I was thinking about several options here but I've decided to go for Zack Randolph for several obvious reasons. The first one is his pretty good form in last four games which he ended with 21 (8/16), 25 (12/20), 18 (7/18) i 17 (7/11) points. His only under he has was against the Wolves when he only played for 28 minutes, while he played for at least 36 minutes in the remaining three games. The Jazz are struggling to protect their paint, as Drummond and Monroe showed a few nights before so I have no doubt this would be the case tonight as well and that the Grizzlies will focus on pushing the ball to the post. Z-Bo scored 22 (8/14)in the first game against the Jazz and 21 (8/16) in the second one a week ago. Details

Josh Smith spends way too much time on the court and fires off much too many shots for this margin to be realistic. It's true he stayed under four times in the last six games, but he fired of a combined 94 shots in those, making only 36 of them. Before the "crisis", he scored at least 15 points in nine of his ten game, while in the previous two Cavs matches he scored 25 (10/18) and 18 (7/15) points. The Pistons are still in the playoff race, so I have no doubt he will get his 35 minutes today, which will be enough for him to go over this margin in my opinion. Details

The 76ers have a run of 24 defeats and it's really hard to see them keeping up with the Spurs who have a run of 13 wins. If someone is known for resting the players and limiting their playing time, it's Gregg Popovich and I think that tonight's game might be similar to the recent game against the Lakers when Parker played for only 14 minutes, like Manu Ginobili while Tim Duncan played for 15 minutes. I think it's realistic to expect Parker to play for 20-25 minutes and it's not easy to score 20-something points in that time, all the more so as Michael Carter-Williams is a decent defensive player, at least in terms of rookie players. Details

I might have been able to deal with such underestimating of the Cavs if all the home team's players are fit and ready, which they're not. The Warriors can't count on Klay Thompson tonight, who's been scoring 17,9 points this season, with a three pointer efficiency of 41,2%. Their top player Stephen Cury is not even close to doing his best. He's been struggling with a muscle injury for a while now, the same injury that prevented him from playing the last five minutes of the game against the Clippers. His average in the last six games is 14,5 points (not once over 19), which is significantly less than the season's average (23,2). His three pointer efficiency in that period is only 8/28, and he's been spending 27,5 minutes on the court on average (not once more than 32 minutes). If the injury affects his performance tonight (and it's not even certain he'll play at all), the Warriors' chances will diminish rapidly since they have one of the poorest benches in the league. On the other hand, the Cavs turned out to be one of this season's greatest disappointments, but it's high time they started winning if they want to stay in the battle for play off. They proved they can play in Phoenix, and given the fact almost all of their players are ready for this game (only Miles is missing), I believe they can at least give the Warriors a hard time. The win wouldn't surprise me either, though. Irving, Deng, Hawes, Waiters, Varejao, and others are definitely capable of pulling something like that off, especially if this turns out to be a slower pace game. Details

Al Jefferson might be playing the best basketball in his career, and he has been particularly impressive in last 2 and half months, which Nuggets saw on their own example as he scored 35 points in 32 minutes with a 13/24 field goal and 9/12 free throws. The Nuggets don't have a player to watch him except perhaps Mozgov, but judging by their first encounter, the Russian seems without a proper solution as well. In last 5 games, Jefferson has scored 25 (10/16), 38 (18/24), 34 (16/25), 28 (12/18) and 17 points(7/17). The only game in which he flopped in that period was against defensively minded Grizzlies against whom he played after spending 39 minutes on the court the night before. Since then, he has had more than enough time to recover so I don't think he will have any problems against defensively weak Nuggets. Details

After going over this margin in 15 of the previous 16 games, Blake Griffin stayed under in each of his last five (20,22,23,20,22), but I doubt he will continue in that vein. The Lakers' defense is disastrous, and the particularly good thing about it for this bet is that they have Wesley Johnson on the power forward, who is their best defense player by far, but physically also far inferior to Griffin, and I believe the Clippers will know how to punish this. Apart from a favorable matchup, the tempo of the game is also beneficial for us, as we should see plenty of easy points from counterattacks, which is the specialty of the Clippers' power forward, whom I see scoring much closer to 30 than 20 tonight. Details

Kevin Durant has scored at least 25 points in 25 games in a row but I really don't see a need for him breaking a sweat tonight. The Sixers are currently the worst team in the league and it would be a miracle if they match the hosts in the OKC for more than 2-2.5 periods. Apart from a blowout of perhaps epic proportions, I think Caraon Butler might decrease Durantula's playing time tonight as he will have his debut and he can't get a better chance to get tuned in than this. In the first game against the Sixers Durant spent 44 minutes on the court and scored 32 points and Westbrook didn't play then, while he is supposed to dominate today's game and Durant is expected to be the support if things don't go smoothly. It is clear that if he wants a KD, he can score 35, 40 or even more against any team, but I don't see a need for him to play a huge game tonight.. Details